Operational Forum Meeting

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1 Operational Forum Meeting Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. 2 April 216 Radisson Grafton Hotel, 13 Tottenham Court Road, London. 1

2 System Management Principles Statement Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Summary of balancing actions and breaches for February and March 217 Performance compared to last year 2

3 Summary Report February and March 217 Feb-17 Mar-17 Total Number of Buy Actions 3 1 Total Number of Sell Actions 6 14 Total 9 15 Number of Balancing Actions (Calendar year to date) Mar-17 Mar

4 Operational Overview Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. 4

5 Demands Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. 6

6 mcm Gas Demand Breakdown 1st March 216 to 31st March 217 vs Previous Year NDM DM (Exc Interconnectors) Total Interconnector Export Storage Injection Previous Years Actual Demand 6

7 Gas Demand Breakdown 1st October 216 to 31st March 217 vs Same Period in Previous Years 1% 9% 8% 7% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 9% 6% 7% 9% 5% 13% 11% 19% 16% 14% 14% 15% 18% 23% 6% 5% 4% 3% 65% 64% 73% 71% 7% 64% 65% 2% 1% % Oct-1 to Mar-11 Oct-11 to Mar-12 Oct-12 to Mar- 13 Oct-13 to Mar-14 Oct-14 to Mar-15 Oct-15 to Mar-16 LDZ Powerstation Interconnectors Storage Injection Industrial Oct-16 to Mar-17 LDZ Power Station Interconnectors Storage Industrial 7

8 mcm Gas Demand Statistics 1 st October 216 to 31 st March Gas Year Average Gas Year Max to date Gas Year Min to date NDM DM (Exc Interconnectors) Storage Injection Total Interconnector Export 8

9 mcm Demand Variance from SND 1st March 216 to 31st March Demand / SND Variance 9

10 mcm Gas Demand Vs SND / Cold / Warm 1st March 216 to 31st March Total Demand SND Cold Warm 1

11 mcm LDZ Actual Demand Vs LDZ SND 1 st April 216 to 31 st March Summer Average [Apr 16 to Sep 16] Winter Average [Oct 16 to Date] LDZ Actual LDZ SND 11

12 mcm LDZ Demand / LDZ SND Variance 1st March 216 to 31st March Demand / SND Variance 12

13 mcm Gas Consumption for Power Generation 1st March 216 to 31st March Actual for Power Generation Previous Year 13

14 Supplies Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. 14

15 mcm Gas Supply Breakdown 1st March 216 to 31st March 217 vs Previous Year Gas Day UKCS Norwegian LNG BBL LRS MRS IUK SRS Previous Year Supply 15

16 Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st October 216 to 31 st March 217 vs Same Period in Previous Years 1% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 9% 8% 14% 2% 11% 17% 6% 7% 1% 8% 6% 13% 8% 13% 6% 1% 6% 1% 4% 6% 5% 25% 31% 35% 37% 38% 36% 42% 4% 3% 2% 39% 4% 31% 36% 33% 36% 38% 1% % Oct-1 to Mar-11 Oct-11 to Mar-12 Oct-12 to Mar-13 Oct-13 to Mar-14 Oct-14 to Mar-15 Oct-15 to Mar-16 Oct-16 to Mar-17 UKCS Norwegian LNG Interconnectors Storage 16

17 mcm NSS (Non Storage Supply) 1 st October 216 to 31 st March Gas Year Average Gas Year Max to date Margins Notice Assumptions Capacity UKCS Norway LNG BBL IUK 17

18 mcm pp/th differential (NBP vs. Zee) IUK Flows vs NBP & ZEE Price Differential 1st March 216 to 31st March IMPORT TO NBP EXPORT TO ZEE IUK IUK Import Capacity IUK Export Capacity IUK Price Differential 18

19 mcm LNG Terminal Flows 1st March 216 to 31st March South Hook Dragon Isle of Grain Previous Year LNG 19

20 mcm Norwegian Flows 1st March 216 to 31st March Langeled FLAGS [estimated] Vesterled [estimated] Previous Year Norway 2

21 mcm Storage Withdrawal vs Injection 1st March 216 to 31st March Withdrawal Injection 21

22 twh Long Range Storage Stocks (LRS) 1 st October 216 to 31 st March 217 vs Previous Years LRS 216/217 LRS 215/216 LRS 214/215 LRS 213/214 22

23 twh Medium Range Storage Stocks (MRS) 1 st October 216 to 31 st March 217 vs Previous Years MRS 216/217 MRS 215/216 MRS 214/215 MRS 213/214 23

24 % Combined EU Storage Stocks (% Full) 1 st October 216 to 31 st March 217 vs Previous Years /17 215/16 214/15 213/14 24

25 p/therm UK Gas Prices 1st March 216 to 31st March 217 vs Previous Year SAP SMPB SMPS Previous Year SAP 25

26 What Operational Issues Affected Users? 26

27 Transporter Actions and Neutrality Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Energy Balancing Capacity 28

28 Gwh Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM NGG Monthly Buys and Sells 1st March 216 to 31st March 217 vs Previous Year Buy 215/16 Buy Prev Year Sell 215/16 Sell Prev Year 28

29 % Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPB) March 216 to March SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal] 29

30 % Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPS) March 216 to March SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal] 3

31 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM) January and February 217 4,, 35,, 3,, 1,871,71 182,874 Net Credit 56,244 7,26,158 25,, 2,, 15,, 32,25,985 26,493,528 1,, 5,, Credits Debits 31

32 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM) January and February 217 Jan-17 Feb-17 Imbalance Payment [DCS] -14,232,377-12,261,151 Charge [DCT] 18,511,497 13,694,488 Scheduling Exit Charge [DXS] Exit Charge [EXS] 1,98 81,966 Entry Charge [ESC] OCM Payment [TTB] -6,59,38-1,146,778 Charge [TTS] 1,871,71 Balancing Costs -1,679,352 2,239,596 32

33 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs OCM Payments / Charges January and February 217 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, -2,, 1/1/217 15/1/217 29/1/217 12/2/217 26/2/217 Payment [TTB] Charge [TTS] 33

34 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Imbalance Payments / Charges January and February 217 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, -5, -1,, -1,5, 1/1/217 8/1/217 15/1/217 22/1/217 29/1/217 Payment [DCS] Charge [DCT] 34

35 Energy Balancing Balancing Costs Scheduling Charges January and February 217 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1/1/217 15/1/217 29/1/217 12/2/217 26/2/217 Day Exit Charge [DXS] Entry Charge [ESC] Exit Charge [EXS] 35

36 Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue 1st April 216 to 31st March 217 Revenue/Costs WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue - 1,238,925 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs 526,236 Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue - 1,379,261 Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) - 261,317 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges - 14,249 Net Revenue - 2,367,516 36

37 Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue 1st April 216 to 31st March

38 Capacity Neutrality 1 st April 216 to 31 st March 217 Month Entry Cap Overrun Revenue Non-obligated sales revenue (entry) Month Locational Sells and PRI charges revenue Apr-16-11, May-16-79, Jun , Jul-16-59,4-1,74 Aug-16-78, Sep-16-38, Oct-16-39,985-7,426 Nov ,711-7,426 Dec ,67-4,894 Jan-17-73, ,81 Feb ,99-95,258 Mar-17-16,559 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16-14,249 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Total - 1,414,197 (FY16-17) - 26,997 (FY16-17) Total 14,249 (FY16/17) 38

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