World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation December 2018
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1 World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation December 218 Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released December 11, 218. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
2 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 1.218/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years Global supplies estimate to fall to 113 MMT; down 1% from the 217/18 record Wheat production in Australia to fall to 17. MMT, 32% below the 5-year average U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.3 MMT, 8% above 217/18 2.Consumption forecast at a record 744 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average Australian feed wheat consumption expected to reach 5.5 MMT, 44% above the 5-year average U.S. domestic consumption to grow 7% year over year to 31.3 MMT 3.World wheat trade projected at 177 MMT, 2% above the 5-year average Australian exports to drop to 1.5 MMT, 4% below the 5-year average, and the lowest level since 27/8 Exports from Russia to fall 15% year over year to 36.5 MMT, still 34% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to increase to 27.2 MMT, up 11% from 217/18, if realized Supply and Demand
3 Highlights of USDA s 218/19 Supply and Demand Estimates 4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 28 MMT, up 7% year over year Beginning stocks in Russia forecast at 11.9 MMT, 81% above the 5-year average, and the highest level since 211/12 U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9 MMT, 7% below 217/18 levels 5. Global ending stocks projected at 268 MMT, 4% below the record 217/18 level, if realized Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 143 MMT account for 53% of global ending stocks Exporter ending stocks forecast at 59.3 MMT, down 24% year over year Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65.3 MMT, 1% below the 5-year average of 72.4 MMT 6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 9% higher in 218/19 Projected average range: $5.5 to $5.25/bushel ($186-$193/MT)* *Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average Supply and Demand
4 World Production and Use Production Use Supply and Demand
5 Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* Beginning Stocks Production *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan Supply and Demand
6 World Wheat Supply and Demand 16/17 17/18 18/19 MMT SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks Production Supply Total TRADE: Exports/Imports DEMAND Food & Seed Feed & Residual Use Total ENDING STOCKS: Supply and Demand
7 World Beginning Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Supply and Demand Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
8 Percent Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks Supply and Demand
9 Percent 3. Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China /5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 *Ending stocks Supply and Demand
10 World Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. Supply and Demand
11 World Ending Stocks by Position (million metric tons) Exporters, 59.3 China, 144 Importers, 65.3 Supply and Demand
12 $US/MT Global Ending Stocks and Price /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 18/ Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price Supply and Demand
13 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
14 Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Argentina Australia Canada EU-25 Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine U.S
15 45. Canada Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
16 12. Canada Ending Stocks /9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
17 45. Australia Situation /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
18 Australia Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
19 Argentina Situation /7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
20 Argentina Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18.5
21 European Union Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
22 EU-27 Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
23 Russia Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
24 2 Russia Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
25 Black Sea Region Situation /8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
26 8 Black Sea Exports /9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
27 3 Black Sea Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
28 U.S. Situation / 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
29 U.S. Ending Stocks /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
30 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
31 Major World Wheat Importers (from all origins) /19 217/18
32 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average
33 2.5 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat Year-to-date /19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report December 11, 218.
34 Top 1 Customers for U.S. Wheat 217/18 vs. 216/ Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia 217/18 216/17 Source: USDA FAS 217/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 218.
35 2 World Wheat Imports /89 92/93 96/97 /1 4/5 8/9 12/13 16/17 "Other" China FSU EU-28 Trend in other importers denoted ( )
36 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
37 Million Acres U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class HRW SRW White Durum HRS *Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 218
38 U.S. Hard Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
39 U.S. Hard Red Spring /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
40 U.S. Soft Red Winter /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
41 U.S. White /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
42 U.S. Durum /14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
43 U.S. Wheat Sales by Class (year-to-date) HRW HRS White SRW Durum 218/19 217/18 Source: USDA FAS export sales report November 29, 218.
44 18 U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class HRW HRS SRW White Durum 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
45 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand HRW HRS SRW 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 76% 52% 37% 44% 67% 51%
46 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand White Durum Total 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 MMT Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply Total Domestic Use Exports Use Total Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use 31% 16% 33% 38% 56% 45%
47 $/Metric Ton 4 U.S. FOB Gulf Prices Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
48 $/Metric Ton U.S. FOB PNW Prices Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
49 $/Metric Ton SRW and Soft White Prices Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 SW SRW
50 $/Metric Ton U.S. Gulf Basis Prices Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
51 $/Metric Ton 25 U.S. PNW Basis Prices Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 HRS 14 HRW 12
52 Major Exporters Import Demand U.S. Situation by Class Outlook
53 Production (MMT) and Harvested Area (mh) MT/hectares 75 U.S. Wheat Area and Production /99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 Harvested Area Production Yield 2.
54 Million Acres 11 U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans *Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 218
55 Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) World Wheat Production, Use and Trade /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade 1
56 Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) World Corn Production, Use and Trade /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade
57 Production and Use (MMT) Trade (MMT) World Soybeans Production, Use and Trade /8 9/1 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 Production Use Trade
58 $/metric ton Ocean Freight Rates for Grains /18/16 5/18/17 11/18/17 5/18/18 11/18/18 PNW to Japan Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to Middle East Gulf to West Africa
59 Summary Global production to fall for first time in 5 years Australian wheat production to fall to 17. MMT, 2% below 217/18 Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.3 MMT, 8% below the 5-year average Global ending stocks to decline to 268 MMT, still 11% above the 5-year average Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 11.2 MMT, 11% below the year prior, if realized U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 26.5 MMT, down 13% from 217/18, if realized World consumption expected to hit new record in 218/19; world trade to remain near record high Egyptian 218/19 imports estimated at 12.5 MMT, 1% above the 5-year average U.S. 218/19 exports to total 27.2 MMT, up 11% year over year, if realized
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