Share of Brazil s Soybean Exports to China Spikes in August

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service September 2018 Share of Brazil s Soybean Exports to China Spikes in August Monthly Share of Brazil's Soybean Exports to China 85% 75% 79% 73% 79% 79% 78% 02/ / / / / / /2018 The share of Brazil s exports destined for China rose to 85 percent in August, 7 percentage points above the previous month. This increase is due to a turn to Brazilian sources by China following the implementation of duties on U.S. soybeans. This has resulted in higher prices for Brazilian soybeans that discouraged purchases by importers other than China. This trend seems likely to continue and may strengthen in the coming months. At the current level of export share, Brazil s exports of soybeans to China would reach nearly 60 million tons (year ending January) compared to 54.4 million the previous year, accounting for all of the additional soybeans Brazil harvested in Soybean from Non-Brazilian Suppliers ROW China / / / / /2019 Using these projected trade flows and current import forecasts, U.S. trade opportunities for markets outside of China would rise nearly 13 million tons in the coming year compared to 2016/17. In contrast, increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China would result in an 8-million-ton decline in potential U.S. and other exporter trade to China for the same period. Any reduction in China s demand in the coming year will likely be absorbed by the United States because of the duties. Conversely, an increase in China s share of Brazil s exports would reduce Brazil s sales to other markets and increase opportunities for the United States to ship to these other markets, offsetting reduced sales to China. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 1/9/ /9/ /9/2017 5/10/ /10/ /10/2017 8/11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/2017 3/1/ /1/ /1/2018 6/2/ /02/ /2/ /3/ /3/2018 3/4/ /4/ /4/2018 7/5/ /5/ /5/2018 8/6/ /6/2018 2/7/ /7/ /7/2018 3/8/ /8/ /8/2018 6/9/2018 FOB ($/MT) OVERVIEW FOR Global oilseed production is forecast higher this month at million tons. Soybeans are forecast up at million tons with gains for the United States and China exceeding losses in Canada, India, and Uruguay. The rapeseed crop estimate is lower this month on reductions for China and the European Union. Peanut production forecast is down this month for China, India, and the United States. Cottonseed is up for China, Brazil, and the United States which more than offsets a reduction for Australia. Global soybean imports are down, driven by weaker demand from China. Soybean exports are down on projected lower exports for Canada and Uruguay. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected down $0.30 to $8.60 per bushel. OVERVIEW FOR 2017/18 Global oilseed production is estimated at million tons. Larger soybean production for Argentina is offset by cuts in Canada and Uruguay. Global soybean imports are down on lower shipments to China and Thailand more than offsetting gains for Egypt, the European Union, Iran, and Pakistan. Exports are slightly down for Argentina, Canada, and Uruguay which exceed gains for Brazil and the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is unchanged at $9.35 per bushel. SOYBEAN AND SOYBEAN MEAL EXPORT PRICES U.S. soybean export bids in August, FOB Gulf, averaged $336/ton, up $1 from July. In comparison, Brazil FOB Paranagua averaged $394/ton, up $2 from last month. Argentina FOB Up River averaged $384/ton, up $4 from last month. In the first half of August, prices in the United States saw some upward mobility supported by higher year-over-year exports and crush. However, in the second half of August, prices came under pressure as private crop estimates pointed to a bumper soybean harvest. Soybean Export Prices Argentina (Up River) Brazil (Paranagua) U.S. (Gulf) U.S. soybean meal export bids in August, FOB Gulf, averaged $385/ton, down $4 from July. In comparison, Brazil FOB Paranagua averaged $361/ton, down $16/ton from last month. Argentina Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 September 2018

3 1/9/ /9/ /09/2017 2/10/ /10/ /10/ /10/2017 9/11/ /11/ /11/2017 8/12/ /12/ /12/2017 8/1/ /01/ /01/2018 6/2/ /02/ /02/2018 7/3/ /03/ /03/2018 5/4/ /04/ /04/2018 4/5/ /05/ /05/2018 4/6/ /06/ /06/2018 3/7/ /7/ /07/2018 1/8/ /8/ /08/ /08/2018 US$/ton 1/6/ /6/ /6/ /7/ /7/ /8/ /8/2017 7/9/ /9/2017 5/10/ /10/2017 2/11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /1/ /1/2018 8/2/ /2/2018 8/3/ /3/2018 5/4/ /4/2018 3/5/ /5/ /5/ /6/ /6/ /7/ /7/2018 FOB ($/MT) FOB Up River averaged $354/ton, down $22. Many countries, except China, raised their soybean imports and crush above expectations to offset shortfalls in Argentina s soybean meal exports. Price declines in the United States were not as significant as in Brazil and Argentina, primarily due to strong exports and domestic demand for protein feed. Soybean Meal Export Prices Argentina (Up River) Brazil 48% (Paranagua) US 48% (Gulf) SOYBEAN AND PALM OIL EXPORT PRICES Higher year-over-year global production of both soy and palm oil has put downward pressure on prices of both oils. Compared to September 2017, soy oil export prices are down $149 in the United States, $134 in Brazil, and $132 in Argentina. In August 2018, U.S. soy oil export prices have run higher than South American origins with U.S. Gulf averaging $673/ton, Brazil $657/ton, and Argentina $641/ton. India has reduced palm and soybean oil imports on higher tariffs and a falling rupee. In this environment of reduced palm oil demand, the combined effects of higher Indonesian production and resulting stocks, versus moderated Malaysian production, have led to a divergence in Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil export prices. In August, Malaysian palm oil prices ran $21/ton higher than Indonesian palm oil. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil Export Prices Argentina (Up River) Soy Oil Brazil (Paranagua) Soy Oil USA (Gulf) Soy Oil Indonesia Palm Oil Malaysia Palm Oil Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 September 2018

4 Million Tons Million Tons EXPORT SALES For the week ending August 30, U.S. 2017/18 soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 27.9 million tons compared to 36.7 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 58.9 million tons, compared to 60.5 million for the same period last year. Old Crop Outstanding Sales, As of August 30 New Crop Outstanding Sales, As of August / / / / / / / / / /18 China Unknown Rest of World China Unknown Rest of World OUTLOOK CHANGES Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason United States Meal, Soybean Export 12,111 12, Higher crop projection and crush forecast. Canada Oilseed, Soybean Export Lower crop projection Oilseed, Soybean Import 95,000 94,000-1,000 Shrinking soybean exportable supplies in Canada and Uruguay following China Oilseed, Rapeseed Import Increased substitute protein demand with reduced soybean imports and crush Oil, Sunflowerseed Import Oil, Palm Import Increased oil demand with reduced soybean crush Egypt India Meal, Soybean Import Larger soybean crush reduces need for meal imports Oilseed, Soybean Import 3,150 3, Stronger pace of trade at the end of the marketing year Oil, Palm Import A response to import tariffs and in line with lower 2017/18 imports Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 September 2018

5 Oil, Sunflowerseed Import , Partially offsetting lower peanut oil production Indonesia Oil, Palm Export ,000 Slower pace of trade on weak demand growth in India Iran Pakistan Oilseed, Soybean Import 2, In line with 2017/18 changes; higher soybean imports and crush Meal, Soybean Import , reduce need for meal imports Oilseed, Rapeseed Import In line with 2017/18 changes; projected lower shipments from Canada offset by higher soybean imports Oilseed, Soybean Import Thailand Oil, Palm Export Ukraine Oil, Sunflowerseed Export , In line with 2017/18 changes Uruguay Oilseed, Soybean Export Lower crop projection Note: All figures are in thousand metric tons. 2017/18 OUTLOOK CHANGES Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason United States Oilseed, Soybean Export 57,425 57, Stronger-than-expected pace of trade towards end of the marketing Meal, Soybean Export 12,791 13, year Argentina Oilseed, Soybean Export 3,100 2,100-1,000 Weak July exports and trade prospects for the rest of the year Brazil Oilseed, Soybean Export 75,500 76,700 1,200 Strong pace of August trade Oilseed, Soybean Export 5,500 4, Canada Oilseed, Rapeseed Export 11,000 10, Final government data Meal, Soybean Import 900 1, China Oilseed, Soybean Import 96,000 94,000-2,000 Reduced crush slows imports at the end of the marketing year Meal, Soybean Export 900 1, Stronger-than-expected export pace Egypt European Union Meal, Soybean Import Larger soybean crush reduces need for meal imports Oilseed, Soybean Import 3,050 3, Stronger pace of trade at the end of the marketing year Oilseed, Soybean Import 14,100 14, Stronger imports at the end of the marketing year; stocks surge in anticipation of lower rapeseed crop and crush next marketing year Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 September 2018

6 Oilseed, Rapeseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Import 4,200 4, Final government data Import 3,800 3, Slowing trade towards end of the marketing year following larger soybean crush and soybean meal production Oil, Palm Import 10,700 9,500-1,200 Slower pace of imports from Indonesia and Malaysia following new import duties Oil, Soybean Import 3,100 3, Slow pace of imports from Argentina India Oil, Sunflowerseed Import 2,200 2, Stronger pace of trade to offset reduced soybean oil imports Meal, Soybean Export Stronger-than-expected pace of trade, primarily to the EU, Vietnam, and the United States Meal, Rapeseed Export Stronger-than-expected pace of trade to South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam Indonesia Oil, Palm Export 28,000 27,000-1,000 Slower pace of trade on weak demand growth in India Iran Oilseed, Soybean Import 2,300 2, Stronger pace of trade at the end of the marketing year Meal, Soybean Import 1,250 1, Larger soybean crush reduces need for meal imports Malaysia Oil, Palm Export 17,450 17, Slower pace of trade on weak demand growth in India Pakistan Thailand Oilseed, Rapeseed Import 1, Smaller-than-expected rapeseed shipments from Canada offset by larger soybean imports from the United States Oilseed, Soybean Import 2,050 2, Oilseed, Soybean Import Smaller-than-expected imports to date; larger shipments from the United Stated did not fully offset reductions from Brazil Meal, Soybean Import Stronger-than-expected imports from Brazil and the United States Oil, Palm Export Stronger than expected exports to India (crude) Ukraine Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Export 4,550 4, Slower-than-expected pace of trade Export 5,250 5, Stronger-than-expected pace of trade Uruguay Oilseed, Soybean Export 1,650 1, Lower supplies following reduced production Note: All figures are in thousand metric tons. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 September 2018

7 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 September 2018

8 Questions may be directed to: Bill George (202) Agata Kingsbury (202) Ben Boroughs (202) To download the tables in the publication, go to the Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): ( scroll down to Reports, and click the plus sign [+] next to Oilseeds. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and ): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service: Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 September 2018

9 List of Tables SUMMARY TABLES Table 01 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 02 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 03 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 04 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 05 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 06 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) COMMODITY TABLES Table 07 Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Table 08 Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Table 09 Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 10 Soybeans and Products: World Trade Table 11 Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 12 Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 13 Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 14 Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution HISTORICAL TABLES Table 15 World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 16 World Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Table 17 World Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 18 World Sunflowerseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 19 World Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution COUNTRY TABLES Table 20 United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 21 United States Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 22 Brazil Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 23 Argentina Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 24 South East Asia Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 25 Middle East Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 26 European Union Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 27 China Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 28 India Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution PRICES Table 29 Table 30 Table 31 Oilseed Prices Protein Meal Prices Vegetable Oil Prices Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 September 2018

10 Table 01: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Crush Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 September 2018

11 Table 02: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Domestic Consumption Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 September 2018

12 Table 03: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Domestic Consumption Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 September 2018

13 Table 04: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production United States Brazil Argentina China India Other Total China European Union Mexico Japan Egypt Thailand Indonesia Pakistan Turkey Iran Other Total Exports Brazil United States Canada Argentina Paraguay Ukraine Australia Other Crush Total China United States European Union Argentina Brazil India Russia Ukraine Indonesia Canada Mexico Pakistan Malaysia Turkey Japan Other Total Ending Stocks Argentina United States Brazil China European Union Other Total Major Oilseeds includes Copra, Cottonseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybeans and Sunflowerseeds. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 September 2018

14 Table 05: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production China United States Brazil Argentina European Union Other Total European Union Vietnam Indonesia United States Thailand Korea, South Japan Other Total Exports Argentina Brazil United States Ukraine Canada Indonesia Paraguay Other Total Domestic Consumption China European Union United States Brazil India Russia Mexico Vietnam Japan Indonesia Other SME Total China European Union United States Brazil India Mexico Vietnam Other Total Ending Stocks Argentina Brazil Indonesia European Union Ukraine Other Total Major Protein Meals include Copra, Cottonseed, Fish, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflower Meal. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 September 2018

15 Table 06: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production Indonesia China Malaysia European Union United States Argentina Brazil Other Total India European Union China United States Pakistan Bangladesh Egypt Philippines Turkey Iran Other Total Exports Indonesia Malaysia Argentina Ukraine Canada Russia European Union Other Total Domestic Consumption China European Union India United States Indonesia Brazil Malaysia Pakistan Argentina Russia Thailand Mexico Bangladesh Egypt Japan Other Total Ending Stocks Indonesia Malaysia China European Union India Other Total Major Vegetable Oils includes Coconut, Cottonseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflowerseed oil. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 September 2018

16 Table 07: Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production United States 106, , , , , ,726 Brazil 97,200 96, , , , ,500 Argentina 61,450 58,800 55,000 37,800 57,000 57,000 China 12,154 11,785 12,900 14,200 14,500 15,000 India 8,711 6,929 10,992 8,350 10,800 10,500 Paraguay 8,154 9,217 10,336 10,000 9,800 9,800 Canada 6,045 6,456 6,597 7,717 7,300 7,000 Other 19,365 19,033 20,776 19,735 22,396 21,791 Total 319, , , , , ,317 China 78,350 83,230 93,495 94,000 95,000 94,000 European Union 13,914 15,120 13,422 14,500 15,800 15,800 Mexico 3,819 4,126 4,126 4,600 4,750 4,750 Egypt 1,947 1,300 2,115 3,250 3,150 3,300 Japan 3,004 3,186 3,175 3,250 3,300 3,300 Thailand 2,411 2,798 3,077 2,450 3,250 3,200 Indonesia 2,006 2,274 2,649 2,700 2,900 2,900 Iran 1,311 1,864 1,914 2,500 2,450 2,600 Turkey 2,197 2,283 2,271 2,600 2,600 2,600 Taiwan 2,520 2,476 2,566 2,550 2,580 2,580 Other 12,882 14,674 15,543 19,455 19,049 19,089 Total 124, , , , , ,119 Exports Brazil 50,612 54,383 63,137 76,700 75,000 75,000 United States 50,136 52,870 58,960 57,969 56,064 56,064 Argentina 10,575 9,922 7,026 2,100 8,000 8,000 Paraguay 4,576 5,400 6,129 6,250 5,900 5,900 Canada 3,763 4,236 4,592 4,928 5,500 5,000 Other 6,548 5,705 7,512 5,668 7,499 6,939 Crush Total 126, , , , , ,903 China 74,500 81,500 88,000 90,000 95,000 93,500 United States 50,975 51,335 51,742 55,928 56,064 56,336 Argentina 40,235 43,267 43,303 37,700 43,000 43,000 Brazil 40,435 39,747 40,411 43,000 42,700 42,700 European Union 14,450 14,950 14,400 14,900 16,300 16,600 India 7,700 5,500 9,000 7,600 9,000 9,000 Mexico 4,175 4,400 4,600 5,000 5,200 5,200 Russia 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,650 5,100 5,100 Paraguay 3,700 3,800 3,750 3,700 3,950 3,950 Egypt 1,950 1,150 2,200 3,200 3,100 3,300 Iran 1,450 1,950 2,050 2,650 2,600 2,750 Pakistan 500 1,250 1,680 2,300 2,300 2,400 Bolivia 2,450 2,550 2,050 2,550 2,350 2,350 Japan 2,150 2,283 2,392 2,350 2,350 2,350 Taiwan 1,980 1,980 2,045 2,080 2,100 2,100 Other 14,476 15,326 15,181 16,083 17,554 17,565 Total 264, , , , , ,201 Ending Stocks Argentina 31,750 33,650 35,470 32,670 34,100 35,970 United States 5,188 5,354 8,208 10,738 21,352 22,998 Brazil 19,078 18,558 26,462 23,000 23,800 22,650 China 17,009 16,910 20,391 22,456 20,781 20,756 European Union 843 1,559 1,131 1,473 1,398 1,423 Other 4,095 4,392 5,020 4,404 4,508 4,467 Total 77,963 80,423 96,682 94, , ,264 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The United States, Mexico, and Thailand are on a September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a Jan/Dec MY. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 September 2018

17 Table 08: Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production China 59,004 64,548 69,696 71,280 75,240 74,052 United States 40,880 40,525 40,630 44,361 44,180 44,407 Brazil 31,300 30,750 31,280 33,300 33,100 33,100 Argentina 30,928 33,211 33,280 28,630 33,050 33,050 European Union 11,416 11,811 11,376 11,771 12,877 13,114 India 6,160 4,400 7,200 6,080 7,200 7,200 Mexico 3,300 3,480 3,635 3,950 4,108 4,108 Other 25,468 27,090 28,286 31,538 32,953 33,348 Total 208, , , , , ,379 European Union 19,623 19,207 18,924 18,500 18,500 18,500 Vietnam 4,311 5,094 4,945 4,800 5,000 5,000 Indonesia 3,902 4,203 4,255 4,400 4,600 4,600 Philippines 2,204 2,618 2,662 2,750 2,850 2,850 Thailand 3,068 2,433 2,782 3,150 2,870 2,850 Mexico 1,795 2,367 1,991 2,000 2,070 2,070 Korea, South 1,751 2,118 1,764 1,850 1,850 1,870 Japan 1,699 1,721 1,621 1,650 1,650 1,650 Colombia 1,148 1,206 1,284 1,425 1,500 1,500 Malaysia 1,465 1,291 1,427 1,525 1,500 1,500 Other 19,719 19,601 18,887 18,290 20,071 19,761 Total 60,685 61,859 60,542 60,340 62,461 62,151 Exports Argentina 28,575 30,333 31,323 26,200 29,800 29,800 Brazil 14,290 15,407 13,762 16,350 15,000 15,000 United States 11,891 10,844 10,505 13,063 12,111 12,247 Paraguay 2,569 2,552 2,407 2,430 2,580 2,580 Bolivia 1,674 1,726 1,264 1,690 1,550 1,550 Other 5,405 4,640 5,214 4,880 4,389 4,509 Total 64,404 65,502 64,475 64,613 65,430 65,686 Domestic Consumption China 57,467 62,663 68,646 70,410 74,370 73,182 United States 29,282 30,044 30,318 31,752 32,387 32,478 European Union 30,142 30,742 30,342 30,042 31,142 31,342 Brazil 15,700 16,470 16,943 17,500 18,130 18,130 Vietnam 4,750 5,470 5,740 5,990 6,170 6,170 Mexico 5,050 5,700 5,770 5,930 6,150 6,150 India 4,500 4,460 4,855 4,975 5,625 5,620 Indonesia 4,000 4,200 4,264 4,450 4,600 4,600 Thailand 4,100 4,230 4,232 4,250 4,400 4,350 Russia 2,700 3,100 3,250 3,600 4,000 4,000 Egypt 2,650 2,850 2,980 3,150 3,400 3,425 Japan 3,365 3,458 3,420 3,463 3,420 3,420 Iran 3,000 3,080 3,180 3,275 3,380 3,380 Argentina 2,402 2,672 2,853 3,000 3,200 3,215 Philippines 2,400 2,600 2,720 2,850 2,950 2,950 Other 30,053 31,280 32,370 34,138 36,367 36,321 Total 201, , , , , ,733 Ending Stocks Argentina 4,025 4,231 3,335 2,765 2,735 2,800 Brazil 3,812 2,710 3,320 2,800 2,800 2,800 United States India European Union Other 4,556 5,053 4,810 4,298 4,172 4,207 Total 14,042 13,195 12,762 10,624 10,620 10,735 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The Mexico and Thailand are on a September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay, Vietnam and the Philippines are on a January/December MY and Bolivia is on a March/February MY. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 17 September 2018

18 Table 09: Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production China 13,347 14,605 15,770 16,128 17,024 16,755 United States 9,706 9,956 10,035 10,725 10,793 10,845 Argentina 7,687 8,433 8,395 7,340 8,360 8,360 Brazil 7,759 7,627 7,755 8,250 8,195 8,195 European Union 2,746 2,841 2,736 2,831 3,097 3,154 India 1, ,620 1,368 1,620 1,620 Mexico Other 5,905 6,289 6,553 7,247 7,561 7,653 Total 49,281 51,526 53,684 54,781 57,580 57,512 India 2,815 4,269 3,534 3,000 3,400 3,400 Bangladesh Algeria China Morocco Peru Colombia Korea, South Egypt Iran Other 3,018 2,970 2,991 2,723 2,830 2,820 Total 10,034 11,638 10,840 9,658 10,665 10,585 Exports Argentina 5,094 5,698 5,387 3,850 5,100 5,100 Brazil 1,510 1,550 1,241 1,600 1,275 1,275 European Union 1, ,000 United States 914 1,017 1,159 1, Paraguay Russia Bolivia Other 1,073 1,005 1,181 1,106 1,113 1,113 Total 11,115 11,769 11,244 10,077 11,086 11,136 Domestic Consumption China 14,200 15,350 16,350 16,550 17,600 17,300 United States 8,600 9,145 9,010 9,571 9,979 9,979 Brazil 6,215 6,290 6,570 6,885 6,980 6,965 India 4,100 5,250 5,200 4,550 4,900 4,800 Argentina 2,401 2,840 2,985 3,405 3,418 3,418 European Union 2,040 2,285 2,205 2,225 2,255 2,255 Mexico 961 1,020 1,050 1,080 1,160 1,160 Bangladesh , ,000 1,000 Egypt Algeria Iran Pakistan Morocco Korea, South Colombia Other 4,977 5,015 5,116 5,223 5,590 5,594 Total 47,726 52,080 53,341 54,564 57,147 56,746 Ending Stocks United States India China European Union Argentina Other 1,689 1,468 1,422 1,198 1,203 1,223 Total 4,342 3,657 3,596 3,394 3,410 3,609 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). Mexico is on a September/August MY. Paraguay and Peru are on an January/December MY and Bolivia is on a March/February MY. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 18 September 2018

19 Table 10: Soybeans and Products: World Trade Thousand Metric Tons Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Soybean Marketing Year 2016/ / / / / /18 Exports North America 10,809 13,434 12,612 1,358 1,272 1,152 63,552 62,897 61,064 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,592 4,928 5,000 United States (Oct-Sep) 10,505 13,063 12,247 1,159 1, ,960 57,969 56,064 South America 48,766 46,681 48,940 7,555 6,512 7,437 79,537 86,317 91,343 Argentina (Oct-Sep) 31,323 26,200 29,800 5,387 3,850 5,100 7,026 2,100 8,000 Brazil (Oct-Sep) 13,762 16,350 15,000 1,241 1,600 1,275 63,137 76,700 75,000 Paraguay (Jan-Dec) 2,407 2,430 2, ,129 6,250 5,900 South Asia 2,021 1,507 1, India (Oct-Sep) 2,008 1,500 1, Other 2,879 2,991 2,726 2,330 2,291 2,542 3,998 4,151 4,246 World Total 64,475 64,613 65,686 11,244 10,077 11, , , ,903 European Union (Oct-Sep) 18,924 18,500 18, ,422 14,500 15,800 East Asia 3,502 3,698 3,627 1, , , , ,282 China (Oct-Sep) ,495 94,000 94,000 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,621 1,650 1, ,175 3,250 3,300 Korea, South (Oct-Sep) 1,764 1,850 1, ,286 1,330 1,400 Taiwan (Oct-Sep) ,566 2,550 2,580 Southeast Asia 16,097 16,651 16, ,408 8,070 9,391 Indonesia (Oct-Sep) 4,255 4,400 4, ,649 2,700 2,900 Malaysia (Oct-Sep) 1,427 1,525 1, Philippines (Jan-Dec) 2,662 2,750 2, Thailand (Sep-Aug) 2,782 3,150 2, ,077 2,450 3,200 Vietnam (Jan-Dec) 4,945 4,800 5, ,646 1,850 2,150 North America 3,129 3,477 3, ,218 5,686 6,010 Canada (Aug-Jul) 821 1, Mexico (Sep-Aug) 1,991 2,000 2, ,126 4,600 4,750 South America 4,878 5,140 5,431 1,251 1,188 1,279 3,096 5,191 3,740 Brazil (Oct-Sep) Colombia (Oct-Sep) 1,284 1,425 1, Central America 1,165 1,218 1, Caribbean 1,007 1,052 1, Middle East 4,950 3,980 4, ,232 6,265 6,420 Iran (Oct-Sep) 1,507 1,050 1, ,914 2,500 2,600 Israel (Oct-Sep) Syria (Jan-Dec) Turkey (Oct-Sep) ,271 2,600 2,600 North Africa 3,135 2,750 3,060 1,560 1,585 1,655 2,653 3,970 4,105 Egypt (Oct-Sep) 1, ,115 3,250 3,300 Other 3,755 3,874 4,188 5,037 4,366 4,773 5,311 6,539 6,845 World Total 60,542 60,340 62,151 10,840 9,658 10, , , ,119 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 19 September 2018

20 Table 11: Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2014/ / / /18 Aug Sep Production Indonesia 33,000 32,000 36,000 38,500 40,500 40,500 Malaysia 19,879 17,700 18,858 20,000 21,000 21,000 Thailand 2,068 1,804 2,500 2,700 2,900 2,900 Colombia 1,110 1,275 1,147 1,628 1,530 1,530 Nigeria Other 4,783 5,141 5,780 5,801 5,859 5,859 Total 61,750 58,890 65,255 69,599 72,759 72,759 India 9,139 8,860 9,341 9,500 11,600 10,600 European Union 6,935 6,636 7,224 6,500 6,500 6,500 China 5,696 4,689 4,881 5,100 5,250 5,400 Pakistan 2,826 2,720 3,075 3,100 3,250 3,250 Bangladesh 1,280 1,511 1,314 1,500 1,650 1,650 United States 1,143 1,307 1,367 1,640 1,600 1,600 Egypt 1,489 1,038 1,323 1,250 1,300 1,300 Philippines ,165 1,100 1,200 1,200 Russia Vietnam Other 13,602 13,008 14,163 14,777 15,388 15,408 Total 44,471 42,370 45,494 46,237 49,528 48,698 Exports Indonesia 25,964 22,906 27,633 27,000 29,500 28,500 Malaysia 17,378 16,621 16,301 17,000 17,900 17,900 Guatemala Colombia Papua New Guinea Other 2,671 2,606 3,090 3,253 3,185 3,335 Total 47,389 43,742 48,907 49,298 52,637 51,787 Domestic Consumption Indonesia 7,520 8,870 9,110 9,985 10,130 11,055 India 9,150 9,100 9,550 9,700 11,820 10,820 European Union 6,900 6,600 6,800 6,550 6,450 6,450 China 5,700 4,800 4,830 5,050 5,250 5,400 Malaysia 2,941 2,990 2,685 3,117 3,425 3,449 Pakistan 2,738 2,795 2,995 3,145 3,245 3,245 Thailand 1,925 1,835 2,106 2,440 2,590 2,440 Bangladesh 1,275 1,411 1,314 1,470 1,625 1,625 United States 1,092 1,269 1,355 1,622 1,580 1,580 Philippines ,225 1,250 1,320 1,320 Egypt 1,350 1,100 1,300 1,280 1,300 1,300 Nigeria 1,410 1,320 1,240 1,260 1,290 1,290 Colombia ,018 1,028 1,028 Russia Vietnam Other 12,967 13,334 14,372 15,191 15,856 15,886 Total 58,206 58,899 61,490 64,805 68,666 68,645 Ending Stocks Indonesia 2,734 2,958 2,220 3,735 4,180 4,680 Malaysia 2,641 1,546 2,016 2,649 2,574 3,000 India European Union Pakistan Other 3,485 3,202 3,465 3,285 3,407 3,119 Total 10,237 8,856 9,208 10,941 11,328 11,966 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 20 September 2018

21 Table 12: Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed Marketing Year 2016/ / / / / /18 Production China (Oct-Sep) 10,771 11,128 11,247 7,059 7,293 7,371 14,546 14,400 13,950 India (Oct-Sep) 3,460 3,056 3,250 2,200 1,950 2,070 7,091 5,850 6,500 Canada (Aug-Jul) 5,150 5,149 5,285 4,017 4,143 4,110 19,599 21,328 21,100 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,355 1,360 1,390 1,061 1,075 1, European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,908 13,851 12,996 10,199 10,157 9,530 20,538 22,145 19,000 Other 5,206 5,314 5,612 3,667 3,748 3,942 9,547 10,827 11,145 World Total 39,850 39,858 39,780 28,203 28,366 28,118 71,325 74,554 71,699 China (Oct-Sep) 875 1,250 1, ,000 1,000 4,260 4,600 5,600 India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) Japan (Oct-Sep) ,392 2,450 2,500 European Union (Jul-Jun) ,224 4,006 4,400 Other 4,762 4,621 4,781 3,046 3,017 3,211 4,688 4,267 4,310 World Total 5,889 6,137 6,106 4,387 4,507 4,691 15,658 15,430 16,910 Exports China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) 4,681 4,535 4,700 3,133 3,151 3,200 11,022 10,789 11,600 Japan (Oct-Sep) European Union (Jul-Jun) Other ,025 1,179 1,261 4,458 5,430 5,730 World Total 6,033 6,038 6,093 4,522 4,625 4,735 15,799 16,348 17,460 Domestic Consumption China (Oct-Sep) 11,634 12,363 12,232 8,700 8,900 8,650 18,700 19,300 19,500 India (Oct-Sep) 2,890 2,700 2,800 2,480 2,335 2,380 6,850 6,070 6,500 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,420 9,597 9,591 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,377 1,372 1,400 1,078 1,081 1,102 2,442 2,455 2,505 European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,850 13,700 13,000 10,100 10,000 9,500 25,400 25,350 23,800 Other 9,562 9,451 9,756 5,729 5,584 5,891 9,424 9,663 10,007 World Total 39,852 40,200 39,803 29,043 28,865 28,508 72,236 72,435 71,903 Ending Stocks China (Oct-Sep) ,676 2,049 1,750 1,346 1,046 1,096 India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) ,342 2,391 2,400 Japan (Oct-Sep) European Union (Jul-Jun) ,600 1,070 Other ,249 1, World Total ,368 3,751 3,317 5,596 6,797 6,043 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 21 September 2018

22 Table 13: Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Marketing Year 2016/ / / / / /18 Production Argentina (Sep-Aug) 3,547 3,534 3,500 1,270 1,452 1,452 1,288 1,465 1,465 Russia (Sep-Aug) 10,858 10,362 11,000 4,146 4,105 4,269 4,171 4,130 4,295 Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,320 1,550 1, ,100 1, Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 15,200 13,700 15,000 6,030 5,658 5,989 6,351 5,891 6,235 European Union (Oct-Sep) 8,598 9,679 9,600 4,266 4,644 4,698 3,338 3,634 3,676 Other 8,442 8,631 8,989 2,654 2,802 2,979 2,256 2,377 2,523 World Total 47,965 47,456 49,829 19,329 19,761 20,515 18,165 18,387 19,106 Argentina (Sep-Aug) Russia (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,708 3,700 3,800 1,834 1,500 1,650 Other ,267 2,605 2,288 6,279 6,289 6,286 World Total 2,173 2,134 2,038 6,945 7,287 7,038 8,924 8,336 8,458 Exports Argentina (Sep-Aug) Russia (Sep-Aug) ,300 1,250 1,200 2,178 2,250 2,100 Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) ,807 4,350 4,600 5,851 5,350 5,600 European Union (Oct-Sep) Other 1,406 1,609 1, World Total 2,440 2,504 2,311 7,438 7,104 7,214 10,406 9,746 9,792 Domestic Consumption Argentina (Sep-Aug) 3,130 3,560 3, Russia (Sep-Aug) 10,580 10,460 10,860 2,850 2,950 3,150 2,055 2,060 2,125 Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,862 2,122 2,182 1,850 2,050 2, ,020 1,030 Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 14,780 13,890 14,700 1,300 1,270 1, European Union (Oct-Sep) 8,990 9,690 9,790 7,860 8,060 8,210 4,610 4,590 4,790 Other 7,645 7,894 8,369 4,701 5,096 5,031 7,733 8,374 8,317 World Total 46,987 47,616 49,457 19,101 20,026 20,436 16,665 17,341 17,579 Ending Stocks Argentina (Sep-Aug) 1,238 1,137 1, Russia (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other , World Total 3,365 2,835 2,934 1,429 1,347 1,250 1,694 1,330 1,523 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 22 September 2018

23 Table 14: Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Oil, Peanut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Marketing Year 2016/ / / / / /18 Production China (Oct-Sep) 2,896 3,040 2,992 1,115 1,382 1, India (Oct-Sep) 1,238 1,188 1,089 1,160 1,320 1,320 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,745 2,200 2,240 Other 1,659 1,675 1,673 1,671 1,922 1, World Total 5,942 6,028 5,891 4,414 5,152 5,294 2,482 3,268 3,147 China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total Exports China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total , Domestic Consumption China (Oct-Sep) 2,999 3,142 3,094 1,113 1,377 1, India (Oct-Sep) 1,165 1,190 1,075 1,165 1,295 1,335 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,370 1,570 1,720 Other 1,439 1,453 1,461 1,687 1,908 2, World Total 5,829 5,992 5,853 4,384 5,060 5,285 2,585 2,865 3,048 Ending Stocks China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 23 September 2018