Rudi Swanepoel. Fax:

Transcription

1 Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Month Close Change Last Change CME Corn Sep' /2 163/4 4781/4-31/4 CME Corn Dec' / /4-3 CME Corn Mar' /2 161/4 4821/2-2 CME Corn May' / /4-21/4 CME Corn Jul' /4 4961/2-21/2 CME Corn Sep' /4 151/4 5041/4 1 CME Corn Dec' /4 141/2 5041/2-41/4 Gold 07: Rand/Pound 07: Brent Crude 06: Rand/Euro 07: Rand/Dollar 07: Dollar/Euro 07: Net LAES SPO PRICES Overnight Market Net Rudi Swanepoel el: Fax: rudi@farmwise.co.za US CORN RECAP Morning Agricultural Market Report CME CORN FUURES MARKE RECAP Corn futures traded sharply higher on the day, led by gains in the December contract. he new crop contract traded up to 475 1/2 in the morning hours, backpedaled midday, and then closed near the highs. Current valuation has not been seen since August 1st. A warmer 5-7 day forecast for the northern Midwest and lack of rainfall has the trade nervous about how corn conditions and yields unfold to finish out this month. Additional support was due to the FSA releasing preventative planted acreage data that stated 3.4 million acres went unplanted. he August 12 report stated prevent plant was 255,080 acres vs. the final estimate FSA estimate of 257,300. he FSA will continue updating this data in the months ahead although historically there are no direct correlation between FSA and what NASS publishes for the official planted acreage. Weekly QCZ3 Cndl, QCZ3, rade 13/08/16, 4531 /2, 4753 /4, 4453 /4, 4693 /4 SMA, QCZ3, rade (Last), 13 13/08/16, 5095 /8+ SMA, QCZ3, rade (Last), 21 13/08/16, 51 /8+ CME DEC'13 CORN - WEEKLY SNAPSHO 16 August 13 10/03/12-13/10/18 (CHG) US CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M/Bu) Aug Aug Jul Aug (M Acres) USDA USDA USDA USDA Planting Acres Harvested Acres Yield (Bu/ Acre) Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports otal Supply Feed/Residual Food/Seed & Industry Ethanol otal Domestic Exports otal Usage Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 6.4% 15.4% 14.5% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 FUNDAMENAL CHARS 1/8

2 Commodity Option Future Main Board Net Volatility Month Close Change (%) SAFEX WMAZ FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Maize Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA No.3 Yellow Corn Gulf US No.3 Corn Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Month Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 Jul'14 Sep'14 SAFEX WMAZ Aug' R 30 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX WMAZ Sep' R 30 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX WMAZ Dec' R 30 Parity Change Up/Down R 52 R 61 R 59 R 60 R 59 R 54 SAFEX WMAZ Mar' R 30 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour n/a SAFEX WMAZ May' R 30 YMAZ Export Parity Randfontein (basis USA Corn) SAFEX WMAZ Jul' R 30 Month SAFEX YMAZ FUURES (Previous Close) Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 Jul'14 Sep'14 SAFEX YMAZ Aug' R 30 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX YMAZ Sep' R 30 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX YMAZ Dec' R 30 Parity Change Up/Down R 48 R 57 R 56 R 56 R 56 R 51 SAFEX YMAZ Mar' R 30 SAFEX Below Export Parity n/a SAFEX YMAZ May' R 30 YMAZ FOB Comparison R/ton SAFEX YMAZ Jul' R 30 Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 Jul'14 Sep'14 RSA MAIZE SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION ('000 tons) USA Corn FOB, New Orleans, Louisiana RSA YMAZ FOB, Durban Harbour Brazil Port FOB, Corn, weekly prices Argentina Port FOB, Corn, weekly prices Black Sea FOB, Corn, weekly prices Latest SAGIS Figures MAIZE EXPORS - Progressive 13/14 Season WEEKLY PRODUCER DELIVERIES ('000) Exported from Destined for 1Mar'13 - Plus Outstanding otal Commodity Less CEC RSA: Africa Overseas 28Feb'14 Retentions Crop WMAZ WMAZ YMAZ YMAZ otal otal PARIY GRAPH

3 Overnight Market Last Commodity Future Main Board Net Net Month Close Change Change CME SOYBEAN FUURES CME Soybeans Aug'13 CME Soybeans Sep' /4 183/ /4 CME Soybeans Nov' /2 261/ /4 21/4 CME Soybeans Jan' / /2 21/4 CME Soybeans Mar' / /4 41/4 CME Soybeans May' /4 131/ /4 51/2 CME SOY MEAL FUURES CME Soy Meal Aug'13 CME Soy Meal Sep' CME Soy Meal Oct' CME Soy Meal Dec' CME Soy Meal Mar' CME Soy Meal May' CME SOYBEAN OIL FUURES CME Soybean Oil Aug'13 CME Soybean Oil Sep' CME Soybean Oil Oct' CME Soybean Oil Dec' CME Soybean Oil Mar' CME Soybean Oil May' US SOYBEAN SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M Acres) Planting Acres Harvested Acres Yield (Bu/ Acre) Aug Aug Jul Aug USDA USDA USDA USDA US SOY RECAP CME SOY FUURES MARKE RECAP Soybean futures traded up double digits on the day and the Sept/Nov spread pushed lower, perhaps on some fresh farmer selling. Additional support was due to the FSA releasing preventative planted acreage data that stated 1.6 million acres went unplanted this year. he FSA will continue updating this data in the months ahead although historically there are no direct correlation between FSA and what NASS publishes for official planted acreage. Weather leans positive with a warmer and drier forecast over the next week to two weeks which is adding momentum to the upside. Export sales were extremely support for the new crop year but offered nothing for the old crop bulls. Net weekly export sales showed a cancelation of 10,500 tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,893,400 tonnes of new sales for the next marketing year. As of August 8th, cumulative sales stand at 47.5% of the USDA forecast for 13/14 versus a 5 year average of 30%. Weekly QSX3 Cndl, QSX3, rade 13/08/16, /4, 1272, 1183, /4 SMA, QSX3, rade (Last), 13 13/08/16, /4+ SMA, QSX3, rade (Last), 21 13/08/16, /2+ CME NOV'13 SOYBEAN - WEEKLY SNAPSHO FUNDAMENAL CHARS 10/03/12-13/10/18 (CHG) Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q /8 Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports Supply, otal Crushing Exports Seed/Residual Use, otal Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 4.0% 9.0% 6.9%

4 Option Commodity Future Main Board Net Volatility Month Close Change (%) SAFEX SUNFLOWER FUURES (Previous Close) South African Soy and Sunflower Recap oday's Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA SOYBEANS Opening USA SOYBEANS Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Call Month Aug'13 Sep'13 Nov'13 Jan'14 Mar'14 May'14 SAFEX SUNS Aug' R 50 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX SUNS Sep' R 50 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX SUNS Dec' R 50 Parity Change Up/Down R 0 R 97 R 123 R 1 R 111 R 94 SAFEX SUNS Mar' R 50 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour SAFEX SOYA FUURES (Previous Close) USA SOYBEANS Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein SAFEX SOYA Aug' R 50 Month SAFEX SOYA Sep' R 50 Aug'13 Sep'13 Nov'13 Jan'14 Mar'14 May'14 SAFEX SOYA Dec' R 50 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX SOYA Mar' R 50 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Latest SAGIS - MONHLY PRODUCER DELIVERIES Parity Change Up/Down R 0 R 97 R 123 R 1 R 111 R 94 PROG. JAN 13 - DEC 13 (tons) SAFEX Below Randfontein Commodity Farm Out- SOYBEANS Export Parity Durban Harbour Less CEC Retentions Deliveries standing Month SOYA Aug'13 Sep'13 Nov'13 Jan'14 Mar'14 May'14 SUNS R/ton (Current 07:00am) RSA SOYA AND SUNFLOWER SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Parity Change Up/Down R 0 R 86 R 109 R 106 R 98 R 83 SAFEX Below Export Parity PARIY GRAPH

5 Commodity Future Month Main Board Close Net Change Overnight Market Last CME WHEA FUURES CME Wheat Sep' / /4-3/4 CME Wheat Dec' /2 63/4 6483/4-3/4 CME Wheat Mar' /4 61/ /4 CME Wheat May' /4 53/4 6681/4-1 CME Wheat Jul' /4 53/ /4 CME Wheat Sep' / KCB WHEA FUURES Net Change KCB Wheat Sep' / KCB Wheat Dec' /4 31/4 7051/2-3/4 KCB Wheat Mar' /4 21/ /4 KCB Wheat May' / KCB Wheat Jul' /4 71/4 0 0 KCB Wheat Sep' / US WHEA SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M/Bu) Aug Aug Jul Aug (M Acres) USDA USDA USDA USDA Planting Acres Harvested Acres US WHEA RECAP CME WHEA FUURES MARKE RECAP Wheat futures traded higher into the closing bell and calendar spreads in KC and Chicago edged higher again. he corn market was up double digits in the wake of a warmer forecast over the next week that doesn't offer much rainfall. his prompted profit taking in long wheat vs. short corn spreads. While export sales continue to look positive, the trend of explosive sales is beginning to fade as China has shown no interest in the last couple of weeks but Brazil continues to buy. Net weekly export sales came in at 490,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 495,600. his was below market estimates and well below week ago levels. KC sales were huge again at 195,500 tonnes with a large portion heading to Brazil. Chicago sales continue to wither away with only 45,500 posted. Weekly QZWZ3 Cndl, QZWZ3, rade 13/08/16, 6471 /4, 658, 6351 /2, 6483 /4 SMA, QZWZ3, rade (Last), 13 13/08/16, 6865 /8+ SMA, QZWZ3, rade (Last), 21 13/08/16, 7015 /8 + CME DEC'13 WHEA - WEEKLY SNAPSHO 11/09/23-13/09/ (CHG) Yield (Bu/ Acre) Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports otal Supply Food Seed Feed/Residual otal Domestic Exports otal Usage Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 29.7% 24.1% 22.9% / Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 FUNDAMENAL CHARS

6 Commodity Option Future Main Board Net Volatility Month Close Change (%) SAFEX WHEA FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Wheat Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA HRW No.2 Wheat USA HRW No.2 Wheat Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Month Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 Jul'14 Sep'14 SAFEX Wheat Aug' R R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX Wheat Sep' R R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX Wheat Dec' R Parity Change Up/Down R 36 R 31 R 31 R 36 R 50 R 50 SAFEX Wheat Mar' R SAFEX Below Durban Harbour n/a n/a n/a USA HRW No.2 Wheat Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein Month Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 Jul'14 Sep'14 Latest SAGIS WHEA IMPORS / EXPORS ('12/'13) R/ton (Current 07:00am) Imported from: otal ons Destined for: R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) RSA Africa Overseas Parity Change Up/Down R 36 R 31 R 31 R 36 R 50 R 50 Overseas SAFEX Below Randfontein n/a n/a n/a Exported from: otal ons Destined for: Wheat Export Parity Randfontein Africa Overseas Month Overseas Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 Jul'14 Sep'14 RSA R/ton (Current 07:00am) R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Parity Change Up/Down R 29 R 25 R 25 R 29 R 42 R 41 SAFEX Below Export Parity n/a n/a n/a RSA WHEA SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION PARIY GRAPH

7 2 Weekly Precipitation Forecast Weather Forecasts : Africa Daily Precipitation Forecast - 17-Aug-13 Daily Precipitation Forecast - 18-Aug-13 IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts Daily Precipitation Forecast - 19-Aug-13

8 2 Weekly Precipitation Forecast Weather Forecasts : North America Soil Moisture Outlook Weekly Precipitation Palmer Drought Index

9 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX DEC'13 WMAZ - DAILY RSI, QMAWZ3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/15, Cndl, QMAWZ3, rade 13/08/15, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QMAWZ3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/15, , StochS, QMAWZ3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/15, , StochS, QMAWZ3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/15, , January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13

10 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX DEC'13 YMAZ - DAILY RSI, QMAYZ3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/15, Cndl, QMAYZ3, rade 13/08/15, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QMAYZ3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/15, , StochS, QMAYZ3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/15, , StochS, QMAYZ3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/15, , Nov 12 December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13.12

11 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX DEC'13 WMAZ vs. CORN DEC'13 (Corn Split) - Daily MACD, Spread(QCORZ3, QMAWZ3), 13, 21, 5, Exponential 13/08/15, , Spread, QCORZ3, rade (Last), QMAWZ3, rade (Last), 1.0, /08/15, SMA, Spread(QCORZ3, QMAWZ3), 5 13/08/15, SMA, Spread(QCORZ3, QMAWZ3), 13 13/08/15, RSI, Spread(QCORZ3, QMAWZ3), 14, Exponential 13/08/15, Nov 12 December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13

12 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME DEC'13 CORN - DAILY RSI, QCZ3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/16, Cndl, QCZ3, rade 13/08/16, /4, /4, 469, 470, -2 1 /4, (-0.48%) 2MA, QCZ3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/16, /4+, / StochS, QCZ3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/16, , StochS, QCZ3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/16, , December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13 1/8

13 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX DEC'13 WHEA - DAILY RSI, QWEAZ3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/15, Cndl, QWEAZ3, rade 13/08/15, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QWEAZ3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/15, , StochS, QWEAZ3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/15, , StochS, QWEAZ3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/15, , January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13

14 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME DEC'13 WHEA - DAILY RSI, QZWZ3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/16, Cndl, QZWZ3, rade 13/08/16, /4, /2, 648, 649, -0 1 /2, (-0.08%) 2MA, QZWZ3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/16, /8+, / StochS, QZWZ3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/16, , StochS, QZWZ3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/16, , December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August /8

15 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX SEP'13 SUNFLOWER - DAILY RSI, QSUFU3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/15, Cndl, QSUFU3, rade 13/08/15, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QSUFU3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/15, , StochS, QSUFU3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/15, , StochS, QSUFU3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/15, , Nov 12 December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13.12

16 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX SEP'13 SOYA - DAILY RSI, QMSOYU3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/15, Cndl, QMSOYU3, rade 13/08/15, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QMSOYU3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/15, , StochS, QMSOYU3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/15, , StochS, QMSOYU3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/15, , February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August

17 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME NOV'13 SOY - DAILY RSI, QSX3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/16, Cndl, QSX3, rade 13/08/16, /4, 1272, /2, /4, +2 1 /4, (+0.18%) 2MA, QSX3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/16, 16 3 /4+, StochS, QSX3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/16, , StochS, QSX3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/16, , December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August /8

18 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME NOV'13 SOYMEAL - DAILY RSI, QSMZ3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/16, USD Sn Cndl, QSMZ3, rade 13/08/16, 387.6, 389.9, 386.1, 388.6, +1.0, (+0.26%) 2MA, QSMZ3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/16, 364.3, USD Sn StochS, QSMZ3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/16, , StochS, QSMZ3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/16, , December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13.1 USD Sn

19 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK / USD - DAILY RSI, Q=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/16, /USD Cndl, Q=, Bid 13/08/16, , , , , , (-0.05%) 2MA, Q=, Bid(Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/16, , BarOHLC, Q=, Bid 13/08/16, , , , , , (-0.05%) 40 /USD StochS, Q=, Bid, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/16, , StochS, Q=, Bid, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/16, , February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13 USD / EUR - DAILY /USD 30 RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/16, USD Cndl, QEUR=, Bid 13/08/16, , , , , , (-0.04%) 2MA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/16, , USD StochS, QEUR=, Bid, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/16, , StochS, QEUR=, Bid, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/16, , December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13 4 USD 40

20 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK ICE BREN CRUDE - DAILY RSI, QLCOc1, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 13/08/16, USD Bbl Cndl, QLCOc1, rade 13/08/16, , , , , +0.14, (+0.13%) 2MA, QLCOc1, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 13/08/16, , StochS, QLCOc1, rade, 13, 3, Simple, 3 13/08/16, , StochS, QLCOc1, rade, 13, 5, Simple, 5 13/08/16, , December 12 January 13 February 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 August 13 USD Bbl USD Bbl F-wise Capital (Pty) Ltd is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange, and a wholly owned subsidiary of Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd Some text, images and any other material contained or displayed are proprietary to F-wise Capital (Pty) Ltd or Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd and constitutes valuable intellectual property intended for subscribers to services offered by F-wise Capital(Pty)Ltd or Farmwise Grains (Pty) Ltd. Any information provided in this report is for interest and educational purposes only, and does not constitute advice. F-wise Capital (Pty)Ltd or Farmwise Grains (Pty) Ltd will not be responsible for losses incurred as a result of the opinions expressed in this report. Since one deals in probabilities in market forecasting, the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. here is a risk of monetary loss in trading and/or investing on the financial markets. F-wise Capital (Pty) or Farmwise Grains (Pty)Ltd does not warrant the integrity of this communication or that it is free of errors, viruses, interception or interference. For more information about Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd or F-wise Capital(Pty)Ltd, visit our website at