World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation

Transcription

1 World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation November 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released November, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.

2 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates /19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 113 MMT; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in Australia to fall to 17.5 MMT, 3% below the 5-year average U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.3 MMT, 8% above 217/18 2. Consumption forecast at a record 743 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average Chinese domestic consumption expected to reach 123 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average U.S. domestic consumption to grow 7% year over year to 31.3 MMT 3. World wheat trade projected at 179 MMT, 3% above the 5-year average Australian exports to drop to 11.5 MMT, 18% below 217/18, and the lowest level since 27/8 Exports from Russia to fall 15% year over year 35. MMT, still 28% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.9 MMT, up 14% from 217/18, if realized

3 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 279 MMT, up 7% year over year Beginning stocks in Argentina forecast at 1. MMT, down 42% the 5-year average U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9 MMT, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 267 MMT, 4% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 144 MMT account for 6% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 58.1 MMT, down 18% year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65. MMT, 11% below the 5-year average of 72.4 MMT 6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 8% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $4.9 to $5.3/bushel ($18-$195/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average

4 MMT World Production and Use Production Use

5 Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

6 World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 MMT SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks Production Supply Total TRADE: Exports/Imports DEMAND Food & Seed Feed & Residual Use Total ENDING STOCKS:

7 World Beginning Stocks /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

8 Percent Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks

9 Percent 3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks

10 World Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

11 World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) Exporters, 58.1 China, 144 Importers, 65.1

12 $US/MT Global Ending Stocks and Price /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price 1 5

13 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

14 Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries Argentina Australia Canada EU-25 Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine U.S /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

15 Canada Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

16 Canada Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

17 Australia Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

18 Australia Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

19 Argentina Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

20 Argentina Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

21 European Union Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

22 EU-27 Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

23 Russia Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

24 Russia Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

25 Black Sea Region Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.

26 Black Sea Exports /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan

27 Black Sea Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

28 U.S. Situation /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use

29 U.S. Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

30 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

31 Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) /19 217/18

32 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average

33 2.5 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date /19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report November 8, 218.

34 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/ Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.

35 World Wheat Imports /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )

36 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

37 Million Acres U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class /8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218

38 U.S. Hard Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

39 U.S. Hard Red Spring /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

40 U.S. Soft Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

41 U.S. White /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

42 U.S. Durum /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

43 U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report November 8, 218.

44 18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

45 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 76% 51% 37% 44% 67% 52%

46 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 31% 18% 33% 37% 56% 44%

47 $/Metric Ton U.S. FOB Gulf Prices Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW

48 $/Metric Ton U.S. FOB PNW Prices Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW

49 $/Metric Ton SRW and Soft White Prices Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 SW SRW

50 $/Metric Ton U.S. Gulf Basis Prices Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW

51 $/Metric Ton U.S. PNW Basis Prices Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 HRS 14 HRW 12

52 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

53 Production (MMT) and Harvested Area (mh) MT/hectares U.S. Wheat Area and Production /99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield

54 Million Hectares U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison /97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19* Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218

55 Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) World Wheat Production, Use and Trade /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade 1

56 Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) World Corn Production, Use and Trade /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade

57 Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade

58 $/metric ton Ocean Freight Rates for Grains PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa

59 Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years Australian wheat production to fall to 17.5 MMT, 18% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.3 MMT, 8% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 267 MMT, still 11% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 1.2 MMT, 28% below the year prior, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 25.8 MMT, down 14% from 217/18, if realized World consumption expected to remain at a record high in 218/19; world trade to remain near record high Indonesian 218/19 wheat imports to remain stable at 1. MMT, still 1% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.9 MMT, 7% above the 5-year average, if realized