2017/18 Olive Oil Export Forecast Rises with Slight Growth in Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service November 2017 Olive Oil Export Forecast Rises with Slight Growth in Production Million Metric Tons Olive Oil Prices Remain High with Slight Growth in Prodcution Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 USD/Ton Production Consumption Spanish Extra Virgin Price Thousand Metric Tons Non-EU Olive Oil Exporters to the United States Tunisia Morocco Argentina Chile Turkey Global olive oil production in is forecast to rise to 2.7 million tons, recovering slightly from last year. However, reports of unfavorable growing conditions in the European Union indicate production will be lower than previously forecast. Spain, the world s largest producer of olive oil, is expecting a lower crop, down 10 percent year-over-year due to poor rainfall. This is likely to be offset by growth in other producers. Portugal is forecast to achieve record production as trees that were planted in 2004 are now bearing fruit. Italy is forecast to produce 320,000 tons of olive oil, with end of September rains occurring in Puglia, the main producing region, ensuring a high-quality product. Tunisia is forecast to have above-average production with good rainfall in September, and Turkey is likely to see production growth with young trees starting to bear fruit. Global stocks are likely to tighten further, reaching their lowest level in the past 5 years, as global consumption remains strong and continues to closely follow output levels. Prices have climbed steadily from June 2016 to May 2017, after a major decline in late 2015, and have stabilized over the last few months. Even with higher production, tightening of stocks has helped push prices back to early 2015 levels. Olive oil is a premium product and demand is expected to remain strong despite higher prices stemming from lower stocks and smaller- thananticipated production. In global exports are expected to increase almost 5 percent. Despite limited production growth, the European Union is projected to maintain its exports at a relatively high level, yet below last year. The European Union is likely to lower its consumption of olive oil, replacing it with more sunflowerseed and rapeseed oils. The United States will continue to be the largest importer of olive oil, and the second-largest consumer. Although the European Union is the United States largest supplier, lower EU production, may force U.S. imports to be sourced from other countries such as Tunisia and Turkey. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 China s Population Growth, Economic Prosperity, and Changing Consumption Patterns Drive Soybean Higher Million Metric Tons China Soybean Production, Import, and Crush 2007/ / / / / / / / / /17 Production Import Crush Global soybean consumption in is projected to grow over 4 percent, primarily driven by China. Soybean consumption is forecast to rise nearly 8 percent in China, as imports surge to a record 97.0 million tons. Growing population, rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and improving living standards have spurred China s meat and fish consumption, creating strong demand for protein feeds and edible oils. Rising feed production, combined with increasing high-protein ingredients in feed rations have been driving soybean imports upward for the last decade. USDA forecasts that soybean crush for feed will continue to grow, supporting the almost 5 percent growth in hog production. However, China is not only the world s largest livestock and protein feed producer, but also a major player in the vegetable oil market. Supported by strong economic growth over the last decade, the demand for edible oils has also been very robust. Over the same period, China s edible oil consumption grew by more than 50 percent. Additionally, continuing urbanization and rising incomes have significantly altered the vegetable oil market as consumers preference has been shifting towards premium oils (socalled golden oils). Currently, soybean oil accounts for half of the total edible vegetable oil consumption, while laurics including palm oil, dropped to only 8 percent. As new trends develop and as consumers shift their preferences, there has been a stronger demand for other golden oils as well (rapeseed, peanut, sunflower, and cottonseed), which will replace palm oil in diets. Historically, the Chinese crush sector has been expanding almost entirely on imported soybeans, with much of the domestic crop used for food consumption (such as tofu) or purchased by the State Reserve Bureau. Since arable land in China is a constraint, the government had made a

3 strategic choice to maintain its near-self-sufficiency in grains (corn, rice, and wheat) at the expense of oilseed crops. As a result, China made a conscious decision to invest in crush facilities and import soybeans, becoming the world s largest soybean importer in In 2016/17 (Oct-Sep) China accounted for nearly two-thirds of global soybean imports and continues to underpin the expansion of soybean production in Brazil and the United States. Currently, the Government of China is Production of Major Crops in China encouraging higher oilseeds production by cutting subsidies to grains. Since 2015/16, a lower purchase price for corn was prescribed, which cut corn earnings. Conversely, the government s target price-based direct subsidy for soybeans continued in 2016/17 and soybean farmers were compensated based on the difference between the market price and the target price, which resulted in relatively 75 stable soybean earnings. This year the 50 Chinese government implemented a marketoriented soybean price plus a direct subsidy to 25 soybean farmers which continues to ensure 0 that farmers will receive a subsidy for soybean planting during the current marketing year. Corn Soybean Wheat Meanwhile, the corn support policy has been adjusted which is likely to reduce corn earnings in. However, due to still high prices, corn production remains profitable. Million Metric Tons Million Metric Tons U.S. Soybean Production and Exports Production Export to China Export to ROW Export Forecast production is exported to China. It is likely that the government s support will continue to spur modest growth in soybean area and production. However, these are more likely to be consumed as food rather than feed. As a result, long-term, China seems poised to remain a key market for other soybean producers and exporters, such as the United States. China s economic prosperity, population growth, and strong demand for meat products and vegetable oils will continue to create opportunities for U.S. soybean growers. In, the United States is projected to export a record of 61.0 million tons of soybeans with China being the primary destination. In fact, nearly one-third of U.S. For an subscription, click here to register:

4 OVERVIEW Global oilseed production is forecast higher this month at 579 million tons. Soybean crop prospects are higher for Brazil and South Africa, offset by a smaller crop in the United States. The peanut production estimate is raised for India and Senegal. Larger rapeseed production is estimated for the European Union and Russia. Global sunflowerseed production is projected lower as reduced crops in Argentina, South Africa, and Ukraine more than offset gains in the European Union. Global soybean imports are raised this month on a larger forecast for China that offsets reductions for Vietnam and Tunisia. Global exports are up following a larger projection for Brazil and Paraguay. World ending stocks for soybeans are up this month, with larger stocks in China, Brazil, and Argentina outweighing smaller stocks in the United States. The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is $0.10 higher this month at $9.30 per bushel. SOYBEAN PRICES U.S. export bids in October, FOB Gulf, averaged $376/ton, down $3 from the previous month. In comparison, FOB Brazil Paranagua averaged $386/ton, up $2 from last month. FOB Argentina Up River averaged $378/ton, down $1 from last month. Harvest pressure has helped push prices lower in the United States. Early season weather issues along with tightening supplies resulted in prices trending slightly higher in Brazil. FOB ($/MT) Soybean Export Prices For the week ending November 2, U.S. soybean export commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated U.S. Gulf Brazil Paranagua Argentina Up River exports) to China totaled 17.1 million tons compared to 20.8 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 31.5 million tons, compared to 37.1 million for the same period last year.

5 OUTLOOK CHANGES Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason Algeria Soybean Meal 1,550 1, Trade changes are in line with reductions for 2016/17 Brazil Soybean Oilseed Exports 64,000 65,000 1,000 China s strong demand for protein feed China Palm Oil 4,900 4, Trade changes are in line with 2016/17 Soybean Oilseed 95,000 97,000 2,000 Following larger soybean crush forecast and domestic vegetable oil availability Colombia Palm Oil Exports Trade changes are in line with changes for 2016/17 European Union Palm Kernel Meal 2,100 2, Soybean Meal 19,500 19, Sunflowerseed Meal 3,900 3, Protein meal imports are lowered in line with reductions for 2016/17 as well as larger- thanexpected rapeseed and sunflowerseed production estimate India Palm Oil 9,400 9, Growing domestic demand Peanut Oilseed Exports 800 1, Larger production estimate Iran Soybean Meal 1,870 1, Trade changes are in line with changes for 2016/17 Japan Palm Kernel Meal 1,050 1, Trade changes are in line with changes for 2016/17 Mexico Soybean Meal 2,450 2, Trade changes are in line with changes for 2016/17 New Zealand Palm Kernel Meal 1,600 1, Trade changes are in line with changes for 2016/17 Paraguay Soybean Meal Exports 2,750 2, Meal trade lower following reduced supplies on smaller crush Soybean Oilseed Exports 5,500 6, Exports raised on larger carryover following lower current year crush Senegal Peanut Oilseed Exports Larger production estimate Tunisia Soybean Oilseed Trade changes are in line with reduction for 2016/17 Ukraine Sunflowerseed Meal Exports 4,700 4, Sunflowerseed Oil Exports 5,150 5, Lower production estimate and reduced crush forecast Rapeseed Oilseed Exports 1,700 1, Stronger pace of trade at the beginning of the marketing year Vietnam Peanut Oilseed Soybean Meal 5,500 5, Trade changes are in line with reductions for 2016/17 Note : All figures are in thousand metric tons. Soybean Oilseed 2,300 1,

6 2016/17 TRADE CHANGES Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Algeria Soybean Meal 1,500 1, Argentina Soybean Oilseed Exports 6,900 7, Burma Palm Oil Palm Oil 4,650 4, China Rapeseed Oilseed 4,150 4, Soybean Oilseed 92,500 93, Colombia Palm Oil Exports European Union Palm Kernel Meal 2,150 2, Soybean Meal 19,000 18, Palm Oil 9,000 9, India Soybean Meal Exports 1,800 2, Soybean Oil 3,500 3, Indonesia Iran Soybean Oilseed 2,400 2, Palm Kernel Meal Exports 4,100 4, Soybean Meal 1,700 1, Sunflowerseed Oil Japan Palm Kernel Meal 1,000 1, Korea, South Soybean Meal 1,900 1, Mexico Soybean Meal 2,200 2, New Zealand Palm Kernel Meal 1,550 1, Pakistan Sunflowerseed Oilseed Paraguay Soybean Meal Exports 2,750 2, Taiwan Soybean Oilseed 2,450 2, Tunisia Soybean Oilseed Peanut Oilseed Vietnam Soybean Meal 5,150 4, Note: All changes based on trade data. All figures are in thousand metric tons. Soybean Oilseed 1,900 1,

7 Questions may be directed to: Bill George (202) Agata Kingsbury (202) Justin Choe (202) Sarah Gilleski (202) To download the tables in the publication, go to the Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): ( select PSD Reports, and then on the left click Oilseeds. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and ): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

8 List of Tables SUMMARY TABLES Table 01 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 02 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 03 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Table 04 Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 05 Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Table 06 Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) COMMODITY TABLES Table 07 Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Table 08 Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Table 09 Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 10 Soybeans and Products: World Trade Table 11 Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Table 12 Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 13 Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Table 14 Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution HISTORICAL TABLES Table 15 World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 16 World Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Table 17 World Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 18 World Sunflowerseed and Products Supply and Distribution Table 19 World Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution COUNTRY TABLES Table 20 United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 21 United States Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 22 Brazil Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 23 Argentina Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Years Table 24 South East Asia Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 25 Middle East Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 26 European Union Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 27 China Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Table 28 India Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution PRICES Table 29 Table 30 Table 31 Oilseed Prices Protein Meal Prices Vegetable Oil Prices

9 Table 01: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Crush Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

10 Table 02: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

11 Table 03: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

12 Table 04: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production United States Brazil Argentina China India Other Total China European Union Mexico Japan Thailand Pakistan Indonesia Turkey Egypt Iran Other Total Exports Brazil United States Canada Argentina Paraguay Ukraine Australia Other Crush Total China United States Argentina European Union Brazil India Russia Ukraine Canada Indonesia Mexico Pakistan Malaysia Japan Turkey Other Total Ending Stocks Argentina Brazil China United States European Union Other Total Major Oilseeds includes Copra, Cottonseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybeans and Sunflowerseeds.

13 Table 05: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production China United States Argentina Brazil European Union Other Total European Union Vietnam Indonesia United States Korea, South Thailand Japan Other Total Exports Argentina Brazil United States Ukraine Canada Indonesia Malaysia Other Total China European Union United States Brazil India Mexico Vietnam Russia Japan Thailand Other SME Total China European Union United States Brazil India Mexico Vietnam Other Total Ending Stocks Brazil Argentina India Indonesia European Union Other Total Major Protein Meals include Copra, Cottonseed, Fish, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflower Meal.

14 Table 06: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production Indonesia China Malaysia European Union United States Argentina Brazil Other Total India European Union China United States Pakistan Bangladesh Egypt Turkey Malaysia Iran Other Total Exports Indonesia Malaysia Argentina Ukraine Canada Russia European Union Other Total China European Union India United States Indonesia Brazil Malaysia Pakistan Russia Argentina Mexico Thailand Bangladesh Egypt Japan Other Total Ending Stocks Indonesia Malaysia China India European Union Other Total Major Vegetable Oils includes Coconut, Cottonseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflowerseed oil.

15 Table 07: Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production United States 91, , , , , ,436 Brazil 86,700 97,200 96, , , ,000 Argentina 53,400 61,400 56,800 57,800 57,000 57,000 China 11,951 12,154 11,785 12,900 14,200 14,200 India 9,477 8,711 6,929 11,500 10,000 10,000 Paraguay 8,190 8,154 9,217 10,665 9,400 9,400 Canada 5,359 6,049 6,371 6,463 8,200 8,200 Other 16,285 19,467 19,250 20,906 21,502 21,652 Total 282, , , , , ,888 China 70,364 78,350 83,230 93,495 95,000 97,000 European Union 13,293 13,914 15,120 13,200 14,000 14,000 Mexico 3,842 3,819 4,126 4,126 4,300 4,300 Japan 2,894 3,004 3,186 3,175 3,300 3,300 Thailand 1,798 2,411 2,798 3,077 3,150 3,150 Egypt 1,694 1,947 1,300 2,300 2,800 2,800 Indonesia 2,241 2,006 2,274 2,650 2,600 2,600 Taiwan 2,335 2,520 2,476 2,550 2,400 2,400 Iran 301 1,311 1,864 2,050 2,300 2,250 Turkey 1,608 2,197 2,283 2,271 2,250 2,250 Other 12,697 12,883 14,670 15,712 16,539 16,072 Total 113, , , , , ,122 Exports Brazil 46,829 50,612 54,383 63,137 64,000 65,000 United States 44,594 50,143 52,860 59,157 61,235 61,235 Argentina 7,842 10,575 9,921 7,020 8,000 8,000 Paraguay 4,900 4,488 5,310 6,600 5,500 6,000 Canada 3,469 3,763 4,236 4,591 5,800 5,800 Other 5,143 6,548 5,753 7,155 6,438 6,398 Crush Total 112, , , , , ,433 China 68,850 74,500 81,500 88,000 94,000 95,000 United States 47,192 50,975 51,335 51,681 52,798 52,798 Argentina 36,173 40,235 43,267 43,246 44,840 44,840 Brazil 36,861 40,435 39,747 41,000 42,000 42,000 European Union 13,100 14,450 14,950 14,400 14,500 14,500 India 8,700 7,700 5,700 9,200 8,700 9,000 Russia 3,400 3,650 4,050 4,300 4,800 4,800 Mexico 4,030 4,175 4,400 4,600 4,720 4,720 Paraguay 3,350 3,650 3,600 3,650 3,950 3,700 Egypt 1,680 1,950 1,200 2,300 2,800 2,800 Bolivia 2,250 2,500 2,350 2,050 2,500 2,500 Iran 450 1,450 2,100 2,230 2,490 2,450 Japan 1,969 2,150 2,283 2,392 2,350 2,350 Canada 1,525 1,787 2,000 2,000 2,200 2,200 Pakistan ,250 1,680 2,000 2,000 Other 13,093 14,713 15,433 15,800 16,599 16,317 Total 242, , , , , ,975 Ending Stocks Argentina 25,271 31,700 31,700 36,500 37,130 37,550 Brazil 15,820 18,925 18,200 24,763 21,963 22,263 China 13,848 17,009 16,910 20,391 19,640 20,641 United States 2,504 5,188 5,354 8,201 11,716 11,572 European Union 1, , ,028 Other 3,506 3,978 4,408 5,524 4,764 4,843 Total 62,202 77,643 78,131 96,277 96,045 97,897 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The United States, Mexico, and Thailand are on a September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a March/February MY.

16 Table 08: Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production China 54,531 59,004 64,548 69,696 74,448 75,240 United States 36,909 40,880 40,525 40,581 41,821 41,821 Argentina 27,892 30,928 33,211 33,267 34,420 34,420 Brazil 28,540 31,300 30,750 31,730 32,500 32,500 European Union 10,349 11,416 11,811 11,376 11,455 11,455 India 6,960 6,160 4,560 7,360 6,960 7,020 Russia 2,679 2,876 3,191 3,388 3,782 3,782 Other 22,430 25,989 27,409 29,025 31,236 30,883 Total 190, , , , , ,121 European Union 18,137 19,623 19,214 18,900 19,500 19,400 Vietnam 3,344 4,311 5,094 4,900 5,500 5,200 Indonesia 3,983 3,844 4,203 4,250 4,450 4,450 Thailand 2,665 3,068 2,433 2,781 2,800 2,800 Philippines 2,335 2,204 2,617 2,450 2,750 2,750 Mexico 1,410 1,795 2,367 2,000 2,450 2,350 Korea, South 1,825 1,751 2,118 1,764 2,000 2,000 Japan 1,976 1,699 1,721 1,621 1,850 1,850 Iran 2,683 1,948 1,420 1,600 1,870 1,750 Malaysia 1,397 1,465 1,291 1,500 1,520 1,530 Other 18,189 18,956 19,413 18,948 20,073 19,952 Total 57,944 60,664 61,891 60,714 64,763 64,032 Exports Argentina 24,972 28,575 30,325 31,600 31,200 31,200 Brazil 13,948 14,290 15,407 13,762 15,250 15,250 United States 10,504 11,891 10,844 10,524 11,068 11,068 Paraguay 2,504 2,530 2,450 2,400 2,750 2,550 India 3,252 1, ,000 1,700 1,700 Other 5,536 5,556 5,875 4,689 5,445 5,465 Total 60,716 64,363 65,310 64,975 67,413 67,233 China 52,534 57,467 62,663 68,646 73,078 73,870 United States 26,775 29,282 30,044 30,250 31,025 31,116 European Union 28,142 30,242 30,942 30,242 30,642 30,542 Brazil 15,100 15,700 16,270 16,913 17,500 17,480 Vietnam 4,200 4,750 5,520 5,790 6,800 6,210 Mexico 4,575 5,050 5,750 5,750 6,170 6,050 India 3,640 4,500 4,630 5,000 5,450 5,450 Indonesia 3,825 4,100 4,178 4,250 4,350 4,350 Thailand 4,150 4,100 4,230 4,231 4,300 4,300 Iran 2,800 3,030 3,250 3,400 3,850 3,700 Japan 3,434 3,361 3,453 3,423 3,620 3,620 Russia 2,700 2,850 3,150 3,100 3,580 3,580 Egypt 2,450 2,650 2,950 3,130 3,400 3,400 Argentina 2,100 2,402 2,680 2,851 3,055 3,055 Philippines 2,200 2,350 2,550 2,700 2,850 2,850 Other 28,054 30,089 31,332 32,768 34,769 34,616 Total 186, , , , , ,189 Ending Stocks Brazil 2,484 3,812 2,910 4,000 4,063 3,800 Argentina 4,073 4,025 4,231 3,047 3,665 3,212 Vietnam India Indonesia Other 3,051 4,649 4,518 4,067 3,653 3,885 Total 10,603 13,534 12,528 12,246 12,421 11,977 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The Mexico and Thailand are on a September/August MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a March/February MY. Vietnam and the Philippines are on a January/December MY and Bolivia is on a March/February MY.

17 Table 09: Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production China 12,335 13,347 14,605 15,770 16,845 17,024 United States 9,131 9,706 9,956 10,024 10,208 10,208 Argentina 6,785 7,687 8,433 8,394 8,630 8,630 Brazil 7,070 7,760 7,630 7,870 8,060 8,060 European Union 2,489 2,746 2,841 2,736 2,755 2,755 India 1,566 1,386 1,025 1,655 1,564 1,620 Russia Other 5,205 6,005 6,327 6,729 7,233 7,129 Total 45,190 49,291 51,543 53,949 56,155 56,286 India 1,804 2,815 4,269 3,400 4,100 4,100 Bangladesh Algeria China 1, Morocco Peru Colombia Egypt Iran Mexico Other 2,957 3,026 2,933 3,142 3,098 3,108 Total 9,254 10,038 11,633 10,857 11,448 11,483 Exports Argentina 4,087 5,094 5,697 5,450 5,850 5,850 Brazil 1,378 1,510 1,550 1,241 1,450 1,450 United States ,017 1, European Union 766 1, Paraguay Russia Bolivia Other 1,007 1,059 1,003 1,201 1,109 1,099 Total 9,443 11,089 11,684 11,401 11,847 11,752 China 13,650 14,200 15,350 16,350 17,200 17,400 United States 8,576 8,600 9,145 8,998 9,434 9,434 Brazil 5,705 6,265 6,290 6,590 6,700 6,700 India 3,300 4,100 5,300 5,300 5,550 5,600 Argentina 2,844 2,401 2,831 2,870 2,795 2,795 European Union 1,990 2,040 2,285 2,205 2,155 2,155 Mexico 890 1,001 1,020 1,130 1,160 1,150 Bangladesh ,005 1,000 1,000 Egypt Algeria Iran Pakistan Morocco Colombia Japan Other 4,813 5,005 5,007 5,204 5,492 5,473 Total 45,268 47,830 52,149 53,622 55,786 55,987 Ending Stocks United States China India Argentina Brazil Other 1,363 1,337 1,260 1,091 1,012 1,065 Total 3,814 4,224 3,567 3,350 3,510 3,380 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). Mexico is on a September/August MY. Peru is on an January/December MY and Paraguay and Bolivia are on a March/February MY.

18 Table 10: Soybeans and Products: World Trade Thousand Metric Tons Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Soybean Marketing Year 2015/ / / / / /17 Exports North America 11,192 10,829 11,412 1,171 1,357 1,127 57,096 63,748 67,035 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,236 4,591 5,800 United States (Sep-Aug) 10,844 10,524 11,068 1,017 1, ,860 59,157 61,235 South America 49,853 49,183 50,711 8,319 7,664 8,354 71,883 79,685 81,805 Argentina (Oct-Sep) 30,325 31,600 31,200 5,697 5,450 5,850 9,921 7,020 8,000 Brazil (Oct-Sep) 15,407 13,762 15,250 1,550 1,241 1,450 54,383 63,137 65,000 Paraguay (Mar-Feb) 2,450 2,400 2, ,310 6,600 6,000 South Asia 417 2,008 1, India (Oct-Sep) 409 2,000 1, Other 3,848 2,955 3,404 2,191 2,380 2,271 3,350 3,957 3,413 World Total 65,310 64,975 67,233 11,684 11,401 11, , , ,433 European Union (Oct-Sep) 19,214 18,900 19, ,120 13,200 14,000 East Asia 3,912 3,501 3, , , , ,980 China (Oct-Sep) ,230 93,495 97,000 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,721 1,621 1, ,186 3,175 3,300 Korea, South (Oct-Sep) 2,118 1,764 2, ,249 1,286 1,275 Taiwan (Oct-Sep) ,476 2,550 2,400 Southeast Asia 15,660 15,903 16, ,854 8,377 8,670 Indonesia (Oct-Sep) 4,203 4,250 4, ,274 2,650 2,600 Malaysia (Oct-Sep) 1,291 1,500 1, Philippines (Jan-Dec) 2,617 2,450 2, Thailand (Sep-Aug) 2,433 2,781 2, ,798 3,077 3,150 Vietnam (Jan-Dec) 5,094 4,900 5, ,602 1,700 1,900 North America 3,522 3,138 3, ,053 5,217 5,360 Canada (Aug-Jul) Mexico (Sep-Aug) 2,367 2,000 2, ,126 4,126 4,300 South America 4,842 4,977 5,302 1,223 1,333 1,377 2,163 3,045 2,892 Brazil (Oct-Sep) Colombia (Oct-Sep) 1,206 1,315 1, Central America 1,173 1,188 1, Caribbean 952 1,042 1, Middle East 4,117 4,725 5, ,185 5,426 5,685 Iran (Oct-Sep) 1,420 1,600 1, ,864 2,050 2,250 Israel (Oct-Sep) Syria (Jan-Dec) Turkey (Oct-Sep) ,283 2,271 2,250 North Africa 4,496 3,550 3,630 1,995 1,630 1,765 1,946 2,873 3,460 Egypt (Oct-Sep) 2,174 1,200 1, ,300 2,300 2,800 Other 4,003 3,790 4,205 5,568 4,907 5,509 5,408 5,434 5,506 World Total 61,891 60,714 64,032 11,633 10,857 11, , , ,122

19 Table 11: Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons 2013/ / / /17 Oct Nov Production Indonesia 30,500 33,000 32,000 34,000 36,000 36,000 Malaysia 20,161 19,879 17,700 18,860 21,000 21,000 Thailand 2,000 2,068 1,804 2,000 2,200 2,200 Colombia 1,041 1,110 1,275 1,146 1,320 1,320 Nigeria Other 4,632 4,783 5,084 5,315 5,375 5,375 Total 59,304 61,810 58,833 62,291 66,865 66,865 India 7,820 9,139 8,860 9,150 9,400 9,500 European Union 6,969 6,935 6,649 6,500 6,500 6,500 China 5,573 5,696 4,689 4,881 4,900 4,800 Pakistan 2,725 2,826 2,720 3,000 3,100 3,100 Bangladesh 1,232 1,280 1,511 1,314 1,600 1,600 United States 1,220 1,143 1,307 1,367 1,395 1,395 Egypt 1,075 1,489 1,038 1,300 1,250 1,250 Philippines , Russia Burma Other 13,419 13,897 13,135 14,398 14,772 14,787 Total 41,941 44,840 42,571 44,510 45,467 45,502 Exports Indonesia 21,719 25,964 22,906 26,000 26,200 26,200 Malaysia 17,344 17,378 16,621 16,301 17,300 17,300 Guatemala Benin Papua New Guinea Other 2,564 2,468 2,551 2,716 2,558 2,673 Total 43,194 47,370 43,727 46,857 47,878 47,993 India 8,302 9,150 9,100 9,400 9,500 9,800 Indonesia 8,750 7,520 8,920 8,570 9,050 9,050 European Union 6,600 6,920 6,700 6,400 6,350 6,350 China 5,700 5,700 4,850 4,750 4,900 4,800 Malaysia 2,869 2,941 2,990 2,736 3,570 3,570 Pakistan 2,540 2,738 2,815 2,995 3,030 3,085 Thailand 1,790 1,925 1,835 1,918 2,160 2,160 Bangladesh 1,215 1,275 1,411 1,314 1,620 1,620 Nigeria 1,470 1,470 1,320 1,340 1,400 1,400 United States 1,207 1,092 1,269 1,355 1,360 1,384 Egypt 1,150 1,350 1,150 1,300 1,250 1,250 Philippines ,074 1,080 1,100 Colombia , Russia Vietnam Other 13,062 13,375 13,386 14,213 14,634 14,732 Total 57,516 58,694 59,276 59,971 62,611 62,918 Ending Stocks Indonesia 3,210 2,734 2,916 2,346 3,097 3,096 Malaysia 2,090 2,641 1,546 2,019 2,899 2,899 India Pakistan China Other 3,290 3,551 3,166 3,150 3,113 3,060 Total 9,566 10,152 8,553 8,526 10,206 9,981

20 Table 12: Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed Marketing Year 2015/ / / / / /17 Production China (Oct-Sep) 11,009 9,938 10,414 7,258 6,551 6,865 14,931 13,500 13,100 India (Oct-Sep) 2,985 3,460 3,550 1,900 2,200 2,250 5,920 7,091 7,200 Canada (Aug-Jul) 4,698 5,200 5,200 3,625 4,020 4,020 18,377 19,600 19,900 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,343 1,340 1,360 1,050 1,061 1, European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,851 14,136 14,250 10,157 10,366 10,450 21,997 20,543 22,100 Other 5,508 5,472 5,738 3,868 3,856 4,025 8,734 9,534 9,751 World Total 39,394 39,546 40,512 27,858 28,054 28,685 69,962 70,272 72,055 China (Oct-Sep) ,011 4,260 4,300 India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) Japan (Oct-Sep) ,387 2,392 2,450 European Union (Jul-Jun) ,493 4,743 4,200 Other 4,899 4,828 5,119 2,747 3,000 3,121 4,523 4,894 5,068 World Total 5,700 5,953 6,154 4,167 4,370 4,529 14,519 16,379 16,118 Exports China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) 4,100 4,670 4,550 2,770 3,150 3,120 10,282 11,100 11,000 Japan (Oct-Sep) European Union (Jul-Jun) Other , ,061 3,741 4,586 4,843 World Total 5,688 6,033 6,160 4,140 4,491 4,490 14,367 16,006 16,193 China (Oct-Sep) 11,254 10,801 11,064 8,350 8,500 8,100 19,100 17,300 18,100 India (Oct-Sep) 2,600 2,935 3,285 2,280 2,545 2,705 5,930 6,900 7,170 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,726 9,258 9,248 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,325 1,360 1,370 1,071 1,079 1,081 2,419 2,442 2,455 European Union (Jul-Jun) 13,900 14,000 14,050 10,100 10,250 10,300 25,200 25,700 25,900 Other 9,705 9,824 10,158 5,600 5,901 6,175 9,480 9,823 10,192 World Total 39,404 39,465 40,577 28,180 29,215 29,351 70,855 71,423 73,065 Ending Stocks China (Oct-Sep) ,837 2,672 2,182 1,340 1,800 1,100 India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) ,016 1,348 1,100 Japan (Oct-Sep) European Union (Jul-Jun) ,931 1,197 1,247 Other World Total ,444 4,162 3,535 6,803 6,025 4,940

21 Table 13: Sunflowerseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Marketing Year 2015/ / / / / /17 Production Argentina (Mar-Feb) 2,700 3,400 3,800 1,141 1,335 1,452 1,142 1,355 1,465 Russia (Sep-Aug) 9,173 10,858 11,000 3,510 4,167 4,311 3,530 4,192 4,337 Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,100 1,320 1, , Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 11,900 15,200 13,000 4,811 5,986 5,369 5,010 6,351 5,590 European Union (Oct-Sep) 7,721 8,573 8,700 3,888 4,212 4,239 3,042 3,296 3,317 Other 7,703 8,253 7,619 2,409 2,604 2,606 2,066 2,219 2,224 World Total 40,297 47,604 45,719 16,502 19,267 19,017 15,377 18,174 17,755 Argentina (Mar-Feb) Russia (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,295 3,700 3,800 1,430 1,640 1,600 Other ,849 2,396 2,346 4,883 6,133 5,717 World Total 1,865 2,095 1,862 5,953 7,066 7,001 7,003 8,584 8,084 Exports Argentina (Mar-Feb) Russia (Sep-Aug) ,211 1,300 1,500 1,540 2,178 2,200 Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) ,817 4,807 4,500 4,500 5,851 5,000 European Union (Oct-Sep) Other 1,042 1,425 1, World Total 2,003 2,496 1,943 6,225 7,317 7,191 8,110 10,217 9,206 Argentina (Mar-Feb) 2,834 3,304 3, Russia (Sep-Aug) 9,070 10,670 11,020 2,250 2,800 2,850 1,950 2,065 2,130 Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,452 1,862 2,012 1,600 1,850 1, ,010 Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 11,820 14,780 13, ,150 1, European Union (Oct-Sep) 8,220 8,840 8,890 6,960 7,860 7,860 4,230 4,460 4,610 Other 7,256 7,459 7,521 4,048 4,752 4,725 6,761 7,685 7,683 World Total 40,652 46,915 46,179 16,288 19,012 19,090 15,184 16,517 16,785 Ending Stocks Argentina (Mar-Feb) Russia (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total 2,271 2,559 2,018 1,323 1,327 1,064 1,492 1,516 1,364

22 Table 14: Minor Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution Thousand Metric Tons Oil, Peanut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Marketing Year 2015/ / / / / /17 Production China (Oct-Sep) 2,816 2,864 2,960 1,091 1,115 1, India (Oct-Sep) 875 1,240 1,190 1,230 1,160 1,320 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,320 1,750 1,800 Other 1,629 1,613 1,622 1,563 1,656 1, World Total 5,442 5,865 5,933 4,291 4,402 5,025 3,118 2,487 2,703 China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total Exports China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total China (Oct-Sep) 2,919 2,967 3,085 1,090 1,113 1, India (Oct-Sep) 874 1,160 1,245 1,275 1,165 1,310 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) ,570 1,420 1,380 Other 1,429 1,413 1,418 1,642 1,679 1, World Total 5,441 5,767 5,988 4,400 4,379 4,929 2,806 2,625 2,639 Ending Stocks China (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) European Union (Oct-Sep) Other World Total