Grain: World Markets and Trade

Transcription

1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FG 7-1 July 21 Grain: World Markets and Trade Exporter Wheat Ending Stocks Shrink MMT /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/ /6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 U.S. Major Exporters* *Includes Argentina, Australia, Canada,, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine Exporter stocks of wheat are now forecast to drop year-to-year by 12 MMT (16%), whereas, just a few months ago, these stocks were forecast to expand modestly. Deteriorating crop prospects in several major exporting countries, particularly Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia, along with strong global import demand, have contributed to that reversal. Tightening supplies are already causing prices in the and the EU to rise. However, the drawdown of exporter stocks is expected to partially mitigate the current production shortfall. The is the exception, with expansion currently forecast in production, exports and ending stocks. As supplies for high protein wheat shrink in other exporting countries, the is well positioned to take advantage of any further tightening of supplies and/or stronger global import demand. With planting just getting underway, the Southern Hemisphere producers, Australia and Argentina, are the wildcards in the supply picture since they typically hold relatively little stocks. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data Wheat... 4 Rice... 9 Coarse Grains Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries... 3 Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade... 4 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 9 a.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. It is available on the FAS website ( This circular is released at 1: a.m. on the same day, together with its downloadable data set. Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21 2

3 All Grain Summary Comparison Wheat Rice, Milled Corn Marketing Year 28/9 29/1 28/9 29/1 28/9 29/1 Production (Jun-May) Other Domestic Consumption (Jun-May) Other Ending Stocks (Jun-May) Other TY Imports (Jun-May) Other TY Exports (Jun-May) Other Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and exports and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere. Marketing years for U.S. grains are: Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug). 'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat only.

4 WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE U.S. Weekly FOB Export Bids 26 $/MT /3 4/1 4/17 4/24 /1 /8 /1 /22 /29 HRS SRW SWW HRW 6/ 6/12 6/19 6/26 PRICES: Domestic prices: Prices of all classes of wheat rose in June with expanding export prospects. We note the divergence between cheaper Hard Red Winter (HRW), up $11/ton to $19, and Soft Red Winter (SRW) up $19/ton to $21, due to shrinking domestic and global supplies. Hard Red Spring (HRS) jumped $13/ton to $21 and Soft White Wheat (SWW) increased marginally to $179/ton, a $4 gain. TRADE CHANGES IN Selected Exporters Australia is up 1. million tons to 1. million on shrinking exportable supplies in most other competitors. Canada is lowered sharply by 2. million tons to 1. million on lower production prospects due to reduced planted area. EU is raised 1. million tons to 23. million as the Black Sea exportable surplus falls. Kazakhstan is reduced, tons to 8. million on drought reduced yeilds. 4 Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21

5 Russia is slashed 2. million tons to 1. million due to substantially lower crop prospects and growing domestic feed demand. Turkey is down 3, tons to 3.1 million on reduced crop prospects. Ukraine is up, tons to 8. million on less competition from Russia. is boosted 2. million tons to 27. million based on less exportable supplies in most major exporting countries. Selected Importers Turkey is raised 2, tons to 3. million on tighter domestic supplies and reduced crop prospects. is cut 3, tons to 2.7 million due to tighter supplies of Canadian high protein wheat. TRADE CHANGES IN 29/1 Selected Exporters Canada is raised, tons to 18. million on a higher pace of shipments. The is down 4, tons to 23.6 million based on recent Census trade data. Selected Importers EU is reduced, tons to. million based on recent import license data and the slow pace of imports. Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21

6 World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade July/June Year, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Exports 7, 7, 4, 8,627 1,246 12,231 Argentina 1, 14, 14, 13,42 7,449 11,241 Australia 1, 17, 18, 18,83 16,61 19,278 Canada ,83 2,783 China 23, 22, 21, 2,318 12,271 13,816 8, 8, 7,,71 8,181 8,89 Kazakhstan 1,2 1,2 1, 1,46 1, Mexico 1, 17, 17, 18,393 12,2 1,84 Russia 3,1 3,4 3,4 2,342 1,763 2,2 Turkey 8, 7, 9,2 13,37 1,236 3,366 Ukraine 6,912 6,912 8,214 8,189 7,98 6,433 13,62 16,362 1,664 11,771 82,33 9,69 27, 24, 23,6 27,29 34,328 2,41 13,62 13, , ,66 116,663 11,61 TY Imports 2,3 2,3 2,3 3,8 2,3 1,4 Afghanistan,,, 6,39,94 4,874 Algeria 3,2 3,2 3, 2,882 1, 1,731 Bangladesh 6,3 6,3 6, 6,762 7,76 7,743 Brazil 9,3 9,3 9,3 9,9 7, 7,3 Egypt 6, 6,, 7,74 6,942,137,8,8,,423,224,96 Indonesia 2, 2, 3, 9,3 2 Iran 3,6 3,6 3, 3,869 3,414 2,892 Iraq 1,9 1,9 1, 2,64 1,187 1,494 Israel,2,2,3,16,71,747 Japan 3,6 3,6 4,4 3,371 3,92 3,439 Korea, South 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,688 1,7 994 Libya 3,1 3,1 3,1 3,341 3,136 3,61 Mexico 3,6 3,6 2,4 3,79 4,192 1,82 Morocco 3,9 3,9 3,9 3, 2,677 3,26 Nigeria 1,6 1,6 1, 1,38 1,42 1,367 Peru 3,3 3,3 3, 3,21 2,266 2,74 Philippines 2,3 2,3 1,8 1, Saudi Arabia 1, 1, 1, 1,472 1, South Africa 2, 2, 2, 1, 2 2 Syria 1, 1, 1,3 1,772 2,372 1,433 Tunisia 3, 3,3 3,1 3,77 2,192 1,778 Turkey 1, 1, 1, 1,18 1,66 1,292 Vietnam 2,3 2,3 2,3 2,919 2, 2,44 Yemen 38,4 38,4 38,13 39,318 3,877 4,379 12,2 12, 123,28 136,726 11,681 11,343 2,67 2,87 2,734 2,88 2,97 1,873 Unaccounted 2, 3, 3,2 3,46 3,12 3,394 13,62 13, , ,66 116,663 11,61 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.

7 World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul Production 12, 12, 9,6 1,1 18,6 16,3 Argentina 22, 22, 22, 21,42 13,69 1,822 Australia,, 4,94,88 3,82 2,234 Brazil 2, 24, 26, 28,611 2,4 2,26 Canada 114, 112, 11, 112,464 19,298 18,466 China 8,6 8,6 8,23 7,977 8,27 8,274 Egypt 141, , ,19 11,114 12, ,87 79, 8, 8,68 78,7 7,81 69,3 India 14,4 14,4 12, 1, 1, 14, Iran 14, 17, 17, 12, 16,4 13,4 Kazakhstan 22,6 22,6 24,33 2,99 23,29 21,277 Pakistan 3, 7, 61, 63, 49,4 44,9 Russia 17, 17, 18, 16,8 1, 17, Turkey 2, 2, 2,9 2,9 13,9 14, Ukraine 6,2 6,2 6,2 6, 6,2,8 Uzbekistan 49,643 49,493 3,766 43,22 46,11 49,831 6, ,29 619,37 61,247,41 46,889 6,33 6,262 6,314 68,16,821 49, ,67 668,21 679,81 683, ,231 96,16 Total Consumption 8,7 8,7 8, 8,3 8, 7,8 Algeria 7,2 7,2 7,1 6,8 6, 7,6 Australia 1,9 1,9 1,8 1, 1,3 1,3 Brazil 1,8 14,8 1, 1, 16, 12, China 18, 18, 17,6 17,2 1,8 1,3 Egypt 126, 127, 12, 127, 116,36 12, 8,1 8,1 78,21 7,924 76,423 73,477 India 16, 16, 16,2 1,9 1, 1,3 Iran 7,6 7,8 7, 7,2 7, 7, Kazakhstan 8,2 8,2 8, 7,4 7,22 7,2 Morocco 23,6 23,6 23,2 22,8 22,4 21, Pakistan 47,2 4,2 42, 38,9 37,6 36,4 Russia 17, 17, 17,4 16,9 16,8 16,6 Turkey 12,1 12,6 12,6 11,9 12,3 11, Ukraine 7,4 7,4 7,3 7, 6,8 6, Uzbekistan 132, , , , , , , ,39 62,711 68,232 88,846 84,833 32,49 33,9 31,279 34,291 28,614 3,94 667,38 667,49 61,99 642,23 617,46 61,773 Ending Stocks 3,938 4,938 4,88 3,88 3,61 3,93 Australia 4,66,66 6,36 6,6 4,46 6,86 Canada 64,88 62,88 6,13 4,68 38,963 38,4 China,64,64,174 4,961 4,294 4,144 Egypt 13,89 16,116 1,74 18,379 12,343 14,7 14,99 1,99 16,1 13,43,8 4, India 4,413 4,413 3,863 2,713 3,74 4,33 Syria 4,4 1,9 8,737 1,978 43,63 42,212 17, , ,27 147,29 116,94 118,232 29,71 26,967 26,491 17,867 8,323 12, ,47 193, ,18 16,17 124,417 13,646

8 Regional Wheat Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Imports North America 7,32 6,3 7,188 6,7 6, 6,2 Central America 1,82 1,46 1,483 1,47 1,2 1,2 South America 14,18 13,83 13,138 12,49 12,91 12,91 European Union,137 6,942 7,74, 6, 6, Other Europe 1, 1,923 1,698 1, 1,78 1,78 Former Soviet Union - 12,98 6,1 6,38, 6,22 6,22 Middle East 12,92 11,86 28,386 21, 2,87 21,7 North Africa 16,43 21,743 23,478 19,8 21, 21, Sub-Saharan Africa 11,814 1,42 13,42 1,6 14,8 14,8 East Asia 11,886 11,278 11,322 13,3 12, 12, South Asia 1,944 8,27 1,78 7,71 7,31 7,31 Southeast Asia 12,437 11,4 12,328 13,27 13,97 13,97 2,636 2,777 2,637 2,76 2,81 2,81 Total 113, ,693 14, ,3 128, 127,9 Production North America 77,722 79,468 1,627 91,114 8,112 8,13 South America 21,222 2,43 19,616 18,76 21,337 21,337 European Union 124,87 12,133 11, ,19 142, ,821 Other Europe 4,313 4,4 4,712 4,69 4, 4,2 Former Soviet Union ,9 92,493 11,47 113,781 18,12 1,62 Middle East 41,96 4,13 32,34 36,837 38,79 38,29 North Africa 18,76 13,948 14,32 2,231 18, 18, Sub-Saharan Africa,724,47 6,13 6,1,688,688 East Asia 19,669 11,9 113, ,73 113,22 11,72 South Asia 9,881 1,7 13, ,383 18,72 17,72 Oceania 11,99 13,846 21,697 22,777 22,277 22, Total 96,16 611, , ,81 668,21 661,67 Domestic Consumption North America 46,126 4,91 48,318 46,29 47,74 4,799 South America 24,326 24,446 24,69 24,29 24,68 24,68 European Union 12, 116,36 127, 12, 127, 126, Other Europe,293,4,94,64,69,69 Former Soviet Union ,72 7,2 76,42 8,7 84,6 8,86 Middle East 1,342,937 2,761 3,987,6,8 North Africa 34,1 3,67 37,63 38,97 39,8 39,8 Sub-Saharan Africa 16,797 1,92 18,227 19,69 2,43 2,43 East Asia 113, ,6 117, , ,87 117,87 South Asia 1,66 19,488 14,4 114,4 11,99 11,99 Southeast Asia 11,72 11,11 12,23 13,39 13,3 13,3 Oceania 8,3 7,388 7,72 8,1 8,16 8,16 3,264 3,4 3,297 3,46 3,49 3,49 Total 618, ,71 63,964 61,67 663, ,337 Ending Stocks North America 19,693 13,111 24,74 33,414 33,39 3,74 South America 4,178,3 3,41 3,47 3,94 3,94 European Union 14,7 12,343 18,379 1,74 16,116 13,89 Other Europe 1,394 1,64 1,87 1,774 1,34 1,4 Former Soviet Union ,18 12,433 2,246 23,772 19,47 13,17 Middle East 12,118 1,22 12,668 13,931 13,339 13,139 North Africa 9,74 9,484 9,4 1,37 9,84 9,84 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,81 1,64 2,283 3,38 2,743 2,743 East Asia 4,838 41,781 48,469 8,91 6,47 67,47 South Asia 8,37 9,782 17,6 21,431 2,71 19,71 Southeast Asia 2,7 2,66 2,461 2,366 2,46 2,46 Oceania 4,226 3,914 3,82 4,774,91 4, Total 13, ,417 16,17 193,18 193, ,47 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years.

9 RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Argentina s Exports Expand as Consumption Remains Flat Exports (TMT) /7 27/8 28/9 29/1 (Forecast) Marketing Year Exports Consumption Argentina s exports have jumped by a third in just years as a result of expanding production caused by high international prices, large import demand from Brazil, and few export restrictions. With plenty of water for irrigation, high quality land, and investment in infrastructure, the rice industry is optimistic about its future. Argentina s logistical advantage and the preferential tariff treatment under Mercosur have helped expand sales to Brazil and Chile. However, as exportable supplies continue to grow, new markets will be needed. Currently, the industry is looking to strengthen trade with the Middle East and Venezuela. In a culture where wheat products are preferred, Argentines consume over ten times more wheat than rice per capita, and there is nothing to indicate that this is likely to change. Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21 9

10 SELECTED TRADE CHANGES Egypt s 211 exports were dropped 1, tons to 3, on government efforts to lower production in order to save water. Imports were raised 11, tons to a record 1, to make up for some of the lost production. In contrast, 21 exports increased 8, tons to 6, on the pace to date. Iran s imports for 211 and 21 were each dropped 1, tons to 1. million and 1.3 million, respectively, on newly available data. Imports for 29 were bumped 7, tons to 1. million for the same reason. Libya s 211 imports were raised 6, tons to 1, following a tripling of 21 imports to 1, based on large sales from Egypt. Year-to-year purchases are expected to drop as Egypt withdraws from the market. MARKETING YEAR CHANGE The marketing year for Paraguay has been changed to better reflect the country s natural production and marketing cycle. The definition was changed beginning with 27/28: April-March* Paraguay * For Marketing Year 27/28, the starting month is April 28. Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21 1

11 World Rice Trade January/December Year, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Exports Argentina Brazil Burma ,2 6 Cambodia China 1, Egypt 1, Guyana India 6,31 3,383 2,123 2,2 2, 2, Japan Pakistan 2,696 3, 3, 3,3 3,6 3,6 Paraguay Thailand 9,7 1,11 8,7 9, 1, 1, Uruguay Vietnam 4,22 4,649,9,7,8, ,848 26,3 26,119 26,486 28, 27,81 3,3 3,219 2,992 3,32 3,4 3,47 31,81 29,749 29,111 29,811 31,4 31,28 TY Imports Bangladesh 1,7 1, Brazil Canada China Cote d'ivoire Cuba ,342 1,2 1,383 1,3 1,3 1,3 Guinea Hong Kong Iran 1, 1, 1,47 1,3 1,6 1, Iraq ,89 1,1 1,1 1,1 Japan Malaysia 799 1,39 1,7 1,2 1,2 1,2 Mexico Mozambique Nigeria 1, 1,8 2, 1,8 1,9 1,9 Philippines 1,9 2, 2, 2,6 2, 2, Saudi Arabia 961 1,166 1,49 1,1 1,3 1,3 Senegal South Africa Syria Thailand United Arab Emirates Vietnam 4 3 Yemen ,19 8,38 7,679 8,127 8,16 8,27 28,699 27,842 2,916 27,232 28,3 28, Unaccounted 2,47 1,26 2,13 1,929 2, 2, ,81 29,749 29,111 29,811 31,4 31,28 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Note about dates: is calendar year 211, 29/1 is calendar year 21, and so on.

12 World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul Milled Production Bangladesh 29, 28,8 31, 3, 32,3 32,3 Brazil 7,69 8,199 8,69 7,82 8,4 8,4 Burma 1,6 1,73 1,1 1,97 11, 11, Cambodia 3,946 4,238 4,2 4,78 4,9 4,8 China 127,2 13, ,33 137, 137, 137, Egypt 4,383 4,38 4,42 4,3 4,2 3,9 India 93,3 96,69 99,18 87, 99, 99, Indonesia 3,3 37, 38,3 38,8 4, 4, Japan 7,786 7,93 8,29 7,711 7,8 7,8 Korea, South 4,68 4,48 4,843 4,916 4,6 4,6 Nigeria 2,9 3, 3,2 3,4 3,6 3,6 Pakistan,4, 6, 6, 6, 6, Philippines 9,77 1,479 1,73 9,77 1,8 1,8 Thailand 18,2 19,8 19,8 2,3 2,6 2,6 Vietnam 22,922 24,37 24,393 24,38 24,7 24,7 31,3 31,2 33,48 3,47 3,77 3,87 414, ,46 441, ,668 41,82 41,47 6,88 6,149 6,4 6,917 7,621 7,89 42,3 433,69 448,27 44,8 49,441 49,279 Consumption and Residual Bangladesh 29,764 3,747 31, 31,3 32, 32, Brazil 7,92 8,24 8,3 8,6 8,6 8,6 Burma 1,67 1,249 9,648 1, 1,1 1,1 Cambodia 3,646 3,788 3,77 3,96 4,7 3,97 China 127,2 127,4 133, 134, 13, 13, Egypt 3,276 3,34 4, 4, 4, 3,8 India 86, 9,466 91,9 89,3 93, 93, Indonesia 3,9 36,3 37,9 38,1 39, 39, Iran 3,294 3,297 3,3 3,4 3,6 3, Japan 8,2 8,177 8,326 8,2 8,12 8,12 Korea, South 4,887 4,67 4,788 4,7 4,74 4,74 Nigeria 4,4 4,,1,3,, Philippines 12, 13,499 13,6 13,614 13, 13, Thailand 9,78 9,6 9, 9,6 9,8 9,8 Vietnam 18,77 19,4 19, 19,1 19, 19, 47,67 48,49,2 1,9 2,864 2,8 417, ,73 433, ,6 448, ,6 3,99 3,919 3,97 4,1 4,38 4, 421, , , ,7 42,792 42,16 Ending Stocks China 3,91 38,1 38,899 4,849 42,279 42,279 India 11,43 13, 19, 1, 18, 18, Indonesia 4,67,67 7,7 7,987 8,737 8,737 Japan 2,46 2,6 2,71 2,726 2,91 2,91 Philippines 4,868 4,418 4,121 2,464 2,464 2,64 Thailand 2,1 2,77 4,787 6,287 7,437 7,437 Vietnam 1,392 2,18 1,961 1,941 1,823 1,891 1,629 11,369 11,361 1,977 11,19 11,148 73,77 79,69 89,91 88,231 94,8 94,7 1, ,28 1,418 2,1 74,991 8,68 9,861 89,439 96,268 96,612 Note: All data are reported on a milled basis.

13 Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Imports North America 1,643 1,94 1,614 1,8 1,64 1,64 Caribbean 96 1, South America 1,86 1,1 1,113 1,46 1,2 1,2 Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East 4,778,96,337,29,91,81 North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 7,844 7,9 7,94 8,1 8,42 8,38 East Asia 2,318 1,612 1,874 1,88 1,94 1,94 South Asia 1,946 2, Southeast Asia,749 4,64 4,28,6 4,99 4,99 2,2 2,428 2,19 2,27 2,2 2,2 Total 29,394 28,493 26,98 27,882 28, 28,71 Production North America 6,266 6,327 6,6 7,92 7,781 7,969 Caribbean South America 14,287 1,438 16,27 1,276 16,17 16,67 European Union 1,676 1,77 1,62 1,984 2,1 2,1 Former Soviet Union , 1, 91 1,9 1,122 1,172 Middle East 2,282 2,41 2,8 2,493 2, 2, North Africa 4,413 4,46 4,423 4,33 4,24 3,94 Sub-Saharan Africa 9,388 9,67 11,27 11,619 11,879 11,879 East Asia 142,661 14,44 1,87 12,648 12,888 12,888 South Asia 133, ,7 142,232 13,31 143,69 143,69 Southeast Asia 13,778 19, ,28 112,26 11,61 11, Total 42,3 433,69 448,27 44,8 49,441 49,279 Domestic Consumption North America,88,7,47,16,18,21 Central America 1,118 1,116 1,13 1,119 1,137 1,137 Caribbean 1,829 1,931 1,791 1,938 1,93 1,93 South America 13,478 14,118 14,671 14,89 1,64 1,18 European Union 2,911 3,18 2,92 3,1 3,1 3,1 Former Soviet Union ,349 1,319 1,244 1,266 1,287 1,287 Middle East 7,38 7,498 7,797 7,783 8,1 8,22 North Africa 3,46 3,636 4,133 4,29 4,19 4,1 Sub-Saharan Africa 17,17 17,493 18,18 19,79 2,378 2,288 East Asia 144, ,31 149,71 1,892 11,9 11,9 South Asia 124, , , ,713 13,14 13,14 Southeast Asia 94,993 97,134 97,19 99,121 11,6 11, Total 418,96 426,16 43, ,37 4,7 449,29 Ending Stocks North America 1,377 1,111 1,126 1,379 1,74 2,261 Central America Caribbean South America 2,18 2,8 2,423 2,4 1,823 1,771 European Union 1,138 1,126 1,2 1,114 1,184 1,184 Middle East 1,719 2,44 1,743 1,69 1,637 1,77 North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 1,21 1, East Asia 39,317 41,37 42,832 4,368 47,2 47,2 South Asia 12,636 14,36 21,193 16,683 19,737 19,777 Southeast Asia 14,426 1,78 18,67 19,47 21,419 21,87 Oceania Total 74,991 8,68 9,861 89,439 96,268 96,612 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years.

14 COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Barley: EU Exports Rebound on Shrinking Global Supplies 29/1 EU Russia & Ukraine Other What a difference a year makes at least for barley in the EU. Just a year ago, the EU was losing market share from low-cost regional suppliers (Russia and Ukraine), and from Canada with its single-desk marketing system, while EU barley moved into intervention. This year, EU barley is expected to be more competitive, as intervention is no longer available as a marketing option. Weather-related events can dramatically alter the global trade picture for virtually any commodity, and barley is no exception, particularly when there are only a few surplus producers. The dichotomy of flooding in Canada and drought in Russia has resulted in sharply reduced production prospects, while pressure to meet domestic needs, particularly for feed, are also expected to limit supplies available for export. The EU is holding nearly 6 million tons of intervention stocks, which could either be released later in the season to keep internal prices reasonable, or could be made available to meet expanding exports. Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21 14

15 MONTHLY HIGHLIGHT: Oats supplies in the and Canada are expected to fall dramatically on rain-reduced plantings in Canada. U.S. oats imports are expected to fall 1, tons to 1.6 million, as lower Canadian exports are only partially offset by larger EU exports. Canadian, U.S. Oats Stocks Plummet MMT /6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 U.S. and Canada Ending Stocks PRICES: Domestic: From June through early July, U.S. corn export prices whipsawed $1/ton, ending up sharply at $16. Markets reacted to favorable early-season crop conditions and additional sales to China. Then, on June 3, lower-thanexpected acreage and June 1 stocks reported by USDA caused an immediate surge in prices. Although all three corn exporters prices are moving in tandem, U.S. prices remain at a consistent discount to Argentine and Brazilian prices on a FOB-to-FOB basis. $/MT Jan 1-Jan 29-Jan Corn Weekly Export Bids 12-Feb 26-Feb 12-Mar 26-Mar 9-Apr 23-Apr 7-May 21-May 4-Jun 18-Jun 2-Jul U.S. Gulf Brazil Paranagua Argentina Up River TRADE CHANGES IN Selected Exporters U.S. corn is cut 1. million tons to 49. million because of reduced crop prospects and lower carryin stocks following the release of USDA s Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21 1

16 Brazilian and Ukrainian corn are each raised, tons to 8. million and 6. million, respectively, due to ample supplies and reduced competition from the United States. Australian barley is raised 3, tons to 3.6 million on reduced competitor supplies, particularly in Canada and Russia. Canadian barley is lowered 4, tons to 1. million, the lowest in 8 years, as domestic feed needs and reduced crop prospects will likely limit exports. EU barley jumps 1.4 million tons to 3.6 million as reduced exportable supplies in competitor countries, combined with large carry-over stocks, provide greater export opportunities. Russian barley is lowered 8, tons to 1. million, the smallest in 1 years, on sharply reduced crop prospects. Selected Importers Mexican corn is down, tons to 9.1 million due to ample domestic stocks. Chinese barley is raised 4, tons to 1.9 million on expectations of greater domestic malt use (similarly, 29/1 imports are raised 3, tons to 1.9 million). TRADE CHANGES IN 29/1 Selected Exporters Canadian barley is lowered 2, tons to 1.2 million on slower exports and expectations of tight new-crop supplies. EU barley is raised 6, tons to 2.1 million on the unusually strong pace of export licenses during the month of June. Selected Importers South Korean corn imports are boosted 4, tons to 8.2 million based on brisk shipments from the. Syrian barley is lowered 2, tons to, on expectations of a rebound in production in 21. Grain: World Markets and Trade, July 21 16

17 World Coarse Grain Trade October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Exports 1,7 1,7 14,8 1,241 17,786 17,191 Argentina 4,46 4,16 4,33 4,873 3,89 1,99 Australia 8,3 7,3 7,3 7,187 8,32 8,188 Brazil 2,87 3,47 3,2 3,849 6,379 3,787 Canada,2 3,7 3,68 4,338 4,679,463 2,2 2,2 1,17 2,642, India 1,21 2,1 2,1 4,94 1,419 1,836 Russia 2,1 2,1 1,1 1, Serbia 2,4 2,4 2,4 2,19 1, South Africa 11,21 1,71 11,21 11,38,99 3,942 Ukraine,47,7 6,28 6,,63 11,19 6,97 9,62 8,11 9,97 6,,7 3,3 4,8 3,39 1,718 68,289 9,17 114,32 114,47 111,1 11,81 128, ,714 TY Imports 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,67 2,433 2,88 Algeria 1,4 1,3 1,1 1,497 1,28 1,472 Brazil 2,6 2,6 2,6 1,9 3,187 2,28 Canada 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,27 1,969 1,766 Chile 2,7 1,64 2,98 1,61 1,17 1,16 China 3,86 3,86 3,76 3,483 3,63 3,714 Colombia Cuba 1, 1, 1, 973 1,74 1,212 Dominican Republic,43,43,3,93 4,182 4,84 Egypt 2,71 2,71 2,69 2,996 19,892 8,738 3, 3, 4,, 3,9 3,6 Iran 1,46 1,46 1,48 1,29 1,776 1,684 Israel 19,37 19,37 19,8 19,611 19,21 19,668 Japan ,186 Jordan 8,63 8,63 8,23 7,248 9,38 8,797 Korea, South 2,8 2,8 2, 2,447 3,181 2,363 Malaysia 11,7 12,2 1,7 1,46 11,11 11,4 Mexico 2, 2, 2,1 1,838 2,18 2,1 Morocco 1,74 1,74 1,64 1,398 1,92 1,646 Peru 9,2 9,2 9,3 9,286 9,968 7,78 Saudi Arabia 2, 2, 2, 2,834 2,61 2,79 Syria 4,8 4,8 4,7 4,68 4,684 4,43 Taiwan 1,1 1, ,183 1,19 Tunisia 1,4 1,4 1,3 1,34 1,13 34 Venezuela 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,2 6 Vietnam 12,11 12,1 12,71 13,644 13,923 13,41 18,376 18,246 16,71 1,69 126,798 11,734 3,674 3,74 3,64 2,399-1,69 1,37 Unaccounted 2,27 2,47 2,37 2,87 3,61 2,6 114,32 114,47 111,1 11,81 128, ,714 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.

18 World Coarse Grains Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul Production 27,79 27,79 28,276 19,134 27,118 27,94 Argentina 1,967 1,967 11,67 12,272 12,89 6,83 Australia 3,729 3,729,6 3,624 61,344 3,184 Brazil 22,1 24,1 22,373 27,184 27,841 23,14 Canada 173, 173, 161,3 172,66 19,1 19,98 China 8,92 8,92 8,46 9,34 8,32 7,928 Ethiopia 146,33 147,72 11,77 161,42 136, ,421 4,6 4,6 34,3 39,61 4,63 33,81 India 8,4 8,4 8,3 8, 8, 7,8 Indonesia 31,929 31,929 28,448 32,22 3,77 29,181 Mexico 28,1 28,1 27,99 26,67 24, 26, Nigeria 26,8 3,1 31,81 4, 29,32 3,2 Russia 13,28 13,28 14,26 13,84 13,69 7,76 South Africa 1,49 1,49 1,9 1,41 9,48 1,896 Turkey 24,9 24,9 24,12 26,22 14,8 19,17 Ukraine 14,3 141,14 13,896 13,68 126,38 127,93 766,81 774,119 74, ,664 73,3 77,26 3,74 34, ,217 32, , ,998 1,117, 1,128,36 1,14,11 1,19,31 1,79, ,28 Domestic Consumption 11,184 11,184 1,973 8,748 9,67 9,694 Argentina 1,34 1,24 49,4 48,29 4,279 43,34 Brazil 22,9 22,9 22,673 22,867 24,21 24, Canada 167,8 167,37 164, 16,32 17,1 13,46 China 13,68 13,68 12,98 12,162 11,477 11,8 Egypt 1,2 11, 148,3 11,8 14,1 147,877 37,6 37,6 33,3 36, 3, 32,2 India 19,7 19,7 19,77 19,96 19,46 19,823 Japan 42,39 42,39 41, 42,6 4,23 39,92 Mexico 28,1 28,1 27,7 26, 24, 2,7 Nigeria 26,9 29,4 3,99 32,8 28,87 28,4 Russia 9,2 9,2 9,42 9,3 9,4 8,66 Saudi Arabia 11,638 11,638 11,613 1,78 1,18 9,13 South Africa 1, 1,4 1,3 1,6 1,6 11,61 Turkey 14, 14, 13,6 13,69 11,93 13,1 Ukraine 22,3 22,9 194, ,428 19,347 18, , ,116 86,37 83,77 782,33 769,1 33,18 33,18 32,688 27, ,33 242,798 1,126,147 1,129,296 1,19,63 1,79,23 1,6,886 1,12,313 Ending Stocks 3,488 3,488 3,768 1,24 3,272 2,29 Argentina 8,89 8,89 11,289 12,412 12,86 3,772 Brazil 3,99 4,99,9 6,3 4,1 3,1 Canada 6,71 6,726 3,71 4,191 4,426 38,32 China 16,723 19,189 23,16 2,248 12,768 1,138 3,621 4,221 2,487,239 4,74 3,26 Mexico 3,723 3,692 4,743 4,21 3,21 1,776 South Africa 41,233 42,78 42,2 42,778 37,339 36,24 141, ,63 146, , ,671 14,28 38,66 44,272 41,93 47,6 4,9 36,174 18, ,92 188, , ,73 14,72

19 Regional Coarse Grains Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Imports North America 1,93 17,88 1,172 1,19 17,29 16,9 Central America 2,96 2,681 2,491 2,7 2,77 2,77 Caribbean 2,227 2,239 2,11 2,1 2,2 2,2 South America 1,181 1,672 9,991 9,93 1,43 1,3 European Union 8,738 19,892 2,996 2,69 2,71 2,71 Former Soviet Union , Middle East 18,73 21,884 21,37 2, 19,62 19,72 North Africa 11,671 1,763 1,97 1,8 11,61 11,61 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,2 2,84 3,69 3,13 2,1 2,1 East Asia 34,13 34,662 33,349 3,72 34,68 3,11 Southeast Asia 4,394 4,746,4 4,74 6,3 6,3 1, 1, Total 113,339 13,48 18,416 18,446 11,721 11,61 Production North America 332,324 48,279 38,33 4,38 41,28 44,774 South America 92,197 1,741 84,61 9,48 93,443 93,443 European Union 137, , ,42 11,77 147,72 146,33 Other Europe 11,68 9,37 12,37 11,8 11,94 11,9 Former Soviet Union ,673 4,3 78,464 67,86 66,91 62,81 Middle East 19,86 17,68 1,9 17,7 19,677 19,677 North Africa 11,211 9,894 1,219 1,423 13,632 13,632 Sub-Saharan Africa 87,26 9,87 9,73 96,62 98,1 98,1 East Asia 161, ,29 174, ,22 17,17 17,17 South Asia 4,139 47,3 4,748 4,78 46,883 46,883 Southeast Asia 24,271 26,882 27,78 27,212 28,44 28,44 Oceania 7,23 13,42 12,919 12,214 11,614 11,614 3,979 4,4 4,291 4,12 4,32 4,32 Total 987,28 1,79,914 1,19,31 1,14,11 1,128,36 1,117, Domestic Consumption North America 37, ,789 34,67 367,61 368,47 368,313 South America 71,46 74,696 76,382 79,632 82,268 82,368 European Union 147,877 14,1 11,8 148,3 11, 1,2 Other Europe 11,32 1,423 1,29 1,16 1,61 1,76 Former Soviet Union ,1,49 7,836,22 4,613 2,38 Middle East 37,684 38,289 37,92 36,823 38,223 38,323 North Africa 22,13 21,147 21,192 23,8 2,42 2,42 Sub-Saharan Africa 88,327 88,136 9,78 9,746 98,769 98,769 East Asia 188,9 191,864 19,67 199,269 22,694 23,124 South Asia 38,847 42,18 42,672 39,838 43,963 43,963 Southeast Asia 27,142 29,476 3,281 3,74 32,79 32,79 Oceania 6,88 7,666 7,897 7,72 7,87 7,87 9,1 9,314 8,93 8,963 9,213 9,213 Total 1,7,92 1,6,612 1,76,71 1,13,982 1,12,86 1,122,964 Ending Stocks North America 43,21 3,89 8,64 49,3 3,483 46,177 South America 9,6 19,628 16,61 17,9 1,28 14,78 European Union 1,138 12,768 2,248 23,16 19,189 16,723 Other Europe 1,23 1,34 2,12 2,28 2,22 2,22 Former Soviet Union - 12,177 4,437 8,614 6,784 6,677,12 Middle East 8,41 7,686 7,66 7,37 7,434 7,734 North Africa 3,19 2,462 2,762,3,117,117 Sub-Saharan Africa,96 7,8 9,42 9,922 8,63 8,634 East Asia 41,832 44,997 7,937 7,393 64,264 64,289 South Asia 1,69 1,749 2,76 1,691 2,476 2,476 Southeast Asia 2,778 3,47 4,44 3,417 3,217 3,217 Oceania 1,31 2,737 3,342 3,414 3,6 2, , Total 14,72 163,73 193, , ,92 18,184 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years.

20 World Corn Trade October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Exports Argentina 1,693 1,676 8,48 13, 13, 13, Brazil 8,71 7,883 7,178 7, 7, 8, Burma ,743 1,2 1,2 1,2 India 82,77 2,1 1, 2, 2, Paraguay 1,981 1,461 1,862 1, 1, 1, Serbia ,467 1, 2, 2, South Africa 431 1,124 2,111 2, 2, 2, Thailand , Ukraine 1,27 2,74,497,2, 6, 7,39 2,817 4,142 3,1 2,8 2,8 37,26 37,62 36,19 36,9 39,1 4,1 4,214 6,663 47,97 49, 1, 49, 91,474 98,26 84,12 8,9 9,1 89,6 TY Imports Algeria 2,463 2,166 1,93 2,2 2,3 2,3 Brazil 1, ,92 1, 1, Canada 2,226 3,117 1,844 2, 2, 2, Chile 1,8 1, Colombia 3,386 3,267 3,68 3,3 3,4 3,4 Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic 1,212 1, , 1, 1, Egypt 4,826 4,11,31,,4,4 7,6 14,16 2,743 2, 2, 2, Iran 3,3 2,9 3,6 3,2 3,2 3,2 Israel 1,311 1, , 1, 1, Japan 16,713 16,614 16,33 16,3 16,3 16,3 Korea, South 8,731 9,311 7,188 8,2 8,6 8,6 Malaysia 2,363 3,181 2,447 2, 2,8 2,8 Mexico 8,944 9,6 7,764 8, 9,6 9,1 Morocco 1,683 1,88 1,66 1, 1,8 1,8 Peru 1,28 1,469 1,37 1, 1,6 1,6 Saudi Arabia 1,77 1,961 1,482 1,6 1, 1, Syria 1,729 1,661 1,784 2, 2, 2, Taiwan 4,283 4,27 4,32 4,6 4, 4, Thailand Tunisia Venezuela 34 1,13 1,336 1,3 1,4 1,4 Vietnam 6 1,2 1,3 1,3 1,3 1,876 1,28 1,213 9,8 9,2 9,12 9,174 99,9 82,121 83,1 86,87 86,47 Unaccounted 981-1,831 1,644 2, 3,3 2, ,474 98,26 84,12 8,9 9,1 89,6 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. The large, negative Unaccounted in 27/8 arises largely from timing differences between declared exports and Japan's and Korea's declared imports.

21 World Corn Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul Production 21, 21, 22, 1, 22,17 22, Argentina 1, 1, 3, 1, 8,6 1, Brazil 1, 1, 9,6 1,92 11,649 8,99 Canada 166, 166, 1, 16,9 12,3 11,6 China 7, 7, 6,822 6,64 6,174 6,149 Egypt 6,994 6,717,773 62,321 47, 3,829 2, 2, 17,3 19,73 18,96 1,1 India 8,4 8,4 8,3 8, 8, 7,8 Indonesia 24, 24, 21,3 24,226 23,6 22,3 Mexico 8, 8, 8,79 7,97 6, 7,8 Nigeria 6,8 6,8 6,23 6,846 7,277 6,231 Philippines 6, 6, 6,4 6,13 4,4 6,41 Serbia 12, 12, 14, 12,67 13,164 7,3 South Africa 13, 13, 1, 11,4 7,4 6,4 Ukraine,,,28 4,432 4,6 4,21 Vietnam 78,44 78,44 7,278 77,23 7,88 68,183 49, , ,7 49, ,438 44, , , ,11 37, , ,3 832,376 83,77 89,18 797, ,61 713,41 Total Consumption 7, 7, 7,1 6,4 7, 6, Argentina 48,3 48,3 46, 4, 42, 41, Brazil 12, 12,2 11,8 11,663 13,769 11,442 Canada 19, 19, 16, 12, 149, 14, China 12,6 12,6 11,9 11,1 1,4 1, Egypt 8, 8, 8, 62, 64, 62,3 17, 17, 16,4 17, 14,2 13,9 India 9,3 9,3 9, 8,9 8, 8,1 Indonesia 16,3 16,3 16,3 16, 16,6 16, Japan 8, 8, 8,3 7,887 8,638 8,833 Korea, South 31,8 31,8 3,8 32,4 32, 3, Mexico 8,8 8,8 8,6 7,9 6, 7,6 Nigeria 7,2 7,2 6, 7,3 7,1 6, Philippines 11, 11, 11, 1, 9,6 8,6 South Africa 6,6 6,6,,8,7,2 Ukraine 123,3 123,93 119, , ,93 11,3 41,63 42,33 28,149 22,687 1,73 497,32 289, , ,68 29,3 261,632 23,674 83,89 831, , ,74 772, ,976 Ending Stocks 2,442 2,442 2, ,178 1,836 Argentina 7,784 8,284 11,84 12,84 12,79 3,92 Brazil 1,667 1,817 1,467 1,87 1,47 1,337 Canada 9,919 9,919 3,19 3,169 39,394 36,62 China 4, 3,943 4,26,683 4,362 7,382 2,99 3,9 1,89 3,9 4,131 3,84 Mexico 3,63 3,32 4,38 4,13 3,9 1,661 South Africa 23,39 23,89 23, 24,47 22,871 21,461 16,193 17,3 12,4 14,94 9,62 76,9 34,88 39,966 37,2 42,4 41,2 33, ,78 147, ,92 147,48 131,317 11,69

22 Regional Corn Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Imports North America 11,489 13,174 9,94 1,2 12,3 11,8 Central America 2,96 2,678 2,491 2,7 2,77 2,77 South America 9,141 9,49 8,48 8,26 8,86 8,86 European Union 7,6 14,16 2,743 2, 2, 2, Former Soviet Union Middle East 1,24 1,116 9,462 9,4 9, 9,6 North Africa 1,136 9,94 9,74 1, 1,72 1,72 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,921 1,969 2,94 2,23 1,48 1,48 East Asia 29,84 3,746 28,481 3,28 29,88 29,88 Southeast Asia 4,38 4,71,391 4,73 6,3 6,3 Caribbean 2,227 2,239 2,11 2,1 2,2 2, Total 9,493 1,96 82,48 83,4 87,12 86,72 Production North America 298, , ,96 363, ,114 37,938 South America 83,33 9,887 7,69 8,3 82,3 82,3 European Union 3,829 47, 62,321,773 6,717 6,994 Other Europe 9,3 7,239 9,96 9,68 9,83 9,83 Former Soviet Union ,871 13,893 21,672 17,84 21,86 21,36 Middle East,663,22 6,248 6,229 6,34 6,34 North Africa 6,31 6,376 6,847 7,24 7,22 7,22 Sub-Saharan Africa 41,27 46,771 48,98 3,34 2,32 2,32 East Asia 13,43 14,9 167,66 16,4 167,79 167,79 South Asia 2,234 24,9 24,78 22,42 2,7 2,7 Central America 2,89 3,28 3,222 3,41 3,188 3,188 Southeast Asia 24, 26,69 27,478 26,977 28,2 28,2 1, 1,2 1,183 1,179 1,179 1,179 Total 713,41 793,61 797,831 89,18 83,77 832,376 Domestic Consumption North America 272,816 37,41 33, ,28 333, ,127 South America 63,147 66,412 67,64 69,3 72,2 72,2 European Union 62,3 64, 62, 8, 8, 8, Other Europe 8,99 7,766 7,71 8,9 8,26 8,26 Former Soviet Union ,144 12,97 14,7 12,86 1,37 14,87 Middle East 14,64 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,9 16, North Africa 16, 1,7 16,12 17, 18,12 18,12 Sub-Saharan Africa 42, 43,4 48,478 1,277 1,83 1,83 East Asia 176,719 18,3 183,8 186,78 19, 19, South Asia 19,29 19,31 22, 21,7 22,62 22,62 Southeast Asia 26,922 29,249 3,43 3,2 32,7 32,7 Central America,8,9,8,8,9,9 3,19 3,46 3,23 3,22 3,33 3,33 Total 724,32 772, , 812,77 829,8 828,47 Ending Stocks North America 37,3 46,843 47,92 4,828 4,342 39,11 South America 8,47 18, 14,78 16,328 13,698 13,198 European Union 7,382 4,362,683 4,26 3,943 4, Other Europe 1,16 1,26 1,784 1,999 1,924 1,924 Former Soviet Union ,727 1,136 1,82 1,212 2,24 1,74 Middle East 3,618 3,168 3,13 2,64 2,298 2,298 North Africa 1,99 1,62 2,221 2,14 1,947 1,947 Sub-Saharan Africa 4,39,918 7,286 8,744 7,297 7,328 East Asia 39,74 43,373 6,29 6,4 62,879 62,879 South Asia 1,2 1,276 1,437 1,127 1,612 1,612 Southeast Asia 2,776 3,47 4,439 3,416 3,216 3,216 Central America Total 11,69 131, ,48 139,92 147, ,78 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years.

23 World Barley Trade October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Exports Algeria Argentina Australia 1,927 3,377 3,278 3,4 3,3 3,6 Canada 1,337 2,947 1,618 1,2 1,4 1, China Croatia Egypt ,366 3,888 2,374 2,1 2,2 3,6 India Kazakhstan Moldova Russia 1,691 1,277 3,98 2,1 1,8 1, Serbia Turkey Ukraine 2,911 3,814,871 6,,2, ,113 17,693 18,4 16,73 1,87 16, ,641 18,94 18,198 16,88 16,7 16,47 TY Imports Brazil China 1,127 1,91 1,1 1,9 1, 1,9 Colombia Iran 3 1, 1,4 8 Israel Japan 1,39 1,361 1,346 1,3 1,3 1,3 Jordan Kuwait Libya Morocco Saudi Arabia 6, 8, 7,8 7, 7, 7, Syria 3 9 1, Tunisia United Arab Emirates ,368 1,94 1,371 1,19 1,9 1,9 14,16 17,16 17,369 16,17 1,24 1,74 Unaccounted ,641 18,94 18,198 16,88 16,7 16,47 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.

24 World Barley Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul Production 2, 2, 2,4 6 9 Algeria 1,87 1,87 1,33 2,11 1,6 1,33 Argentina 7,6 7,6 8,3 7,997 7,16 4,27 Australia 2, 2, 1,6 2,2 1, 1,3 Belarus 8,4 9, 9,2 11,781 1,984 9,73 Canada 3,1 3,1 2, 2,823 2,78 3,11 China 6,367 8,727 61,2 6,42 7,4 6,22 1,6 1,6 1,69 1,2 1,33 1,22 India 3,1 3,1 2,6 2, 3, 2,96 Iran 1,8 2,6 2,6 1,8 2, 1,9 Kazakhstan 2,8 2,8 3,8 1, ,3 Morocco 13, 1, 17,9 23,1 1,6 18,1 Russia 1,67 1, Syria 6, 6, 6,, 6, 7, Turkey 1, 1, 11,8 12,6 6, 11,3 Ukraine 9,79 9,744 9,8 9,13 9,6 9,67 131,71 138, ,83 149,98 128, ,463 3,967 4,137 4,949,23 4,7 3,923 13,38 142,43 148,72 1, , ,386 Total Consumption 4, 4, 4, 4, 3,1 4, Australia 1,9 1,9 1, 2,2 1,7 1,6 Belarus 8,2 8,2 8,7 9,6 7,916 1,19 Canada 4,8 4,4 4,4 4,2 3,9 4,2 China 9, 9, 6, 7, 4,2, 1, 1, 1,4 1, 1, 1,22 India 3, 3, 3,3 3,9 3,6 3,4 Iran 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,6 1,6 Japan 1,82 1,9 2, 1,6 1, 1,3 Kazakhstan 3,2 3,2 2,8 1, 1,8 2, Morocco 13,3 1, 17, 17,1 1, 16,4 Russia 7,2 7,2 7,2 7,42 7,43 6,81 Saudi Arabia 1,6 1,6 1,4 1,8 1, 1,1 Syria,,,, 6,1 7,3 Turkey,8,8,9,9, 6,3 Ukraine 1,33 1,238 14,784 14,42 14,79 14, , ,76 139, ,24 129,6 138,631 4,682 4,681 4,622,127 4,324 4,96 144,6 146,27 143, , , ,227 Ending Stocks 1,784 1,784 1, Algeria 2,27 2,7 2,82 2,42 1, Australia 1,63 2,163 2,363 2,843 1,68 1,491 Canada 8,281 12,1 14,364 1,89,7,824 1,164 1,164 1, Morocco 2,3 2,23 2,78 2,23 2,428 2,48 Saudi Arabia Syria 6,498 7,23 8,227 9,891 6,44 7,241 2,61 3, 33,423 28,987 18,613 19,69 1,91 2,128 2,7 1,932 1,48 1, 26,962 32,683 3,93 3,919 2,98 21,19

25 Regional Barley Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Imports North America South America European Union Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East 8,278 11,8 11,791 1,2 1, 1, North Africa 1,21 1, Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia 2,9 2, 3, 3,3 2,9 3,3 South Asia Oceania Total 14,46 18,228 17,941 16,7 1,64 16,4 Production North America 14,36 16,212 17,822 14,969 14,418 13,148 South America 2,32 2,726 3,14 2,414 3,1 3,1 European Union 6,22 7,4 6,42 61,2 8,727 6,367 Other Europe 1,48 1,412 1,613 1,44 1,43 1,44 Former Soviet Union ,91 27,1 41,227 3,48 32,41 28,741 Middle East 12,479 1,926 8,443 9,98 12, 12, North Africa 3,83 2,493 2,347 7,314,34,34 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,738 1,733 1,826 1,99 1,8 1,8 East Asia 3,49 3,24 3,3 2,939 3,4 3,4 South Asia 1,742 1,93 1,67 2,297 2,132 2,132 Oceania 4,67 7,6 8,397 8, 8, 8, Total 136, ,887 1, ,72 142,43 13,38 Domestic Consumption North America 1,661 13,4 1,42 14,122 13,681 13,682 South America 2,347 2,627 2,773 2,93 2,73 2,83 European Union, 4,2 7, 6, 9, 9, Other Europe 1,738 1,64 1,7 1,61 1,2 1,3 Former Soviet Union ,84 24,812 28,389 28,162 26,61 24,286 Middle East 21,439 2,841 2,89 19,64 2,89 2,89 North Africa 4,92 4,32 3,987,38 6,2 6,2 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,79 1,789 1,9 2,4 1,9 1,9 East Asia 6,211,84 6,19 6,3 6,33 6,73 South Asia 1,742 1,6 1,437 2,87 2,62 2,62 Oceania 4,4 3, 4,4 4,9 4,9 4,9 Total 142, ,26 143, ,731 14, ,8 Ending Stocks North America 3,28 3,281,112,7 4,9 3,682 South America European Union,824,7 1,89 14,364 12,1 8,281 Other Europe Former Soviet Union ,684 2,48,416 4,1 3,136 2,111 Middle East 4,88 4,41 4,46 4,66,61,361 North Africa 1, ,16 3,12 3,12 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia ,3 1,3 South Asia Oceania 1,46 1,698 2,461 2,861 2,611 2,311 Total 21,19 2,98 3,919 3,93 32,683 26,962 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years.

26 World Sorghum Trade October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Exports Argentina 99 1, ,2 1,3 1,3 Australia ,36 7 Brazil China India Nigeria South Africa ,44 2,17 2,496 2,19 2,26 2,26 4,38 6,664 3,69 4,2 3,6 3,6,784 8,839 6,1 6,39,86,86 TY Imports Chile Colombia Ethiopia ,474, Israel Japan 1,276 1,84 1,629 1,8 1,6 1,6 Mexico 1,94 1,16 2,496 2,6 2, 2, Niger Sudan Taiwan ,669 9,9,687 6,2,69,69 Unaccounted ,784 8,839 6,1 6,39,86,86 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.

27 World Sorghum Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul Production 3,8 3,8 3,8 1,66 2,937 2,79 Argentina 1, 1, 1,6 2,69 3,79 1,283 Australia 2, 2, 1,82 1,91 2, 1, Brazil 1,8 1,8 1,684 1,87 1,7 1,16 Burkina 1, 1, 1,6 1,837 1,92 2,183 China Egypt 2,6 2,6 2,84 2,619 2,69 2,316 Ethiopia , 7, 6,77 7,31 7,93 7,1 India Mali 7, 7, 6, 7,67 6,2,81 Mexico , Niger 11, 11, 11, 11, 1, 1, Nigeria 4, 4, 2,63 4,192 4,,2 Sudan Tanzania 6,41 6,41 6,299 6,3 6,21 6,398 4,422 4,49,216 2,72 3,89,13 8,89 9,17 9,728 11,998 12,636 7,32 63,312 63,426 9,944 64,718 66,44 7,4 Total Consumption 2,4 2,4 2,3 1,1 1,2 1, Argentina 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,8 2,2 1,2 Australia 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,37 Brazil 1,8 1,8 1,684 1,87 1,7 1,16 Burkina 1,7 1,7 1,8 2, 2, 2, China Egypt 2,6 2,6 2,4 2, 2,6 2,3 Ethiopia 7,3 7,3 6, 7,2 7,9 7,1 India 1,6 1,6 1,8 1,6 1,1 1,3 Japan Mali 9,6 9,6 9,9 8,6 7,2 8,1 Mexico ,2 1, 82 Niger 11,6 11,6 11,4 1,9 9,9 1,4 Nigeria 4,3 4,3 3,4 4,,, Sudan Tanzania 8,73 8,73 8,29 8,233 13,9 8,28 7,734 7,734 6,196 6,113 9,89 4,423,27,334 6,96 8,38,81 4,12 62,941 63,68 62,292 64,421 64,89 8,43 Ending Stocks Argentina Australia Brazil India , Mexico Nigeria Sudan 1,16 1, ,464 1,7 1,719 3,69 3,61 3,36,27 4,78 3, ,39 1, ,44 4,73 4,69 6,417 6,12 4,6

28 Regional Sorghum Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Imports North America 1,96 1,17 2,499 2,6 2, 2, South America European Union 1,474, Other Europe Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia 1,349 1,196 1,719 1,91 1,7 1,7 Southeast Asia Total,671 9,6,69 6,2,69,69 Production North America 12,842 18,836 19,6 16,228 16,17 1,89 Central America Caribbean South America,117,661 4,62 6,81 6,732 6,732 European Union Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 26,88 2,28 26,497 24,241 26,876 26,876 East Asia 2,191 1,94 1,87 1,67 1,72 1,72 South Asia 7,3 8,81 7,4 6,91 7,64 7,64 Southeast Asia Oceania 1,283 3,79 2,69 1,6 1, 1, Total 7,4 66,44 64,718 9,944 63,426 63,312 Domestic Consumption North America 12,112 12,281 16,98 1,996 14,934 14,87 Central America Caribbean South America 4,19 4,218 4,79,897,992,992 European Union 1,28 6, Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 26,6 2,98 26,89 2,13 27,198 27,198 East Asia 3,47 3,222 3,699 3,7 3,4 3,4 South Asia 7,28 8,3 7,349 6,84 7,44 7,44 Southeast Asia Oceania 1,2 2,2 1,8 1,1 1,1 1, Total 7,811 64,839 64,1 61,964 62,937 62,81 Ending Stocks North America 1,31 1,713 2,726 1,24 1,394 1,267 Central America South America 444 1, European Union Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 1,681 1,428 1, ,6 1,6 East Asia 1, South Asia Oceania Total 4,6 6,12 6,417 4,69 4,73 4,44 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years.

29 World Oats Trade October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Exports Argentina 2 1 Australia Brazil Canada 1,921 2,321 1,789 1, 1, 1, Chile Russia ,146 2,69 2,16 1,99 2,4 1, ,179 2,743 2,144 2,3 2,9 2,4 TY Imports Argentina Bosnia and Herzegovina Canada China Colombia Ecuador Japan Mexico Morocco Norway South Africa Switzerland Turkey Uruguay Unaccounted ,794 2,244 1,787 1,6 1, 1,6 2,179 2,743 2,144 2,3 2,9 2,4 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.

30 World Oats Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul Production Algeria Argentina 1,26 1,26 1,26 1,16 1,2 748 Australia Belarus Brazil 2,8 3, 2,8 4,273 4,696 3,82 Canada Chile China 8,317 8,26 8,17 8,97 8,634 7, Kazakhstan Mexico Norway,,,4,8,4 4,9 Russia Turkey 73 9 Ukraine ,8 22,923 22,8 24,841 24,61 21,686 1,273 1,36 1,31 1,294 1,313 1,37 23,33 24,229 24,16 26,13 2,923 23,43 Total Consumption Algeria Argentina 1,1 1,1 1,1 1,3 1,33 71 Australia Belarus Brazil 1,77 2,7 1,7 1,77 1,933 2,283 Canada Chile China 8,2 8,3 8,3 8, 8,6 7, Kazakhstan Mexico Norway,1,1,6,4,4 4,9 Russia Turkey Ukraine ,36 21,83 21,821 21,43 22,3 2,12 3,16 3,44 3,7 2,968 3,161 3,179 24,322 24,627 24,828 24,11 2,466 23,331 Ending Stocks Argentina Australia Belarus ,142 1, Canada China ,9 1, Russia ,4 2,684 3,138 3,7 2,383 2, ,27 1,166 1, ,33 3,891 4,34 4,976 3,32 2,89

31 Regional Oats Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 Jun Jul TY Imports North America 1,873 2,392 1,883 1,71 1,81 1,71 South America European Union 2 4 Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East North Africa 14 6 Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia Oceania 3 2 Total 2,144 2,67 2,11 1,98 2,3 1,96 Production North America,361 6,133,71 4,299,14 4,221 South America 1,33 1,34 1,133 1,361 1,266 1,266 European Union 7,768 8,634 8,97 8,17 8,26 8,317 Other Europe Former Soviet Union ,296 6,71 7,1 7,9 6,66 6,66 Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia Oceania 823 1,77 1,23 1,33 1,33 1,33 Total 23,43 2,923 26,13 24,16 24,229 23,33 Domestic Consumption North America,77,329 4,948,7,364,36 South America 1,33 1,326 1,121 1,36 1,26 1,26 European Union 7,647 8,6 8, 8,3 8,3 8,2 Other Europe Former Soviet Union ,266 6,68 7,9 7,28 6,76 6,76 Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia Oceania 78 1,41 1,11 1,17 1,17 1,17 Total 23,416 2,146 24,496 24,91 24,92 24,194 Ending Stocks North America 1,298 1,927 2,7 2,313 2,147 1,62 South America European Union ,12 1, Other Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia Oceania Total 2,89 3,32 4,976 4,34 3,891 3,33 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years.