World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation October 2018
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1 World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation October 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released October 12, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
2 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates /19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 16 ; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in Australia to fall to 18.5, 26% below the 5-year average U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.3, 8% above 217/18, if realized 2. Consumption forecast at a record 746, 4% above the 5-year average Chinese domestic consumption expected to reach 122, 5% above the 5-year average U.S. domestic consumption to grow 6% year over year to World wheat trade projected at 18, 4% above the 5-year average Australian exports to drop to 13., 1% below 217/18, and the lowest level since 27/8 Exports from Russia to fall 15% year over year 35., still 28% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.9, up 14% from 217/18, if realized
3 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 275, up 7% year over year Beginning stocks in Argentina forecast at 1., down 42% the 5-year average U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 26, 5% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 136 account for 52% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 58.8, down 24% year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65.6, 15% below the 5-year average of U.S. farm gate average price forecast 8% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $4.8 to $5.4/bushel ($176-$198/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
4 World Production and Use Production Use
5 Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
6 World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks Production Supply Total TRADE: Exports/Imports DEMAND Food & Seed Feed & Residual Use Total ENDING STOCKS:
7 World Beginning Stocks /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
8 Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio Percent /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
9 3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China Percent /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks
10 World Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
11 World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) China, 136 Exporters, 58.4 Importers, 65.6
12 Global Ending Stocks and Price $US/MT /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price 1 5
13 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
14 Canada Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
15 Canada Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
16 Australia Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
17 Australia Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
18 Argentina Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
19 Argentina Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
20 European Union Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
21 EU-27 Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
22 Russia Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
23 Russia Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
24 Black Sea Region Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
25 Black Sea Exports /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
26 Black Sea Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
27 U.S. Situation /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
28 U.S. Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
29 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
30 Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) /19 217/18
31 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average
32 2. Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date /19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report October 11, 218.
33 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/ Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.
34 World Wheat Imports /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/19 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )
35 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
36 U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class Million Acres /8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 216/17 217/18 218/19* HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218
37 U.S. Hard Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
38 U.S. Hard Red Spring /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
39 U.S. Soft Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
40 U.S. White /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
41 U.S. Durum /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
42 U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report October 11, 218.
43 18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
44 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 76% 51% 37% 44% 67% 52%
45 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 31% 18% 33% 37% 56% 44%
46 U.S. FOB Gulf Prices $/Metric Ton Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
47 U.S. FOB PNW Prices $/Metric Ton Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
48 SRW and Soft White Prices $/Metric Ton Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 SW SRW
49 U.S. Gulf Basis Prices 2 15 $/Metric Ton Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
50 U.S. PNW Basis Prices 25 2 $/Metric Ton Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 HRS 14 HRW 12
51 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
52 U.S. Wheat Area and Production Production () and Harvested Area (mh) MT/hectares 15 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.
53 U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison Million Hectares /97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19* Wheat Corn Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218
54 World Wheat Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () Trade () /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade 1
55 World Corn Production, Use and Trade Production and Use () Trade () /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
56 World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade 4 18 Production and Use () Trade () 5 2 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Production Use Trade
57 Ocean Freight Rates for Grains $/metric ton PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
58 Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years Russian wheat production to fall to 7., 18% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.3, 8% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 26, still 9% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 1.1, 31% below the year prior, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 26., down 13% from 217/18, if realized World consumption expected to hit new record in 218/19; world trade to remain near record high Indonesian 218/19 wheat imports to remain stable at 1.5, still 15% above the 5- year average U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.9, 7% above the 5-year average, if realized
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