Rice Outlook U.S. and World February 9, 2017

Transcription

1 Rice Outlook U.S. and World February 9, 217 Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas System

2 World Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9, 217 By Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas 8

3 World Rice Area Harvested 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb Millions of Hectares World rice acreage at million hectares 2 nd highest on record 9

4 World Rice Yield (Rough) 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb Metric Tons World rice yield at 4.4 metric tons per hectare Consistent with previous 4 periods

5 World Rice Rough Production 17/-216/ Millions of Metric Tons 4 3 World rice rough production at 7.9 million metric tons Highest on record 2 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17

6 World Rice Milled Production 17/-216/17 6 Millions of Metric Tons World rice milled production at 48.1 million metric tons Highest on record 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17

7 World Rice Trade Year Exports Calendar 17/-216/17 5 Millions of Metric Tons World trade at 41.5 million metric tons 4 th highest on record In-part reflects anemic global growth 5 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb. 17

8 World Rice Total Use 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb Millions of Metric Tons World rice total use at million metric tons Highest on record

9 World Rice Ending Stocks 17/-216/17 17/ 19/9 19/ 19/ 15/ 19/ 19/ 21/2 23/4 25/6 27/8 29/ 2/ 2/ 2/16 Dec. 16 Feb Millions of Metric Tons World rice ending stocks at 8 million metric tons Highest since 21/2

10 U.S. Long-Grain Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9,

11 U.S. Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres 12/73 216/17 9,2 1,58,4 1,37, 1,453,3 1,531, 1,467, 1,543, 1,5, 1,, 2,17, 2,4, 2,175, 2,, 1,2, 1,, 1,6, 2,233, 1,9, 2,65, 2,23, 2,372, 2,28, 2,379, 2,3, 1,7, 2,39, 2,568, 2,718, 2,1, 2,6, 2,5, 2,3, 2,571, 2,734, 2,1, 2,52, 2,35, 2,265, 2,6, 1,739, 1,9, 1,767, 2,2, 1,, 2,4, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 216 long grain rice harvested acres estimated at 2,4, acres 31% above 2, 5 year average 1,,8, year average 2,,3, year average 2,268,467 acres

12 U.S. Long Grain Rice Yield 12/73 216/17 8, 4,6 4,9 4,375 4,376 4,576 4,24 4,45 4,9 4,2 4,449 4,2 4,168 4,5 5,168 5,358 5,241 5,345 5,464 5,221 5,3 5,3 5, 5,69 5,265 5,777 5,3 5,426 5,5 5,8 6,2 6,26 6,451 6,63 6,479 6,727 6, 6,522 6,743 6,4 6,6 7,2 7,464 7,47 7,219 6,7 7, 6, 5, 4, Pounds per acre 3, 2, The U.S. LG rice yield is estimated at 6,7 pounds per acre or 4 bushels per acre. 1,

13 U.S. Long Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 12/ 216/ /17 long grain rice beginning stocks at 22.7 million cwt, previous year average was Sept, 16 22

14 U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 12/ 216/ /17 long grain rice production is estimated at million cwt, 25% above last year, 5 year average 8 and year average Sept, 16 23

15 25 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 12/ 216/ /17 long grain rice total supply is estimated at 29.7 million cwt, 3rd largest on record, 16% above last year, 5 year average 1 and year average June,16 Sept, 16 24

16 U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 12/ 216/ /17 long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 2 million cwt, 3 rd largest on record, 5 year average 9 and year average Sept, 16 25

17 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 12/ 216/ /17 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 78 million cwt, 5 year average 7 and year average Sept, 16 26

18 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 12/ 216/ /17 long grain rice total use is estimated at 178 million cwt, 4 th largest on record, 5 year average 9 and year average Sept, 16 27

19 U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 12/ 216/ /17 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 31.7 million cwt, 3 rd largest since 15, 5 year average 22.3 and year average Sept, 16 28

20 U.S. Medium & Short-Grain Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9,

21 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Harvested Acres 12/ 216/ Million acres

22 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 12/ 216/ Sept, 16 32

23 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Production 12/ 216/ Sept, 16 33

24 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Supply 12/ 216/ Sept, 16 34

25 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 12/ 216/ Sept, 16 35

26 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Exports 12/ 216/ Sept, 16 36

27 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Use 12/ 216/ Sep, 16 37

28 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Ending Stocks 12/ 216/ Sep, 16 38

29 U.S. All Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show February 9,

30 U.S. All Rice Planted Acres 1/51 216/ Million acres 41

31 U.S. All Rice Yield 1/51 216/ Pounds per acre 42

32 U.S. All Rice Beginning Stocks 1/71 216/ Sept,

33 U.S. All Rice Production 1/71 216/ Sept,

34 U.S. All Rice Imports 1/71 216/ Sept,

35 U.S. All Rice Total Supply 1/71 216/ Sept,

36 U.S. All Rice Total Domestic and Residual Use 1/71 216/ Sept, 16 47

37 U.S. All Rice Total Exports 1/71 216/ Sept,

38 U.S. All Rice Total Use 1/71 216/ Sept,

39 U.S. All Rice Ending Stocks 1/71 216/ Sept,

40 END 51