FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005

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1 FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL OILSEEDS Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (515)

2 International Macroeconomic Outlook Percent Growth of GDP Deflator Real GDP Growth Per Capita Percent Change in Exchange Rate Argentina, Brazil, China and EU-15

3 Percent Growth of GDP Deflator 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Argentina Brazil China EU 15

4 Real GDP Growth Per Capita 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Argentina Brazil China EU 15

5 Percent Change in Exchange Rate 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% Argentina Brazil China EU

6 International Oilseeds Outlook World South America China European Union Canada Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Palm Oil

7 World Oilseed Area Thousand Hectares 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Peanut Palm Kernel

8 World Oilseed Prices (CIF Rotterdam, Hamburg) Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower

9 World Vegetable Oil Prices (FOB Rotterdam, Hamburg) Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Palm Oil

10 World Protein Meal Prices (CIF Rotterdam, FOB Hamburg) Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower

11 World Soybean Production 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China Argentina ROW

12 World Soybean Consumption 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil EU China Argentina ROW

13 World Soybean Meal Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China EU ROW

14 World Soybean Oil Consumption 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China EU India ROW

15 World Soybean Sector Net Trade 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybeans Soymeal Soyoil

16 Argentina and Brazil Soybean area expansion Development of soybean yields Domestic crush and export of soybeans Domestic utilization of soybean meal Argentina s sunflower sector Area development Seed and meal exports

17 Soybean Area in Argentina and Brazil Thousand Hectares 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil

18 Soybean Yields in Argentina and Brazil MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil

19 Argentine Soybean Production, Crush, and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade

20 Argentine Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 3, 3, 25, 25, 2, 2, 15, 15, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

21 Brazilian Soybean Production, Crush, and Net Trade 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade

22 Brazilian Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 4, 35, 3, 25, 25, 2, 15, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

23 Argentine Sunflower Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 8, 7, 6, 5, MT per Hectare , 3, 2, 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield

24 China Area shares of oilseeds Soybean production and use Development of soybean imports Vegetable oil consumption Rapeseed production and use

25 Chinese Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans Peanuts

26 Chinese Soybean Area and Yield Thousand Hectares 12, MT per Hectare 2.2 1, 2. 8, 1.8 6, 1.6 4, 1.4 2, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 1. Area Yield

27 Chinese Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

28 Chinese Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

29 Chinese Per Capita Oil Consumption KG per capita / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soyoil Sunoil Rapeoil Peanut Oil Palm Oil

30 Chinese Soybean Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

31 Chinese Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

32 Chinese Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

33 European Union Total oilseed area Rapeseed and sunflower areas Domestic crush and net trade of oilseeds Import of soybeans vs. soybean meal Production, consumption and net trade of rapeseed and sunflowers

34 EU Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans

35 EU-15 Soybean Production, Consumption and, Net Trade 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

36 EU-15 Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 35, 25, 15, 5, -5, -15, -25, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

37 EU-15 Soybean Meal Imports vs. Soybean Imports 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Imports Soybean Imports

38 EU Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

39 EU-15 Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

40 EU Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 2, 17, 14, 11, 8, 5, 2, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

41 EU-15 Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

42 EU Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade

43 EU Vegetable Oil Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Food Use Industrial Use

44 EU-15 Sunflower Seed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

45 EU Sunflower Seed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 7,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5-1,5-3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

46 Canada Development of Canola Sector Rapeseed area development Expected yields Domestic crush and net trade of canola Rapeseed meal and oil exports

47 Canadian Rapeseed Area and Yield Thousand Hectares MT per Hectare 6, , 1.6 4, , ,.6 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Yield

48 Canadian Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 12, 6, 1, 5, 8, 4, 6, 3, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

49 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Sunflower area and yield Future of the crushing industry Domestic use of protein meals Import of soybean meal

50 CIS Sunflower Area and Yield Thousand Hectares 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16. Yield Area

51 CIS Sunflower Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 14, 3, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

52 Palm Oil Developments in Malaysia and Indonesia World palm oil trade

53 Malaysian Palm Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 25, 2, 18, 2, 16, 14, 15, 12, 1, 1, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

54 Indonesian Palm Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 25, 2, 18, 2, 16, 14, 15, 12, 1, 1, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

55 Palm Oil Net Trade 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Indonesia Malaysia China EU India

56 Thank You

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64 Soybean Complex Rotterdam Prices Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Soymeal Soybean Oil

65 Rapeseed Complex Hamburg Prices Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Rapeseed Meal Rapeseed Oil

66 Sunflower Complex Rotterdam Prices Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Sunflower Seed Sunflower Meal Sunflower Oil

67 Export Production Ratio of Major Soybean Exporters Percent 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil United States

68 Soybean Crush in Major Importing Countries 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 EU China Japan

69 Major Soybean Exporters 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Argentina Brazil

70 World Vegetable Oil Production 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Peanut Palm Oil

71 Brazilian Soybean Oil Production, Consumption and Exports 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Exports

72 Argentinean Sunflower Production, Crush, and Exports 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Exports

73 Argentinean Sunflower Meal Production and Utilization 7, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Exports

74 Argentinean Sunflower Meal Exports and EU Imports 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentinean Exports EU Imports

75 Argentinean Sunflower Oil Supply and Utilization 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Exports

76 Graphic from: Feedstuffs vol. 72, # 4

77 Chinese Cultivated Area Thousand Hectares 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16

78 Chinese Total Sown Area Thousand Hectares 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16

79 EU Soybean Market Soybean Imports Soybean Meal Imports Soybean Crush Meal Oil Soybean Meal Use Soybean Oil Use Soybean Production Soybean Oil Exports

80 EU Soybean Market Soybean Imports Soybean Meal Imports Soybean Crush Meal Oil Soybean Meal Use Soybean Oil Use Soybean Production Soybean Oil Exports

81 EU Soybean and Meal Imports 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Soybeans

82 EU Soybean Production, Consumption and, Net Trade 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

83 EU Oilseed Meal Trade 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal

84 EU Soybean Crush and Imports 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Crush Imports

85 EU Protein Meal Utilization 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal

86 EU Soybean Meal Utilization and HPAU 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand HPAU 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization High Protein Animal Units

87 EU Soybean Oil Production, Utilization, and Net-Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16-2 Production Utilization Trade

88 EU Rapeseed Meal Production, Utilization and Net-Trade 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade

89 EU Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

90 EU Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

91 EU-15 Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans

92 EU-15 Soybean and Meal Imports 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Soybeans

93 EU-15 Oilseed Meal Trade 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal

94 EU-15 Soybean Crush and Imports 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Crush Imports

95 EU-15 Protein Meal Utilization 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal

96 EU-15 Soybean Meal Utilization and HPAU 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand HPAU 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization High Protein Animal Units

97 EU-15 Soybean Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

98 EU-15 Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

99 EU-15 Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

100 EU-15 Sunflower Oil Production, Utilization and Net-Trade 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade

101 EU-15 Vegetable Oil Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Food Use Industrial Use

102 EU New Member States Oilseed area Rapeseed, sunflowers, soybeans Development of domestic crushing industries Feed and industrial utilization of protein meals Food consumption and industrial uses of vegetable oils

103 EU New Member States Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

104 EU New Member States Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield

105 EU New Member States Sunflower Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 1,4 MT per Hectare 2.2 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield

106 EU New Member States Rapeseed Oil Production and Use 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Industrial Use Food Use

107 EU New Member States Oilseed Production and Protein Meal Net Trade (Production) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (Trade) ,2-1,6-2, -2,4-2,8-3,2-3,6-4, -4,4-4,8-5,2 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Production Rapeseed Production Sunflower Production Soymeal Net Trade Rapemeal Net Trade Sunmeal Net Trade

108 EU New Member States Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade

109 EU New Member States Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

110 EU New Member States Sunflower Production, Crush and Net Trade 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade

111 EU New Member States Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

112 EU New Member States Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

113 EU New Member States Soybean Production, Crush and Net Trade / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade

114 EU New Member States Soybean Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

115 CIS Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

116 CIS Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

117 CIS Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

118 Canadian Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

119 Canadian Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

120 CIS Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 2, 1,5 1, , 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade

121 Asian Soybean Imports 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Japan South Korea Taiwan

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