Sorghum Forum. 6 November Nico Hawkins General Manager

Transcription

1 Sorghum Forum 6 November 2015 Nico Hawkins General Manager

2 Supply & demand (National vs. International) Marketing year: Mar - Feb SAGIS NAMC (S&DEC) International (IGC) Actual 2014/15 Projection: 2015/16 Estimate: 2014/15 Projection: 2015/16 '000t '000t Mil ton Mil ton Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) 36.2 (b) (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 26 Oct '15, NAMC: S&DEC - 30 Oct ' 15 Source: International Grain Council's Grain Market Report - 29 Oct '15

3 Supply & demand (Sweet & Bitter Sorghum) Marketing year: Mar - Feb SAGIS Actual 2014/15 NAMC (S&DEC) Projection: 2015/16 '000t '000t Sweet Bitter Total Sweet Bitter Total Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 26 Oct '15, NAMC: S&DEC - 30 Oct ' 15 Source: International Grain Council's Grain Market Report - 29 Oct '15

4 Production & Producer deliveries Crop estimates vs. Producer deliveries 2015/16** 2014/ /14 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries Difference * CEC Final Estimate ** SAGIS Progressive Mar - Sep '15

5 Production & Producer deliveries Crop estimates: summer crops - intentions to plant CROP Commercial: Intentions 2016 Area planted 2015 Final estimate 2015 Change Ha Ha Tons % as mid October 2015 as on 29 Sep 2015 (A) (B) (C) (A) (B) White maize ,81 Yellow maize ,29 Maize ,85 Sunflower seed ,60 Soybeans ,32 Groundnuts ,93 Sorghum ,03 Dry beans ,53 TOTAL ,86 Note: Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2015/16 = /16 = 2016 Source: CEC

6 Production & Producer deliveries CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries SORGHUM: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIES CEC Prod deliveries HA Yield S&DEC /06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj. 0.00

7 Imports and Exports per marketing season Summary Marketing year Sorghum Imports Exports Ton 2013/ / /16* *2015/16: Progressive Mar - Sep '15

8 Imports and Exports per marketing season SORGHUM: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC /06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj.

9 Imports and Exports SARS Imports to RSA: 2015/16 Imports Country Tariff Line Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Botswana China India Korea, Rep Of Malawi United States

10 Imports and Exports SARS Exports to RSA: 2015/16 Exports Country Tariff Line Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Botswana Israel Lesotho Mozambique Namibia Swaziland Zambia Zimbabwe

11 Processed & Consumption Sorghum Processed 2015/16 * 2014/15 ** Firms Tons Firms Tons Indoor malting Floor malting Meal, rice & grits Pet Food Poultry feed Lifestock feed * 2015/16: 1 Mar '15-30 Sep '15 Source: SAGIS ** 2014/15: 1 Mar '14-30 Sep '14

12 Consumption SORGHUM: PROCESSED Malting Meal, rice & grits Animal feed S&DEC /06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj.

13 Opening & Ending Stocks SORGHUM: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 *Progr. 15/16 *Proj.

14 Sorghum 2015/16 Marketing Year Ton SORGHUM: 2015/16 MARKETING YEAR (Progressive: 1 Mar - 30 Sep 2015) Projected S&DEC Progressive CEC Prod deliveries Processed Imports Exports

15 Price Movements Local prices (SAFEX) SAFEX: Latest prices vs. previous prices Sorghum Contract 2015/11/ /10/ /11/03 Price % Month Price % Year Price R on Month R on Year R December March Source: SAFEX

16 Price Movements International FOB prices FOB Gulf: Latest prices vs. previous Sorghum US No /10/ /09/ /10/24 Price % Month Price % Year Price $ on Month $ on Year $ Source: International Grains Council: GMR - 29 Oct '15

17 Price Movements Indicative import parity prices Sorghum Sorghum Sorghum 2015/10/27 USA Argentine Australian Golf Up River Brisbane 2015/ / /11 $/t $/t $/t FOB value Freight Insurance (0.3% of FOB) Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) $/t Converted to R/t Exchange R/$ R/t R/t R/t Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) Financing Cost, insurance, freight & financing Discharging (Durban) Import tariff FOR at Durban Railage: Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein Source: International Grains Council: GMR - 29 Oct '15

18 SARS FOB prices SARS Annual average prices: (2014/15: Jan Aug) SORGHUM Imports Qua ntity (Ton) 2015/ / /14 All years Feb - Aug Total value of imports FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton SORGHUM Exports Quantity (Ton) 2015/ / /14 All years Feb - Aug Total value of imports FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton

19 Sorghum: Co-workers

20 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase (Chairperson) Mr Anton Nebe (Vice Chairperson) Sorghum Trust is represented by: Mr John Gordon Mr Anton Nebe Mr Jaap van der Westhuizen (Alternate)

21 Acknowledgement The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil our commitments: Sorghum Trust Sorghum Forum Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff

22 Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS website under SAGIS information, Presentations Thank you