Grain: World Markets and Trade

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FG 1-6 January 26 Grain: World Markets and Trade Larger Harvests Boost Australian Grain Exports MMT 4 Total Grain Production Rises Marketing Year Exports Estimated To Climb (4/ to /6 Increase) MMT 2 Wheat Barley 2 1. Rice Sorghum 1 /1 2/3 3/4 4/ /6 After a third year of strong production and large stocks, Australia s grain exports are expected to surge. For wheat, total supply is forecast at a record level (the result of both large carry-in stocks and a bigger harvest), and marketing year exports are consequently forecast to grow by nearly 2 million tons. Stocks could continue to rise, however, because weaker global demand and reduced buying from key markets such as China and Iraq will likely limit export growth. For barley, slightly higher production and strong world demand is expected to boost exports. Australia will remain the world s largest exporter, accounting for an estimated one-third of world trade (compared to a quarter last year). For rice, with a huge rebound in its crop, exports are forecast to grow more than four times the previous year s level, exerting downward pressure on medium grain rice prices and increasing Australia s competitiveness, vis-à-vis U.S. rice, in certain markets in the Middle East and Oceania. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary Table All Grain Summary...3 World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data Wheat...4 Rice...9 Coarse Grains Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries...34 Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 26

3 ALL GRAIN SUMMARY PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, STOCKS, AND TRADE TOTAL FOREIGN COUNTRIES, USA, AND TOTAL WORLD (MILLION METRIC TONS) 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 WHEAT 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec All Foreign Countries Production Consumption Ending Stocks USA Production Imports Consumption Exports Ending Stocks World Total, Trade /6 12-Jan RICE All Foreign Countries Production Consumption USA Production Imports Consumption Exports World Total, Trade TOTAL COARSE GRAINS All Foreign Countries Production Consumption USA Production Imports Consumption Exports Ending Stocks World Total, Trade GRAIN, INCLUDING RICE All Foreign Countries Production 1,.6 1,24.8 1,13. 1,61.3 1,61.4 1,61.1 Consumption 1, , , , , ,733.2 USA Production Imports Exports World Total, Trade , , Trade data are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. Rice production data is on a milled basis. 3 January 26

4 F A S/ G & F D WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE: COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: U.S. Imports From Canada Expected To Climb: U.S. imports of Hard Red Spring (HRS) from Canada are expected to jump from last year s low of 8, tons, after recent ITC and NAFTA rulings to remove import duties that had been in place since the spring of 23; HRS imports had been as high as 1.4 MMT. MMT U.S. HRS Imports From Canada (grain only) When similar U.S. duties on durum wheat were removed in late 23, durum imports quickly returned to previous higher levels. Total U.S. imports are consequently raised this month by 2, tons to 2.4 million tons. U.S. Winter Wheat Area Up: U.S. winter wheat seeding area is projected to increase 2 percent mostly due to better planting and germinating conditions for Soft Red Winter (SRW), which is up 19 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter seedings are down 1 percent from last year. However, some key states actually expanded acreage because of concerns over high costs of fuel and fertilizer for springplanted crops. PRICES: Domestic: Prices for winter wheat classes rose in December on deteriorating crop conditions, especially in southern HRW belt states where there has been continued dryness. Mil. Acres /1 2/3 4/ U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Source: NASS 4 Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 26

5 For the month, HRW prices were up $6 per ton, with SRW up $11 per ton and Soft White up $1 per ton. HRS prices finished the month unchanged. U.S. Weekly FOB Export Bids $/MT /28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/ 12/2 12/9 12/16 12/23 12/3 U.S. No.1 HRW 11% (Gulf) U.S. No.2 SRW (Gulf) U.S. No.1 SWW (PNW) US No.1 DNS 14% (PNW) TRADE CHANGES IN /26 Selected Exporters Paraguay is up 1, tons to 3, with continued strong exports to Brazil. Bulgaria is up 1, tons to 8, because of strong shipments to nearby markets. Selected Importers United States is up 2, tons to 2.4 million on expectations for larger imports of spring wheat from Canada following the removal of duties. Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 26

6 WORLD WHEAT, FLOUR, AND PRODUCTS TRADE JULY/JUNE YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec 12-Jan EXPORTS Argentina 11,671 6,276 7,346 13,2 13,2 7, 7, Australia 16,494 1,946 1,96 1,826 1,826 16, 16, Canada 16,78 9,393 1,26 1,142 1,142 16, 16, India 3,234,3,4 1,6 1,6 Kazakhstan 3,977 6,238 4,11 2,7 2,7 3, 3, Russia 4,372 12,621 3,114 7,91 7,91 1, 1, Syria 3 8 1, Turkey ,217 2,217 2, 2, Ukraine,486 6, ,31 4,31,, EU- 14,232 19,94 1,931 14,367 14,367 14, 14, Other Europe 1,872 1, ,29 1,29 1,31 1,41 Others, 6,442 8,39 4,86 4,86 4,86 4,96 Subtotal 84,479 87,71 72,224 84,16 84,16 82,87 83,7 United States 26,27 22,834 32,29 28,464 28,464 27, 27, 11,749 19,9 14,19 112,98 112,98 11,37 11,7 IMPORTS Algeria 4,72 6,79 3,933,398,398,, Bangladesh 1,6 1,33 1,94 2,9 2,9 2,1 2,1 Bolivia Brazil 7,22 6,631,9,39,39 6, 6, Chile China 1, ,749 6,747 6,747 2, 2, Colombia 1,161 1,166 1,246 1,248 1,248 1,3 1,3 Cuba 1, Ecuador Egypt 6,944 6,327 7,29 8,1 8,1 7, 7, Ethiopia India , 1, Indonesia 3,677 3,984 4,3 4,661 4,661 4,6 4,6 Iran,86 1, Iraq 2,81 1,79 1,9 3,1 3,1 3,8 3,8 Israel 1,3 1, ,49 1,49 1,6 1,6 Japan,836,79,71,744,744,7,7 Jordan 72 1, Kenya Korea, North Korea, South 3,979 4,2 3,434 3,91 3,91 3,9 3,9 Libya 1,623 1,421 1,7 1,8 1,8 1, 1, Malaysia 1,268 1,19 1,329 1,412 1,412 1,3 1,3 Mexico 3,171 3,161 3,644 3,717 3,717 3,6 3,6 Morocco 3,7 2,72 2,414 2,272 2,272 2,9 2,9 Nigeria 2,446 2,34 2,383 3,14 3,14 3,9 3,9 Pakistan ,416 1, Peru 1,421 1,17 1,488 1,449 1,449 1, 1, Philippines 2,922 3,23 2,97 2,93 2,93 2,6 2,6 Russia 629 1,4 1,26 1,197 1,197 1, 1, South Africa 61 1, ,47 1,47 1,3 1,3 Sri Lanka 81 1, ,163 1,163 1, 1, Sudan , 1, 1,1 1,1 Taiwan 1,26 1,3 1,216 1,146 1,146 1,1 1,1 Thailand ,3 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 Tunisia 1,261 2, ,79 1,79 1,2 1,2 Turkey 1,88 1,217 1,6 UAE 1,149 1,1 1,13 1,213 1,213 1,2 1,2 Uzbekistan Venezuela 1, ,38 1,4 1,4 1,6 1,6 Vietnam ,226 1,226 1,2 1,2 Yemen 1,761 1,772 1,63 1,83 1,83 1,9 1,9 EU- 1,716 13,921,912 7,2 7,2 7,2 7,2 Other Europe 1,928 1,921 4,214 1,77 1,77 1,8 1,8 United States 2,93 1,98 1,76 1,946 1,946 2,2 2,4 Subtotal 9,226 92,449 8,441 94,998 94,998 93,47 93,67 Other Countries 13,86 1,232 16,41 1,66 1,66 14,11 14,11 Unaccounted 1,717 2,224 2,663 2,916 2,916 2,79 2,79 11,749 19,9 14,19 112,98 112,98 11,37 11,7 6 January 26

7 WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec PRODUCTION Algeria 2,1 1,2 2,97 2,62 2,62 1, Argentina 1, 12,3 14, 16, 16, 12,1 Australia 24,299 1,132 26,132 22,6 22,6 24, Brazil 3, 2,9,81,84,84 4,6 Canada 2,68 16,198 23,2,86,86 26,8 China 93,873 9,29 86,49 91,9 91,9 96, India 69,68 71,81 6,1 72,6 72,6 72, Iran 9, 12,4 13, 14, 14, 14, Kazakhstan 12,7 12,6 11, 9,9 9,9 11, Mexico 3,27 3,23 2,7 2,32 2,32 3, Morocco 3,316 3,37,147,4,4 3,43 Pakistan 19,23 18,226 19,192 19, 19, 21, Russia 46,9, 34,1 4,3 4,3 48, Tunisia 1, ,6 1,722 1,722 1,4 Turkey 1, 16,8 16,8 18, 18, 18, Ukraine 21,349 2,6 3,6 17, 17, 19, EU- 113,3 124,83 16, , , ,21 Other Europe 14,66 12,66 7,49 1,48 1,48 12,76 Others 38,63 43,148 44,172 44,973 44,973 46,449 Subtotal 28,13 23,984 49,779 67,891 67,93 8,223 /6 12-Jan 1, 12,1 24, 4,6 26,8 97, 72, 14, 11, 3, 3,43 21, 47,6 1,4 18, 19, 122,84 13,26 46,449 9,147 United States 3,1 43,7 63,814 8,738 8,738 7,16 7,28 CONSUMPTION 81,131 67,689 4,93 626, ,641 61,329 Algeria Australia Brazil Canada China Egypt India Iran Japan Morocco Pakistan Russia Turkey Ukraine EU- Other Europe Others Subtotal United States ENDING STOCKS 6,372,427 1,2 7,66 18,742 12,7 6,1 14,8,991 6,1 19,8 38,78 16,1 13,4 11,1 13,97 98,37 2,78 32,434 8,192 6,6 6,178 9,89 8,181 1,2 12,8 74,294 14,3 6,4 6,22 18,38 39,32 17, 14, 118,1 13,14 12,973 73,9 3,448 64,38 6,8,96 9,8 7,637 14, 13,3 68,8 14,3 6,4 6,4 18,9 3, 17, 9, 17,9 12,87 111,787,973 32,7 88,48 7, 6,4 1,2 9,23 12, 14, 72,76 14,2 6, 6,9 19, 37,4 17, 11,7 11, 14,18 112,889 76,837 31,91 68,747 7, 6,4 1,2 9,23 12, 14, 72,76 14,2 6, 6,9 19, 37,4 17, 11,7 11, 14,18 112,889 76,837 31,91 68,747 7,6 6,6 1,8 9,2 11, 14,4 73, 14,1,98 7,1 2,3 38,8 17, 13, ,83 117,234 89,749 32, ,81 Australia Canada China India Russia Ukraine EU- Others Subtotal United States 8,48 6,729 76,88 23, 6,479 2,9 1,933 41,76 181,38 21,1 22,48 3,142,7 6,378 1,7 6,133 3,2 16,644 41,761 12,73 13, ,19,36 6,8 43,293 6,9 2,64 1,126 1,63 41, ,3 14, ,222 6,893 7,992 38,819 4,1 3,791 2,6,197 4,988 13,4 14,699 1,14 6,893 7,992 38,819 4,1 3,791 2,6,29 4,988 13,417 14,699 1,116 7,868 9,342 34,819 3,6 3,991 2,87 2,918 4, 128,918 14, ,32 616,427 7,6 6,6 1,8 9,2 11, 14,4 73, 14,1,98 7,1 2,3 38,4 17, 13,3 119, 13,93 117,298 89,13 32, ,844 7,868 9,342 3,819 3,6 3,991 2,87 21,4 4, 129,94 14,74 144,699 7 January 26

8 REGIONAL WHEAT IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec IMPORTS North America 6,43,1,63,91,91 6, Latin America 16,226 14,49 14,46 14,37 14,37 1,4 EU- 1,716 13,921,912 7,2 7,2 7,2 Other Europe 1,928 1,921 4,214 1,77 1,77 1,8 Former Soviet Union 3,81 4,61 7,26 4,87 4,87 3,94 Middle East 1,923 11,7 8,834 1,347 1,347 11,2 North Africa 17,47 18,714 1,48 18,47 18,47 18,6 Sub-Saharan Africa 8,888 9,63 9,713 12,69 12,69 12,1 East Asia 13,61 12,236 1,32 18,37 18,37 13,8 South Asia 3,7 3,69 3,8 4,838 4,838,3 Southeast Asia 1,218 1,663 11,291 11,49 11,49 11,3 Oceania PRODUCTION North America 76,839 63,133 9,66 86,918 86,918 86,96 Latin America 21,428 17,94 23,633,99,99 19,62 EU- 113,3 124,83 16, , , ,21 Other Europe 14,66 12,66 7,49 1,48 1,48 12,76 Former Soviet Union 91,294 96,949 6,91 86,43 86,43 92,8 Middle East 32,19 37,991 39,486 4,963 4,963 41,92 North Africa 12,71 11,74 16,28 16,619 16,619 12,918 Sub-Saharan Africa,492,16 4,36,2,2 4,817 East Asia 94,9 91,468 87,7 93,193 93,193 97,7 South Asia 92,98 9,32 9,97 97,16 97,16 99,27 Southeast Asia Oceania 24,664 1,487 26,472 22,94 22,94 24,34 CONSUMPTION North America 4,818 44,29 46,44 47,14 47,14 47,632 Latin America 26,384,3 26,446 27,17 27,17 27,888 EU- 11,1 118,1 17,9 11, 11, 119, Other Europe 13,97 13,14 12,87 14,18 14,18 13,83 Former Soviet Union 7,222 7,3 6,874 72,7 72,7 76,4 Middle East 46,9 46,91 46,929 48,77 48,77 49,18 North Africa 29,37 29,666 3,82 32,633 32,633 33,3 Sub-Saharan Africa 13,867 13,869 14,612 16,449 16,449 17,12 East Asia 12,99 117,77 116,39 114,61 114,61 113,3 South Asia 92,69 11,4 96,791 11,7 11,7 12,74 Southeast Asia 1,23 1,44 1,438 11,1 11,1 11,17 Oceania 6,24 7,78 6,826 7,32 7,32 7, ENDING STOCKS North America 28,73 19,849 21,69 22,967 22,967 24,2 Latin America 3,11 3,38 3,247 3,398 3,398 2,64 EU- 1,933 16,644 1,63,197,29 2,918 Other Europe 3,98 3,39 2,63 3,843 3,843 3,283 Former Soviet Union 16,2 16,48 1,986 14,111 14,111 1,626 Middle East 12,134 13,17 12,87 11,324 11,324 11,99 North Africa,68,99 7,467 9,642 9,642 7,6 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,97 1,8 1,18 1,42 1,42 1,22 East Asia 79,68 63,218 46,249 41,934 41,934 38,26 South Asia 26,291 17,48 8,942 6,878 6,878 7,878 Southeast Asia 1,63 1,72 2,14 2,189 2,189 1,999 Oceania 8,248 3,386,63 7,21 7,21 8,176 /6 12-Jan 6, 1,4 7,2 1,8 3,94 11,2 18,6 12,1 13,8,3 11, ,8 19,62 122,84 13,26 91,9 41,92 12,918 4,817 98,7 99, ,34 47,631 27, , 13,93 7,64 49,18 33,3 17,12 113,3 12,74 11,17 7, 24,363 2,4 21,4 3,83 1,126 11,99 7,6 1,22 39,26 7,878 1,999 8,176 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. 8 January 26

9 RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE PRICES: International: Thai prices jumped $12 this month, with quotes currently at $296 per ton, FOB. While domestic prices continue to be supported by the mortgage scheme, most of the increase is because of currency fluctuations. Vietnam prices are currently quoted at $263 per ton, FOB. Although the soft export ban has reportedly been lifted, there are indications that limitations are still in place through the month of January. Domestic: U.S. long grain prices have strengthened over the past month, up $16, with #2/4 currently quoted at $31 per ton, FOB. This brings the price spread between Thai and U.S. rice to $ per ton. Meanwhile, U.S. medium grain prices have stabilized; current quotes for U.S. #1/4 are $1 per ton, FOB. TRADE CHANGES IN 26 Selected Exporters Australia is further increased 1, tons to, due to larger exportable supplies. With a new parboiled rice mill, China is raised 1, tons to 7,. Continuing the extraordinary export pace of, Pakistan is boosted 6, tons to a record 2.8 million. The United States is reduced 1, tons to 3.7 million due to reduced competitiveness resulting from higher prices. Selected Importers Philippines is boosted 7, to 1.8 million tons in response to indications of unusually strong first and second quarter import demand. TRADE CHANGES IN Selected Exporters Burma is raised, tons to 17, considering the stronger pace to date. Pakistan is up 3, tons to 2.6 million due to robust exports to Africa. With enhanced shipments to select African and Middle East markets, Uruguay is increased 1, tons to 7, despite reduced shipments to Brazil. Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 26 9

10 Selected Importers China is raised 1, tons to 6, based on stronger than anticipated import demand for fragrant rice. Cuba is dropped, tons to 8, due to weaker fourth quarter import demand. With stronger imports from Egypt and the United States, Jordan is increased, tons to 1,. Nicaragua is raised 4, tons to 1, due to heavy shipments from the United States. Peru is boosted to a record 14, tons because of continued import demand from Uruguay and the United States. Sub-Saharan Africa is increased 2, tons to a record 8.2 million tons, with most of the increase in Ghana, Mozambique, and Senegal. 1 Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 26

11 WORLD RICE TRADE JANUARY/DECEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS EXPORTS Argentina Australia Burma China Egypt India Pakistan Thailand Uruguay Vietnam EU- Others Subtotal Dec , ,963 2, ,1 6,6 4,421 3,172 4, 1,63 1,98 1,986 2,3 7,24 7,2 1,137 7, ,24 3,79 4,29, ,234 1,229 1,16 24,18 23,716 24,26 23, Jan ,1 4, 2,6 7, 7,1 17 1,16 24, Dec , 3, 2,2 7, 7 4, 17 1,11 21, Jan , 3, 2,8 7, 7 4, 17 1,11 22,436 United States 3,29 3,834 3,9 3,8 3,9 3,8 3,7 27,813 27, 27,116 27,766 28,291,436 26,136 IMPORTS Bangladesh Brazil Canada China Colombia Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Cuba El Salvador Ghana Guinea Haiti Honduras Indonesia Iran Iraq Jamaica & Dep Japan Korea, North Korea, South Malaysia Mexico Nigeria Nicaragua Peru Philippines Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Singapore South Africa Sri Lanka Syria Taiwan Turkey Uzbekistan UAE Yemen EU- Other Europe United States 313 1, , , , 2, , ,897 1,448 1,369 1, , 1,3 1,1 1, ,1 1, 1, , , ,79 1, , ,9 3 1, 1, , , , ,1 37 1, , , ,8 37 1, Subtotal 21,96 21,14 2,274 2,4 2,8 19,39 2,7 Other Countries Unaccounted 4,344 4,61,1,32 1,873 1,921 1,737 1,869,32 1,94 4,486 1, 4,26 1,4 27,813 27, 27,116 27,766 28,291,436 26, January 26

12 WORLD RICE PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 /6 MILLED 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec 12-Jan PRODUCTION Australia Bangladesh 24,31,187 26,12,9,9 26,7 26,7 Brazil 7,67 7, 8,79 8,976 8,976 7,8 7,8 Burma 1,44 1,788 1,73 9,7 9,7 1,44 1,44 China 124,36 122,18 112,462 1,363 1, ,4 127,4 Egypt 3,7 3,7 3,9 4,128 4,16 4,193 4,2 India 93,34 71,82 88,28 8,31 8,31 8, 8, Indonesia 32,96 33,411 3,24 34, 34, 34,9 34,9 Japan 8,242 8,89 7,91 7,944 7,944 8, 8, Korea, South,1 4,927 4,41,, 4,7 4,768 Pakistan 3,882 4,479 4,848,2,2,4,4 Philippines 8,4 8,4 9,2 9,44 9,44 9, 9, Taiwan 1,24 1,271 1,164 1,11 1,11 1, 1, Thailand 17,499 17,198 18,11 17,7 17,7 17,9 17,9 Vietnam 21,36 21,27 22,82 22,627 22,627 22, 22, EU- 1,632 1,731 1,728 1,864 1,864 1,741 1,798 Others 27,971 28,89 3,73 3,97 3,97 31,87 31,742 Subtotal 392,38 37,93 384, , , , ,788 United States 6,714 6,36 6,42 7,4 7,4 7,9 7,88 399,72 377, ,382 42,71 42,13 46,83 46,876 CONSUMPTION Australia Bangladesh,3 26,1 26,7 26,9 26,9 27, 27, Brazil 8,3 8,1 8,687 9,1 9,1 9,21 9,21 Burma 9,9 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,4 China 134,81 134,8 13, 13,1 13,1 13,2 13,2 Egypt 3,1 3,2 3,2 3, 3, 3,3 3,3 India 87,611 79,86 8,38 83,11 83,11 81, 81, Indonesia 36,382 36, 36, 3,8 3,8 3,6 3,6 Iran 3, 3,7 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,1 Japan 8,779 8,742 8,37 8,3 8,3 8, 8, Korea, North 2,4 2,83 1,9 2,14 2,14 2,1 2,1 Korea, South,1,33 4,637 4,741 4,771 4,663 4,663 Pakistan 2,63 2,64 2,7 2,7 2,6 2,8 2,66 Philippines 9,4 9, 1, 1,4 1,4 1,6 1,6 South Africa Taiwan 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,1 Thailand 9,4 9,46 9,47 9,48 9,48 9,49 9,49 Vietnam 17, 17, 18, 18, 18, 19, 19, EU- 2,444 2,97 2,9 2,29 2,29 2, 2, Others 39,26 41,41 43,63 43,781 43,6 42,994 43,6 Subtotal 46,218 42, ,23 411,12 411,222 49,862 49,793 United States 3,8 3,34 3,66 3,836 3,886 4,2 4,49 41,68 46,1 41,679 41,348 41,18 413, ,842 ENDING STOCKS Australia Brazil ,342 1,67 1, Burma 929 1,229 1, China 82,169 67,224 44,928 34,991 3,91 27,191 27,191 Egypt India 24,48 11, 1,8 8, 8, 9, 9, Indonesia 4,683 4,344 4,18 2,918 2,918 3,18 3,18 Korea, South 1,66 1, 821 1, ,36 1,33 Pakistan Philippines 3,47 3,87 4,47 4,92 4,92 4,742,392 Thailand 3,116 3,32 1,76 2,46 2,46 3,46 3,46 Vietnam 3,793 4,6 4,12 3,479 3,479 2,79 2,79 Others 12,94 12,81 12,2 12, 12,8 11,91 12,168 Subtotal 138,144 19,492 8,263 71,668 71,86 6,24 6,268 United States 1, ,29 1, ,36 11,321 86,24 72,877 73,69 6,8 66,13 12 January 26

13 Notes: All data are reported on a milled basis. REGIONAL RICE IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec IMPORTS North America 1,179 1,282 1,283 1,21 1, 1,3 Latin America 2,147 2,68 2,68 2,69 2,73 2,68 EU- 1, ,79 1, 1, 97 Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East 4,329 3,97 4,1 4,3 4,37 4,33 North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 7,397 6,91 7,4 7,936 8,161 6,7 East Asia 2,128 2,166 2,948 2,31 2,1 2,66 South Asia 76 1,381 1,226 1,16 1,16 86 Southeast Asia,721,63 3,22 3,9 3,9 3,8 Oceania PRODUCTION 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 North America 6,899 6,669 6,62 7,6 7,6 7,29 Latin America 13,946 14,2 16,61 16,232 16,232 1,21 EU- 1,632 1,731 1,728 1,864 1,864 1,741 Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East 1,64 2,11 2,483 2,92 2,92 2,633 North Africa 3,616 3,746 3,941 4,169 4,21 4,234 Sub-Saharan Africa 7,27 6,992 7,32 7,861 7,861 8,3 East Asia 14,68 137, ,628 14,88 14,88 142,77 South Asia 126,248 16,6 124, , , ,144 Southeast Asia 9,732 96,639 1,93 98,1 98,1 1,916 Oceania CONSUMPTION North America 4,74 4,476 4,666 4,886 4,936,9 Latin America 1,23 1,424 16,36 17,33 16,983 17,244 EU- 2,444 2,97 2,9 2,29 2,29 2, Other Europe Former Soviet Union 1,146 1,231 1,434 1,3 1,3 1,383 Middle East 6,1 6,694 6,697 6,647 6,67 6,97 North Africa 3,384 3,429 3,491 3,41 3,41 3,66 Sub-Saharan Africa 13,26 14,14 1,16 1,88 1,88 16,1 East Asia 11,97 12,11 11,378 11,721 11,71 11,63 South Asia 121, 113,9 12,34 118, , ,41 Southeast Asia 88,19 89,449 9,46 91,1 91,1 91,76 Oceania ENDING STOCKS North America 1, ,338 1,338 9 Latin America 2,637 2,83 3,762 4,4 4,114 3,46 EU ,129 1,134 1,12 Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East 2,1 1,299 1,17 1,63 1,663 1,894 North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 2,177 2,696 2,291 2,4 2,17 1,683 East Asia 86,41 7,96 47,73 38,62 38,232 3,799 South Asia,21 11,643 11,797 9,242 9,187 1,236 Southeast Asia 16,373 17,7 1,822 14,164 14,139 14,914 Oceania Jan 1,27 2, ,33 2 6,7 2, ,8 /6 7,288 1,21 1, ,633 4,241 8,3 142, ,144 1,826 71,124 17,244 2, 23 1,383 6,972 3,66 16,1 11,63 116,28 91, ,16 1, , ,88 3,887 9,741 1, NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. 13 January 26

14 COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: Brazil Corn Series Revised: USDA has revised down its consumption series and raised its stock series beginning in 21/2, based on official information released by government agency CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento). Because the 24/ harvest fell by 7 million 4, tons to just 3 million tons, and based on the 3, beginning stocks estimate of 4 million tons, 3, government and private forecasters foresaw, imports at 4 to 6 million tons and strong domestic prices. However, as the year 2, progressed and prices remained low with very 1, little import activity, it became evident that 1, stocks were much higher than originally, thought. Brazil Corn Data Series 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ /6 New Feed Old Feed New E. Stocks Old E. Stocks CONAB has explained that the error was in overestimating feed consumption, particularly by the poultry sector. For example, the production cycle for broilers has been shortened by about one-third, leading to reduced feed consumption. Forecasting stocks in Brazil is a challenge due to the large number of livestock and poultry operations as well as the difficulty in measuring stocks held by small producers. (A spreadsheet showing the changes can be found on the Grain and Feed website at MT ' PRICES: Domestic: December export bids for #2 yellow 14 corn were up sharply by $7 to nearly $13/MT. 13 December export bids for #2 yellow sorghum (Texas Gulf) were up over $3 to $96/MT. 12 U.S. Gulf Export Bids Prices strengthened because of higher barge rates 11 and concerns over weather in South America. However, the increase was tempered by relatively 1 weak export demand. 9 $/MT TRADE CHANGES IN /26 Selected Exporters 8 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar- Sorghum (Texas Gulf) Jun- Sep- Corn Dec- United States corn is down by 1. million tons to 47. million because of reduced foreign demand. 14 Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 26

15 Argentina corn is down by 2, tons to 12. million because of a reduced production forecast. Brazil corn is up by 7, tons to 1. million and imports are reduced by 3, tons to 7,, as a result of lower domestic use and higher stocks. Selected Importers Canada corn is cut by, tons again this month to 1. million, the lowest in 6 years, based on slow purchases, ample feed grain supplies, and the additional import duties imposed on U.S. corn last month. EU- corn is up by, tons to 3. million as import licenses are up 7 percent over last year. Grain: World Markets and Trade, January 26 1

16 WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 EXPORTS Argentina 9,89 13, 1,834 Australia,323 2,472 6,72 Brazil 3,897 3,246 6,191 Canada 2,443 1,712 3,474 China 8,63 1,336 7,723 South Africa 1,23 1, Russia 2,668 3,492 1,767 Ukraine 3,827 3,42 3,811 EU- 7,69 9,736 2,342 Others 3,93 4,184 4,816 Subtotal 48,719 7,843 48,48 24/ 9-Dec 14,76,13 1,4 3,217 7,617 1,2 1,493 6,419,29 4,8 1,113 24/ 12-Jan 14,379,8 1,4 3,217 7,617 1,2 1,37 6,43,114 4,64,896 /6 9-Dec 13,21 6,17 8 3,6 6, 1, 8 6,38 4,4 4,36 47,38 /6 12-Jan 13,1 6,17 1, 3,6 6, 1, 8 6,38 4,4 4,3 47,84 United States 3,964 46,428 4,77,4,4 3,34 2,34 12,683 14,271 12,6 11,68 11,441 1,73 1,19 IMPORTS Algeria 2,4 1,696 1,788 Brazil Canada 4,188 4,98 2,81 Chile 1,428 1,11 1,148 China 1,963 1,83 1,33 Colombia 2,1 2,42 2,214 Costa Rica Dominican Republic 1, Ecuador Egypt 4,931 4,867 3,747 Guatemala Indonesia 1,149 1,633 1,436 Iran 1,83 2,17 2,233 Israel 1,466 1,382 2,12 Japan 19,94 2,321 19,982 Jordan Korea, North Korea, South 8,848 8,886 8,992 Libya Malaysia 2,4 2,48 2,41 Mexico 9,4 8,766 8,873 Morocco 1,23 1,212 1,326 Peru ,114 Russia Saudi Arabia 7,268 8,926 7,22 South Africa Syria 1,68 1,198 1,41 Taiwan 4,874 4,829,114 Thailand 7 6 Tunisia 1,449 1, Turkey 1,247 1,63 1,21 Venezuela Zimbabwe EU-,94 6,721 7,616 United States 2,41 2,43 2,241 2,1 78 2,337 1,11 2,7 2, ,1 47,32 6 3,7 1,834 19, ,71 6 2,4 8,996 1,97 1,27 7 7,7 26 2,1 4,68 1 1, ,3 3,228 2,242 2, ,333 1,22 2,6 2, ,31 41, ,683 1,74 19, , ,4 8,99 1,993 1, , ,194 4, , ,332 2,242 2,1 1,1 2, 1,21 2,3 2,31 6 1,1 47, ,1 1,4 19,48 1, 8,3 2, 1,34 2,1 1,7 6 7,9 3 1,8 4, ,14 2,2 2,1 8 1, 1,21 2,3 2,41 6 1,1 47, ,1 1,3 19,48 1, 8,3 2, 1,34 2,1 1,17 6 7,9 3 1,6 4, ,64 2,2 Subtotal 94,928 97,412 94,124 93,491 93,83 92,84 92,4 Other Countries,692,69,898 Unaccounted 2,63 1,169 2,63 6,684 1,483 6,3 1,33,76 2,13,86 1,79 12,683 14,271 12,6 11,68 11,441 1,73 1,19 16 January 26

17 WORLD COARSE GRAINS PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec PRODUCTION Argentina 18,7 19,44 18,96 23,92 23,92 21,298 Australia 12,247 6,62 14,861 11,6 11,6 12, Brazil 36,79 47,97 44,881 37,84 37,84 4,629 Canada 22,61 19,892 26,326 26,447 26,447,983 China 122,24 13,7 123,93 137,93 137,93 137,6 Egypt 7,8 7,7 6,81 6,84 6,84 7,1 India 34,682,66 37,81 31,99 31,99 31,46 Indonesia 6, 6,1 6,3 6, 6, 6,6 Mexico 27,17 26,43 3,9 29, 29, 27,48 Romania 8,46 8,36 7,96 13,8 13,8 1, Russia 3,1 33,4 3, 29, 29, 29, South Africa 1,42 1,126 1,363 12,29 12,29 8,23 Ukraine 17,31 17,11 1,6 23, 23, 18,37 EU- 14,9 138,61 122,973 1,94 1,6 13,128 Others 131, ,12 14,69 147,9 147,9 14,937 Subtotal 63,7 629, , ,79 688,81 67,78 /6 12-Jan 2,498 12, 4,629, ,6 7,1 31,46 6,6 27,48 1, 27,6 8,23 18,37 131,28 14,837 69,728 United States 261, ,719 27,98 319,42 319, ,6 298,736 CONSUMPTION 891, ,67 912,871 1,8,242 1,8,218 93,634 Argentina Brazil Canada China Egypt India Indonesia Japan Korea, South Malaysia Mexico Romania Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa EU- Others Subtotal United States ENDING STOCKS 7,629 36,4, 132,87 12,17 33,9 7,3 2,142 9,3 2,44 3,36 7,9 29, 7,232 9,18 134, , ,69 216,8 9,49 7,427 38,3 22, ,41 11,989 26,7 7, 2,47 9,11 2, 3,83 8, 29,8 7,463 9,72 136,86 176,169 68, ,667 9,389 7,37 38,863 23, ,61 1,77 36, 7,3 2,437 9,16 2,3 37,232 8,3 33, 8,83 9,219 13, , ,194 2,98 942,12 9,8 41,969 23, ,212 11,68 32,1 7,2 2,13 9,3 2,4 38,24 1,9 29,3 6,814 9,73 139, ,32 73,487 24,33 97,84 9,8 41,69 23, ,212 11,68 32,1 7,2 2,13 8,998 2,4 38,226 1,9 29,3 6,814 9,9 139, ,44 73,272 24,276 97,48 9,73 44,9,28 143,8 12,38 31,38 7,2 19,83 8,84 2, 39,1 1,8 29,3 7,614 9,23 134,94 198, ,69 238,72 971,641 Canada China Mexico Russia EU- Others Subtotal United States 3,1 8,1 4,274 6,73 21,213 29,2 1,4 4,37 19,77 3,13 66,369 3,887 7,24 21,3 3, ,81 3,94 168,7 4,91 4,481,99 2,93 12,629 39,98 11,71 28, ,474 6,339 36,89,89 2,766 22,72 39,77 114,66 8,78 172,824 6,33 36,642,86 2,694 22,74 44,68 118,344 8,8 177,144,749 26,669 4,61 1,861 16,243 33,839 88,976 6,841 14,817 98,464 8,773 43,29 24, ,8 12,38 31,38 7,2 19,83 8,84 2, 39,1 1,8 28,2 7,614 9,23 134,94 197,22 73,9 24,72 97,711,44 3,722 4,8 1,89 17,668 38,19 98,194 66,73 164, January 26

18 REGIONAL COARSE GRAINS IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec IMPORTS North America 1,629 1,47 13,19 13,7 13,34 14,6 Latin America 9,387 9,91 1,399 1,612 1,824 1,97 EU-,94 6,721 7,616 3,228 3,332 3,14 Other Europe 1, , Former Soviet Union ,44 1,17 1,12 1,9 Middle East 14,483 16,869 16,27 17,684 17,78 16,4 North Africa 1,43 9,143 8,27 11,23 11,418 1,93 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,449 2,88 1,666 2,994 2,43 1,79 East Asia 36,12 36,114 3,791 3,2 3,19 3,42 South Asia Southeast Asia 4,199 4,66 3,987 3,44 3,44 3,38 Oceania PRODUCTION North America 311,481 29,64 331,19 37,44 37,419 3,19 Latin America 67,8 79,31 76,277 7,48 7,48 8,11 EU- 14,9 138,61 122,973 1,94 1,6 13,128 Other Europe 21,86 22,3 18,842 28,869 28,869 24,883 Former Soviet Union 61,778 6,724,371 62,86 62,86 6,7 Middle East 14,489 1,643 1,817 16,798 16,798 16,938 North Africa 9,33 9,612 11,77 11,943 11,943 9,389 Sub-Saharan Africa 72,86 68,72 76,86 77,87 77,87 76,46 East Asia 124,47 133,4 126,24 14,272 14, ,991 South Asia 38,684 3,8 42,31 36, 36, 36,2 Southeast Asia 18,2 18,264 19,419 19,772 19,772 2,4 Oceania 12,867 7,272 1,481 12,27 12,27 12,67 CONSUMPTION North America 277, ,66 287,1 32,422 32,326 32,2 Latin America 64,26 66,31 67,71 73,331 72,971 7,688 EU- 134, ,86 13, , , ,94 Other Europe 2,437 2,969 2,744 24,71 24,69 24,689 Former Soviet Union,784 2,781 6,6 4, 4, 1,699 Middle East 27,82 28,94 32,489 32,32 32,416 33,18 North Africa 19,479 19,162 19,46 21,261 21,261 21,76 Sub-Saharan Africa 72,4 69,372 7,83 77,419 77,286 78,96 East Asia 169, ,76 17, , ,21 179,42 South Asia 37,931 31,184 4,32 36,68 36,68 3,94 Southeast Asia 21,998 22,16 21,683 22,48 22,48 23,19 Oceania 6,9,96 7,23 7,43 7,3 7,3 ENDING STOCKS North America 2,826 37,962 38,44 7,992 7,99 76, Latin America 3,899 9,344 11,449 4,191 8,76,169 EU- 21,213 21,3 12,629 22,72 22,74 16,243 Other Europe 2,4 3,8 2,17 4,941 4,87 3,9 Former Soviet Union 11,44 11,976 6,17 7,677 7,71,778 Middle East 3,41,498,269 6,439 6,43,62 North Africa 1,166 1,19 1,988 3,63 3,727 2,184 Sub-Saharan Africa 3,976 3,886,122,666,66 3,662 East Asia 9,483 71,462,79 41,734 41,788 31,7 South Asia 1, , Southeast Asia 1,6 1,18 2,8 1,972 1,964 2,37 Oceania 2,34 1,1 2,297 2,2 2,2 1,74 /6 12-Jan 14,1 1,87 3, ,9 16,1 1,93 1,89 3,42 3, ,199 79,31 131,28 24,783,22 16,938 9,389 76,46 143,991 36,2 2,4 12,67 34,63 74, ,94 24,639,49 33,8 21,76 78,96 179,42 3,94 23,19 7,3 76,728 9,4 17,668 3,861,472,66 2,281 3,62 3, ,79 1,74 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. 18 January 26

19 WORLD CORN TRADE OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 EXPORTS Argentina 8,81 12,349 1,439 Brazil 3,87 3,181,818 Canada China 8,611 1,244 7,3 Paraguay Romania South Africa 1,182 1, Thailand Ukraine ,238 EU- 2,849 1,99 49 Others 1,4 1,296 2,281 Subtotal 27,27 37,12 3,319 24/ 9-Dec 14,2 1, , , ,3 2 2,16 3,96 24/ 12-Jan 13,72 1, , , , ,162 3,98 /6 9-Dec 12, , 4 8 1, 2,3 6 1,89 27,39 /6 12-Jan 12, 1, 1 6, 4 8 1, 2,3 6 1,8 27,8 United States 47,271 4,924 48,88 4,223 4,223 48, 47, 74,46 78,44 79,127 76,179 7,821 7,89 7,3 IMPORTS Algeria 1,37 1,643 1,76 Brazil Canada 4,22 3,846 2,33 Chile 1, ,43 China Colombia 1,911 2,112 1,999 Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic 1, Ecuador Egypt 4,9 4,848 3,743 El Salvador Guatemala Indonesia 1,149 1,633 1,436 Iran 1,261 2,17 1,87 Israel 1, ,377 Japan 16,39 16,863 16,781 Jordan Korea, North Korea, South 8,621 8,786 8,783 Malaysia 2,4 2,48 2,41 Mexico 4,76,269,739 Morocco 829 1,4 1,183 Peru ,41 Philippines Russia Saudi Arabia 1,268 1,424 1,621 South Africa Syria Taiwan 4,661 4,681 4,91 Tunisia Turkey 1,193 1,47 1,23 Venezuela Vietnam Zimbabwe EU- 3,81 4,327,72 United States , 2,237 1, 2 2,1 69 1,1 4, ,6 1,3 16, ,638 2,4,921 1,4 1, , ,6 4, , 2, 281 2, ,237 1,81 2 2, ,31 431, ,8 1,26 16, ,638 2,4,921 1,423 1, , ,694 4, , ,9 1, 2, 1,1 2 2,1 6 1,1 4, ,3 9 16, 4 8,4 2, 6,7 1,3 1, 2 1,4 2 1,3 4, , 1,9 7 1, 1,1 2 2,2 6 1,1 4, ,3 8 16, 4 8,4 2, 6,7 1,3 1, ,4 2 1,1 4, , Subtotal 69,746 73,617 73,4 7,82 7,884 7,3 7,1 Other Countries 3,71 3,2 3,81 Unaccounted 1,8 87 2,222 4, 1,77 3,899 1,38 3,81 1,7 3,86 1,38 74,46 78,44 79,127 76,179 7,821 7,89 7,3 19 January 26

20 WORLD CORN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS PRODUCTION Argentina Brazil Canada China Egypt India Indonesia Mexico Nigeria Philippines Romania Serbia and Montenegro South Africa Thailand Turkey Ukraine EU- Others Subtotal United States CONSUMPTION Brazil Canada China Egypt India Indonesia Japan Korea, South Malaysia Mexico Nigeria Romania Serbia and Montenegro South Africa EU- Others Subtotal United States ENDING STOCKS Brazil China Japan Mexico South Africa EU- Others Subtotal United States 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 9-Dec 14,7 1, 1, 19, 3,1 44, 42, 3, 8,389 8,999 9,6 8,84 114,88 121,3 11,83 13,29 6,16 6,,74,78 13,1 11,1 14,72 13,6 6, 6,1 6,3 6, 2,4 19,28 21,8 22,63,,2, 6, 4, 4,43 4,9, 7, 7,3 7,2 12,,4,8 3,8 6,274 1, 9,67 9,7 11,716 4, 4, 4,1 4, 2, 2,1 2, 3, 3,641 4,18 6,8 8,8,142 49,36 39,876 3,348 46, 49,88 1,47,83 37,41 373, ,761 48, , ,767 6, ,917 98,918 61, ,39 78,328 3, 3,8 36,3 38,9 11,96 12,76 11,228 1,4 123,1 1,9 128,4 131, 11,2 1,9 9, 1,6 13, 12, 13,2 13,4 7,3 7, 7,3 7,2 16,3 16,8 16,9 16,7 8,73 8,746 8,722 8,61 2,44 2, 2,3 2,4 23,6 24,7 26,4 27,9,3,2, 6,3 6,8 7,2 7,3 9,4 4,8 4,8 4,4,3 8,446 8,2 8,677 8,9,8 49,26 46,814 2, 93,236 92,8 99,69 16, ,6 424, ,736 46,93 2,941 2, , , ,1 6, ,38 681,39 1,637 6,498 8, ,788 64,973 44,82 36, 1,393 1,47 1,339 1,1 3,396 3,238 4,372,13 1,943 2,443 2,96 3,72 2,66 4,826 3,181 6,329 12,47 14,4 14,87 2,463 18,292 97,48 79,4 72,97 4,1 27,63 24,337 3,63 148,843 1,83 13, ,628 24/ /6 /6 12-Jan 9-Dec 12-Jan 19, 17,3 16,8 3, 42, 42, 8,84 9,47 9,47 13,29 13, 134,,78,9,9 13,6 13, 13, 6, 6,6 6,6 22,63 2, 2, 6, 7, 7,,,, 12, 9, 9, 6,274 6,3 6,3 11,716 7, 7, 4, 4,14 4,14 3, 3, 3, 8,8 7,2 7,2 3,348 46,94 47,47,83 4,16 4,316 48, ,421 41, ,914 28, ,26 78,3 677, ,6 38, 4,8 4, 1,4 11, 11, 131, 134, 134, 1,6 11,3 11,3 13,4 13,4 13,4 7,2 7,2 7,2 16,7 16,6 16,6 8,61 8,4 8,4 2,4 2, 2, 27,9 28,4 28,4 6,3 6,8 6,8 9,4 9,4 9,4,3,6,6 8,9 8,9 8,9 2,,6,6 16,637 1,624 14,414 46,32 461,124 48, ,7 224, ,9 681,12 68,43 686,29 4,618 1,818 6,18 36, 26, 3, 1,1 1,26 1,26 4,996 3,88 3,791 3,72 1,372 1,372 6,346 4,74,616 2,6 18,427 18,6 77,268 7,28 66,638 3,697 61,44 61,624 13,96 118, ,262 2 January 26

21 REGIONAL CORN IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec IMPORTS North America 8,3 9,489 8,113 8,439 8,439 8,9 Latin America 8,698 9, 9,839 9,84 1,43 1,37 EU- 3,81 4,327,72 2, 2,17 2, Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East 6,78 7,668 7,91 7,9 7,88 7,1 North Africa 8,299 8,413 7,673 9,67 9,88 9,4 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,42 2,28 1,334 2,463 2, 1,3 East Asia 3,98 3,67 3,687 29,97 29,97 3, South Asia Southeast Asia 4,19 4,61 3,962 3,43 3,43 3,37 Oceania PRODUCTION North America 27,166 6,46 287, , ,384 31,198 Latin America 9,7 7,483 67,411 6,321 6,321 7,48 EU-,142 49,36 39,876 3,348 3,348 46,94 Other Europe 16,42 17,767 1,13 23,444 23,444 2,32 Former Soviet Union 6,818 8,48 11,3 1,3 1,3 13,1 Middle East 2,77 2,983 3,382 3,932 3,932 4,432 North Africa 6,362 6,22,942,982,982 6,12 Sub-Saharan Africa 3,788 34,79 36,877 4,788 4,788 36,73 East Asia 11,76 123,74 117, , , ,914 South Asia 16,49 14,24 17,87 16,72 16,72 16,62 Southeast Asia 17,89 17,972 19,122 19,412 19,412 2,9 Oceania CONSUMPTION North America 236,6 238,24 249, ,97 263, 264,319 Latin America 6,14 7,641 9,4 63,47 63,87 6,9 EU-,8 49,26 46,814 2, 2,,6 Other Europe 16,214 16,79 16,624 19,67 19,6 2,1 Former Soviet Union 7,1 7,921 11,44 12,8 12,8 11,3 Middle East 9,348 9,692 11,38 11,6 11,46 11,66 North Africa 14,93 14,334 13,98 14,94 14,94 1,7 Sub-Saharan Africa 36,218 34,63 36,96 39,2 39,7 39,27 East Asia 14,913 18,11 16,73 163, 163, 16,82 South Asia 16,31 1,11 16,387 16,4 16,4 16,2 Southeast Asia 21,74 21,896 21,38 22,16 22,16 22,8 Oceania ENDING STOCKS North America 4,3 31,92 29,82 6,382 6,49 66,798 Latin America 2,99 8,44 1,191 2,973 7,4 4,11 EU- 2,66 4,826 3,181 6,329 6,346 4,74 Other Europe 1,7 2,84 1,68 4, 4,166 3,28 Former Soviet Union 1,7 1,32 1,349 2,229 2,11 1,934 Middle East 636 1,61 1,24 1,819 1,783 1,49 North Africa ,14 1, Sub-Saharan Africa 2,892 3,338 3,672 4,931 4,96 2,726 East Asia 88,778 69,121 49,267 4,343 4,343 3,487 South Asia 1, Southeast Asia 1, 1,1 2,3 1,942 1,934 2,7 Oceania /6 12-Jan 8,4 1,27 3, ,8 9,4 1,63 3, 3, ,23 7,48 47,47 2,12 13,1 4,432 6,12 36,73 13,914 16,62 2, ,99 6,3,6 19,9 11,3 11,6 1,7 39,27 16,82 16,2 22,8 4 66,91 8,28,616 3,236 1,86 1,49 1,89 2,71 34, ,49 14 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. 21 January 26

22 WORLD BARLEY TRADE OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec EXPORTS Argentina Australia 4,9 2,19 6,14 4,481 4,481, Canada 1, ,937 1,476 1,476 2, Kazakhstan Russia 2,664 3,66 1,736 1,488 1,488 8 Turkey Ukraine 3,134 2,334 2,7 3,992 3,992 4, EU- 3,236 6, ,8 3,881 3,3 Other Europe Others Subtotal 17,72 16,199 14,44 16,44 16,64 16,6 /6 12-Jan 2, 2, , 3,3 4 16,6 United States IMPORTS 17,89 16,71 14,824 17,19 17,314 16,9 Algeria Brazil China Colombia Iran Israel Japan Jordan Korea, South Kuwait Libya Mexico Morocco Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa Syria Taiwan Tunisia Turkey UAE Ukraine EU- Other Europe United States Subtotal Other Countries Unaccounted , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1,1 3 1, , , , ,49 1,1 3 1, , , , , , , , ,9 16, , , , , ,9 22 January 26

23 WORLD BARLEY PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec PRODUCTION Algeria ,22 1,314 1,314 4 Australia 8,28 3,86 1,387 7,72 7,72 8, Canada 1,846 7,489 12,328 13,186 13,186 12, China 2,893 3,322 2,717 2,9 2,9 2,8 Iran 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, Iraq 1, 1,1 1, 1, 1, Japan Kazakhstan 2,2 2,2 2,1 1, 1, 1, Morocco 1,1 1,669 2,62 2,76 2,76 1,12 Russia 19, 18,7 18, 17,2 17,2 16, Syria 1,3 92 1, Turkey 6,9 7,2 6,9 7,4 7,4 7,2 Ukraine 1,186 1,364 6,8 11,1 11,1 9, EU- 6,962 6,9 4,826 61,742 61,73 3,12 Other Europe 3,324 3,266 2,46 4,1 4,1 3,28 Others 9,71 9,8 11,6 11,98 11,98 11,17 Subtotal 136,91 128,937 13, ,8 147,269 13,91 /6 12-Jan 4 8, 12, 2,8 2, 1, 19 1, 1,12 1,8 7 7,2 9, 3,127 3,38 11,17 13,66 United States,47 4,94 6,9 6,91 6,91 4,62 4,613 CONSUMPTION 141, , ,976 13,349 13,36 13,211 Algeria Australia Canada China Iran Japan Kazakhstan Mexico Morocco Russia Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey Ukraine EU- Other Europe Others Subtotal United States ENDING STOCKS 6 2,8 1,271 4, 2,1 1,6 1,6 8 1,7 14,,71 1,1 6,6 7, 3,871 2,84 12,49 13,196,661 13,87 7 2,7 7,9 4,9 2,1 1,6 1,9 8 2, 1,,81 1,1 6,8 7,4 4,4 2,89 11,899 13,4,179 13, , 9,893 4,7 2,2 1,63 1,9 8 2,3 18,6 7,1 1, 7,1 6, 6,877 2,7 14, ,46 4,99 146,36 1,1 3, 1,77 4,9 2,9 1,6 1, 9 2,7 16,,41 1,3 7,3 6,4 2,9 3,64 13,86 137,277, ,949 1,1 3, 1,77 4,9 2,9 1,6 1, 9 2,7 16,,41 1,3 7,3 6,4 2,9 3,64 13, ,244, , ,3 1,8, 2,9 1,6 1,4 9 2,7 16,1 6,1 1,4 72,3 3,19 16, ,94 4,79 142,744 Australia Canada Russia Turkey Ukraine EU- Others Subtotal United States 1,767 2,47 4, ,324 9,867 6,249 26,394 2,6 28, ,47 4, ,424 8,488 7,37,84 1,1 26,94 1,887 2,12 2, ,287 7,437 19,41 2,619 22,34 1,89 3,489 2, ,234 1,611 9,697 29,638 2,796 32,434 1,89 3,489 2, ,234 1,622 9,73 29,682 2,796 32,478 1,289 3,219 1, ,14 7,923 7,297 22,71 2,191 24,91 13, ,3 11,1, 2,9 1,6 1,4 9 2,7 16,1 6,1 1,4 7,2,3 2, 3,29 16, ,34 4,72 142,926 1,289 2,919 1,63 7 1,14 8,49 7,33 22,369 2,42 24, January 26

24 REGIONAL BARLEY IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec IMPORTS North America Latin America EU- 1,66 1, Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East 7,692 8,999 8,17 9,47 9,47 9,21 North Africa 2, , 1, 1,2 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia 3,4 3,34 3,47 3,747 3,79 3,7 South Asia 2 2 Southeast Asia Oceania PRODUCTION North America 17,2 13,199 19,287 2,177 2,177 18,2 Latin America 1,1 1,399 2,39 2,38 2,38 1,88 EU- 6,962 6,9 4,826 61,742 61,73 3,12 Other Europe 3,324 3,266 2,46 4,1 4,1 3,28 Former Soviet Union 34,726 34,72 29,631 33,16 33,16 29,32 Middle East 1,433 11,33 11,216 11,642 11,642 11,282 North Africa 2,134 2,43 4,79 4,936 4,936 2,212 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,72 1,48 1,764 1,871 1,871 1,87 East Asia 3,482 3,839 3,136 3,36 3,36 3, South Asia 1,734 2,6 2,3 2,17 2,17 2,17 Southeast Asia Oceania 8,68 4,26 1,787 8,12 8,12 8,9 CONSUMPTION North America 16,782 13,934 1,733 17,279 17,279 16,4 Latin America 1,729 1,9 2,139 2,3 2,3 2,3 EU- 3,871 4,4 6,877 2,9 2,9 2, Other Europe 2,84 2,89 2,7 3,64 3,64 3,19 Former Soviet Union,46 27,616 29,36 27, 27, 26,94 Middle East 17,61 17,74 19,788 19,3 19,3 2, North Africa 3,69 3,839 4,427,28,28,3 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,89 1,612 1,774 1,986 1,986 1,9 East Asia 6,87 6,949 6,719 7,1 6,973 7,11 South Asia 1,73 2,63 2, 2,16 2,16 2,19 Southeast Asia Oceania 3, 3,1 3,4 3,9 3,9 3,7 ENDING STOCKS North America 4,149 3,3 4,842 6,481 6,481,631 Latin America EU- 9,867 8,488 4,287 1,611 1,622 7,923 Other Europe Former Soviet Union 7,232 7,44 3,927 4,471 4,471 2,917 Middle East 2,744 3,84 3,72 4,8 4,8 4,72 North Africa ,442 2,4 2,4 1,12 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia 1,162 1, South Asia Southeast Asia Oceania 1, ,93 1,62 1,62 1,372 /6 12-Jan ,21 1,2 1 3,7 2 18,13 1,88 3,127 3,38 29,12 11,282 2,212 1,87 3, 2,17 8,9 16,622 2,3 2, 3,29 26,94 2,,3 1,9 7,11 2,19 3,7, , ,717 4,72 1, ,372 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. 24 January 26

25 WORLD SORGHUM TRADE OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec EXPORTS Argentina Australia Brazil China South Africa Sudan 1 1 Others Subtotal 1,121 1,1 1, ,3 /6 12-Jan 3 1 1,3 United States 6,13 4,911 4,84 4,39 4,39 4, 4, IMPORTS 7,6,912 6,26,379,383,3 Brazil Chile Israel Japan Mexico South Africa Sudan Taiwan EU- Subtotal Other Countries Unaccounted ,776 4, , , ,62 3, , , ,434 3, ,139, , ,374 2, , , ,374 2, , , ,3 3, 2, ,3,3 6 1,3 3, 2, ,3 January 26

26 WORLD SORGHUM PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec PRODUCTION Argentina 2,7 2,8 2,2 2,9 2,9 2,8 Australia 2,21 1,46 2,9 2,177 2,177 2, Brazil 773 1,9 2,13 2,22 2,22 2,3 Burkina 1,2 1,26 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,4 China 2,697 3,327 2,86 2,328 2,328 2,4 Egypt Ethiopia 1,83 1,1 1,7 2,1 2,1 1,8 India 8,39 7,6 7,33 7,3 7,3 7, Mexico,9 6,338 7,3,9,9 6, Niger Nigeria 7,8 7,8 9, 1, 1, 1, Sudan 4,47 2,93,19 2,6 2,6 3,7 Tanzania; United Republic of EU Others 4,639 4,399 4,74 4,68 4,68 4,7 Subtotal 4,263 43,6 48,462 46,3 46,3 47,91 /6 12-Jan 2, 2, 2,3 1,4 2,4 9 1,8 7, 6, 6 1, 3, ,7 47,61 United States 13,7 9,163 1,446 11, 11,23 9,848 1, CONSUMPTION 8,32 2,728 8,98 7,86 7,828 7,78 Argentina Australia Brazil Burkina China Egypt Ethiopia India Japan Mexico Niger Nigeria Sudan Others Subtotal United States ENDING STOCKS 2,3 1,6 8 1,2 2,7 7 1,83 8,3 1,77 1,7 67 7,7 4, 6,369,84 6,427 7,281 2, 1,4 1,8 1,26 2,8 9 1,1 7,1 1,7 9,9 7 7,8 3, 6,463 48,78 4,939 3,647 1,9 1,4 1,6 1,2 3, 9 1,7 7,3 1, 9,8 7 8,9 4, 7,478 2,43,638 8,91 2,6 1,7 2,1 1,3 2,4 9 2,1 7,4 1,4 9,3 9,9 3, 6,79 2,64 6,287 8,31 2,6 1,8 2,1 1,3 2,4 9 2,1 7,4 1,4 9,3 9,9 3, 6,678 2,83 6,7 8,34 2,6 1,6 2,2 1,4 2,4 9 1,8 7,4 1,3 9,6 67 1,4 3,4 6,497 2,277,462 7,739 Argentina Japan Mexico Others Subtotal United States ,718 3,246 1,49 4, ,34 2,783 1,93 3, ,13 2,97 3, , ,46 2,74 1,448 4, ,48 2,73 1,446 4, ,67 2,7 1,16 4,221 7,61 2,3 1,6 2,2 1,4 2,4 9 1,8 7,4 1,3 9,6 67 1,4 3,4 6,497 1,977,27 7, ,631 2,686 1,926 4, January 26

27 REGIONAL SORGHUM IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/ 24/ /6 9-Dec 12-Jan 9-Dec IMPORTS North America 4,837 3,38 3,2 2,931 2,913 3, Latin America EU , Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East North Africa 1 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia 1,824 1,632 1,26 1,444 1,449 1,41 South Asia 1 1 Southeast Asia Oceania PRODUCTION North America 18,97 1,1 17,746 17, 17,473 1,848 Latin America 4,82,98,38 6,18 6,18 6,378 EU Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 18,982 16,836 21, 19,89 19,89 21,36 East Asia 2,71 3,34 2,883 2,349 2,349 2,421 South Asia 8,62 7,29 7,6 7,76 7,76 7,73 Southeast Asia Oceania 2,21 1,46 2,9 2,177 2,177 2, CONSUMPTION North America 17,177 14,839 1,438 1,87 1,7 1,62 Latin America 4,437,483 4,921 6,39 6,49 6,144 EU , Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 18,8 17,11 2,48 2,844 2,844 21,19 East Asia 4,4 4,48 4,64 3,886 3,886 3,826 South Asia 8,3 7,38 7,8 7,68 7,68 7,63 Southeast Asia Oceania 1,6 1,4 1,4 1,7 1,8 1,6 ENDING STOCKS North America 2,328 1,694 1,9 2,131 2,111 2,99 Latin America EU Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 1,6 3 1, East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Oceania /6 12-Jan 3, , , 6, ,36 2,421 7,73 2 2, 14,87, ,19 3,826 7, ,6 2, NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. 27 January 26