Drought in South America to Limit Soybean Exports

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FOP 2-09 ruary 2009 Drought in South America to Limit Soybean Exports Million Tons Annual Change from 2003/04 in Soybean Export Volume / / / / /2009 United States South America Over the past several months, dry weather in South America has severely curtailed soybean plantings and yields. The consequent fall in production is expected to limit exports and crush, and reduce carry-over into 2009/10. The lower South American supplies should help maintain US sales further into the year and drive export volume to near last season s record. Although US stocks remain tight, reduced demand by domestic crushers will free-up additional soybeans for export. Declining South American crop prospects have played a role in boosting soybean prices from late 2008 levels yet they remain well below last year s peak. Aside from exchange rate and energy price impacts, a greater supply of alternative feed ingredients, particularly rape and sun seed and feed grains, and slowing economic activity have removed some of the pressure on soybean demand and kept price rises in check. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 PRICES U.S. soybean export bids, FOB Gulf, in the first week in ruary averaged $386 per ton compared to $399 the same period in January. Export prices remain relatively strong spurred by demand in China and a significant crop shortfall in Argentina caused by drought. As of week-ending January 29, 2009, U.S. soybean sales commitments 200 (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 13.9 million tons, compared to 10.9 million tons a year ago while commitments to the world amounted to 24.4 million tons, slightly ahead of last year s 24.1 million. U.S. Gulf/FOB ($/Metric ton) Apr-07 U.S. Gulf Soybean Export Bids Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec TRADE CHANGES IN U.S. soybean exports are raised 1.4 million tons to 31.3 million in response to stronger demand from China and weaker export prospects by Argentina. Argentina s soybean exports are cut 1.7 million tons to 12.7 million with a smaller crop and reduced imports anticipated. Crush is lowered 1.9 million tons, with a significant reduction in soy meal export. Paraguay s soybean exports are down 1.6 million tons to 2.4 million due to a reduced crop prospects. Canada s rapeseed exports are up 0.4 million tons to 6.3 million in response to greater demand in China. EU s rapeseed imports are raised 0.2 million tons to 2.0 million supported by record large imports for the first 4 months in to the season. EU s soybean imports are cut 0.6 million tons to 13.6 million, and soy meal imports are down 0.3 million tons to 22.5 million in response to contraction in global supplies.

3 Table 01: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2004/ / /07 Jan Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Crush Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Cottonseed Oilseed, Palm Kernel Oilseed, Peanut Oilseed, Rapeseed Oilseed, Soybean Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

4 Table 02: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2004/ / /07 Jan Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Meal, Copra Meal, Cottonseed Meal, Fish Meal, Palm Kernel Meal, Peanut Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean Meal, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

5 Table 03: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Commodity View) Million Metric Tons 2004/ / /07 Jan Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Exports Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Ending Stocks Oil, Coconut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Oil, Palm Oil, Palm Kernel Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Oil, Sunflowerseed Total Totals may not add due to rounding

6 Table 04: Major Oilseeds: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2004/ / /07 Jan United States Brazil China, Peoples Republic Argentina India Other Total China, Peoples Republic EU Japan Mexico Taiwan Argentina Turkey Thailand Indonesia Korea, Republic of Other Total Exports United States Brazil Argentina Canada Ukraine Paraguay China, Peoples Republic Other Total Crush China, Peoples Republic United States EU Argentina Brazil India Russian Federation Indonesia Ukraine Canada Mexico Pakistan Japan Malaysia Turkey Other Total Ending Stocks Argentina Brazil United States China, Peoples Republic Canada Other Total Major Oilseeds includes Copra, Cottonseed, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybeans and Sunflowerseeds.

7 Table 05: Major Protein Meals: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2004/ / /07 Jan China, Peoples Republic United States Argentina EU Brazil Other Total EU Korea, Republic of Vietnam Indonesia Thailand United States Japan Other Total Exports Argentina Brazil United States India Indonesia Malaysia Canada Other Total EU China, Peoples Republic United States Brazil India Japan Mexico Thailand Korea, Republic of Indonesia Other Total SME EU China, Peoples Republic United States Brazil India Japan Mexico Other Total Ending Stocks Brazil Argentina EU United States Japan Other Total Major Protien Meals include Copra, Cottonseed, Fish, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflower Meal.

8 Table 06: Major Vegetable Oils: World Supply and Distribution (Country View) Million Metric Tons 2004/ / /07 Jan Indonesia Malaysia China, Peoples Republic EU United States Argentina India Other Total China, Peoples Republic EU India United States Pakistan Egypt Bangladesh Iran Malaysia Russian Federation Other Total Exports Indonesia Malaysia Argentina Brazil Ukraine Canada Philippines Other Total China, Peoples Republic EU India United States Indonesia Malaysia Brazil Pakistan Russian Federation Japan Mexico Turkey Egypt Bangladesh Argentina Other Total Ending Stocks Malaysia EU Indonesia United States China, Peoples Republic Other Total Major Vegetable Oils includes Coconut, Cottonseed, Olive, Palm, Palm Kernel, Peanut, Rapeseed, Soybean, and Sunflowerseed oil.

9 Table 07: Soybeans: World Supply and Distribution 2004/ / /07 Jan United States 85,019 83,507 87,001 72,859 80,536 80,536 Brazil 53,000 57,000 59,000 61,000 59,000 57,000 Argentina 39,000 40,500 48,800 46,200 49,500 43,800 China, Peoples Republic 17,400 16,350 15,967 14,000 16,800 16,800 India 5,850 7,000 7,690 9,300 9,700 10,000 Paraguay 4,040 3,640 6,200 6,800 5,600 4,000 Canada 3,042 3,161 3,460 2,700 3,300 3,300 Other 8,423 9,512 9,423 8,023 8,765 8,711 Total 215, , , , , ,147 China, Peoples Republic 25,802 28,317 28,726 37,816 36,000 36,000 EU-27 14,539 13,937 15,291 15,148 14,150 13,550 Japan 4,295 3,962 4,094 4,014 4,000 4,000 Mexico 3,640 3,667 3,844 3,650 3,585 3,400 Taiwan 2,256 2,498 2,436 2,149 2,350 2,350 Argentina ,986 2,954 2,535 1,900 Thailand 1,517 1,473 1,532 1,733 1,650 1,650 Indonesia 1,112 1,187 1,309 1,200 1,300 1,300 Korea, Republic of 1,240 1,190 1,231 1,231 1,260 1,260 Egypt ,325 1,100 1,200 1,130 Other 7,629 6,581 7,388 7,894 7,907 7,448 Total 63,484 64,172 69,162 78,889 75,937 73,988 Exports United States 29,860 25,579 30,386 31,598 29,937 31,298 Brazil 20,137 25,911 23,485 25,364 25,250 24,900 Argentina 9,568 7,249 9,559 13,830 14,400 12,700 Paraguay 2,888 2,315 4,500 5,080 4,000 2,400 Canada 1,124 1,318 1,683 1,775 1,830 1,830 Other 1,210 1,408 1,889 1,830 1,771 1,721 Total 64,787 63,780 71,502 79,477 77,188 74,849 Crush United States 46,160 47,324 49,198 49,024 45,858 44,906 China, Peoples Republic 30,362 34,500 35,970 39,518 41,474 41,104 Argentina 27,313 31,888 33,586 34,607 35,620 33,720 Brazil 29,344 28,285 31,109 31,838 31,500 31,200 EU-27 14,350 13,670 14,670 14,870 13,650 13,050 India 5,030 5,990 6,615 7,998 8,340 8,640 Mexico 3,729 3,823 3,900 3,700 3,700 3,515 Japan 3,149 2,820 2,925 2,890 2,840 2,840 Taiwan 2,013 2,190 2,161 1,927 2,075 2,075 Paraguay 979 1,220 1,550 1,610 1,550 1,550 Canada 1,545 1,497 1,524 1,383 1,430 1,430 Thailand 1,500 1,413 1,406 1,513 1,400 1,400 Iran 1,129 1,254 1,000 1,235 1,250 1,250 Egypt ,250 1,150 1,200 1,130 Bolivia 1,815 1,843 1,670 1,050 1,050 1,050 Other 6,610 6,705 7,364 7,368 7,770 7,361 Total 175, , , , , ,221 Ending Stocks Argentina 15,976 16,473 22,606 21,767 22,194 19,465 Brazil 16,658 16,641 18,190 19,178 18,450 17,122 United States 6,960 12,229 15,617 5,580 6,119 5,710 China, Peoples Republic 4,700 4,573 2,700 4,245 4,721 5,091 EU , Other 2,398 2,441 2,457 1,618 1,646 1,676 Total 47,449 53,090 62,688 53,207 53,939 49,873 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The United States, Mexico, and Thailand are on a September/Augus MY. Canada is on an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a March/ruary MY and Turkey is on an March/ruary MY.

10 Table 08: Soybean Meal: World Supply and Distribution 2004/ / /07 Jan United States 36,936 37,416 39,058 38,322 36,143 35,372 China, Peoples Republic 24,026 27,296 28,465 31,280 32,825 32,534 Argentina 21,601 25,012 26,061 27,070 27,855 26,370 Brazil 22,740 21,920 24,110 24,670 24,410 24,180 EU-27 11,300 10,760 11,550 11,715 10,750 10,277 India 4,015 4,782 5,280 6,385 6,658 6,900 Mexico 2,958 3,030 3,095 2,935 2,935 2,785 Other 15,423 15,653 16,540 15,962 16,455 15,960 Total 138, , , , , ,378 EU-27 21,910 22,829 22,213 24,072 22,800 22,500 Vietnam 1,152 1,722 2,273 2,400 2,550 2,550 Indonesia 1,849 2,071 2,237 2,429 2,450 2,450 Thailand 1,779 2,052 2,275 1,917 2,200 2,100 Korea, Republic of 1,462 1,773 1,870 1,760 1,850 1,850 Japan 1,503 1,601 1,737 1,747 1,760 1,760 Canada 1,160 1,353 1,453 1,510 1,510 1,510 Mexico 1,251 1,728 1,780 1,475 1,600 1,500 Philippines 1,377 1,374 1,357 1,450 1,500 1,415 Malaysia ,035 1,010 Other 11,805 13,919 14,397 15,070 15,743 14,893 Total 45,925 51,201 52,491 54,760 54,998 53,538 Exports Argentina 20,650 24,197 25,625 26,797 27,370 25,885 Brazil 14,256 12,895 12,715 12,138 12,400 12,400 United States 6,659 7,301 7,987 8,419 7,620 7,620 India 1,794 3,679 3,461 4,790 4,800 5,050 Paraguay ,128 1,112 1,080 1,080 Other 3,210 3,015 3,358 2,433 2,344 2,324 Total 47,213 51,884 54,274 55,689 55,614 54,359 EU-27 32,680 32,875 33,228 35,169 33,315 32,842 China, Peoples Republic 23,437 27,776 27,630 30,849 32,425 32,184 United States 30,446 30,114 31,184 30,078 28,668 27,896 Brazil 8,960 9,328 11,118 12,030 12,490 12,360 Mexico 4,208 4,751 4,871 4,400 4,525 4,275 Japan 3,978 3,846 3,992 4,007 3,976 3,976 Thailand 2,985 3,196 3,352 3,215 3,310 3,210 Korea, Republic of 2,196 2,381 2,661 2,515 2,586 2,586 Vietnam 1,152 1,722 2,273 2,400 2,550 2,550 Canada 2,318 2,400 2,479 2,500 2,483 2,483 Indonesia 1,839 2,085 2,236 2,419 2,443 2,443 Iran 1,113 1,504 1,612 1,873 1,894 1,864 India 1,426 1,525 1,852 1,920 1,843 1,843 Taiwan 1,705 1,800 1,750 1,519 1,640 1,640 Philippines 1,407 1,500 1,503 1,534 1,585 1,500 Other 16,906 18,727 20,454 21,081 22,211 20,842 Total 136, , , , , ,494 Ending Stocks Brazil 1,577 1,469 1,913 2,588 2,263 2,163 Argentina 1,423 1,672 1,517 1,170 1,008 1,008 EU , United States Korea, Republic of Other 2,241 1,527 1, Total 6,444 6,100 6,281 6,182 5,653 5,245 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). The Mexico and Thailand are on a September/August MY. Canada i an August/July MY. Paraguay is on a March/ruary MY. Vietnam and the Philippines are on a January/December MY and Bolivia is on March/ruary MY.

11 Table 09: Soybean Oil: World Supply and Distribution 2004/ / /07 Jan United States 8,782 9,248 9,294 9,329 8,713 8,532 China, Peoples Republic 5,421 6,149 6,410 7,045 7,405 7,337 Argentina 5,128 5,998 6,424 6,627 6,811 6,446 Brazil 5,630 5,430 5,970 6,110 6,040 5,984 EU-27 2,575 2,460 2,640 2,667 2,456 2,348 India 900 1,070 1,180 1,426 1,490 1,540 Mexico Other 3,533 3,593 3,784 3,657 3,757 3,661 Total 32,604 34,605 36,387 37,511 37,317 36,463 China, Peoples Republic 1,728 1,516 2,404 2,727 2,370 2,370 EU , India 2,026 1,727 1, Iran Morocco Venezuela Korea, Republic of Peru Algeria Bangladesh Other 2,632 2,669 2,520 3,212 3,006 2,802 Total 8,907 9,008 9,821 10,392 9,433 8,932 Exports Argentina 4,757 5,597 5,970 5,766 5,650 5,300 Brazil 2,414 2,466 2,462 2,388 2,140 2,140 United States , Paraguay EU Bolivia China, Peoples Republic Other Total 9,116 9,829 10,570 10,825 9,771 9,287 China, Peoples Republic 7,203 7,607 8,670 9,693 9,575 9,477 United States 7,911 8,147 8,426 8,313 8,096 7,984 Brazil 3,130 3,133 3,510 3,802 3,962 3,976 EU-27 2,210 2,915 3,368 3,377 2,863 2,863 India 2,627 2,938 2,598 2,269 2,130 2,130 Argentina ,146 1,146 Mexico Iran Japan Egypt Korea, Republic of Morocco Taiwan Venezuela Bangladesh Other 3,929 4,063 4,152 4,314 4,460 4,207 Total 31,697 33,507 35,785 37,486 37,180 36,517 Ending Stocks United States 771 1,365 1,399 1, ,017 China, Peoples Republic Argentina Brazil EU Other Total 3,101 3,378 3,231 2,823 2,547 2,414 Most countries are on an October/September Marketing Year (MY). Mexico is on a September/August MY. Peru is on an January/December MY and Paraguay and Bolivia are on a March/ruary MY.

12 Table 10: Soybeans and Products: World Trade Meal, Soybean Oil, Soybean Oilseed, Soybean Marketing Year 2006/ / /07 Exports North America , ,683 1,775 33,128 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,683 1,775 1,830 United States (Sep-Aug) 7,987 8,419 7, , ,386 31,598 31,298 South America 40, ,135 8, ,845 38,445 5,159 40,938 Argentina (Oct-Sep) 25,625 26,797 25,885 5,970 5,766 5,300 9,559 13,830 12,700 Brazil (Oct-Sep) 12,715 12,138 12,400 2,462 2,388 2,140 23,485 25,364 24,900 Paraguay (Mar-) 1,128 1,112 1, ,500 5,080 2,400 South Asia 0 0 5, India (Oct-Sep) 3,461 4,790 5, Other 13,345 55,541 1,395 1,619 10, ,374 72, World Total 54,274 55,689 54,359 10,570 10,825 9,287 71,502 79,477 74,849 European Union , ,550 East Asia , ,880 36,529 45,250 43,655 China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) ,404 2,727 2,370 28,726 37,816 36,000 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,737 1,747 1, ,094 4,014 4,000 Korea, Republic of (Oct-Sep) 1,870 1,760 1, ,231 1,231 1,260 Taiwan (Oct-Sep) ,436 2,149 2,350 Southeast Asia 9,060 2,449 9, ,545 3,623 3,730 Indonesia (Oct-Sep) 2,237 2,429 2, ,309 1,200 1,300 Malaysia (Oct-Sep) , Philippines (Jan-Dec) 1,357 1,450 1, Thailand (Sep-Aug) 2,275 1,917 2, ,532 1,733 1,650 Vietnam (Jan-Dec) 2,273 2,400 2, North America , ,995 Canada (Aug-Jul) 1,453 1,510 1, Mexico (Sep-Aug) 1,780 1,475 1, ,844 3,650 3,400 South America 3,861 1,770 4, ,075 2, ,769 Brazil (Oct-Sep) Colombia (Oct-Sep) Central America Caribbean Middle East , ,268 1,277 3,330 Iran (Oct-Sep) ,036 1,050 Israel (Oct-Sep) Syria (Jan-Dec) Turkey (Nov-Oct) ,268 1,277 1,050 North Africa 1, , ,030 1,769 1,500 1,530 Egypt (Oct-Sep) ,325 1,100 1,130 Other 36,421 48,161 3,886 6,927 8,821 1,588 22,876 26, World Total 52,491 54,760 53,538 9,821 10,392 8,932 69,162 78,889 73,988

13 Table 11: Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution 2004/ / /07 Jan Indonesia 13,560 15,560 16,600 18,300 19,700 19,700 Malaysia 15,194 15,485 15,290 17,567 17,700 17,700 Thailand ,170 1,050 1,400 1,400 Nigeria Colombia Other 2,518 2,661 2,708 2,738 2,768 2,768 Total 33,529 35,980 37,348 41,305 43,188 43,188 China, Peoples Republic 4,363 4,975 5,139 5,223 5,700 5,700 India 3,525 2,899 3,800 4,532 4,900 4,800 EU-27 4,028 4,272 4,347 4,000 3,950 3,950 Pakistan 1,565 1,703 2,218 2,420 2,500 2,500 United States ,090 1,090 Bangladesh ,000 1,070 1,070 Egypt Vietnam Russian Federation Japan Other 7,452 8,811 7,968 9,094 9,326 9,326 Total 23,939 26,255 27,371 29,786 31,211 31,111 Exports Indonesia 9,631 11,696 11,450 13,505 14,600 14,600 Malaysia 12,684 12,931 12,900 14,217 14,260 14,260 Thailand Papua New Guinea Jordan Other 1,495 1,443 1,628 1,613 1,571 1,571 Total 24,551 26,870 26,901 30,398 31,636 31,636 China, Peoples Republic 4,363 4,975 5,139 5,223 5,700 5,700 Indonesia 4,015 4,361 4,641 4,801 4,950 4,950 India 3,406 3,125 3,769 4,612 4,925 4,825 EU-27 3,916 4,151 4,256 3,860 3,780 3,780 Malaysia 2,659 2,926 3,171 3,225 3,601 3,601 Pakistan 1,560 1,708 2,218 2,420 2,500 2,500 Bangladesh ,015 1,085 1,085 United States ,065 1,065 Nigeria 985 1,005 1,010 1,020 1,020 1,020 Thailand Egypt Russian Federation Vietnam Japan Iran Colombia Turkey Burma, Union of Mexico South Africa, Republic of Other 5,779 6,633 6,650 7,046 7,416 7,416 Total 32,483 35,344 37,751 40,193 42,221 42,121 Ending Stocks Malaysia 1,507 1,881 1,400 1,975 2,214 2,214 Indonesia 1, ,127 1,141 1,311 1,311 Thailand EU Egypt Other Total 3,546 3,567 3,634 4,134 4,665 4,676

14 Table 11: Palm Oil: World Supply and Distribution (Continued) 2004/ / /07 Jan Most countries are based on a October/September Marketing Year (MY). EU-25, Philippines, and Thailand are on an January/December and Turkey is on a November/October MY.

15 Table 12: Rapeseed and Products: World Supply and Distribution Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed Marketing Year 2006/ / /07 China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) 7,205 6,856 7,763 4,067 3,870 4,384 10,966 10,573 11,500 India (Oct-Sep) 3,410 3,150 3,300 2,135 1,968 2,085 5,800 5,450 6,580 Canada (Aug-Jul) 2,108 2,465 2,700 1,440 1,675 1,830 9,000 9,528 12,600 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,255 1,275 1, EU-27 (Jul-Jun) 9,050 10,500 11,395 6,520 7,575 8,223 16,092 18,412 19,085 Other 2,979 3,454 4,099 1,977 2,320 2,743 3,304 4,462 7,064 World Total 26,007 27,700 30,591 17,029 18,310 20,210 45,163 48,426 56,830 China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) ,450 India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) Japan (Oct-Sep) ,165 2,257 2,350 EU-27 (Jul-Jun) ,050 Other 2,539 3,083 3, ,319 1,475 3,227 3,544 4,324 World Total 3,039 3,523 3,608 2,201 1,945 2,015 7,019 7,494 10,344 Exports China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) 910 1, Canada (Aug-Jul) 1,482 1,845 2,000 1,265 1,285 1,450 5,450 5,767 6,300 Japan (Oct-Sep) EU-27 (Jul-Jun) Other ,104 2,028 4,043 World Total 2,903 3,727 3,739 1,943 1,901 2,188 6,635 8,196 10,748 China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) 7,479 7,069 7,913 4,343 4,139 4,644 11,926 11,377 12,949 India (Oct-Sep) 2,800 2,062 2,500 2,133 1,967 2,084 6,449 5,866 6,196 Canada (Aug-Jul) ,966 4,347 5,050 Japan (Oct-Sep) 1,330 1,307 1, ,215 2,250 2,355 EU-27 (Jul-Jun) 9,100 10,410 11,270 7,198 7,774 8,217 16,608 19,128 20,684 Other 5,130 6,014 6,686 2,505 3,166 3,636 5,230 6,027 7,126 World Total 26,365 27,534 30,414 17,450 18,352 19,936 46,394 48,995 54,360 Ending Stocks China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Canada (Aug-Jul) ,809 1,400 2,800 Japan (Oct-Sep) EU-27 (Jul-Jun) ,441 1,015 1,066 Other World Total ,659 3,388 5,454 2/10/2009 9:11:54 AM

16 Table 13: Sunflowerseed and Products World Supply and Distribution Oilseed, Sunflowerseed Meal, Sunflowerseed Oil, Sunflowerseed Marketing Year 2006/ / /07 Argentina (Mar-) 3,500 4,650 3,000 1,285 1,865 1,545 1,202 1,800 1,500 Russian Federation (Sep-Aug) 6,750 5,650 7,350 2,220 1,917 2,265 2,465 2,130 2,520 Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 5,300 4,200 6,500 2,025 1,700 2,336 2,050 1,726 2,369 EU-27 (Oct-Sep) 6,502 4,788 6,750 3,000 2,445 3,130 2,200 1,773 2,270 Other 6,910 7,225 8,291 2,520 2,298 2,662 2,166 1,982 2,312 World Total 29,812 27,213 32,741 11,522 10,708 12,429 10,608 9,955 11,524 Argentina (Mar-) Russian Federation (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) EU-27 (Oct-Sep) ,774 1,552 1,650 1, ,370 Other ,127 1,024 1,481 1,882 1,044 1,798 World Total 1,742 1,190 1,742 3,334 2,813 3,581 3,349 2,506 3,633 Exports Argentina (Mar-) , ,400 1,100 Russian Federation (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) ,483 1,273 1,690 1,867 1,325 1,700 EU-27 (Oct-Sep) Other World Total 1,881 1,425 1,933 3,453 3,409 3,772 3,926 3,538 3,958 Argentina (Mar-) 3,083 4,426 3, Russian Federation (Sep-Aug) 6,530 5,648 6,776 1,370 1,301 1,450 1,854 1,885 1,923 Turkey (Sep-Aug) 1,249 1,277 1, Ukraine (Sep-Aug) 4,903 4,133 5, EU-27 (Oct-Sep) 6,355 4,990 6,396 4,648 3,961 4,595 3,287 2,825 3,350 Other 7,287 6,793 7,816 3,445 3,157 3,984 3,703 2,725 3,788 World Total 29,407 27,267 31,638 11,439 10,138 12,152 10,303 8,970 10,792 Ending Stocks Argentina (Mar-) 1,657 1,861 1, Russian Federation (Sep-Aug) Turkey (Sep-Aug) Ukraine (Sep-Aug) EU-27 (Oct-Sep) Other World Total 3,093 2,804 3,

17 Table 14: Minor Vegetable Oil Supply and Distribution Oil, Peanut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Marketing Year 2006/ / /07 China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) 2,007 2,020 2,165 1,525 1,595 1,565 India (Oct-Sep) 1,315 1,625 1, ,088 1,030 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) EU-27 (Oct-Sep) ,210 2,170 2,250 Other 1,081 1,078 1,151 1,737 1,685 1, World Total 4,495 4,816 5,159 4,855 5,006 4,719 2,907 2,839 2,968 China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) EU-27 (Oct-Sep) Other World Total Exports China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) EU-27 (Oct-Sep) Other World Total China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) 2,007 2,016 2,161 1,523 1,591 1,562 India (Oct-Sep) 1,370 1,570 1, ,110 1,038 Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) EU-27 (Oct-Sep) ,030 2,060 2,070 Other ,016 1,746 1,725 1, World Total 4,594 4,787 5,121 4,794 4,964 4,758 2,876 2,918 2,945 Ending Stocks China, Peoples Republic of (Oct-Sep) India (Oct-Sep) Turkey (Nov-Oct) United States (Aug-Jul) EU-27 (Oct-Sep) Other World Total ,

18 Table 14: Minor Vegetable Oil Supply and Distribution (Continued) Oil, Peanut Oil, Cottonseed Oil, Olive Marketing Year 2006/ / /07 Turkey's Cottonseed Oil Marketing Year (MY) is October/September. China and India are not included in the Olive Oil database. The EU-25's Oilve Oil MY is November/October and the U.S. MY for Oilve Oil is October/September.

19 Table 15: World Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Million Metric Tons Area Beginning Harvested Stocks Total Supply Exports Food Use Domestic Dom. Cons. Consumpti Ending Stocks Major Oilseeds 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Major Protien Meals 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Major Vegetable Oils 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Based on the aggregate of different marketing years

20 Table 16: World: Soybeans and Products Supply and Distribution Million Metric Tons Area Beginning Harvested Stocks Total Supply Exports Crush Domestic Consumpti Ending Stocks Oilseed, Soybean 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Meal, Soybean 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Oil, Soybean 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Based on the aggregate of different marketing years, primarily Ocober through September.

21 Table 17: World: Rapeseed and Products Supply and Distribution Million Metric Tons Area Beginning Harvested Stocks Total Supply Exports Food Use Domestic Dom. Cons. Consumpti Ending Stocks Oilseed, Rapeseed 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Meal, Rapeseed 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Oil, Rapeseed 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Based on the aggregate of different marketing years.

22 Table 18: World: Sunflower and Products Supply and Distribution Million Metric Tons Area Beginning Harvested Stocks Exports Domestic Consumpti Ending Stocks Oilseed, Sunflowerseed 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Meal, Sunflowerseed 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Oil, Sunflowerseed 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Based on the aggregate of different marketing years, primarily September through August.

23 Table 19: World: Palm Oil, Coconut Oil, and Fish Meal Supply and Distribution Million Metric Tons Beginning Stocks Total Supply Exports Industrial Food Use Domestic Dom. Cons. Dom. Cons. Consumpti Ending Stocks Oil, Palm 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Oil, Coconut 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Meal, Fish 1995/ / / / / / / / / / / / Based on the aggregate of different marketing years.

24 Table 20: United States Oilseeds and Products Supply and Distribution Local Marketing Year Area Beginning Harvested Stocks Total Supply Exports Crush Domestic Consumpti Ending Stocks Major Oilseeds 1995/96 33,536 10,273 69, ,765 23,872 42,571 49,842 6, /97 32,555 6,051 74, ,400 24,745 44,134 52,001 4, /98 35,351 4,654 83, ,419 24,519 48,887 57,455 6, /99 35,275 6,445 84, ,493 22,721 47,813 57,992 10, /00 37,149 10,780 82, ,854 27,395 47,905 57,474 8, /01 36,805 8,985 84, ,693 27,976 49,189 58,898 7, /02 37,323 7,819 89, ,304 29,965 50,631 61,466 6, /03 36,284 6,873 83, ,358 29,433 47,505 56,090 5, /04 36,041 5,835 76, ,943 25,159 45,539 53,632 4, /05 36,808 4,152 95, ,777 30,708 50,167 61,780 8, /06 36,587 8,289 95, ,623 26,611 51,897 63,811 14, /07 36,962 14,201 96,843 1, ,077 31,647 53,483 63,407 17,023 31,970 17,023 82,453 1, ,741 33,115 53,425 60,717 6,909 35,314 6,909 89,098 1,287 97,294 32,415 49,198 57,573 7,306 Major Protien Meals 1995/ ,294 1,048 33,604 5,765 42,571 27, / ,772 1,025 35,049 6,705 44,134 28, / ,422 1,355 39,006 8,958 48,887 29, / ,747 1,206 38,252 7,234 47,813 30, / ,728 1,224 38,285 7,138 47,905 30, / ,256 1,166 39,719 7,605 49,189 31, / ,905 1,059 40,360 7,521 50,631 32, / ,595 1,194 38,075 5,924 47,505 31, / ,211 1,835 37,292 4,944 45,539 32, / ,262 1,529 41,065 6,954 50,167 33, / ,944 1,653 41,812 7,608 51,897 33, / ,509 1,699 43,569 8,263 53,483 34, ,859 1,987 43,235 8,760 53,425 34, ,874 2,154 40,363 7,952 49,198 32, Major Vegetable Oils 1995/ ,169 1,279 10, ,571 8,059 1, /97 0 1,151 8,333 1,553 11,037 1,516 44,134 8, / ,505 1,644 12,092 2,044 48,887 9, / ,390 1,436 11,810 1,634 47,813 9, / ,394 1,527 11,920 1,126 47,905 9,577 1, /01 0 1,217 9,533 1,683 12,433 1,047 49,189 9,746 1, /02 0 1,640 9,663 1,627 12,930 1,549 50,631 10,076 1, /03 0 1,305 9,184 1,536 12,025 1,237 47,505 9, / ,764 1,911 11, ,539 10, / ,754 1,841 12, ,167 10,457 1, /06 0 1,094 10,383 2,378 13, ,897 11,139 1, /07 0 1,818 10,405 2,526 14,749 1,333 53,483 11,663 1, ,753 10,517 3,109 15,379 1,678 53,425 12,214 1, ,487 9,738 3,356 14, ,198 12,254 1,345 Based on the aggregate of different marketing years