AOF Forum Oilseeds Outlook October, 2006
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1 AOF Forum Oilseeds Outlook October, 2006 Josh Roberts Senior Trading Manager Grain Pool Pty Ltd 30 Delhi Street West Perth Tel: josh.roberts@grainpool.com.au
2 Oilseeds trends versus other grains
3 Harvested hectares (M ha) 5 yr avg / /06 Wheat Coarse Grains Rice Source: USDA 40% Oilseeds % 30% 20% 10% 9% 0% -10% 5-yr avg / /06 Wheat Coarse Grains Rice Oilseeds
4 Yield (mt / ha) 5 yr avg / /06 Wheat Coarse Grains Rice Source: USDA Oilseeds % 30% 30% 20% 10% 9% 0% 5-yr avg / /06 Wheat Coarse Grains Rice Oilseeds
5 Global production (MMT) 5 yr avg / /06 Wheat Coarse Grains Rice Source: USDA 80% 60% Oilseeds % 40% 20% 20% 0% 5-yr avg / /06 wheat coarse grains rice oilseeds
6 Oilseed trends
7 World oilseed production MMT yr avg (91-95) 2005/06 other groundnuts cottonseed sunseed rapeseed soybeans
8 (f) Global soybean production MMT US Sth America other
9 USA share of soybeans declining Source: ISTA Mielke, OIL WORLD Hamburg,
10 China is the key soybean importer Major Soybean Importers MMT EUROPEAN UNION EASTERN EUROPE FSU JAPAN MMT KOREA, REP OF TAIWAN MEXICO WORLD TRADE CHINA Source: Paul McAuliffe, World Commodity Analysis Corp.
11 But don t forget Argentina Source: ISTA Mielke, OIL WORLD Hamburg,
12 Canada canola disposals Source: ISTA Mielke, OIL WORLD Hamburg,
13 Carryout reducing in 06/07 Source: Paul McAuliffe, World Commodity Analysis Corp.
14 Things to watch Continued growth in ethanol production in the USA will require significant additional acres of corn. This has the potential to displace US soybean acres in 07/08 and beyond. If bio-diesel demand reaches projected levels globally, there will be a strong financial incentive to switch to softseeds at the expense of soybeans (and grains). But, softseeds can t grow acres fast enough; the best alternative source in the short term is soybeans (the world has plenty of soybeans). Where does all the meal go?? Argentina is the biggest meal and soyoil exporter; if they have a problem look out!
15 Oil trends
16 World oils & fats production MMT / /06 others (an. fats) PKO & CNO sun oil rape oil soyoil palm oil
17 Most of palm oil is exported Vegetable Oil Exports as a Share of Production 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1996/ /07 Soybean Oil Palm Oil Sunflowerseed Rapeseed Cottonseed Peanut Coconut Olive Palm Kernel All Vegetable Oils Source: Paul McAuliffe, World Commodity Analysis Corp.
18 World oil exports Palm dominates Source: ISTA Mielke, OIL WORLD Hamburg,
19 Things to watch Even with record stocks (1.7mmt palm oil and 1.4mmt soyoil), prices are trending higher. Rape oil prices in EU are at their highest level in 10 years. The market is looking beyond one year. Palm oil yields in Malaysia and Indonesia may be affected by El Nino. Lower yields and decreased exports (due to growth in domestic bio-diesel) could put significant pressure on other softseed prices. Canada will almost double its crush capacity from 3.7mmt to 6.5mmt.
20 Canola situation in Australia
21 '94-95 '95-96 '96-97 '97-98 '98-99 '99/00 '00/01 '01/02 '000 Tonnes '02/03 '03/04 '04/05 '05/06 '06/07 (f) Australian canola production Eastern Australia Western Australia
22 Apr - Sep rainfall (% of mean)
23 04/05. 06/07 (f). 04/05. 06/07 (f). 02/03. 1,000, , , , , ,000, , , , , /97. 98/99. 00/01. 02/03. 04/05. 06/07 (f). 96/97. 98/99. 00/01. 02/03. Australian canola production (mt) 1,000, , , , , ,000, , , , , /97. 98/99. 00/01. 02/03. 04/05. 06/07 (f). 96/97. 98/99. 00/01.
24 Australian canola production 2006/07 561,000 45, ,000 91, ,000 Prod n Yield 943, , , , ,000 Planted Hectares 2005/06 1,439, , , , ,000 Prod n Yield 960, , , , ,000 Planted Hectares 580, , ,000 30,000 50,000 Crush Capacity Total NSW VIC SA WA State Source: AOF
25 Things to watch How will the market address the deficit in the Eastern States? Imports of seed from Canada? Trans-shipments from WA? Importing oil(s)? All of the above??
26 Bio-diesel trends
27 Global bio-diesel capacity (MMT) Source: ISTA Mielke, OIL WORLD Hamburg,
28 Bio-fuels a major factor in oil use
29 European bio-diesel production 3.0 Germany Italy France UK others 2.5 MMT (est) Source: European Biodiesel Board
30 EU-25 rapeoil consumption (MMT) Source: ISTA Mielke, OIL WORLD Hamburg,
31 EU has become a net oil importer Source: ISTA Mielke, OIL WORLD Hamburg,
32 Crude oil vs soy oil (US cents / lb) Source: Paul McAuliffe, World Commodity Analysis Corp.
33 Relative cost per MMBTU Source: Paul McAuliffe, World Commodity Analysis Corp. (WCA)
34 Things to watch Malaysia & Indonesia expanding their bio-diesel production. There are varying opinions but over time, they could use 6-12 of their 35mmt palm oil. (4 yrs to grow trees, but only 18 months to build bio-diesel plants) EU can t grow their production capacity quickly enough and will need to become larger importers of raw material (e.g. soy, palm) for both food and fuel. At some point, they will need to allow GMO canola into Europe. US subsidies for new bio-diesel production capacity will spur growth. (Production: 0.7mmt in 05/06; rising to 1.3mmt in 06/07; doubling again in 07/08.) Brazil, Argentina, Japan and China all have incentives to promote development of bio-diesel capacity.
35 Summary
36 Oilseeds Outlook 2006/07 Production Down (mostly in softseeds) Crush Demand Up (mostly in softseeds) Exports Up (mostly in softseeds) Stocks Down (mostly in softseeds) 06/07 Outlook: Very firm for softseeds as the world chases oil Flat for soybeans Very susceptible to a supply-side shock
37 Food versus Fuel one view This is a bit like a gold rush. There are unintended consequences of this euphoria to expand ethanol production at this pace that people are not considering, unless we have huge increases in productivity, we will have a huge problem with food production. Warren R. Staley Chief Executive Officer Cargill New York Times, 25 June 2006
38 Food versus Fuel another view Everyone has the vision in the end of a billion tons of biomass generating all of our fuels needs, that is the far vision. So we can focus on those intermediate steps to get to the vision. Mark G. Matlock Senior Vice President for R&D Archer Daniels Midland New York Times, 8 October 2006
39 Questions?
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