What Does the March Prospective Plantings Report Mean for the Outlook? Chris Hurt & Corinne Alexander
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1 What Does the March Prospective Plantings Report Mean for the Outlook? Chris Hurt & Corinne Alexander Purdue University April 1, 2014" Webinar: April 1, 2014
2 Questions: to: Webinar: April 1, 2014
3 Stocks Situation Stocks March 1 Expectation (Dow Jones Survey) Difference Corn: Bullish Soybeans Neutral Wheat: Neutral Million Bushels ,006 7, ,056 1, Webinar: April 1, 2014
4 Corn, Soybean, Wheat Planted Acres Corn -3.9% Beans +6.5% Wheat -0.6% Million Acres Corn Soybeans Wheat
5 2014 vs vs 13 U.S. Planted Acres (1,000acres) Acreage % Change Change Corn 91,936 97,155 95,365 91,691-3, % Soybeans 75,046 77,198 76,533 81,493 4, % Wheat 54,409 55,666 56,156 55, % Cotton 14,735 12,314 10,407 11, % Sorghum 5,481 6,244 8,061 6,681-1, % Oats 2,496 2,760 3,010 2, % Barley 2,559 3,637 3,480 3, % Rice 2,689 2,700 2,489 2, % Sunflower 1,543 1,919 1,576 1, % Sum 9 250, , , , %
6 Webinar: April 1, 2014
7 Estimated Variable Cost Per Acre: Average Quality Indiana Land (163 bu corn, 54 beans, 70 wheat)" Rotation CORN Rotation BEANS WHEAT Webinar: April 1, 2014
8 2012 Estimated Crop Budget: Indiana: March 31, 2014 Prices Corn Beans Wheat Harvest Futures 2014 $4.98 $11.87 $6.27 Expected Basis Expected Cash Price $4.73 $11.57 $6.67 Continuous Corn Estimated Yield/Acre and Returns/Acre Above Variable Costs Rotation Single-Crop Rotation Corn Soybeans Wheat Land Quality bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre bu./acre $/acre Low 122 $ $ $ $211 Average 153 $ $ $ $286 High 184 $ $ $ $359 Budget: Purdue ID-166 (January 2014) Webinar: April 1, 2014
9 New Crop Futures March 3 March 31 Change Corn $4.71 $4.98 +$.27 Soybeans $11.64 $ $.20 Returns Per Acre Returns Above Variable Costs March 1 March 31 Change Corn $295 $339 +$44/a Soybeans $339 $351 +$12/a Beans > Corn $44 $12 Webinar: April 1, 2014
10 Crop Insurance Prices 14 Crop Insure Price Dec/Nov Futures Protected Revenue Corn $4.62 $5.02 $640 Soybeans $11.36 $11.94 $521 Protected Revenue calculation assumes average quality land in Indiana, and Coverage level of 85% Webinar: April 1, 2014
11 Corn: USDA 3/10/14 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Million Bushels Purdue Planted: % Carryin 1,708 1, ,356 Production 12,447 12,358 10,780 13,925 13,721 Total Supply 14,182 13,514 11,932 14,781 15,102 Feed & Residual 4,792 4,547 4,336 5,225 5,450 FSI Non-Fuel 1,406 1,426 1,396 1,400 1,425 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 5,021 5,011 4,648 5,075 5,050 Export 1,835 1, ,725 1,750 Total Use 13,054 12,525 11,111 13,425 13,675 Ending Stocks 1, ,356 1,427 US Farm Price $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.65 $4.60 $4.40- $3.60- $4.90 $5.60 Webinar: April 1, 2014
12 Corn 2014 Yield Scenarios: Assuming 91.7 Million Acres Planted Trend Yields Good Yields Poor Yields Million Bushels Yield (bu./ acre) Carryin 1,356 1,356 1,356 Production 13,721 14,311 12,543 Total Supply 15,102 15,692 13,924 Feed & Residual 5,450 5,550 5,000 FSI Non-Fuel 1,425 1,435 1,410 FSI Fuel (Ethanol) 5,050 5, Export 1,750 1,800 1,500 Total Use 13,675 13,885 12,760 Ending Stocks 1,427 1,807 1,164 Price Estimates $4.60 $4.15 $5.90 Webinar: April 1, 2014
13 $5.20 $5.00 $4.30 Webinar: April 1, 2014
14 $5.30 $5.00 Webinar: April 1, 2014
15 Corn Futures: April 1 $5.25 $5.00 $5.06 $5.11 $5.03 $4.89 MYA Price has to drop below $3.70 for PLC payment $4.75 $4.50 $4.71 $4.60 $4.25 $4.00 May 14 July14 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Webinar: April 1, 2014
16 Soybeans:USDA 3/10/14 Purdue 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 Million Bushels Planted: % Carryin Production 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,289 3,518 Total Supply 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,464 3,678 Seed & Residual Crush 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,690 1,720 Exports 1,500 1,365 1,320 1,530 1,590 Total Use 3,280 3,156 3,098 3,319 3,420 Ending Stock Farm Price $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.15 $11.35 $12.20 $9.85- $13.70 $12.85 Webinar: April 1, 2014
17 Soybean 2012 Yield Scenarios: Assuming 81.5 Million Acres Planted Trend Yields Good Yields Poor Yields Million Bushels Yield (bu./ acre) Carryin Production 3,518 3,703 2,917 Total Supply 3,678 3,863 3,220 Seed & Residual Crush 1,720 1,750 1,690 Export 1,590 1,675 1,450 Total Use 3,420 3,555 3,240 Ending Stocks Price Estimates $11.35 $10 - $10.50 $13 - $14 Webinar: April 1, 2014
18 $14.00 Webinar: April 1, 2014
19 $17.95 $16.00 $14.00 Webinar: April 1, 2014
20 $12.30 $12.00 $11.65 Webinar: April 1, 2014
21 $15 $14 $13 $14.77 $14.41 Soybean Futures: April 1 MYA Price has to drop below $8.40 for PLC payment $12 $11 $11.95 $11.46 $10.96 $10.80 $10 $9 May 14 July 14 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Webinar: April 1, 2014
22 Wheat: USDA 3/10/14 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Million Bushels Carry in Production 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,266 2,130 Total Supply 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,131 3,018 Feed & Residual Other Domestic ,018 1,018 1,034 Exports 881 1,289 1,050 1,007 1,175 Total Use 2,017 2,417 2,231 2,413 2,459 End Stocks Farm Price $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.85 $6.75- $6.95 Webinar: April 1, 2014
23 Webinar: April 1, 2014
24 Webinar: April 1, 2014
25 Webinar: April 1, 2014
26 Webinar: April 1, 2014
27 Webinar: April 1, 2014
28 Old-Crop Summary & Strategies 1. Corn usage since harvest has shown consistent growth-maybe 500 million bu. GREATER than USDA in November: Exports, ethanol, feeding. $4 corn was too CHEAP 2. Old crop corn futures sales opportunities in the $5.00-$5.20 range. 3. Old crop bean futures at $14 to $16 with record low carry-out and smaller Brazilian crop Webinar: April 1, 2014
29 New-Crop Summary & Strategies 1. Some acreage will shift back to corn after report-maybe 1.0 to 1.5 million acres. But, wet spring may keep acreage mix fairly close to report numbers 2. Fear of building corn surpluses in coming years has been greatly diminished. Production/use are reasonably balanced soybean crop will build inventory from record lows, prices drop about $2.00 a bushel 4. Currently have opportunities to price new-crop above insurance price guarantees for corn and beans. 5. Farm Bill: 14 to 18 crop prices may be well above the $3.70 PLC reference price for corn and $8.40 for beans Webinar: April 1, 2014
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