World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation March 2018

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1 World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation March 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released March 8, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.

2 Highlights of USDA s 217/18 Supply and Demand Estimates /18 global wheat production to reach a new record of 759 Global supplies estimate to grow to 8.28 ; up 1% from the 216/17 and a new record Wheat production in Argentina to fell to 18., 2% below 216/17 U.S. wheat production estimated at 47.4, 19% below the 5-year average 2. Consumption forecast at a record 743, 5% above the 5-year average Chinese domestic consumption to total 117, 1% below the 5-year average, if realized U.S. domestic consumption to slip 4% year over year to 3.4 due to lower wheat feeding and seed usage 3. World wheat trade projected at 182, down 1% from 216/17, but 1% above the 5-year average Russian exports to rise to 37.5, 35% above 216/17 and 7% above the 5-year average Exports from the EU to fall 8% year over year to 25. U.S. 217/18 exports to decrease to 25.2, down 12% from 216/17

3 Highlights of USDA s 217/18 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 253, up 5% year over year Beginning stocks in India totaled 9.8, 48% below the 5-year average U.S. beginning stocks rose to an estimated 32.1, 21% above 216/17 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at record 269, 6% higher than 216/17, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 127 account for 47% of global ending stocks, 57% greater than the 5-year average Exporter ending stocks forecast at 71.2, up 1% compared to 216/17 Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65.7, 7% below the 5-year average of U.S. farm gate average price forecast 2% higher in 217/18 Projected average range: $4.6 to $4.7/bushel ($169-$173/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average

4 World Production and Use Production Use

5 Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

6 World Wheat Supply and Demand 15/16 16/17 17/18 SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks Production Supply Total TRADE: Exports/Imports DEMAND Food & Seed Feed & Residual Use Total ENDING STOCKS:

7 World Beginning Stocks /4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

8 Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio Percent /4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 *Ending stocks

9 Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China Percent /4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 *Ending stocks

10 World Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

11 World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) China 127 Exporters 76.4 Importers 65.7

12 Global Ending Stocks and Price $US/MT /9 93/94 97/98 1/2 5/6 9/1 13/14 17/18 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price

13 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

14 Canada Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

15 Canada Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

16 Australia Situation /7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

17 Australia Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

18 Argentina Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

19 Argentina Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

20 EU-27 Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

21 EU-27 Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

22 Russia Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

23 Russia Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

24 Black Sea Region Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.

25 Black Sea Exports /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan

26 Black Sea Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

27 U.S. Situation /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use

28 U.S. Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

29 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

30 Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) /18 216/17

31 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average

32 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date /18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS export sales report March 1, 218.

33 3.5 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 216/17 vs. 215/ /17 215/16 Source: USDA FAS 216/17 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 217.

34 World Wheat Imports /9 93/94 97/98 1/2 5/6 9/1 13/14 17/18 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )

35 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

36 U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class Million Acres /9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Spring & Durum *Source: USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, February 23, 217

37 U.S. Hard Red Winter /13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

38 U.S. Hard Red Spring /13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

39 U.S. Soft Red Winter /13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

40 U.S. White /13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

41 U.S. Durum /13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

42 U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) HRW HRS White SRW Durum 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS export sales report February 8, 218.

43 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class HRW HRS SRW White Durum 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

44 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 62% 61% 41% 36% 67% 76%

45 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 16/17 17/18 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 4% 26% 29% 34% 53% 51%

46 U.S. FOB Gulf Prices 35 3 $/Metric Ton HRW ords HRS 14% SRW

47 U.S. FOB PNW Prices 4 35 $/Metric Ton HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW

48 SRW and Soft White Prices $/Metric Ton SW SRW

49 U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 $/Metric Ton Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW

50 U.S. PNW Basis Prices 25 2 $/Metric Ton Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 HRS 14 HRW 12

51 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

52 U.S. Wheat Area and Production Production () and Harvested Area (mh) MT/hectares 15 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.

53 U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison Million Hectares /96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 3, 217

54 World Wheat Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () Trade () /7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Production Use Trade 1

55 World Corn Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () Trade () /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade

56 World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () Trade () /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade

57 Ocean Freight Rates for Grains $/metric ton /12/16 3/12/16 4/12/16 5/12/16 6/12/16 7/12/16 8/12/16 9/12/16 1/12/16 11/12/16 12/12/16 1/12/17 2/12/17 3/12/17 4/12/17 5/12/17 6/12/17 7/12/17 8/12/17 9/12/17 1/12/17 11/12/17 12/12/17 1/12/18 2/12/18 PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa

58 Summary Global production at a record 759, up 1% from 216/17 Ukrainian wheat production reached 27., 1% below 216/17 Wheat production in the U.S. totaled 47.4, 19% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to rise to a record 269, 23% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in Canada to fall to 6.14, 1% below 216/17 U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 28.2, down 12% from 216/17, if realized World consumption expected to increase 1% in 217/18, trade down slightly Indonesia expected to be the largest wheat importer at 12.5, 23% above 216/17 U.S. 217/18 exports to total 25.2, 3% behind the 5-year average, if realized

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