2017 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 13. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market and Profitability Prospects

Transcription

1 2017 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters 13. Ethanol and Biodiesel Market and Profitability Prospects Dan O Brien <dobrien@ksu.edu> Daniel O Brien was raised on a grain and livestock farm in south central Nebraska. He received bachelors and masters degrees in Agricultural Economics from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. After completing his Ph.D. at Iowa State, he worked as the Extension Agricultural Economist at the Northwest Research and Extension Center in Colby and was Northwest Area Extension Administrative Director starting in 2003 before returning to his Extension Agricultural Economist position in January His ongoing extension and applied research interests and efforts are in the areas of a) grain market supply-demand analysis, bioenergy impacts and risk management strategies, b) grain industry market structure, conduct and performance focusing on grain handling and transportation issues, and c) economic analysis of irrigated and dryland cropping systems, and associated cropland leasing arrangements. Abstract/Summary Ethanol and biodiesel plants have shown periods of profitability during 2017 following from low input costs for feedgrains, and soybean oil, and moderate strength in selling prices for ethanol and biodiesel. From a Kansas agricultural perspective, this session will particularly focus on how feedgrain usage on one hand, and distillers grain availability on the other have affected state s livestock feed markets. Future prospects for the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), transition from E-10 to E-15 fuel blends, and the performance and prospects for ethanol and DDGS imports and exports will be examined. The session will conclude with a discussion of U.S. energy policy directions and their likely impacts on the ethanol industry and U.S. feedgrain use in the future.

2 U.S. Ethanol & Biodiesel Market Situation 2017 K State Risk & Profit Conference August 17 18, 2017 Daniel O Brien, Ph.D. Extension Agricultural Economist Kansas State University Agenda Trends in the Ethanol Market The Ethanol Industry Situation Tracking the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Ethanol Profitability Ups & Downs Biodiesel Market Prices Biodiesel Profitability Variations

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4 CBOT Ethanol Futures Monthly Continuous Chart: June 2008 thru July /10/2017 a.m. SEPT 2017 $1.581 / gallon Th. 8/10/2017 $ / gallon **Consolidation**

5 $3.50 $3.00 ecbot Ethanol Futures Futures on Thursday, August 10, 2017 a.m. Ethanol prices are projected to decrease marginally through January 2018 $2.50 $ per gallon $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Ethanol & RBOB Futures Monthly Charts: June 2008 July August 1 st & 10 th erbob Gasoline Futures eethanol Futures $Ethanol / $RBOB 7/1/2016 = 1.61 / 1.51 = /1/2016 = 1.40 / 1.30 = /1/2016 = 1.43 / 1.27 = 1.12** 10/3/2016 = 1.57 / 1.47 = /1/2016 = 1.66 / 1.48 = 1.12** 12/1/2016 = 1.57 / 1.55 = /3/2017 = 1.53 / 1.62 = /1/2017 = 1.51 / 1.58 = /1/2017 = 1.54 / 1.68 = 0.92** 4/3/2017 = 1.64 / 1.69 = /1/2016 = 1.57 / 1.53 = /1/2017 = 1.55 / 1.60 = /3/2017 = 1.53 / 1.53 = /1/2017 = 1.54 / 1.66 = 0.93** 8/10/2016 = 1.59 / 1.62 = 0.98

6 CME Light Crude Oil Spot Price Weekly High Low Close, March 2015 August 9, 2017 CME Gasoline Unleaded Spot Price Weekly High Low Close, March 2015 August 9, 2017

7 Retail Diesel & Gasoline Prices Weekly Continuous Chart: April 5, 1993 through August 7, 2017 Diesel $2.581 /gal 8/7/2017 $2.581 $2.404 Gasoline $2.492 /gal 8/7/2017 ICE U.S. Dollar Index Cash Settle Weekly High Low Close, March 2015 August 9, 2017

8 CBOT Corn Futures Weekly Continuous Chart: JULY /4/ /10/2017 a.m. SEPT 2017 $3.76 ¾ /bu 8/10/2017 a.m. $3.77 $ / bushel $3.46 ½ $3.54 ¼ $3.01 CBOT Corn Futures Monthly Continuous Chart: March 2008 April /27/2017 a.m. JULY 2017 $3.61 1/4 /bu 6/27/2017 a.m. $ / bushel $2.90 $3.18 ½ $3.46 ½ $3.01 $3.61

9 CBOT Corn Futures Monthly Continuous Chart: June 2008 July /10/2017 a.m. $ / bushel SEPT 2017 $3.76 ¾ /bu 8/10/2017 a.m. $3.77 $2.90 $3.18 ½ $3.46 ½ $3.01 U.S. Ethanol Capacity & Production Source: Renewable Fuels Association as of May 10, 2017 (most recent) Billion Gallons / Year U.S. Ethanol Plants Plant Capacity Expansion Plant Capacity in Operation Annual Production (Full Year)

10 U.S. Ethanol Production & Corn Use Weekly EIA ethanol data & KSU corn use est s. (6/4/2010 thru 8/4/2017) Ethanol Production (Million Barrels / Day) 1,200 1, / / / / / / ,008 1,029 1, / bb U.S. Corn 2016/ bb U.S. Corn 1, Rate of Corn Use (Billion Bu / mktg year) Month / Week / Year Rate of Ethanol Production (1,000 Barrels / day) Rate of Corn Use / Mktg Year (Billion Bu.) Weekly U.S. Ethanol Production, Imports, Exports & Stocks Ethanol (1,000 Barrells) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10, / / / / / / / /17 6/4/2010 to 8/4/2017 U.S. DOE-EIA data 5,000 0 Imports Exports Production Stocks

11 Weekly U.S. Ethanol Imports, Exports & %-of-stocks Imports Exports (1,000 Barrels) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, / / / / / / / /17 6/4/2010 to 8/4/2017 U.S. DOE EIA data 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% % of Ethanol Production Exports Imports % Exports/Prodn % Imports/Prodn Billion bu Corn Equivalents U.S. Corn Use With est. DDGS #s August 2017 WASDE & KSU Estimates DDGS Exports Corn Used for Ethanol Livestock Feed Use of Corn End Stocks

12 DDGS $ / ton Ethanol DDGS & Corn Input Prices ISU Ethanol Plant Model (January 2005 August 4, 2017) $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $6.45 $186 $79 $7.21 $209 $8.15 $299 $7.17 $103 Corn$ 8/4/2017 $3.26 /bu $3.78 $3.42 $161 DDGS$ 8/4/2017 $ /ton Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 $3.26 $107 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Corn $ / bushel DDGS $/ton Corn $/bu $3.00 Ethanol Price, Cost & Profits ISU Ethanol Plant Model (January 2005 August 4, 2017*) $ Per Gallon of Ethanol $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 ($0.50) Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 July 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Aug* Price $1.47 Aug* Cost $1.42 Aug* Net $0.05 Profit Loss $/gal Ethanol $/gal Ethanol Breakeven $/gal

13 Ethanol Revenues & Net Returns ISU Ethanol Plant Model (January 2005 August 4, 2017***) $ Per Gallon of Ethanol $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 ($0.50) As of August 4, 2017 Ethanol = $1.47 /g DDGS = $0.33 /g Jan 05 Jun 05 Nov 05 Apr 06 Sep 06 Feb 07 Jul 07 Dec 07 May 08 Oct 08 Mar 09 Aug 09 Jan 10 Jun 10 Nov 10 Apr 11 Sep 11 Feb 12 Jul 12 Dec 12 May 13 Oct 13 Mar 14 Aug 14 Jan 15 Jun 15 Nov 15 Apr 16 Sep 16 Feb 17 Aug* Net $0.05/g Ethanol Revenue $/gal DDGS Revenue$/gal Profit Loss $/gal CBOT Soybean Oil Futures Monthly Continuous Chart: June 2008 through July /10/2017 AUG 2017 $33.52 / cwt 8/10/2017 $ / cwt $33.52

14 Biodiesel $ / gallon $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Biodiesel & Soybean Oil Prices ISU Biodiesel Plant Model (April 2007 August 4, 2017***) $0.62 $5.51 $0.28 $2.68 $0.56 $5.74 $0.54 $4.51 $0.50 $5.03 $0.41 $3.75 $0.34 $3.24 $0.26 $2.52 Soybean Oil$ 8/4/2017 $0.3360/lb. $0.32 $3.53 Biodiesel$ 8/4/2017 $3.30 /gallon Apr 07 Sep 07 Feb 08 Jul 08 Dec 08 May 09 Oct 09 Mar 10 Aug 10 Jan 11 Jun 11 Nov 11 Apr 12 Sep 12 Feb 13 Jul 13 Dec 13 May 14 Oct 14 Mar 15 Aug 15 Jan 16 June 16 Nov 16 Apr 17 Sept 17 $0.336 $3.30 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 Soybean Oil $ / pound Biodiesel $/gallon Soybean Oil $/pound Biodiesel Price, Cost & Profits ISU Biodiesel Plant Model (April 2007 August 4, 2017**) $6 $ Per Gallon of Biodiesel $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 $1 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 July 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 July 17 August* Price $3.30 August* Cost $3.18 August* Net +$0.12 Profit Loss $/gal Biodiesel $/gal Biodiesel Breakeven $/gal

15 Questions? Daniel O Brien Extension Agricultural Economist Kansas State University dobrien@ksu.edu KSUGrains on Twitter & Facebook