World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation August 2018

Transcription

1 World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation August 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released August 1, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.

2 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates /19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 13 ; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in the EU to fall to 138, down 9% year over year, if realized U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.1, 8% above 217/18, if realized 2. Consumption forecast at a record 744, 4% above the 5-year average Russian domestic consumption to decline to 38., 16% below 217/18, if realized U.S. domestic consumption to grow 7% year over year to World wheat trade projected at a record 184, 6% above the 5-year average Russian exports to drop to 35., 17% below 217/18, still 28% above the 5-year average Exports from the EU to fall 2% year over year to 23. U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.9, up 14% from 217/18, if realized

3 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 273, up 6% year over year Beginning stocks in Russia forecast at 9.22, down 15% from 217/18, still 4% above the 5-year average U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 259, 5% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 136 account for 52% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 74.1, down 3% year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 48.7, 36% below the 5-year average of U.S. farm gate average price forecast 8% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $4.6 to $5.6/bushel ($169-$26/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average

4 World Production and Use Production Use

5 Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

6 World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks Production Supply Total TRADE: Exports/Imports DEMAND Food & Seed Feed & Residual Use Total ENDING STOCKS:

7 World Beginning Stocks /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

8 Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio Percent /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks

9 3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China Percent /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks

10 World Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

11 World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) China, 136 Exporters, 74.1 Importers, 48.7

12 Global Ending Stocks and Price $US/MT /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price 1 5

13 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

14 Canada Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

15 Canada Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

16 Australia Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

17 Australia Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

18 Argentina Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

19 Argentina Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

20 EU-27 Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

21 EU-27 Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

22 Russia Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use

23 Russia Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

24 Black Sea Region Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.

25 Black Sea Exports /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan

26 Black Sea Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

27 U.S. Situation /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use

28 U.S. Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19

29 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

30 Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) /19 217/18

31 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average

32 2. Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date /19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report August 9, 218.

33 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/ Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.

34 World Wheat Imports /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )

35 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

36 U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class Million Acres /8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218

37 U.S. Hard Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

38 U.S. Hard Red Spring /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

39 U.S. Soft Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

40 U.S. White /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

41 U.S. Durum /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports

42 U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report August 9, 218.

43 18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19

44 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 76% 46% 37% 45% 67% 54%

45 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 31% 24% 34% 26% 56% 43%

46 U.S. FOB Gulf Prices $/Metric Ton Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW

47 U.S. FOB PNW Prices $/Metric Ton Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW

48 SRW and Soft White Prices $/Metric Ton Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18 SW SRW

49 U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 $/Metric Ton Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW

50 U.S. PNW Basis Prices 25 2 $/Metric Ton Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 HRS 14 HRW 12

51 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook

52 U.S. Wheat Area and Production Production () and Harvested Area (mh) MT/hectares 15 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.

53 U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison Million Hectares /97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19* Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218

54 World Wheat Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () Trade () /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade 1

55 World Corn Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () Trade () /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade

56 World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade 4 18 Production and Use () Trade () 5 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade

57 Ocean Freight Rates for Grains $/metric ton PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa

58 Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years EU wheat production to fall to 138, 9% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.1, 9% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 259, still 9% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in Russia to fall to 4.82, 35% below the 5-year average, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 25.4, down 15% from 217/18, if realized World consumption and trade expected to hit new records in 218/19 Algerian 218/19 wheat imports to fall to 7.2, down 12% year over year U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.9, 7% above the 5-year average, if realized