Rudi Swanepoel. Fax:

Transcription

1 Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Month Close Change Last Change CME Corn May' /4 21/ /4 CME Corn Jul' / /4 21/4 CME Corn Sep' /4 5671/2 1/2 CME Corn Dec' CME Corn Mar' /4 5551/4 11/4 CME Corn May' /4 0 0 CME Corn Jul' /4 1/2 0 0 Gold 07: Rand/Pound 07: Brent Crude 07: Rand/Euro 07: Rand/Dollar 07: Dollar/Euro 07: Net LAES SPO PRICES Overnight Market Net Rudi Swanepoel el: Fax: rudi@farmwise.co.za US CORN RECAP Morning Agricultural Market Report CME CORN FUURES MARKE RECAP May corn traded higher on the day but saw a modest amount of profit taking at the closing bell while the December contract finished in negative territory following yesterday's slightly supportive USDA report. ight cash markets and firm interior basis levels helped to support the move but basis weakened at some ethanol plants across the US on stable inventories. Bull spreads in old vs. new crop contracts were extremely active throughout the day as traders weigh old crop supply tightness against expectations for a large 2013/14 crop. he huge corn crop from Ontario might weigh on cash markets in the east as many expect up to 1 million tonnes of corn to be imported by ethanol and feed companies this crop year. his would be the second largest Canadian corn export program on record, only to be outdone by 1.7 million tonnes 2 years ago. he import program would be equivalent to near 40 million bushels of corn while the USDA is estimating imports of 125 million. Additional imports are expected from Argentina over the coming months. Weekly QCN3 Cndl, QCN3, rade 2013/04/14, /4, /4, /4, /4 SMA, QCN3, rade (Last), /04/14, /2+ SMA, QCN3, rade (Last), /04/14, /4+ CME JULY'13 CORN - WEEKLY SNAPSHO 12 April /02/ /05/26 (CHG) US CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M/Bu) Apr Apr Mar Apr (M Acres) USDA USDA USDA USDA Planting Acres Harvested Acres Yield (Bu/ Acre) Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports otal Supply Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q FUNDAMENAL CHARS /8 Feed/Residual Food/Seed & Industry Ethanol otal Domestic Exports otal Usage Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 7.9% 5.6% 6.8%

2 Commodity Option Future Main Board Net Volatility Month Close Change (%) SAFEX WMAZ FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Maize Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA No.3 Yellow Corn Gulf US No.3 Corn Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Month May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 July'14 SAFEX WMAZ Apr' R 10 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX WMAZ May' R 10 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX WMAZ Jul' R 10 Parity Change Up/Down R 1 R -0 R 16 R 20 R 20 R 19 SAFEX WMAZ Sep' R 10 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour n/a 877 SAFEX WMAZ Dec' R 10 YMAZ Export Parity Randfontein (basis USA Corn) SAFEX WMAZ Jul' R 10 Month SAFEX YMAZ FUURES (Previous Close) May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 July'14 SAFEX YMAZ Apr' R 10 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX YMAZ May' R 10 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX YMAZ Jul' R 10 Parity Change Up/Down R 1 R -0 R 16 R 19 R 20 R 19 SAFEX YMAZ Sep' R 10 SAFEX Below Export Parity n/a -71 SAFEX YMAZ Dec' R 10 YMAZ FOB Comparison R/ton SAFEX YMAZ Jul' R 10 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 July'14 RSA MAIZE SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION ('000 tons) USA Corn FOB, New Orleans, Louisiana RSA YMAZ FOB, Durban Harbour Brazil Port FOB, Corn, weekly prices Argentina Port FOB, Corn, weekly prices Black Sea FOB, Corn, weekly prices Latest SAGIS Figures MAIZE EXPORS - Progressive 2012/13 Season WEEKLY PRODUCER DELIVERIES ('000) Exported from Destined for 1Mar'13 - Plus Outstanding otal Commodity Less CEC RSA: Africa Overseas 28Feb'14 Retentions Crop WMAZ WMAZ YMAZ YMAZ otal otal PARIY GRAPH

3 Commodity CME SOYBEAN FUURES CME Soybeans May' / CME Soybeans Jul' /4 3/ /4 CME Soybeans Aug' CME Soybeans Sep' /4-91/ /4 CME Soybeans Nov' /4-103/ /2 23/4 CME Soybeans Jan' / /2-11/2 CME SOY MEAL FUURES CME Soy Meal May' CME Soy Meal Jul' CME Soy Meal Aug' CME Soy Meal Sep' CME Soy Meal Oct' CME Soy Meal Dec' CME SOYBEAN OIL FUURES CME Soybean Oil May' CME Soybean Oil Jul' CME Soybean Oil Aug' CME Soybean Oil Sep' CME Soybean Oil Oct' CME Soybean Oil Dec' US SOYBEAN SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M Acres) Planting Acres Harvested Acres Yield (Bu/ Acre) Future Month Main Board Close Net Change Overnight Market Last Net Change Apr Apr Mar Apr USDA USDA USDA USDA US SOY RECAP CME SOY FUURES MARKE RECAP May soybeans finished higher on the day while the November contract saw double digit losses and finished on the lows of the session. ight supply pipelines in the US and concerns that a port strike in Brazil might delay soybean shipments helped to support the move higher. he July/November and May/November calendar spreads exploded to the upside today as traders weigh tight old crop supplies against hefty supplies in South America. he impact on consumer demand in China from the Bird Flu continues to add a modest amount of resistance to rallies in the old crop soybean contracts. Export sales were supportive to market direction today with net weekly sales coming in at 319,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 64,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 383,700. Cumulative sales as of April 4th came in at 99% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year vs. a 5 year average of 90%. Sales of 19,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Weekly QSK3 Cndl, QSK3, rade 2013/04/14, /4, /4, /4, 1407 SMA, QSK3, rade (Last), /04/14, /2+ SMA, QSK3, rade (Last), /04/14, /4+ CME MAY'13 SOYBEAN - WEEKLY SNAPSHO FUNDAMENAL CHARS 2011/02/ /05/26 (CHG) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q /8 Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports Supply, otal Crushing Exports Seed/Residual Use, otal Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 5.4% 4.1% 4.1%

4 Commodity Future Main Board Net Option Volatility Month Close Change (%) SAFEX SUNFLOWER FUURES (Previous Close) South African Soy and Sunflower Recap oday's Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA SOYBEANS Opening USA SOYBEANS Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Call Month May'13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Nov'13 Jan'14 SAFEX SUNS Apr' R 30 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX SUNS May' R 30 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX SUNS Jul' R 30 Parity Change Up/Down R 79 R 60 R 23 R 15 R 37 R 45 SAFEX SUNS Sep' R 30 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour SAFEX SOYA FUURES (Previous Close) USA SOYBEANS Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein SAFEX SOYA Apr' R 30 Month SAFEX SOYA May' R 30 May'13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Nov'13 Jan'14 SAFEX SOYA Jul' R 30 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX SOYA Sep' R 30 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Latest SAGIS - MONHLY PRODUCER DELIVERIES Parity Change Up/Down R 79 R 60 R 23 R 15 R 37 R 45 PROG. JAN DEC 2013 (tons) SAFEX Below Randfontein Commodity Farm Out- SOYBEANS Export Parity Durban Harbour Less CEC Retentions Deliveries standing Month SOYA May'13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Nov'13 Jan'14 SUNS R/ton (Current 07:00am) RSA SOYA AND SUNFLOWER SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Parity Change Up/Down R 71 R 54 R 21 R 13 R 33 R 39 SAFEX Below Export Parity PARIY GRAPH

5 Commodity Future Month Main Board Close Net Change CME WHEA FUURES CME Wheat May' / /4 61/2 CME Wheat Jul' /4 1/4 7091/2 61/4 CME Wheat Sep' /2-21/4 7141/2 5 CME Wheat Dec' /4-21/ /4 CME Wheat Mar' /4-21/2 7411/2 33/4 CME Wheat May' /2-23/4 0 0 KCB WHEA FUURES Overnight Market Last Net Change KCB Wheat May' /4 83/4 7423/4 4 KCB Wheat Jul' /2 81/ /2 KCB Wheat Sep' /4 71/ /4 KCB Wheat Dec' /4 7781/2 41/2 KCB Wheat Mar' /4 53/4 7863/4 0 KCB Wheat May' /4 0 0 US WHEA SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M/Bu) Apr Apr Mar Apr (M Acres) USDA USDA USDA USDA Planting Acres Harvested Acres US WHEA RECAP CME WHEA FUURES MARKE RECAP Chicago and KC wheat traded higher on the day with Kansas City leading the way to the upside after freezing temperatures stretched across areas of the western plains for the second day in a row. Net weekly export sales came in at 263,500 tonnes for the current marketing year, up from 141,200 the week prior. Kansas City sales were reported at 148,200 tonnes and Chicago wheat sales at 129,300 tonnes. here were also 76,000 tonnes reported for the next marketing year for a total of 339,500. As of April 4th, cumulative sales stand at 92% of the USDA forecast for the current marketing year vs. a 5 year average of 93%. Sales of 266,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, about unchanged from the week prior. he USDA also announced that 360,000 tonnes of Chicago wheat were sold to China for the 2013/14 crop year. his sale has been rumored for over a week now and many believe another ,000 tonnes have yet to be announced. Weekly QZWK3 Cndl, QZWK3, rade 2013/04/14, 700, 716, 688, 703 SMA, QZWK3, rade (Last), /04/14, /8+ SMA, QZWK3, rade (Last), /04/14, /4+ CME MAY'13 WHEA - WEEKLY SNAPSHO 2010/07/ /06/09 (CHG) Yield (Bu/ Acre) Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports otal Supply Food Seed Feed/Residual otal Domestic Exports otal Usage Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 33.3% 29.5% 30.3% A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q FUNDAMENAL CHARS 660 1/8

6 Commodity Option Future Main Board Net Volatility Month Close Change (%) SAFEX WHEA FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Wheat Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA HRW No.2 Wheat USA HRW No.2 Wheat Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Month May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 SAFEX Wheat Apr' R 10 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX Wheat May' R 10 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX Wheat Jul' R 10 Parity Change Up/Down R 17 R 14 R 14 R 11 R 14 R 15 SAFEX Wheat Sep' R 10 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour n/a n/a n/a USA HRW No.2 Wheat Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein Month May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 Latest SAGIS WHEA IMPORS / EXPORS ('12/'13) R/ton (Current 07:00am) Imported from: otal ons Destined for: R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) RSA Africa Overseas Parity Change Up/Down R 17 R 14 R 14 R 11 R 14 R 15 Overseas SAFEX Below Randfontein n/a n/a n/a Exported from: otal ons Destined for: Wheat Export Parity Randfontein Africa Overseas Month Overseas May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Dec'13 Mar'14 May'14 RSA R/ton (Current 07:00am) R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Parity Change Up/Down R 15 R 13 R 12 R 10 R 12 R 13 SAFEX Below Export Parity n/a n/a n/a RSA WHEA SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION PARIY GRAPH

7 2 Weekly Precipitation Forecast Weather Forecasts : Africa Daily Precipitation Forecast - 13-Apr-13 Daily Precipitation Forecast - 14-Apr-13 IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts Daily Precipitation Forecast - 15-Apr-13

8 2 Weekly Precipitation Forecast Weather Forecasts : North America Soil Moisture Outlook Weekly Precipitation Palmer Drought Index

9 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX JULY'13 WMAZ - DAILY RSI, QMAWN3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/11, Cndl, QMAWN3, rade 2013/04/11, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QMAWN3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/11, , StochS, QMAWN3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/11, , StochS, QMAWN3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/11, , Sep 12 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April

10 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX JULY'13 YMAZ - DAILY RSI, QMAYN3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/11, Cndl, QMAYN3, rade 2013/04/11, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QMAWN3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/11, , StochS, QMAYN3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/11, , StochS, QMAYN3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/11, , October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April

11 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX JULY'13 WMAZ vs. CORN JULY'13 (Corn Split) - Daily MACD, Spread(QCORN3, QMAWN3), 13, 21, 5, Exponential 2013/04/11, , Spread, QCORN3, rade (Last), QMAWN3, rade (Last), 1.0, /04/11, MA, Spread(QCORN3, QMAWN3), 5, 13, Simple 2013/04/11, , RSI, Spread(QCORN3, QMAWN3), 14, Exponential 2013/04/11, Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr

12 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME JULY'13 CORN - DAILY RSI, QCN3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/12, Cndl, QCN3, rade 2013/04/12, 633, /4, /4, /4, +2 1 /4, (+0.36%) 2MA, QCN3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/12, 644+, / StochS, QCN3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/12, , StochS, QCN3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/12, , Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr /8

13 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX MAY'13 WHEA - DAILY RSI, QWEAK3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/11, Cndl, QWEAK3, rade 2013/04/11, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QWEAK3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/11, , StochS, QWEAK3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/11, , StochS, QWEAK3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/11, , November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April

14 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME MAY'13 WHEA - DAILY RSI, QZWK3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/12, Cndl, QZWK3, rade 2013/04/12, 699, /4, /4, /4, +5 1 /2, (+0.79%) 2MA, QZWK3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/12, /8+, / StochS, QZWK3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/12, , StochS, QZWK3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/12, , Sep 12 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April /8

15 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX MAY'13 SUNFLOWER - DAILY RSI, QSUFK3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/11, Cndl, QSUFK3, rade 2013/04/11, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QSUFK3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/11, , StochS, QSUFK3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/11, , StochS, QSUFK3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/11, , November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April

16 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK SAFEX MAY'13 SOYA - DAILY RSI, QMSOYK3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/11, Cndl, QMSOYK3, rade 2013/04/11, , , , , N/A, N/A 2MA, QMSOYK3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/11, , StochS, QMSOYK3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/11, 4.819, StochS, QMSOYK3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/11, 5.180, Nov 12 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April

17 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME MAY'13 SOY - DAILY RSI, QSK3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/12, Cndl, QSK3, rade 2013/04/12, /4, /4, /2, 1407, +4 3 /4, (+0.34%) 2MA, QSK3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/12, /8+, /8+ StochS, QSK3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/12, , StochS, QSK3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/12, , October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April /8

18 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK CME MAY'13 SOYMEAL - DAILY RSI, QSMK3, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/12, USD Sn Cndl, QSMK3, rade 2013/04/12, 395.0, 396.8, 394.4, 396.4, +1.4, (+0.35%) 2MA, QSMK3, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/12, 400.6, StochS, QSMK3, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/12, , StochS, QSMK3, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/12, , Sep 12 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 USD Sn USD Sn

19 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK / USD - DAILY RSI, Q=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/12, /USD Cndl, Q=, Bid 2013/04/12, , , , , , (+0.08%) 2MA, Q=, Bid(Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/12, , /USD StochS, Q=, Bid, 13, 3, Simple, /04/12, , StochS, Q=, Bid, 13, 5, Simple, /04/12, , October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 USD / EUR - DAILY RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/12, USD /USD Cndl, QEUR=, Bid 2013/04/12, , , , , , (+0.08%) 2MA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/12, , USD 1.35 StochS, QEUR=, Bid, 13, 3, Simple, /04/12, , StochS, QEUR=, Bid, 13, 5, Simple, /04/12, , October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April USD 30

20 ECHNICAL GRAPH OULOOK ICE BREN CRUDE - DAILY RSI, QLCOc1, rade (Last), 14, Exponential 2013/04/12, USD Bbl Cndl, QLCOc1, rade 2013/04/12, , , , , +0.05, (+0.05%) 2MA, QLCOc1, rade (Last), 13, 21, Simple 2013/04/12, , USD Bbl StochS, QLCOc1, rade, 13, 3, Simple, /04/12, , StochS, QLCOc1, rade, 13, 5, Simple, /04/12, , October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April USD Bbl F-wise Capital (Pty) Ltd is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange, and a wholly owned subsidiary of Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd Some text, images and any other material contained or displayed are proprietary to F-wise Capital (Pty) Ltd or Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd and constitutes valuable intellectual property intended for subscribers to services offered by F-wise Capital(Pty)Ltd or Farmwise Grains (Pty) Ltd. Any information provided in this report is for interest and educational purposes only, and does not constitute advice. F-wise Capital (Pty)Ltd or Farmwise Grains (Pty) Ltd will not be responsible for losses incurred as a result of the opinions expressed in this report. Since one deals in probabilities in market forecasting, the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. here is a risk of monetary loss in trading and/or investing on the financial markets. F-wise Capital (Pty) or Farmwise Grains (Pty)Ltd does not warrant the integrity of this communication or that it is free of errors, viruses, interception or interference. For more information about Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd or F-wise Capital(Pty)Ltd, visit our website at