Grain: World Markets and Trade

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FG04-02 April 2002 Grain: World Markets and Trade Indian Wheat & Rice Exports & Stocks Soar Million Metric Tons Exports Ending Stocks Million Metric Tons 4 30 Rice Wheat Rice Wheat /00 00/01 01/02* 99/00 00/01 01/02* *Forecast India has become a major force in the global wheat and rice export markets, and new strategies are designed to expand their position. Though India has stepped up its export pace, it continues to be plagued by mounting stocks due to rising production and attractive procurement prices that encourage farmers to sell their crops to the government. However, as part of a new strategy to continue export expansion and surmount some of the problems faced with marketing low quality product, the government plans to implement export promotion policies, supplemental to selling stocks at reduced prices. In addition to countertrade, longterm credit, and food aid, the government plans to remove export restrictions, establish Agri Export Zones, and give transportation subsidies for exports of wheat and rice from government warehouses. With these new policies, India has the potential to export even more and gain market share from competitors such asvietnam and Pakistan for rice and the United States for wheat. However, the government needs to overcome a weak infrastructure, the lack of uniform grades and standards, and quality problems. 0 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary Tables All Grain Summary... 3 U.S. Grains... 4 Foreign Countries Policies and Programs Trade Barriers Stymie Venezuelan Corn Imports... 5 Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data Wheat... 6 Rice Coarse Grains Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade Grain: World Markets and Trade, April

3 ALL GRAIN SUMMARY PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, STOCKS, AND TRADE TOTAL FOREIGN COUNTRIES, USA, AND TOTAL WORLD (MILLION METRIC TONS) 1997/ / / / / /02 WHEAT Mar 8 Apr 10 All Foreign Countries Production Consumption Ending Stocks USA Production Imports Consumption Exports Ending Stocks World Total, Trade RICE All Foreign Countries Production Consumption USA Production Imports Consumption Exports World Total, Trade TOTAL COARSE GRAINS All Foreign Countries Production Consumption USA Production Imports Consumption Exports Ending Stocks World Total, Trade WORLD TOTAL GRAIN, INCLUDING RICE All Foreign Countries Production 1, , , , , ,531.7 Consumption 1, , , , , ,638.8 USA Production Imports Exports World Total, Trade Trade data are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years. Rice production data is on a milled basis.

4 U.S. GRAINS: SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION WHEAT, CORN, SORGHUM, BARLEY, OATS, RYE, AND RICE THOUSAND METRIC TONS/HECTARES Area --Imports-- --Exports-- Domestic Domestic Ending Harvested Yield Production Mkt Yr. Trade Yr. Mkt Yr. Trade Yr. Feed Use Total Use Stocks WHEAT (MY JUNE/MAY) 1996/97 25, ,980 2,513 2,577 27,257 27,093 8,371 35,397 12, /98 25, ,534 2,583 2,530 28,315 28,090 6,818 34,212 19, /99 23, ,327 2,800 2,842 28,467 29,028 10,645 37,579 25, /00 21, ,569 2,568 2,503 29,626 29,449 7,842 35,407 25, /01 21, ,758 2,445 2,417 28,866 27,845 8,136 36,339 23, /02 19, ,278 2,722 2,700 26,535 26,500 5,443 33,367 19,944 CORN (MY SEPT/AUG) 1996/97 29, , ,655 46, , ,586 22, /98 29, , ,214 37, , ,087 33, /99 29, , ,401 51, , ,788 45, /00 28, , ,191 49, , ,496 43, /01 29, , ,156 48, , ,259 48, /02 27, , ,897 49, , ,908 41,174 SORGHUM (MY SEPT/AUG) 1996/97 4, , ,217 5,211 13,106 14,246 1, /98 3, , ,387 5,164 9,270 10,670 1, /99 3, , ,996 5,194 6,652 7,798 1, /00 3, , ,484 6,297 7,232 8,628 1, /01 3, , ,070 5,864 5,592 6,482 1, /02 3, , ,350 6,400 5,461 6,606 1,175 BARLEY (MY JUNE/MAY) 1996/97 2, , ,214 4,714 8,459 2, /98 2, , ,619 1,071 3,135 6,879 2, /99 2, , ,505 7,207 3, /00 1, , ,007 6,752 2, /01 2, , ,253 1,059 2,688 6,432 2, /02 1, , ,068 5,813 1,826 OATS (MY JUNE/MAY) 1996/97 1, ,224 1,681 1, ,758 3, /98 1, ,428 1,696 1, ,947 3,987 1, /99 1, ,409 1,856 1, ,132 4,133 1, / ,122 1,699 1, ,881 3,872 1, / ,171 1,827 1, ,034 4,021 1, / ,696 1,637 1, ,508 3, RYE (MY JUNE/MAY) 1996/ / / / / / Area --Production-- --Imports-- --Exports-- Domestic Ending Harvested Yield Rough Milled Mkt Yr. Trade Yr. Mkt Yr. Trade Yr. Total Use Stocks RICE (MY AUG/JULY) 1996/97 1, ,783 5, ,488 2,304 3, /98 1, ,301 5, ,755 3,174 3, /99 1, ,367 5, ,730 2,644 3, /00 1, ,345 6, ,804 2,847 3, /01 1, ,658 5, ,690 2,640 3, /02 1, ,663 6, ,714 2,750 3,818 1,355 Notes: Wheat trade year statistics are on July/June years. Barley, corn, sorghum, rye, and oats trade year statistics are on Oct/Sept years. Rice trade year statistics are for the subsequent calendar year.

5 F AS / G & F D Foreign Countries Policies and Programs Trade Barriers Stymie Venezuelan Corn Imports Between 1996 and 2000, Venezuela imported an average of one million tons of U.S. corn annually making it one of the U.S. s top ten markets. The imports are needed to meet the demand of the growing pork and poultry industries. Venezuela produces about 1.2 million tons of corn annually, but most of it is white corn destined for human consumption. After a record crop in 2000 left producers with a surplus of 150,000 tons, the pork and poultry industry reached an agreement with the government to purchase the surplus at a large premium to imported corn with the understanding that it would be reimbursed for much of the extra cost. Following another bumper harvest in 2001, farmers were left with a 400,000-ton surplus because the industry refused to pay the target price, $235/ton, since it had yet to be reimbursed from the previous year. Last September, frustrated by the industry s refusal to buy the local production, the government published a statement saying that it would not issue any corn import licenses until the domestic crop was completely sold. The pork and poultry producers responded by drawing down frozen meat stocks and reducing corn consumption by using non-grain feed ingredients, which are not subject to the import-licensing requirement. Now eight months into the import ban, the industry has just about absorbed the domestic corn surplus. If Venezuela lifts the ban, purchases of lower priced imports should surge in an attempt to build up stocks before the domestic crop is ready this summer. However, because of the interruption in trade, USDA estimates that Venezuela will import 900,000 tons this year, down 300,000 tons from last year Venezuelan Corn Imports Thousand Metric Tons Forecast 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 For more information, contact Robert Fox at (202) or foxr@fas.usda.gov. 5 Grain: World Markets and Trade, April 2002

6 F AS / G & F D SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK World wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast to be million tons, up 4.4 million tons from 2000/01. Global production is forecast down 3.4 million tons and is expected to remain below consumption for the third consecutive year. Global stocks are forecast down 8.7 million tons from last year to the lowest level since 1996/97. In early March, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged $128/MT, up $3 from last month. Global production is up 1.3 million tons from last month mainly due to larger crops in East Europe and Turkey. Global consumption is almost unchanged from last month, while ending stocks are up 1.6 million tons. Global wheat trade in 2001/02 is forecast down slightly with fewer exports from the United States and EU mostly offset by more exports from India, Kazakstan, and China. Imports by Iran, Russia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan were lowered, while the forecast for imports by the United States, EU, and Nigeria were raised. Selected Exporters 2001/2002 Trade Changes China up 500,000 tons to 1.5 million based on shipments of feed quality wheat to Korea and the Philippines and flour to Southeast Asia. India up 500,000 tons to 3 million tons due to a strong export pace. Kazakstan up 500,000 tons to 3.5 million due to large shipments to Iran. EU down 1 million tons to10 million based on the slow pace of export licenses and strong competition from the FSU and E. Europe. Bulgaria exports up 200,000 tons to 700,000 due to the high level of sales to the EU and North Africa. Russia down 300,000 tons to 3.5 million due to a recent slowdown in shipments. Grain: World Markets and Trade, April

7 Selected Importers EU up 1 million tons to 8 million due to the increased pace of import licenses for East European and FSU supplies. Iran down 500,000 tons to 6.0 million due to the slow pace of imports despite large purchases from Kazakstan. Nigeria up 300,000 tons based on the pace of purchases from the United States. Russia down 500,000 tons to 500,000 tons due to lower-than-expected imports from Kazakstan as Russian supplies are abundant and prices are low. United States up 150,000 tons to 2.7 million based on a strong import pace. 7 Grain: World Markets and Trade, April 2002

8 WORLD WHEAT, FLOUR, AND PRODUCTS TRADE JULY/JUNE YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 EXPORTS Argentina 9,827 9,199 11,083 11,396 11,000 11,000 Australia 15,398 16,104 17,124 16,682 18,500 18,500 Canada 21,314 14,394 19,373 17,351 16,500 16,500 India ,357 2,500 3,000 Kazakstan 3,560 2,295 6,514 3,668 3,000 3,500 Syria Turkey 1,474 2,803 1,984 1, EU 14,196 14,589 17,432 15,225 11,000 10,000 Eastern Europe 3,085 4,130 3,384 2,316 4,700 4,900 Others 6,476 9,127 5,927 4,934 12,840 13,040 Subtotal 76,167 73,052 83,103 75,530 80,840 81,240 United States 28,090 29,028 29,449 27,845 27,000 26,500 WORLD TOTAL 104, , , , , ,740 IMPORTS Algeria 5,221 4,250 4,750 5,600 4,500 4,500 Bangladesh 839 2,032 1,624 1,293 1,100 1,100 Bolivia Brazil 6,023 7,422 7,340 7,518 6,500 6,500 Chile China 1, , ,500 1,500 Colombia 1,099 1,108 1,135 1,170 1,200 1,200 Cuba , ,100 1,100 Ecuador Egypt 7,134 7,454 5,872 6,050 5,800 5,800 Ethiopia , Georgia India 2,344 1,294 1, Indonesia 3,664 3,117 3,744 4,068 4,000 4,000 Iran 3,620 2,585 7,363 6,245 6,500 6,000 Iraq 2,707 2,028 2,650 3,300 3,300 3,300 Israel 1,300 1,517 1,611 1,230 1,800 1,800 Japan 6,200 5,959 5,960 5,911 5,800 5,800 Jordan Korea, North Korea, South 3,917 4,689 3,811 3,127 4,300 4,100 Lebanon Libya 1,417 1,236 1,582 1,400 1,400 1,400 Malaysia 1,162 1,263 1,278 1,265 1,300 1,300 Mexico 2,166 2,485 2,632 3,066 3,200 3,200 Morocco 2,614 2,795 3,094 3,600 2,800 2,800 Nigeria 1,145 1,466 1,282 1,913 2,000 2,300 Pakistan 3,562 3,130 1, Peru 1,239 1,346 1,215 1,451 1,500 1,500 Philippines 1,959 2,328 2,982 3,050 3,300 3,300 Russia 3,120 2,490 5,083 1,604 1, South Africa Sri Lanka Taiwan 1,029 1,011 1,138 1,050 1,000 1,000 Thailand ,000 1,000 Tunisia 1,498 1,084 1,186 1,595 1,700 1,700 Turkey 1,775 1,862 1, ,000 1,000 UAE ,386 1,100 1,300 1,300 Ukraine Uzbekistan , Venezuela 1,224 1,300 1,386 1,394 1,400 1,400 Vietnam Yemen 2,366 2,066 2,002 2,117 2,000 2,000 EU 3,858 3,761 4,176 3,159 7,000 8,000 O.W. Europe Eastern Europe 2,024 2,075 1,503 3,101 1,680 1,680 United States 2,530 2,842 2,503 2,417 2,550 2,700 Subtotal 90,983 88,494 96,328 89,449 93,190 93,190 Other Countries 11,045 11,374 13,530 13,118 13,560 13,545 Unaccounted 2,229 2,212 2, ,090 1,005 WORLD TOTAL 104, , , , , ,740

9 WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS PRODUCTION 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 Algeria 670 2,200 1, ,700 1,700 Argentina 15,740 13,300 16,400 16,230 15,700 15,500 Australia 19,224 21,465 24,757 23,766 24,000 24,000 Brazil 2,380 2,188 2,403 1,660 3,000 3,000 Canada 24,280 24,076 26,900 26,804 21,300 21,300 China 123, , ,880 99,640 94,000 94,000 India 69,350 66,350 70,780 76,369 68,763 68,763 Japan Kazakstan 8,950 4,700 11,200 9,100 12,700 12,700 Mexico 3,639 3,235 3,050 3,300 3,250 3,250 Morocco 2,317 4,378 2,154 1,381 3,300 3,316 Pakistan 16,650 18,694 17,854 21,079 19,023 19,023 Russia 44,200 27,000 31,000 34,450 46,900 46,900 Saudi Arabia 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,780 Tunisia 950 1,353 1,393 1,320 1,000 1,000 Turkey 16,000 18,000 16,500 18,000 15,000 15,500 Ukraine 18,404 14,937 13,585 10,197 21,300 21,300 EU 94, ,085 96, ,884 91,616 91,773 Eastern Europe 34,269 33,928 28,195 28,385 35,860 36,184 Others 45,725 49,323 43,252 43,156 44,845 45,356 Subtotal 542, , , , , ,045 United States 67,534 69,327 62,569 60,758 53,278 53,278 WORLD TOTAL 610, , , , , ,323 CONSUMPTION Algeria 6,050 6,150 6,100 6,150 6,150 6,150 Australia 4,973 4,530 5,227 6,870 5,700 5,700 Brazil 8,549 8,960 9,532 9,499 9,500 9,500 Canada 7,336 8,077 7,621 8,215 8,200 8,200 China 113, , , , , ,500 Egypt 12,783 12,958 12,750 12,486 12,216 12,216 India 69,246 63,707 68,793 66,426 60,363 60,363 Japan 6,109 6,112 5,909 5,824 6,025 6,025 Morocco 5,561 5,528 5,678 5,733 5,800 5,800 Pakistan 20,258 21,284 20,452 20,500 19,500 19,500 Russia 39,809 34,838 35,365 35,158 37,500 38,000 Turkey 16,751 16,886 16,777 16,700 16,300 17,000 Ukraine 15,643 12,819 12,586 11,355 14,850 14,850 EU 82,793 88,210 86,821 91,518 90,274 90,083 Eastern Europe 31,601 31,898 29,569 29,129 31,205 31,005 Others 108, , , , , ,726 Subtotal 549, , , , , ,618 United States 34,212 37,579 35,407 36,339 34,101 33,367 WORLD TOTAL 584, , , , , ,985 ENDING STOCKS Australia 1,348 1,868 3,613 4,629 4,479 4,479 Canada 5,989 7,435 7,739 9,208 6,458 6,458 EU 13,950 18,072 14,432 15,706 13,038 15,421 Others 130, , , , , ,608 Subtotal 152, , , , , ,966 United States 19,663 25,744 25,848 23,846 19,073 19,944 WORLD TOTAL 171, , , , , ,910

10 REGIONAL WHEAT IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS IMPORTS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 North America 1/ 4,828 5,479 5,325 5,679 5,900 6,050 Latin America 2/ 14,163 16,122 16,350 16,434 15,760 15,745 EU 3,858 3,761 4,176 3,159 7,000 8,000 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 6,838 5,625 9,824 5,286 4,770 4,070 Eastern Europe 4/ 2,024 2,075 1,503 3,101 1,680 1,680 Middle East 5/ 14,267 12,223 18,437 16,207 17,710 17,210 North Africa 6/ 17,884 16,819 16,484 18,245 16,200 16,200 Other Africa 7/ 6,685 6,888 7,749 8,788 8,630 8,880 South Asia 8/ 7,600 7,390 5,889 2,778 3,510 3,510 Other Asia 9/ 22,897 22,467 22,845 21,866 24,550 24,350 Oceania 10/ PRODUCTION North America 1/ 95,453 96,638 92,519 90,862 77,828 77,828 Latin America 2/ 21,028 17,809 21,129 20,441 21,267 21,090 EU 94, ,085 96, ,884 91,616 91,773 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 82,250 57,561 66,060 64,929 92,867 92,867 Eastern Europe 4/ 34,269 33,928 28,195 28,385 35,860 36,184 Middle East 5/ 32,256 37,577 30,437 31,079 30,045 30,525 North Africa 6/ 9,947 14,195 11,527 9,936 12,355 12,371 Other Africa 7/ 4,826 4,727 4,734 5,875 5,358 5,846 South Asia 8/ 91,259 90,731 94, ,660 91,606 91,606 Other Asia 9/ 124, , , ,730 95,053 95,053 Oceania 10/ 19,519 21,740 25,032 24,041 24,275 24,275 CONSUMPTION North America 1/ 46,729 48,406 48,406 50,165 48,151 47,417 Latin America 2/ 23,627 24,574 25,601 25,691 25,550 25,922 EU 82,793 88,210 86,821 91,518 90,274 90,083 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ 1,405 1,539 1,644 1,447 1,465 1,465 Former USSR 73,593 65,949 67,239 65,015 72,062 72,412 Eastern Europe 4/ 31,601 31,898 29,569 29,129 31,205 31,005 Middle East 5/ 47,347 46,689 47,329 46,761 47,165 47,845 North Africa 6/ 28,213 28,292 28,770 28,394 28,291 28,291 Other Africa 7/ 11,150 11,599 12,579 14,398 13,613 14,351 South Asia 8/ 96,653 93,648 97,395 93,620 86,693 86,693 Other Asia 9/ 134, , , , , ,793 Oceania 10/ 5,704 5,177 5,967 7,562 6,395 6,395 ENDING STOCKS North America 1/ 26,352 33,879 34,187 33,704 26,281 27,152 Latin America 2/ 2,320 2,475 2,870 2,324 2,247 2,247 EU 13,950 18,072 14,432 15,706 13,038 15,421 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 17,886 6,200 5,600 6,100 20,631 19,375 Eastern Europe 4/ 7,753 7,686 4,414 4,435 6,050 6,374 Middle East 5/ 12,815 12,522 11,088 9,501 8,242 8,041 North Africa 6/ 4,550 7,041 6,112 5,599 5,643 5,659 Other Africa 7/ 1,460 1,310 1,060 1,060 1,210 1,210 South Asia 8/ 8,689 14,071 16,932 25,928 30,351 30,351 Other Asia 9/ 74,068 69,910 69,383 55,011 35,526 35,026 Oceania 10/ 1,448 1,968 3,713 4,729 4,579 4,579 NOTES: Footnotes appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years.

11 WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Global rice trade for 2002 is projected at 23.7 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons from the previous month but down 900,000 tons from revised 2001 trade estimates. Global ending stocks for 2002 are projected to decline to million tons as slightly higher world consumption exceeds declining world production (milled basis). Price quotes stabilized during March. While export price quotes for Thai 100B have hovered around $195 per ton, export price quotes for Viet 5% have rebounded, increasing $10 to $183 per ton after the large decrease last month after the harvest. Export price quotes for U.S. long grain grade #2/4 percent have dropped to $187 (FAS) per ton. Quotes for medium grain #1/4 California rice are steady at $270 (ex-spout Sacramento) per ton. Selected Exporters Trade Changes in 2002 Argentina up 50,000 tons to 300,000 with an expected increase in import demand from Andean Community countries. Australia down 100,000 tons to 600,000 based on pace to date. Burma up 200,000 tons to 800,000 on the export pace from the first quarter. India up 750,000 tons to 3.25 million on strong shipment pace during the first quarter and increasing competitiveness with Vietnam, Pakistan, and Burma. Pakistan up 150,000 tons to 1.25 million due to a heavy shipment pace to date. Vietnam down 500,000 tons to 3.5 million based on a slower than expected pace to date. Selected Importers Brazil up 100,000 tons to 600,000 due to increased stock building. Mexico up 75,000 tons to 500,000 due to a year to year drop in production and competitive U.S. rice export prices. Saudi Arabia up 125,000 tons to 1 million based on increased imports of competitively priced rice from India. South Africa up 50,000 tons to 550,000 as near-record low world market rice prices encourage greater consumption.

12 Syria up 30,000 tons to 180,000 due to rising consumption. Turkey down 100,000 tons to 250,000 as the economic recession has encouraged substitution of pasta for relatively expensive rice. Selected Exporters Trade Changes in 2001 Argentina, Egypt, and Uruguay changes based on year-end data. Selected Importers Japan, Mexico, Peru, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey changes based on year-end data. Brazil up 173,000 tons to 673,000 based on heavy imports from Uruguay during the final quarter of Colombia up 113,000 tons to 163,000 based on heavier than expected border trade from Ecuador. Saudi Arabia up 70,000 tons to 970,000 resulting from heavy imports of competitivelypriced rice from India. Syria up 16,000 tons to 166,000 based on high imports from Egypt in the last quarter.

13 WORLD RICE TRADE CALENDAR YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS Mar 8 Apr 10 EXPORTS Argentina Australia Burma China 3,734 2,708 2,951 1,859 1,500 1,500 Egypt Guyana India 4,666 2,752 1,449 1,600 2,500 3,250 Pakistan 1,994 1,838 2,026 2,400 1,100 1,250 Taiwan Thailand 6,367 6,679 6,549 7,521 7,250 7,250 Uruguay Vietnam 3,776 4,555 3,370 3,528 4,000 3,500 EU Others 1, , Subtotal 24,474 22,297 19,999 21,921 20,324 20,924 United States 3,174 2,644 2,847 2,640 2,750 2,750 WORLD TOTAL 27,648 24,941 22,846 24,561 23,074 23,674 IMPORTS Bangladesh 2,520 1, Brazil 1, Canada China Colombia Costa Rica Cote d''ivoire Cuba Ghana Haiti Indonesia 5,765 3,729 1,500 1,500 2,500 2,500 Iran 844 1,313 1,100 1,000 1,250 1,250 Iraq ,274 1,000 1,000 1,000 Jamaica & Dep Japan Korea, North Korea, South Malaysia Mexico Nigeria ,250 1,800 1,200 1,200 Peru Philippines 2,185 1, , Russia Saudi Arabia ,000 Senegal Singapore South Africa Syria Turkey UAE Uzbekistan Yemen EU O.W. Europe Eastern Europe United States Subtotal 23,081 19,129 16,771 17,804 17,537 17,682 Other Countries 3,591 4,159 4,182 4,564 4,500 4,560 Unaccounted 976 1,653 1,893 2,193 1,037 1,432 WORLD TOTAL 27,648 24,941 22,846 24,561 23,074 23,674

14 WORLD RICE PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 PRODUCTION Australia 1,324 1,362 1,101 1,761 1,250 1,250 Bangladesh 28,296 29,784 34,602 37,633 38,254 38,254 Brazil 8,462 11,582 11,424 10,385 11,000 11,000 Burma 15,345 16,000 17,000 18,571 17,000 17,000 China 200, , , , , ,000 Egypt 5,400 4,198 5,826 6,100 5,500 5,500 India 123, , , , , ,513 Indonesia 49,237 50,400 52,919 51,899 52,389 52,389 Japan 12,532 11,201 11,470 11,863 11,332 11,321 Korea, South 7,365 6,800 7,066 7,197 7,453 7,453 Pakistan 6,500 7,012 7,735 7,051 5,611 5,611 Philippines 9,982 10,268 11,957 12,515 13,265 13,265 Taiwan 2,042 1,859 1,916 1,906 1,750 1,750 Thailand 23,500 23,620 25,000 25,608 25,000 25,000 Vietnam 28,930 30,467 31,706 31,020 31,212 31,212 EU 2,701 2,694 2,696 2,456 2,562 2,560 Others 39,926 42,371 43,101 42,014 42,307 42,159 Subtotal 566, , , , , ,237 United States 8,301 8,367 9,345 8,658 9,663 9,663 WORLD TOTAL 574, , , , , ,900 CONSUMPTION Bangladesh 20,062 21,854 23,766 25,790 26,027 26,027 Brazil 7,980 7,955 7,956 7,956 7,958 7,958 Burma 9,211 9,276 9,330 9,350 9,450 9,400 China 132, , , , , ,610 Egypt 2,769 2,771 2,856 3,015 3,150 3,150 India 77,552 81,154 82,450 83,500 85,000 85,000 Indonesia 34,667 35,033 35,400 35,877 36,358 36,358 Iran 2,804 2,913 3,019 2,900 2,800 2,800 Japan 9,200 9,100 9,450 9,000 9,300 9,000 Korea, North 1,750 1,559 2,000 1,850 1,800 1,800 Korea, South 5,110 5,021 4,986 5,000 5,200 5,200 Philippines 7,800 8,000 8,400 8,750 8,900 8,900 South Africa Taiwan 1,325 1,325 1,315 1,265 1,199 1,199 Thailand 8,800 8,900 9,300 9,400 9,500 9,500 Vietnam 15,268 15,763 16,771 17,275 17,100 17,400 EU 2,012 2,042 2,116 2,075 2,127 2,127 Others 36,981 36,969 40,861 42,574 40,664 41,140 Subtotal 376, , , , , ,134 United States 3,278 3,587 3,846 3,576 3,818 3,818 WORLD TOTAL 379, , , , , ,952 ENDING STOCKS Brazil 382 1,157 1,513 1,324 1,067 1,446 Burma ,327 1, China 93,000 96,000 98,500 94,125 84,325 84,325 India 10,500 12,000 17,936 17,707 19,207 18,457 Indonesia 6,279 6,828 6,373 4,796 4,048 4,048 Korea, South ,355 1,476 1,936 1,936 Pakistan Philippines 1,566 1,965 2,002 2,797 3,169 3,169 Thailand 1,049 1,060 1,711 1,691 1,440 1,441 Vietnam , Others 11,167 11,700 11,057 9,848 7,775 8,552 Subtotal 125, , , , , ,208 United States ,355 1,355 WORLD TOTAL 126, , , , , ,563 NOTES: Production is on a rough basis; all other data are reported on a milled basis.

15 REGIONAL RICE IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS Mar 8 Apr 10 IMPORTS North America 1/ ,061 1,090 1,165 Latin America 2/ 3,357 2,263 2,103 2,231 1,995 2,085 EU Other West. Eur. 3/ Former USSR Eastern Europe 4/ Middle East 5/ 3,224 4,024 4,469 4,009 4,310 4,365 North Africa 6/ Other Africa 7/ 4,188 4,706 4,909 6,197 5,197 5,247 South Asia 8/ 2,756 1, Other Asia 9/ 10,330 7,344 5,236 5,693 6,220 6,170 Oceania 10/ / / / / / /02 * PRODUCTION North America 1/ 8,751 8,836 9,748 8,980 9,940 9,940 Latin America 2/ 17,395 22,091 22,244 20,692 21,395 21,362 EU 2,701 2,694 2,696 2,456 2,562 2,560 Other West. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 1,108 1,158 1,361 1, Eastern Europe 4/ Middle East 5/ 2,996 3,370 2,378 2,279 2,161 2,127 North Africa 6/ 5,463 4,261 5,889 6,163 5,563 5,563 Other Africa 7/ 10,540 10,845 11,151 11,761 12,197 12,197 South Asia 8/ 165, , , , , ,962 Other Asia 9/ 358, , , , , ,897 Oceania 10/ 1,324 1,362 1,101 1,761 1,250 1,250 CONSUMPTION North America 1/ 4,108 4,439 4,717 4,486 4,758 4,758 Latin America 2/ 13,892 14,252 14,674 14,864 14,985 15,070 EU 2,012 2,042 2,116 2,075 2,127 2,127 Other West. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 1,130 1,175 1,297 1,315 1,287 1,346 Eastern Europe 4/ Middle East 5/ 5,564 6,008 6,369 6,451 6,376 6,396 North Africa 6/ 2,982 2,984 3,059 3,242 3,381 3,381 Other Africa 7/ 10,412 10,973 11,556 12,540 13,230 13,230 South Asia 8/ 104, , , , , ,667 Other Asia 9/ 231, , , , , ,384 Oceania 10/ ENDING STOCKS North America 1/ ,062 1,046 1,423 1,496 Latin America 2/ 1,420 2,415 2,911 2,498 2,185 2,563 EU Other West. Eur. 3/ Former USSR Eastern Europe 4/ Middle East 5/ 2,818 3,095 2,532 1, North Africa 6/ Other Africa 7/ 1,125 1,357 1,587 1,530 1,799 1,815 South Asia 8/ 11,297 13,532 19,747 18,955 20,150 19,274 Other Asia 9/ 107, , , ,263 98,184 98,538 Oceania 10/ NOTES: Footnotes appear on last page of this circular. Production is on a rough basis; all other data are reported on a milled basis.

16 WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK World coarse grain trade for 2001/02 is projected down nearly 3.9 million tons from the previous year to 99.3 million. Global consumption is expected to continue to outpace production and carryout stocks are forecast to fall by more than 19.3 million tons. U.S. corn, China corn, and EU barley are forecast to account for nearly two-thirds of world coarse grain stocks. Global corn trade is projected down approximately 3.7 million tons from a year earlier to 72.3 million. U.S. exports are forecast to increase a mere 885,000 tons from 2000/01, as strong East European competition compensates for reduced competition from Argentina and China. With this month s forecast, the EU is now among the top four importers of barley. Selected Exporters 2001/02 Trade Changes Argentina corn up a half million tons to 9 million due to booming sales as harvest nears completion. The economic crisis is not expected to greatly impact this year s shipments, as the export tax offsets the competitive advantage from the peso devaluation. China corn raised 1 million tons to 4 million as a result of continued strong shipments of export contracts signed before WTO entry. Brazil corn lowered 1 million tons to 4.3 million based on a plunging sales pace in recent months. South Africa corn down 200,000 tons to 1.3 million as a result of lagging shipments and tight supplies. Russia barley up 300,000 tons to 1.8 million, the highest level in seven years, based on exports to date. EU barley down 500,000 tons based on the slow pace of export licenses and the absence of export subsidies necessary to compete with cheaper supplies from Russia and Ukraine. United States sorghum down 200,000 to 6.4 million based on slowing shipments. EU oats down 200,000 tons to 500,000 because of the slow pace of export licenses and low quality Scandinavian oats. Selected Importers Canada corn up 400,000 tons to 3.2 million due to the strong purchase pace to date. 17 Grain: World Markets and Trade, April 2002

17 South Korea corn up 500,000 to 7.5 million tons due to an increasing purchase pace. South Africa corn raised 100,000 to 300,000 tons due to tight supplies and high domestic prices. United States barley lowered 50,000 tons to 475,000 tons based on a slowdown in the pace of shipments from Canada. EU barley raised 300,000 tons to 1 million tons, the highest since 1988/89, as Black Sea exporters take advantage of reduced import duties in force since late EU rye up 50,000 tons to 150,000 due to rising imports into Spain, despite 5 million tons of intervention stocks. 17 Grain: World Markets and Trade, April 2002

18 WORLD COARSE GRAIN TRADE OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 EXPORTS Argentina 14,268 8,500 9,596 13,016 9,220 9,670 Australia 3,233 4,859 3,804 4,631 5,520 5,420 Canada 3,421 3,297 3,645 3,560 2,250 2,250 China 6,203 3,363 9,954 7,296 3,035 4,025 South Africa 1, ,511 1,525 1,340 Russia 1, , ,805 Turkey 1, EU 4,658 10,757 13,371 7,620 6,305 5,505 Others 6,019 6,285 6,070 9,327 13,405 12,805 Subtotal 41,600 38,762 47,853 48,150 43,310 43,320 United States 43,965 57,719 56,557 55,079 56,279 56,029 WORLD TOTAL 85,565 96, , ,229 99,589 99,349 IMPORTS Algeria 1,326 1,930 1,952 1,802 1,900 1,900 Brazil 1,563 1,081 2,185 1, Canada 1, ,133 2,885 2,885 3,300 Chile 859 1,343 1,350 1,392 1,430 1,430 China 1,591 2,615 2,335 2,610 2,800 2,775 Colombia 2,076 1,686 2,112 2,017 1,915 1,915 Costa Rica Dominican Republic , ,000 1,000 Ecuador Egypt 3,254 3,687 4,600 5,318 5,150 5,250 Iran 1,303 1,448 2,100 1,729 1,800 1,800 Israel 1,032 1,135 1,331 1,395 1,150 1,150 Japan 21,038 20,922 20,414 20,236 19,680 19,480 Jordan ,162 1,004 1,050 1,050 Korea, North Korea, South 7,598 7,806 9,280 8,889 7,301 7,705 Libya Malaysia 2,202 2,384 2,296 2,481 2,400 2,200 Mexico 7,980 9,091 9,939 11,018 10,535 10,435 Morocco 804 1,822 1,497 1,421 1,405 1,305 Peru 1,294 1, Poland Romania Russia 275 1,185 2, Saudi Arabia 5,260 7,079 7,400 6,189 6,100 5,900 South Africa Syria 482 1,002 1,325 1, Taiwan 4,757 4,798 5,231 5,135 4,960 4,960 Thailand Tunisia ,303 1,350 1,350 Turkey 851 1,027 1, Venezuela 1,161 1,463 1,300 1, Zimbabwe EU 2,403 3,117 2,699 3,050 3,660 4,010 O.W. Europe United States 2,934 2,659 2,607 2,672 2,425 2,175 Subtotal 79,487 87,320 94,761 93,080 89,647 89,941 Other Countries 4,740 4,307 7,225 3,555 7,955 5,955 Unaccounted 839 3,867 1,566 4,689 1,987 1,548 WORLD TOTAL 85,565 96, , ,229 99,589 99,349

19 WORLD COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 PRODUCTION Australia 9,524 10,069 8,686 10,846 11,440 11,240 Argentina 24,676 17,751 21,462 19,489 16,013 16,083 Brazil 31,290 33,505 32,553 42,698 37,102 37,162 Canada 25,115 26,565 26,832 24,326 22,935 22,935 China 114, , , , , ,405 Egypt 6,944 6,540 6,598 6,556 7,080 7,080 Hungary 8,445 7,597 8,293 6,107 8,871 8,871 India 30,952 31,670 30,480 31,631 30,932 30,932 Indonesia 5,700 6,500 6,200 5,500 6,000 6,000 Mexico 23,114 24,698 26,184 24,300 26,300 26,300 Philippines 3,528 4,894 4,449 4,508 4,525 4,525 Romania 14,954 9,640 11,945 5,655 10,305 10,305 South Africa 8,281 8,143 11,054 7,847 9,405 9,391 Ukraine 15,457 10,337 10,591 12,993 16,965 16,965 EU 109, , , , , ,849 Others 191, , , , , ,968 Subtotal 623, , , , , ,011 United States 260, , , , , ,862 WORLD TOTAL 883, , , , , ,873 CONSUMPTION Argentina 9,661 10,033 8,907 8,864 7,538 7,148 Brazil 34,754 34,863 34,106 35,789 36,417 36,894 Canada 23,463 23,583 23,261 24,720 24,965 25,270 China 125, , , , , ,855 Egypt 10,203 10,227 11,098 11,870 12,235 12,335 India 31,226 31,823 30,450 31,516 31,275 31,275 Indonesia 5,707 6,711 7,279 6,950 7,150 7,150 Japan 20,715 21,273 20,818 20,362 20,102 19,934 Korea, South 8,310 8,312 9,392 9,251 7,956 8,560 Malaysia 2,370 2,425 2,353 2,320 2,485 2,285 Mexico 31,686 33,498 35,553 35,960 36,835 36,635 Romania 12,555 10,311 10,960 7,405 8,355 8,005 Russia 34,234 25,637 24,927 26,875 29,250 29,300 Saudi Arabia 7,113 7,669 7,454 6,803 7,254 7,514 South Africa 8,695 7,996 8,644 8,132 8,048 8,214 Others 300, , , , , ,631 Subtotal 666, , , , , ,005 United States 206, , , , , ,203 WORLD TOTAL 873, , , , , ,208 ENDING STOCKS Canada 4,273 4,876 5,673 4,262 2,817 2,917 China 88, , ,692 81,673 64,963 63,973 Russia 7,415 1,785 1,060 2,600 6,961 7,095 EU 21,941 23,350 19,611 17,342 17,783 18,795 Others 35,410 31,176 31,645 28,438 30,494 29,904 Subtotal 157, , , , , ,684 United States 38,151 51,373 48,857 52,701 44,591 44,997 WORLD TOTAL 196, , , , , ,681

20 REGIONAL COARSE GRAIN IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 IMPORTS North America 1/ 12,355 12,698 13,679 16,575 15,845 15,910 Latin America 2/ 9,590 9,911 11,932 10,351 10,115 10,115 EU 2,403 3,117 2,699 3,050 3,660 4,010 Other West. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 493 1,606 2,951 1,104 1,580 1,585 Eastern Europe 4/ 1,441 1,241 1,711 2,631 1,370 1,420 Middle East 5/ 10,512 13,514 15,754 12,885 12,260 12,110 North Africa 6/ 6,497 8,562 9,329 10,246 10,255 10,255 Other Africa 7/ 1,713 1,351 1,218 1,549 1,860 1,760 South Asia 8/ Other Asia 9/ 38,910 39,642 42,243 41,878 39,571 39,550 Oceania 10/ PRODUCTION North America 1/ 308, , , , , ,097 Latin America 2/ 66,864 61,618 64,857 73,564 64,656 64,883 EU 109, , , , , ,849 Other West. Eur. 3/ 1,852 1,819 1,827 1,827 1,827 1,827 Former USSR 71,252 39,830 42,211 51,749 63,504 63,504 Eastern Europe 4/ 58,806 51,119 54,647 35,884 51,751 51,751 Middle East 5/ 16,871 17,497 14,032 13,957 14,732 14,732 North Africa 6/ 9,186 10,063 9,396 7,729 9,362 9,267 Other Africa 7/ 63,265 67,619 69,609 62,741 66,054 69,616 South Asia 8/ 35,134 36,021 34,808 35,831 35,137 35,137 Other Asia 9/ 132, , , , , ,071 Oceania 10/ 10,144 10,679 9,306 11,466 12,060 11,860 CONSUMPTION North America 1/ 262, , , , , ,108 Latin America 2/ 63,181 63,903 63,002 64,714 64,372 64,579 EU 97,858 98,015 95, , , ,955 Other West. Eur. 3/ 2,681 2,634 2,812 2,715 2,732 2,732 Former USSR 59,585 47,061 44,566 48,231 53,159 53,339 Eastern Europe 4/ 54,390 51,571 52,440 40,194 46,838 46,223 Middle East 5/ 28,608 29,741 29,539 27,493 27,262 27,572 North Africa 6/ 16,956 18,327 18,599 18,401 19,604 19,504 Other Africa 7/ 65,606 66,968 67,699 64,789 66,647 69,669 South Asia 8/ 35,408 36,174 34,788 35,722 35,485 35,485 Other Asia 9/ 179, , , , , ,700 Oceania 10/ 6,297 6,098 5,953 6,711 6,565 6,965 ENDING STOCKS North America 1/ 45,275 59,375 58,209 59,982 50,412 51,018 Latin America 2/ 4,667 3,593 3,033 4,312 3,742 3,786 EU 21,941 23,350 19,611 17,342 17,783 18,795 Other West. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 12,796 4,873 3,909 6,253 12,087 11,418 Eastern Europe 4/ 6,480 3,975 4,753 2,057 4,217 5,033 Middle East 5/ 4,370 4,170 2,856 2,799 2,078 2,469 North Africa 6/ 892 1,185 1, Other Africa 7/ 2,387 3,698 4,720 2,802 2,689 2,889 South Asia 8/ ,020 1, Other Asia 9/ 94, , ,884 87,733 70,235 69,279 Oceania 10/ 1, ,170 1, NOTES: Footnotes appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years.

21 WORLD CORN TRADE OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 EXPORTS Argentina 12,756 7,848 8,859 12,229 8,500 9,000 China 6,173 3,340 9,935 7,276 3,000 4,000 Hungary 1,236 1,829 1, ,500 2,500 Romania South Africa 1, ,469 1,500 1,300 Ukraine EU Others 2,176 2,032 1,750 5,572 6,710 5,810 Subtotal 25,231 16,711 23,831 27,873 22,910 23,310 United States 37,697 51,949 49,378 48,115 49,000 49,000 WORLD TOTAL 62,928 68,660 73,209 75,988 71,910 72,310 IMPORTS Algeria 943 1,171 1,300 1,500 1,600 1,600 Brazil 1, , Canada 1, ,084 2,793 2,800 3,200 Chile 851 1,268 1,260 1,362 1,400 1,400 China Colombia 1,785 1,570 2,005 1,857 1,800 1,800 Costa Rica Dominican Republic , ,000 1,000 Ecuador Egypt 3,245 3,687 4,600 5,268 5,100 5,200 Guatemala Indonesia ,229 1,284 1,300 1,300 Iran 900 1,072 1, ,000 1,000 Israel Japan 16,422 16,336 16,117 16,340 15,300 15,300 Jordan Korea, North Korea, South 7,528 7,517 8,694 8,743 7,000 7,500 Malaysia 2,202 2,384 2,296 2,481 2,400 2,200 Mexico 4,376 5,615 4,911 5,929 5,500 5,500 Morocco Peru 1,228 1, Philippines Poland Russia Saudi Arabia 1,234 1,265 1,500 1,389 1,600 1,600 South Africa Taiwan 4,474 4,575 5,023 4,902 4,700 4,700 Thailand Tunisia Turkey , Venezuela 1,161 1,463 1,300 1, Zimbabwe EU 2,055 2,716 2,296 2,800 2,750 2,750 O.W. Europe United States Subtotal 58,744 61,898 66,735 68,249 65,335 66,035 Other Countries 4,036 4,050 5,381 6,368 5,335 5,235 Unaccounted 148 2,712 1,093 1,371 1,240 1,040 WORLD TOTAL 62,928 68,660 73,209 75,988 71,910 72,310

22 WORLD CORN PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 PRODUCTION Argentina 19,360 13,500 17,200 15,400 12,000 12,800 Brazil 30,100 32,393 31,641 41,536 36,000 36,000 Canada 7,180 8,952 9,161 6,827 8,200 8,200 China 104, , , , , ,000 Egypt 6,010 5,605 5,678 5,636 6,160 6,160 Hungary 6,800 6,000 7,000 5,000 7,300 7,300 India 10,852 10,680 11,470 12,068 11,500 11,500 Indonesia 5,700 6,500 6,200 5,500 6,000 6,000 Mexico 16,934 17,788 19,240 17,700 19,000 19,000 Philippines 3,528 4,894 4,449 4,508 4,525 4,525 Romania 12,680 8,000 10,500 4,500 8,400 8,800 South Africa 7,693 7,724 10,563 7,500 9,000 9,000 Thailand 3,700 4,300 3,900 4,700 4,400 4,400 Ukraine 5,340 2,301 1,737 3,848 3,600 3,600 EU 38,522 35,295 36,414 37,470 39,385 38,785 Others 62,665 60,838 63,980 55,002 60,338 61,897 Subtotal 341, , , , , ,967 United States 233, , , , , ,485 WORLD TOTAL 575, , , , , ,452 CONSUMPTION Brazil 33,455 33,615 33,044 34,050 35,000 35,400 Canada 8,600 8,918 8,822 9,930 10,930 11,230 China 113, , , , , ,000 Egypt 9,255 9,292 10,178 10,900 11,265 11,365 Hungary 5,164 4,921 5,014 4,635 4,700 4,700 India 10,946 10,853 11,350 11,950 11,850 11,850 Indonesia 5,707 6,711 7,279 6,950 7,150 7,150 Japan 15,900 16,436 16,317 16,200 15,490 15,500 Korea, South 7,975 7,617 8,400 8,700 7,250 7,950 Malaysia 2,370 2,425 2,353 2,320 2,485 2,285 Mexico 22,002 23,037 23,657 24,000 24,600 24,600 Romania 10,493 8,621 9,500 6,250 6,800 6,800 Russia 2,369 1,711 1,944 2,000 1,500 1,500 South Africa 7,990 7,475 8,049 7,650 7,500 7,700 Others 138, , , , , ,575 Subtotal 393, , , , ,605 United States 185, , , , , ,908 WORLD TOTAL 578, , , , , ,513 ENDING STOCKS Brazil 1,100 1, ,986 1,211 1,511 China 87, , ,314 81,126 64,376 63,376 South Africa , , EU 4,468 3,658 4,003 4,175 4,707 4,467 Others 18,900 16,000 18,791 15,170 16,361 16,058 Subtotal 113, , , ,237 87,685 86,242 United States 33,220 45,391 43,628 48,240 40,539 41,174 WORLD TOTAL 146, , , , , ,416

23 REGIONAL CORN IMPORTS, PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 IMPORTS North America 1/ 5,920 6,906 6,224 8,842 8,675 9,075 Latin America 2/ 9,019 9,456 11,198 9,690 9,465 9,465 EU 2,055 2,716 2,296 2,800 2,750 2,750 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ Former USSR , Eastern Europe 4/ , Middle East 5/ 4,863 5,383 6,475 5,760 5,600 5,500 North Africa 6/ 5,392 6,239 7,491 8,739 8,650 8,650 Other Africa 7/ 1,472 1,244 1,025 1,369 1,710 1,610 South Asia 8/ Other Asia 9/ 32,635 32,190 34,887 35,081 32,080 32,380 Oceania 10/ PRODUCTION North America 1/ 257, , , , , ,685 Latin America 2/ 58,286 54,286 57,807 66,279 57,514 58,411 EU 38,522 35,295 36,414 37,470 39,385 38,785 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 10,761 5,370 5,078 7,518 6,395 6,395 Eastern Europe 4/ 32,203 25,263 30,705 16,786 28,044 28,444 Middle East 5/ 3,462 3,742 3,107 2,957 2,957 2,857 North Africa 6/ 6,388 5,908 5,880 5,692 6,462 6,362 Other Africa 7/ 32,174 33,894 37,947 31,598 33,658 35,320 South Asia 8/ 13,788 13,782 14,540 15,138 14,570 14,570 Other Asia 9/ 120, , , , , ,653 Oceania 10/ CONSUMPTION North America 1/ 215, , , , , ,738 Latin America 2/ 56,051 56,855 56,367 57,197 57,375 58,195 EU 38,862 38,948 38,027 39,738 41,716 40,901 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 8,600 6,940 6,514 7,152 6,725 6,855 Eastern Europe 4/ 28,291 25,231 27,885 19,464 23,905 23,915 Middle East 5/ 8,735 9,114 9,737 8,993 8,557 8,407 North Africa 6/ 11,822 12,146 13,115 14,464 15,167 15,067 Other Africa 7/ 33,946 33,730 35,583 33,477 34,108 35,320 South Asia 8/ 13,882 13,955 14,430 15,021 14,920 14,920 Other Asia 9/ 161, , , , , ,140 Oceania 10/ ENDING STOCKS North America 1/ 35,625 48,126 47,516 51,068 43,122 43,857 Latin America 2/ 3,652 2,572 2,103 3,446 2,894 2,937 EU 4,468 3,658 4,003 4,175 4,707 4,467 Other Wst. Eur. 3/ Former USSR 2,731 1,356 1,200 1,495 2,260 1,445 Eastern Europe 4/ 3,851 1,886 2, ,736 3,136 Middle East 5/ North Africa 6/ Other Africa 7/ 2,067 2,933 4,405 2,495 2,375 2,505 South Asia 8/ Other Asia 9/ 92, , ,409 86,139 68,692 67,682 Oceania 10/ NOTES: Footnotes appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on an international year basis. All other data are reported using marketing years.

24 WORLD BARLEY TRADE OCTOBER/SEPTEMBER YEAR THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 EXPORTS Australia 2,838 4,241 2,870 3,600 4,500 4,500 Canada 1,897 1,185 1,806 1,956 1,000 1,000 Russia 1, ,031 1,500 1,800 Turkey 1, Ukraine ,479 2,500 2,700 EU 2,990 8,894 10,458 5,900 4,500 4,000 Eastern Europe Others Subtotal 11,755 17,235 17,942 15,350 15,780 15,830 United States 1, , WORLD TOTAL 12,826 17,785 18,794 16,409 16,430 16,430 IMPORTS Algeria Brazil China 1,176 1,986 2,239 2,500 2,500 2,500 Colombia Iran , Israel Japan 1,435 1,660 1,608 1,498 1,500 1,500 Jordan Korea, South Libya Mexico Morocco Russia Saudi Arabia 4,026 5,814 5,900 4,800 4,500 4,300 South Africa Taiwan Tunisia Turkey EU ,000 O.W. Europe Eastern Europe United States Subtotal 11,778 15,710 17,062 15,101 15,290 15,340 Other Countries 565 1,282 1, Unaccounted WORLD TOTAL 12,826 17,785 18,794 16,409 16,430 16,430

25 WORLD BARLEY PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, AND STOCKS LOCAL MARKETING YEARS THOUSAND METRIC TONS 1997/ / / / / /02 Mar 8 Apr 10 PRODUCTION Algeria Argentina Australia 6,482 5,987 5,032 7,196 7,500 7,500 Canada 13,527 12,709 13,196 13,468 11,400 11,400 China 4,000 2,656 2,970 2,646 2,535 2,535 Japan Kazakstan 2,670 1,100 2,250 1,675 2,200 2,200 Mexico Morocco 1,324 1,970 1, ,150 1,155 Russia 20,800 9,800 10,600 14,100 19,500 19,500 Saudi Arabia Tunisia Turkey 7,300 7,500 6,600 7,400 6,500 6,900 Ukraine 7,407 5,870 6,425 6,872 10,200 10,200 EU 52,608 51,907 49,076 52,024 48,117 48,182 Eastern Europe 11,986 10,696 9,685 7,669 10,221 9,821 Others 16,269 15,636 12,215 12,766 14,300 14,358 Subtotal 146, , , , , ,742 United States 7,835 7,667 6,103 6,939 5,434 5,434 WORLD TOTAL 154, , , , , ,176 CONSUMPTION Algeria 571 1,475 1, Australia 3,041 2,130 2,560 3,200 3,000 3,400 Canada 11,789 11,336 11,419 11,977 11,450 11,450 China 5,575 5,209 5,250 5,000 5,000 5,000 Japan 1,600 1,860 1,819 1,700 1,730 1,750 Morocco 2,524 2,601 2,345 1,300 1,600 1,600 Russia 16,494 12,900 11,441 12,700 14,350 14,350 Saudi Arabia 5,675 6,200 5,750 5,210 5,450 5,710 Turkey 6,684 6,800 6,700 6,900 6,400 6,600 EU 43,998 43,237 41,901 46,574 44,917 45,585 Eastern Europe 11,508 11,151 9,960 8,561 9,521 8,896 Others 29,541 27,403 26,489 26,249 29,396 28,331 Subtotal 139, , , , , ,472 United States 6,879 7,207 6,752 6,432 5,813 5,813 WORLD TOTAL 145, , , , , ,285 ENDING STOCKS Australia , Canada 2,459 2,737 2,838 2,454 1,504 1,504 EU 12,621 13,680 10,147 7,963 7,024 7,810 Others 13,784 8,827 7,430 8,545 12,064 12,427 Subtotal 29,699 25,709 20,802 19,745 21,675 22,124 United States 2,596 3,084 2,424 2,314 1,826 1,826 WORLD TOTAL 32,295 28,793 23,226 22,059 23,501 23,950