Strong Global Grain Production Isn t Good Enough. David Hightower The Hightower Report
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1 Strong Global Grain Production Isn t Good Enough David Hightower The Hightower Report
2
3 Big Picture Factors Cost of Production Pricing Not a downtrend signal Goldman $20 oil Forecast was wrong 8.9 mbd! Chinese Car sales Record - 73 million new cars Gas Demand in the US Record $36 -$42 Production areas further from prime areas Mkts work but not as efficient as desired Low Prices cut supply and Increase demand
4 World Smog Index
5 200, , , ,000 China Ethanol Imports (cubic meters) Last 3 Months: 385,710 Total 2015 is 25x Greater Than , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
6 China Coal Consumption - Annual In Million Tonnes of Oil Equivilant If China reduced coal consumption for 2015 by 5%, that is the equivilant of 1.29 Million Barrels / Day Crop Year Beginning
7 EIA Gasoline Demand mbd Million Barrels / Day Most Recent: on 07/08 Source: EIA
8 Forward Issues Don t count out La-Nina The Time Is August Flooding SE Asia China Typhoon Drought heat US Deflation bottoms out gives way to Inflation Chinese Corn Q/Q $10 Bill -3 billion Record US gasoline demand despite economy Indian growth & Production every year Chinese Commodity Impact Remains
9 Double 2014 Indian Production 10 times Australia Pepper Prices Onion Prices, Rice Prices Coffee Prices Palm Oil prices
10 China Still A Force China s appetite for commodities is not waning, according to analysis by the WSJ. China still consumes roughly 1/8 th of the world s oil, 1/4th of the world s gold, 1/3 rd of the world s cotton One half of all the major base metals. The Energy Information Administration predicts China will account for over a quarter of the world s increased demand in oil this year, despite the slowdown Wall Street Journal
11 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT) China Soybean - Net Import / Export Net Imports Most Recent: As Of 07/12/2016 Crop Year Beginning The Hightower Report
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13 Feed Considerations US pork exports during May totaled million pounds, the highest since April US Exports reached 23.6% of total US production, the highest percentage since June Pork Exports to China totaled 72.9 million pounds, the highest total since January Pork exports to China have risen steadily since Dec when the monthly total was only 17.6 million. Chinese Hog herd expanding again
14 Edible Oil = Palm Oil= Prosperity
15 World Palm Oil - Ending Stocks vs. Stocks / Usage Ratio 19% 18% 17% Ending Stocks (MMT) % 15% 14% 13% 12% Stocks / Usage Ratio 2 11% 1 10% 0 9% Crop Year Beginning The Hightower Report Most Recent: As Of 07/12/2016 Ending Stocks Stocks / Use Ratio
16 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT) Vegetable Oil - Major Consumers The Hightower Report Most Recent: As Of 07/12/2016 Crop Year Beginning China India United States
17 $ / Ton Rotterdam 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Cash: Weekly Vegetable Oils - 10 Years Rotterdam Soybean Rapeseed Sun Palm Data As Of: 06/30/2016
18 120% Soybean Oil: US Weekly Export Sales As % of USDA Forecast 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug 15/16 5 Yr Avg
19 World Oilseed - Ending Stocks / Usage Ratio 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% Crop Year Beginning Most Recent: % As Of 07/12/2016 The Hightower Report
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21 Grains Shifting Fortunes Historical High & Low Ending Bean Stocks South America supply losses Unrelenting Chinese demand US pork exports/chinese pork imports August weather most critical for Soy Yield Small setbacks in Palm production are huge for the rest of the edible oilseeds
22 Drop of 2 bu/acre = 3% Stocks/Usage! USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND 16/17 "What If's" US SOYBEANS Jul Jul Jul USDA USDA USDA Planted Area (M Acres) Harvested Area (Acres) Yield (Bu/Acre) Beginning Stocks (M Bu) Production 2,967 3,361 3,331 3,097 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,929 3,880 3,710 3,880 4,001 Im ports Supply,Total 3,185 3,514 3,497 3,328 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,145 4,260 4,090 4,260 4,381 Crushings 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,890 1,925 1,925 1,925 1,925 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,505 1,366 1,328 1,638 1,843 1,795 1,920 1,920 1,920 1,920 Seed Residual Use, Total 3,047 3,363 3,282 3,159 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,794 3,970 3,970 3,970 3,970 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 2.6% 4.9% 9.2% 7.3% 3.0% 7.3% 10.3%
23 US Soybeans Yield - Actual vs Trendline Bushels / Acre Updated: 07/12/2016 Actual Trendline The Hightower Report
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25 Going Forward Soybean Feed mix demand to grow Per Capita demand in 3 rd world/developing rising Asian & Indian Weather critical every year Fishmeal substitutes spreading impact oil/meal 8 yr low for palm oil stks; 19 year low stocks/usage 10% drop palm oil exp = 4.4 mil tonnes but soyoil exp from Argentina & US combined is only 7 mmt! Soy wildly bearish to potentially bullish or very
26
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28 Going Forward Corn China Stocks Good or Bad Final South American losses How good is US Yield Ukraine soon to be a major force Deflated & Below COP Pricing? China Imports & Chinese weather
29 China Corn - Ending Stocks vs. Stocks / Usage Ratio 122% 106% Ending Stocks (MMT) % 74% 58% 42% Stocks / Usage Ratio 20 26% 0 10% Crop Year Beginning The Hightower Report Most Recent: As Of 07/12/2016 Ending Stocks Stocks / Usage Ratio
30 Million Metric Tonnes (MMT) China Corn - Net Imports / Exports Net Imports Net Exports Crop Year Beginning Most Recent: 0.98 As Of 07/12/2016 The Hightower Report
31 World Corn - Ending Stocks vs. Stocks / Usage Ratio 50% 45% Ending Stocks (MMT) % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Stocks / Usage Ratio Crop Year Beginning 10% The Hightower Report Source: USDA Most Recent: As Of 07/12/2016 Ending Stocks Stocks / Usage Ratio
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33 Wheat 29 Year high in stocks Feeding wheat Pattern Wheat Locked behind Soybeans then corn India will be the next significant production focus
34 World Coarse Grains - Ending Stocks vs. Stocks / Usage Ratio 37% 34% 31% Ending Stocks (MMT) % 25% 22% 19% 16% Stocks / Usage Ratio % The Hightower Report Source: USDA Most Recent: As Of 07/12/2016 Crop Year Beginning Ending Stocks 10% Stocks / Usage Ratio
35 150 World Wheat - Days of Supply Days Crop Year Beginning Most Recent: As Of 07/12/2016 The Hightower Report
36 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000-80, , , ,000 Wheat - COT - Futures and Options Non-Commercial and Nonreportable Combined Net Position Number Of Contracts The Hightower Report Source: CFTC Max: 50,736 (8/7/2012) - Min: -122,081 (3/1/2016) - Most Recent: -94,061 (07/12/2016)
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