CHARTS AND PRICE PROJECTIONS
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1 CHARTS AND PRICE PROJECTIONS
2 18 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook Average Annual GDP Growth, Percent Change Canada China EU India Japan Latin America Mexico Middle East South Korea U.S. Average Annual Exchange Rate Growth, (local currency per U.S. dollar) Percent Change Argentina Brazil EU-1 3 largest EU NMS* Japan China Australia New Thailand India Canada Mexico Zealand * Hungary, Czech Republic, and Poland.
3 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 19 U.S. Biofuel Use Mandates Billion Gallons Conventional Advanced U.S. Conservation Reserve Program Area Million Acres
4 2 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Crop Planted Area Million Acres /98 99/ 1/2 3/4 /6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 1/16 17/18 Wheat Corn Soybeans U.S. Crop Exports Billion Bushels /98 99/ 1/2 3/4 /6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 1/16 17/18 Wheat Corn Soybeans
5 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 21 U.S. Crop Prices Dollars per Bushel /98 99/ 1/2 3/4 /6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 1/16 17/18 Wheat Corn Soybeans U.S. Feed and Residual Disappearance /98 99/ 1/2 3/4 /6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 1/16 17/18 Corn Corn By-Products Other Grains Oilseed Meals
6 22 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Biofuel Production Billion Gallons Corn-based Other ethanol Biodiesel U.S. Farm-Level Prices Paid Indices Index, = Fertilizer Fuel
7 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 23 U.S. Cattle and Barrow and Gilt Prices Dollars per cwt * National Base 1-2% Lean Equivalent Barrows and Gilts, Nat'l Base* NB Direct Fed Steers U.S. Poultry Wholesale Prices Cents per Pound City Broiler Eastern Region Turkey
8 24 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Livestock Production Billion Pounds Beef Pork Broilers U.S. Meat Net Exports Billion Pounds Beef Pork Broilers
9 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 2 U.S. Milk Production Billion Pounds U.S. Milk Prices Dollars per cwt Class III Class IV All Milk Support
10 26 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook U.S. Land Use Million Acres Crop Planted Area 13 Crops + Hay 13 Crops + Hay + CRP Mandatory U.S. Government Outlays, Fiscal Year Billion Dollars /98 99/ 1/2 3/4 /6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 1/16 17/18 Net CCC Outlays NRCS Conservation Crop Insurance
11 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 27 U.S. Farm Income Billion Dollars Net Farm Real NFI (1997$) U.S. Consumer Price Index for Food Percent * * Percentage increase in CPI for food vs. previous year.
12 28 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Wheat Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton 3 Percent / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 U.S. FOB Gulf Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio World Wheat Net Trade and U.S. Market Share 12 Percent / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Net Trade U.S. Market Share
13 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 29 World Rice Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton Percent / / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 FOB Bangkok 1% B Grade Stocks-to-Use Ratio World Rice Net Exports Thousand Metric Tons 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, 1997/ / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 India Pakistan Thailand U.S. Vietnam
14 3 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Coarse Grain Supply and Utilization / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Production Consumption Net Trade World Corn Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Metric Ton 2 Percent / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 U.S. FOB Gulf Price Stocks-to-Use Ratio
15 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 31 World Corn Net Trade and U.S. Market Share 12 Percent / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Net Trade U.S. Market Share World Barley and Sorghum Net Trade and Prices 3 U.S. Dollar per Metric Ton / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Barley Net Trade Sorghum Net Trade Barley Price, Canada Feed FOB Sorghum Price, FOB Gulf
16 32 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Soybean Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares 12 Dollars per Metric Ton / / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina Brazil China U.S. Other Soybean Price, Rotterdam World Soybean Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 U.S. Argentina Brazil Other Exports EU China Japan Other Imports
17 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 33 World Soybean Crush / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina Brazil China EU India Japan U.S. Other World Soybean Meal Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 U.S. Argentina Brazil Other Exports EU Japan Mexico Other Imports
18 34 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Soybean Oil Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina Brazil EU U.S. Other Exports China India South Korea Other Imports Soybean Oil Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries Kilograms per Person / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 China India Japan U.S. EU Taiwan Brazil
19 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 3 World Rapeseed Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares 3 Dollars per Metric Ton / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Australia Canada China EU India Other Rapeseed Price, Hamburg World Rapeseed Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Australia Canada CIS Other Exports China EU Japan Other Imports
20 36 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Rapeseed Meal Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Canada CIS India Other Exports China U.S. Other Imports World Rapeseed Oil Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Australia Canada CIS Other Exports China EU U.S. Other Imports
21 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 37 World Sunflower Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares 3 Dollars per Metric Ton / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina China EU CIS Other Sunflower Price, CIF Lower Rhine World Sunflower Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina CIS Other Exports EU Other Imports
22 38 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Sunflower Meal Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina CIS U.S. Other Exports EU Other Imports World Sunflower Oil Net Trade / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina CIS Other Exports China EU Other Imports
23 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 39 World Palm Oil Net Trade and Price Dollars per Metric Ton 1,4 1,2 1, / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Indonesia Malaysia Other Exports China EU India Other Imports Palm Oil Price, CIF Rotterdam World Peanut Area Harvested and Price Million Hectares Dollars per Metric Ton 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Argentina China India U.S. Other Peanut Price, U.S. Runners 4/, CIF Rotterdam
24 4 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Cotton Consumption Thousand Metric Tons 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1,, 1997/ / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Africa Asia CIS Latin America N. America ROW World Cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio Versus Price Dollars per Pound Percent / / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 A-Index NE Stocks-to-Use
25 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 41 Major Sugar Net Exporters and World Raw Sugar Price Dollars per Metric Ton / / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 Australia Brazil Guatemala India Thailand FOB Caribbean Price Major Sugar Net Importers / / 21/2 23/4 2/6 27/8 29/1 211/12 213/14 21/16 217/18 EU Indonesia Japan Russia and Ukraine South Korea United States
26 42 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook World Ethanol Price and Net Trade Million gallons 4, Dollars per gallon 2. 3, 3, 2. 2, 1. 2, 1, 1. 1, * Represents world ethanol price. Net Exports Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil * World Biodiesel Price and Net Trade Million gallons 1, Dollars per gallon * Represents world biodiesel price. Net Trade Central Europe FOB Price *
27 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 43 World Meat Production and Trade Thousand Metric Tons 9, 8, 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, Beef Production Pork Production Poultry Production Beef Trade (tmt) Pork Trade (tmt) Poultry Trade (tmt) Per Capita Meat Consumption Kilograms per Person Beef Pork Poultry
28 44 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook Major Beef Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, China Japan Russia Mexico South Korea Egypt Philippines Beef Export Market Share* Percent Australia Brazil New Zealand India Argentina Canada * Based on net exports. 23/27 28/ /217
29 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 4 Major Pork Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, - -1, China Japan Russia Hong Kong Mexico Philippines Pork Export Market Share* Percent EU Canada U.S. Brazil * Based on net exports. 23/27 28/ /217
30 46 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook Major Broiler Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, China Japan Russia Hong Kong Saudi Arabia Mexico Broiler Export Market Share* Percent U.S. Brazil EU Thailand * Based on net exports. 23/27 28/ /217
31 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 47 Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1, , Australia EU New Zealand Other Exports Asia Egypt Mexico Russia Other Imports Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 1, 1, - -1, -1, Australia Argentina EU New Zealand Ukraine Other Exports Japan Russia United States Other Imports
32 48 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook NFD Trade for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 2, 1, 1, - -1, -1, -2, Australia EU New Zealand U.S. Other Exports Indonesia Mexico Philippines Thailand Other Imports WMP Trade for Selected Countries Thousand Metric Tons 2, 1, 1, - -1, -1, -2, Argentina Australia EU New Zealand Other Exports Algeria Asia Saudi Arabia Venezuela Other Imports
33 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 49 Commodity Price Projections 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/1 1/16 16/17 17/18 Wheat U.S. FOB Gulf Canadian Wheat Board AWB Limited Export Quote European Union Market Rice FOB U.S. Houston FOB Bangkok % Broken FOB Bangkok 1% B Grade Corn FOB U.S. Gulf CIF Rotterdam Barley Canada Feed Sorghum FOB U.S. Gulf Soybeans Illinois Processor CIF Rotterdam Soybean Meal FOB Decatur 48% CIF Rotterdam Soybean Oil FOB Decatur FOB Rotterdam Rapeseed CIF Hamburg Cash Vancouver Rapeseed Meal FOB Hamburg Rapeseed Oil FOB Hamburg Sunflower CIF Lower Rhine Sunflower Meal CIF Rotterdam Sunflower Oil FOB NW Europe Palm Oil CIF Rotterdam Palm Kernel Meal CIF Rotterdam Palm Kernel Oil CIF Rotterdam (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) ,18 1,92 1,162 1,191 1,211 1,237 1,264 1,291 1,329 1,36 1,24 1,236 1,324 1,46 1,441 1,464 1,496 1,28 1,6 1,64 1, ,483 1,281 1,414 1,49 1,436 1,467 1, 1,43 1,87 1,642 1, ,43 1,424 1,464 1,8 1,21 1,48 1,82 1,619 1,68 1,71 1,739 1,46 1,4 1,26 1,7 1,81 1,11 1,146 1,18 1,229 1,27 1, ,22 1,187 1,181 1,193 1,28 1,228 1,23 1,282 1,316 1,33 1,389
34 / Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook Commodity Price Projections (continued) Peanut, U.S. Runners 4/ CIF Rotterdam Peanut Meal 48/%, Southeast Mills FOB Peanut Oil CIF Rotterdam Sugar FOB Caribbean (raw) New York Spot (raw) Cotton Cotlook A Index U.S. Farm (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,646 1,8 1,63 1,42 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,21 1,12 1,4 1, ,888 1,829 1,88 1,878 1,88 1,889 1,92 1,916 1,927 1,947 1, ,619 1,73 1,713 1,713 1,697 1,674 1,662 1,668 1,678 1,68 1,678 1,264 1,428 1,42 1,44 1,392 1,381 1,376 1,387 1,394 1,39 1,39 Beef Nebraska Direct Fed-Steer U.S. Retail Steer Price, Alberta Australian Export (CIF U.S.) 2,24 2,7 2,27 2, 1,979 1,971 1,987 2,17 2,3 2,96 2,138 9,168 9,469 9,48 9,47 9,394 9,382 9,487 9,693 9,923 1,184 1,43 1,84 1,883 1,839 1,814 1,79 1,788 1,88 1,842 1,88 1,92 1,966 2,8 2,2 2,6 2,49 2,482 2,479 2,486 2,498 2,12 2,29 2,4 Japanese Farm Dairy beef Wagyu beef Pork Barrows and Gilts National Base 1-2% Lean Equivalent U.S. Retail Ontario Hogs Index Japanese Wholesale Chicken U.S. 12-City Wholesale U.S. Retail EU Producer Japanese Wholesale 7,21 9,269 9,29 9,39 9,487 9,63 9,72 9,868 9,969 1,8 1,167 17,889 17,773 17,472 17,788 18,168 18,7 18,821 18,9 19,2 19,48 19,4 1, ,41 1,14 1,19 1,23 1,178 1,131 1,19 1,143 1,171 6,328 6,29 6,43 6,71 7,29 7,218 7,2 7,17 7,11 7,246 7,46 1,147 1,31 1,137 1,27 1,348 1,366 1,338 1,279 1,23 1,33 1,341 4,161 4,392 4,631 4,89,16,1,6 4,931 4,92 4,984,46 1,684 1,648 1,64 1,63 1,631 1,62 1,671 1,72 1,729 1,747 1,762 3,64 3,694 3,762 3,84 3,834 3,88 3,93 3,996 4,62 4,114 4,16 2,31 2,34 2,188 2,9 2,37 2,18 2,28 2,61 2,94 2,12 2,146 1,94 2,1 2,132 2,162 2,187 2,237 2,283 2,33 2,378 2,414 2,443 Turkey U.S. Wholesale U.S. Retail 1,811 1,824 1,863 1,878 1,899 1,926 1,94 1,98 1,977 1,98 1,988 2,3 2,77 2,67 2,648 2,687 2,72 2,73 2,783 2,813 2,831 2,84
35 Charts and Price Projections: FAPRI 28 Agricultural Outlook / 1 Commodity Price Projections (continued) Milk U.S. All Milk Canadian Fluid Milk Australian Average Milk Cheese FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Canadian Wholesale Australian Export Butter FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export Nonfat Dry Milk FOB Northern Europe U.S. Wholesale Australian Export Whole Milk Powder FOB Northern Europe Australian Export (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) ,24 4,1 3,929 3,892 3,813 3,77 3,72 3,781 3,783 3,827 3,8 3,87 3,24 3,19 3,36 3,44 3,6 3,44 3,44 3,8 3,86 3,623 9,137 9,92 9,868 9,897 9,93 1,27 9,97 9,89 9,863 9,94 1,93 4,22 3,889 3,732 3,698 3,626 3,86 3,69 3,96 3,98 3,638 3,664 3,979 3,1 3,189 3,3 2,89 2,879 2,862 2,887 2,922 3,8 3,31 3,16 2,89 2,91 2,68 2,678 2,744 2,728 2,76 2,812 2,817 2,784 2,938 2,667 2,477 2,387 2,3 2,296 2,286 2,31 2,321 2,372 2,38 4,436 3,7 3,48 3,382 3,32 3,243 3,21 3,27 3,297 3,343 3,366 3,977 3,367 3,381 3,33 3,282 3,237 3,183 3,144 3,123 3,137 3,174 4,316 3,499 3,182 3,6 2,964 2,894 2,93 2,926 2,98 3,14 3,41 4,624 3,897 3,2 3,46 3,289 3,233 3,228 3,24 3,283 3,37 3,42 4,167 3,26 3,177 3,92 2,989 2,939 2,93 2,98 2,984 3,49 3,89
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