FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005
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1 FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL OILSEEDS Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (515)
2 International Macroeconomic Outlook Percent Growth of GDP Deflator Real GDP Growth Per Capita Percent Change in Exchange Rate Argentina, Brazil, China and EU-15
3 Percent Growth of GDP Deflator 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Argentina Brazil China EU 15
4 Real GDP Growth Per Capita 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Argentina Brazil China EU 15
5 Percent Change in Exchange Rate 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% Argentina Brazil China EU
6 International Oilseeds Outlook World South America China European Union Canada Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Palm Oil
7 World Oilseed Area Thousand Hectares 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Peanut Palm Kernel
8 World Oilseed Prices (CIF Rotterdam, Hamburg) Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower
9 World Vegetable Oil Prices (FOB Rotterdam, Hamburg) Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Palm Oil
10 World Protein Meal Prices (CIF Rotterdam, FOB Hamburg) Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower
11 World Soybean Production 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China Argentina ROW
12 World Soybean Consumption 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil EU China Argentina ROW
13 World Soybean Meal Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China EU ROW
14 World Soybean Oil Consumption 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Brazil China EU India ROW
15 World Soybean Sector Net Trade 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybeans Soymeal Soyoil
16 Argentina and Brazil Soybean area expansion Development of soybean yields Domestic crush and export of soybeans Domestic utilization of soybean meal Argentina s sunflower sector Area development Seed and meal exports
17 Soybean Area in Argentina and Brazil Thousand Hectares 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil
18 Soybean Yields in Argentina and Brazil MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil
19 Argentine Soybean Production, Crush, and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
20 Argentine Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 3, 3, 25, 25, 2, 2, 15, 15, 1, 1, 5, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
21 Brazilian Soybean Production, Crush, and Net Trade 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
22 Brazilian Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 4, 35, 3, 25, 25, 2, 15, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
23 Argentine Sunflower Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 8, 7, 6, 5, MT per Hectare , 3, 2, 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield
24 China Area shares of oilseeds Soybean production and use Development of soybean imports Vegetable oil consumption Rapeseed production and use
25 Chinese Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans Peanuts
26 Chinese Soybean Area and Yield Thousand Hectares 12, MT per Hectare 2.2 1, 2. 8, 1.8 6, 1.6 4, 1.4 2, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 1. Area Yield
27 Chinese Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
28 Chinese Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
29 Chinese Per Capita Oil Consumption KG per capita / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soyoil Sunoil Rapeoil Peanut Oil Palm Oil
30 Chinese Soybean Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
31 Chinese Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
32 Chinese Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
33 European Union Total oilseed area Rapeseed and sunflower areas Domestic crush and net trade of oilseeds Import of soybeans vs. soybean meal Production, consumption and net trade of rapeseed and sunflowers
34 EU Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans
35 EU-15 Soybean Production, Consumption and, Net Trade 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
36 EU-15 Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 35, 25, 15, 5, -5, -15, -25, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
37 EU-15 Soybean Meal Imports vs. Soybean Imports 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Imports Soybean Imports
38 EU Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
39 EU-15 Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
40 EU Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 2, 17, 14, 11, 8, 5, 2, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
41 EU-15 Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
42 EU Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
43 EU Vegetable Oil Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Food Use Industrial Use
44 EU-15 Sunflower Seed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
45 EU Sunflower Seed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 7,5 6, 4,5 3, 1,5-1,5-3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
46 Canada Development of Canola Sector Rapeseed area development Expected yields Domestic crush and net trade of canola Rapeseed meal and oil exports
47 Canadian Rapeseed Area and Yield Thousand Hectares MT per Hectare 6, , 1.6 4, , ,.6 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Yield
48 Canadian Rapeseed Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 12, 6, 1, 5, 8, 4, 6, 3, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
49 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Sunflower area and yield Future of the crushing industry Domestic use of protein meals Import of soybean meal
50 CIS Sunflower Area and Yield Thousand Hectares 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16. Yield Area
51 CIS Sunflower Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 14, 3, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
52 Palm Oil Developments in Malaysia and Indonesia World palm oil trade
53 Malaysian Palm Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 25, 2, 18, 2, 16, 14, 15, 12, 1, 1, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
54 Indonesian Palm Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 25, 2, 18, 2, 16, 14, 15, 12, 1, 1, 8, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
55 Palm Oil Net Trade 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, -8, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Indonesia Malaysia China EU India
56 Thank You
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64 Soybean Complex Rotterdam Prices Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Soymeal Soybean Oil
65 Rapeseed Complex Hamburg Prices Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Rapeseed Meal Rapeseed Oil
66 Sunflower Complex Rotterdam Prices Dollars per MT / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Sunflower Seed Sunflower Meal Sunflower Oil
67 Export Production Ratio of Major Soybean Exporters Percent 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentina Brazil United States
68 Soybean Crush in Major Importing Countries 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 EU China Japan
69 Major Soybean Exporters 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 United States Argentina Brazil
70 World Vegetable Oil Production 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Rapeseed Sunflower Peanut Palm Oil
71 Brazilian Soybean Oil Production, Consumption and Exports 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Exports
72 Argentinean Sunflower Production, Crush, and Exports 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Exports
73 Argentinean Sunflower Meal Production and Utilization 7, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Exports
74 Argentinean Sunflower Meal Exports and EU Imports 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Argentinean Exports EU Imports
75 Argentinean Sunflower Oil Supply and Utilization 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Exports
76 Graphic from: Feedstuffs vol. 72, # 4
77 Chinese Cultivated Area Thousand Hectares 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
78 Chinese Total Sown Area Thousand Hectares 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
79 EU Soybean Market Soybean Imports Soybean Meal Imports Soybean Crush Meal Oil Soybean Meal Use Soybean Oil Use Soybean Production Soybean Oil Exports
80 EU Soybean Market Soybean Imports Soybean Meal Imports Soybean Crush Meal Oil Soybean Meal Use Soybean Oil Use Soybean Production Soybean Oil Exports
81 EU Soybean and Meal Imports 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Soybeans
82 EU Soybean Production, Consumption and, Net Trade 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
83 EU Oilseed Meal Trade 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
84 EU Soybean Crush and Imports 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Crush Imports
85 EU Protein Meal Utilization 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
86 EU Soybean Meal Utilization and HPAU 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand HPAU 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization High Protein Animal Units
87 EU Soybean Oil Production, Utilization, and Net-Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16-2 Production Utilization Trade
88 EU Rapeseed Meal Production, Utilization and Net-Trade 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
89 EU Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
90 EU Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
91 EU-15 Oilseed Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Rapeseed Sunflowers Soybeans
92 EU-15 Soybean and Meal Imports 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Soybeans
93 EU-15 Oilseed Meal Trade 5, -5, -1, -15, -2, -25, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
94 EU-15 Soybean Crush and Imports 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Crush Imports
95 EU-15 Protein Meal Utilization 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soymeal Rapemeal Sunmeal
96 EU-15 Soybean Meal Utilization and HPAU 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand HPAU 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization High Protein Animal Units
97 EU-15 Soybean Oil Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
98 EU-15 Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
99 EU-15 Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
100 EU-15 Sunflower Oil Production, Utilization and Net-Trade 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
101 EU-15 Vegetable Oil Consumption 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Food Use Industrial Use
102 EU New Member States Oilseed area Rapeseed, sunflowers, soybeans Development of domestic crushing industries Feed and industrial utilization of protein meals Food consumption and industrial uses of vegetable oils
103 EU New Member States Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
104 EU New Member States Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 MT per Hectare / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield
105 EU New Member States Sunflower Area, Yield, and Production Thousand ha 1,4 MT per Hectare 2.2 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Area Production Yield
106 EU New Member States Rapeseed Oil Production and Use 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Industrial Use Food Use
107 EU New Member States Oilseed Production and Protein Meal Net Trade (Production) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (Trade) ,2-1,6-2, -2,4-2,8-3,2-3,6-4, -4,4-4,8-5,2 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Soybean Production Rapeseed Production Sunflower Production Soymeal Net Trade Rapemeal Net Trade Sunmeal Net Trade
108 EU New Member States Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Utilization Trade
109 EU New Member States Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
110 EU New Member States Sunflower Production, Crush and Net Trade 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
111 EU New Member States Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
112 EU New Member States Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
113 EU New Member States Soybean Production, Crush and Net Trade / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Crush Net Trade
114 EU New Member States Soybean Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, -6, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
115 CIS Sunflower Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
116 CIS Sunflower Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
117 CIS Soybean Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
118 Canadian Rapeseed Meal Production, Consumption and Net Trade 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
119 Canadian Rapeseed Oil Production, Consumption and Net Trade 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, / / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
120 CIS Soybean Meal Production, Consumption, and Net Trade 2, 1,5 1, , 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
121 Asian Soybean Imports 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/ / 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Japan South Korea Taiwan
FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005
FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Fengxia Dong (515) 294-47 fdong@iastate.edu Center for Agricultural and Rural
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