Crop Market Outlook 8/22/2017
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1 MSU is an affirmativeaction, equal-opportunity employer. Michigan State University Extension programs and materials are open to all without regard to race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, religion, age, height, weight, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, marital status, family status or veteran status. Crop Market Outlook Jim Hilker Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics Department Michigan State University August 22,
2 USDA Reports Cattle On Feed (July 1 numbers, July 21 release) Cattle On Feed (August 1 numbers, August 25 release) Hogs and Pigs (June 1 numbers, June 29 release) Hogs and Pigs (Sept. 1 numbers, Sept. 28 release) Acreage (Early June Survey, June 30 release) Crop Production (Aug. 10, Corn, Wheat, Soybeans) Crop Production (Sept. 12, Corn and Soybeans) Small Grains Summary (Sept. 29 release) Monthly Corn Futures 2
3 September 2017 Corn Futures 3
4 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN 4
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6 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN Historical Ethanol Operating Margins Source: CARD 6
7 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN 7
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11 U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/10/2017 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn , , Sorghum Soybeans , , All Wheat Durum Hard Red Spring Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter White OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil , , Soymeal , , , ,256.1 Sept. ELECTRONIC US DOLLAR INDEX 11
12 U.S. Dollar Index Monthly 12
13 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN 13
14 Corn Futures Contract Last Change Sep ' s +1-4 Dec ' s +1-4 Mar ' s +1-4 May ' s +1-6 Jul ' s +1-6 Sep ' s +1-2 Dec ' s +1-6 Mar ' s +1-2 May ' s +1-2 Jul ' s +1-6 Sep ' s Dec ' s +0-2 July 2017 Corn Futures 14
15 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN 15
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23 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN 8/10/2017 Michigan Supply/Use Balance Sheet for Corn Very Rough Est. Proj. Hilker Corn Marketing Year 2004/052005/ / / / /102010/ / / / / / / /18 Corn Grain Production Thousand Acres Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield bushels/acre Million Bushels Beginning stocks Production Imports Total Supply Corn Use Livestock Feed Ethanol Canada for Ethanol Other Exports to Canda Exports, Michigan, to U.S Other Uses and Residual Total Disapperance Ending Stocks
24 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN 24
25 USDA Cattle On Feed Fri Jul 21, :33 PM CDT USDA Cattle On Feed 07/21 14:10 USDA Actual Average Guess Range Cattle On Feed: On Feed July % 103.0% % Placed in June 116.0% 106.0% % Marketed in June 104.0% 104.5% % 25
26 Est. Proj (million acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (million bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Ind Ethanol for fuel Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $1.98 $1.98 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 $1.95 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $2.32 $2.42 $2.06 $2.00 $3.04 $4.20 $4.06 $3.55 $5.18 $6.22 $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.61 $3.35 $3.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 1 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN 26
27 Corn Futures Contract Last Change Sep ' s +1-4 Dec ' s +1-4 Mar ' s +1-4 May ' s +1-6 Jul ' s +1-6 Sep ' s +1-2 Dec ' s +1-6 Mar ' s +1-2 May ' s +1-2 Jul ' s +1-6 Sep ' s Dec ' s
28 Dec 2017 Corn Futures Dec 2017 Futures Price Probability 28
29 U.S. corn long-term projections Item 2015/ / / / / / / / / / / /27 Area (million acres): Planted acres Harvested acres Yield: Bushels per harvested acre Supply and use (million bushels): Beginning stocks 1,731 1,738 2,403 2,298 2,213 2,193 2,104 2,033 2,023 1,933 1,923 1,896 Production 13,601 15,226 14,060 14,135 14,300 14,285 14,360 14,520 14,495 14,655 14,719 14,784 Imports Supply 15,400 17,013 16,513 16,483 16,563 16,528 16,514 16,603 16,568 16,638 16,692 16,730 Feed & residual 5,130 5,650 5,500 5,500 5,600 5,625 5,700 5,800 5,850 5,950 6,025 6,075 Food, seed, & industrial 6,635 6,735 6,765 6,795 6,770 6,775 6,730 6,705 6,685 6,640 6,620 6,595 Ethanol and by-products 5,206 5,300 5,325 5,350 5,325 5,325 5,275 5,250 5,225 5,175 5,150 5,125 Domestic use 11,764 12,385 12,265 12,295 12,370 12,400 12,430 12,505 12,535 12,590 12,645 12,670 Exports 1,898 2,225 1,950 1,975 2,000 2,025 2,050 2,075 2,100 2,125 2,150 2,175 Total use 13,662 14,610 14,215 14,270 14,370 14,425 14,480 14,580 14,635 14,715 14,795 14,845 Ending stocks 1,738 2,403 2,298 2,213 2,193 2,104 2,033 2,023 1,933 1,923 1,896 1,885 Stocks/use ratio, percent Prices (dollars per bushel): Farm price Variable costs of production (dollars): Per acre Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre): Net returns Note: Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn. WHEAT 29
30 Monthly Wheat Futures September 2017 Wheat Futures 30
31 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Bu./Harvested Acre (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Food Seed Feed and Residual Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.89 $4.80 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker ( ) TABLE 2 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT 31
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33 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Bu./Harvested Acre (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Food Seed Feed and Residual Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.89 $4.80 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker ( ) TABLE 2 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT 33
34 U.S. All Wheat Acres 100,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000, USDA, Acreage 6/30/
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39 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Bu./Harvested Acre (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Food Seed Feed and Residual Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.89 $4.80 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker ( ) TABLE 2 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT 39
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42 U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/10/2017 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn , , Sorghum Soybeans , , All Wheat Durum Hard Red Spring Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter White OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil , , Soymeal , , , ,256.1 Rice (in thousand bales) Upland Cotton , , ,
43 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Bu./Harvested Acre (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Food Seed Feed and Residual Total Domestic Exports Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $2.80 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 U.S. Season Ave U.S. $/Bu. $3.40 $3.40 $3.42 $4.26 $6.48 $6.78 $4.87 $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.89 $3.89 $4.80 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker ( ) TABLE 2 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT 43
44 Wheat Futures Contract Last Change Sep ' s +2-0 Dec ' s +1-6 Mar ' s +1-4 May ' s +0-4 Jul ' s +0-2 Sep ' s +0-4 Dec ' s +0-4 Mar ' s +0-4 May ' s Jul ' s
45 September 2017 Wheat Futures Sept 2017 Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures 45
46 Dec 2017 Wheat Futures December 17 Futures Price Probability 46
47 U.S. wheat long-term projections Item 2015/ / / / / / / / / / / /27 Area (million acres): Planted acres Harvested acres Yield: Bushels per harvested acre Supply and use (million bushels): Beginning stocks , Production 2,062 2,310 1,936 1,976 2,012 2,029 2,045 2,062 2,079 2,096 2,113 2,129 Imports Supply 2,927 3,410 3,199 3,094 3,029 2,986 2,959 2,939 2,926 2,920 2,921 2,938 Food ,000 1,005 1,010 Seed Feed & residual Domestic use 1,176 1,292 1,231 1,227 1,222 1,217 1,222 1,227 1,232 1,237 1,242 1,247 Exports ,005 1,015 1,025 1,025 1,035 Total use 1,952 2,267 2,206 2,202 2,197 2,202 2,217 2,232 2,247 2,262 2,267 2,282 Ending stocks 976 1, Stocks/use ratio, percent Prices (dollars per bushel): Farm price Variable costs of production (dollars): Per acre Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre): Net returns Note: Marketing year beginning June 1 for wheat. SOYBEAN OUTLOOK 47
48 Monthly Soybeans Futures September 2017 Soybean Futures 48
49 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Crushings Exports Seed Residual Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.50 $9.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 3 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANS 49
50 T o ta l 8/22/2017 WASDE August 2017 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ SOYBEAN OIL 2015/1 2016/17 Est. 2017/18 Proj. Jul Million Pounds Beginning Stocks Production 4/ Imports Supply, Total Domestic Disappearance Biodiesel 3/ Food, Feed & other Industrial Exports Use, Total Ending stocks Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ /18 Proj. Aug Historical Biodiesel Operating Margins 50
51 T o ta l 8/22/2017 WASDE U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ SOYBEAN MEAL 2015/1 2016/17 Est. 2017/18 Proj. Jul Thousand Short Tons Beginning Stocks Production 4/ Imports Supply, Total Domestic Disappearance Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Price ($/s.t.) 2/ /18 Proj. Aug Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, Sept 2017 Soybean Futures 51
52 Sept 2017 Soymeal Futures July 2017 Soyoil Futures 52
53 December 2017 Soymeal Futures Dec 2017 Soymeal Futures Price Prob. 53
54 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Crushings Exports Seed Residual Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.50 $9.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 3 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANS 54
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56 U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 8/10/2017 New Crop Weekly Prev Weekly Sales Unshipped Total Year Sales Unshipped --GRAINS-- (in million bushels) Corn , , Sorghum Soybeans , , All Wheat Durum Hard Red Spring Hard Red Winter Soft Red Winter White OTHER-- (in thousand metric tons) Soyoil , , Soymeal , , , ,
57 B e g in n in g S to c k s B e g in n in g S to c k s P ro d u c tio n Im p o rts D o m e stic P ro d u c tio n Im p o rts D o m e stic C ru sh C ru sh D o m e stic T o ta l D o m e stic T o ta l E xp o rts E xp o rts E n d in g S to c k s E n d in g S to c k s 8/22/ /18 Proj. World 2/ Jul Aug /18 Proj. World 2/ Jul Aug United States Jul Aug Total Foreign Jul Aug Major Exporters Jul / Aug Argentina Jul Aug Brazil Jul Aug Paraguay Jul Aug Major Importers Jul / Aug China Jul Aug European Union Jul Aug Japan Jul Aug Mexico Jul Aug
58 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Crushings Exports Seed Residual Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.50 $9.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 3 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANS 58
59 Soybean Futures Contract Last Change Sep ' s +7-2 Nov ' s +4-6 Jan ' s +4-4 Mar ' s +4-2 May ' s +4-0 Jul ' s +3-6 Aug ' s +3-4 Sep ' s +2-4 Nov ' s +1-0 Jan ' s +0-6 Mar ' s +0-6 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Crushings Exports Seed Residual Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.50 $9.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 3 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANS 59
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64 Est. Proj (Million Acres) Acres Planted Acres Harvested Yield/Bushels (Million Bushels) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use: Crushings Exports Seed Residual Total Use Ending Stocks Ending Stocks, %of Use U.S. Loan Rate $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 U.S. Season Ave Farm Price, $/Bu. $5.53 $7.34 $5.74 $5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $8.95 $9.50 $9.30 Source: USDA/WASDE and Jim Hilker. ( ) TABLE 3 SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANS 8/10/2017 Michigan Supply/Use Balance Sheet for Soybeans Very Rough Est. Proj. Proj. Soybean Marketing Year 2004/ / / / / / / / / / / / / /18 Soybean Production Thousand Acres Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield bushels/acre Million Bushels Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total Disapperance Ending Stocks Source: USDA and Jim Hilker 64
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66 Soybean Futures Contract Last Change Sep ' s +7-2 Nov ' s +4-6 Jan ' s +4-4 Mar ' s +4-2 May ' s +4-0 Jul ' s +3-6 Aug ' s +3-4 Sep ' s +2-4 Nov ' s +1-0 Jan ' s +0-6 Mar ' s +0-6 May ' s Jul ' s Aug ' s Sep ' s Nov ' s -0-2 Jul ' s Nov ' s Nov 2017 Soybean Futures 66
67 Nov 2017 Soybean Futures Price Prob. March 2017 Soybean Futures 67
68 March 2017 Soybean Futures Price Prob. U.S. soybeans and soybean products long-term projections Item 2015/ / / / / / / / / / / /27 Soybeans Area (million acres): Planted Harvested Yield, bushels per harvested acre Supply (million bushels) Beginning stocks, September Production 3,926 4,361 4,050 4,070 4,090 4,130 4,195 4,240 4,280 4,325 4,365 4,405 Imports Total supply 4,140 4,588 4,560 4,496 4,446 4,466 4,516 4,570 4,619 4,672 4,725 4,773 Use (million bushels) Crush 1,886 1,930 1,935 1,955 1,970 1,990 2,015 2,040 2,060 2,085 2,105 2,130 Seed and residual Exports 1,936 2,050 2,100 2,085 2,040 2,055 2,070 2,090 2,110 2,125 2,150 2,150 Total use 3,943 4,108 4,165 4,169 4,140 4,175 4,216 4,261 4,302 4,342 4,387 4,412 Ending stocks, August 31 Total ending stocks Stocks/use ratio, percent Prices (dollars per bushel) Soybean price, farm Variable costs of production (dollars): Per acre Returns over variable costs (dollars per acre): Net returns
69 Thanks Questions/Discussion Jim Hilker s Web Page MSU is an affirmative action, equal opportunity employer. Michigan State University Extension programs and materials are open to all without regard to race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, religion, age, height, weight, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, marital status, family status or veteran status. 69
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