No sale Farmers continue to hold tight By Bryce Knorr

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1 No sale Farmers continue to hold tight By Bryce Knorr Basis in the grain cash market didn t firm everywhere during Thanksgiving week, but overall the trend is for strengthening as growers resist selling for low prices. That has end users boosting bids obtain supplies. Merchandisers scrambling to originate final tows on upper stretches of the Mississippi River are the most under the gun. Shipments should be headed south by the end of the week out of terminals south of the Twin Cities to beat closure of aging locks scheduled for repairs that should be underway by Dec. 1. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reported ice forming Sunday at the lock upstream from Hastings, Minn. Bids firmed on the mid- and upper Mississippi despite weaker basis at the Gulf and along the Illinois River, where deliveries against December focus on first notice day Friday. There are 1,426 lots registered along the Illinois River, where cash is running 1 to 13 below option. December-March carry of 13.5 cents amounts to around 3 cents a bushel net of interest per month, not nearly enough for commercials to pay for storage but enough for farm hedgers who can t find basis pushes. Foul weather could provoke some higher bids at ethanol plants, who saw margins improve a little last week thanks to higher ethanol prices as stocks tightened due to lower. Rail basis headed west last firmed as South Korea buyers booked cargoes off the PNW. Corn basis firmed overall a penny or two, though it s a little weaker than average. Lower barge freight rates again last week weren t enough to strengthen soybean basis everywhere on the river system despite stronger bids at the Gulf and robust weekly shipments the week before. Basis was mostly weaker on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. Bids out in the country fared better. Processor basis was steady to better, with improvement noted in the eastern Midwest especially. Processor margins firmed last week after dropping to the lowest level in more than a year the week before. Wheat export demand has finally started to improve, highlighted by another sale of soft red winter wheat out of the Gulf to Egypt. SRW basis strengthened 6.25 cents last week at the Gulf, with that strength flowing up the Ohio River. Only 1 lots are registered for delivery in the Toledo area. Though 152 hots of hard red winter wheat are registered in Wichita, 4 were removed Wednesday and basis firmed 9 cents to 9 under. HRW bids were stronger at the Texas Gulf and off the PNW last week with spring wheat in the export market steady. That helped strengthen basis on the western Plains in most areas. Average basis strengthened three to five cents overall. Sorghum exports remain slow though Mexico has done some buying recently, filling the void in business to China a little. Sorghum basis was firm, though still at weak levels.

2 Total U.S. Grain Storage Capacity Used At Harvest 1% 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% % Percentage Of Storage Capacity Used At Harvest % 8% 6% 4% 2% %

3 $.46 $.45 $.44 $.43 $.42 $.41 $.4 $.39 Barge offers to ship corn, Illinois to Gulf, per bu. $.42 $.42 $.43 $.45 $.45 $.45 $.45 $.45 $.45 $.45 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 Cost/Bu. To Ship Corn Illinois River To Gulf $. 9/2/14 11/2/14 1/2/15 3/2/15 5/2/15 7/2/15 9/2/15 11/2/15 1/2/16 3/2/16 5/2/16 7/2/16 9/2/16 11/2/16 1/2/17 3/2/17 5/2/17 7/2/17 9/2/17 11/2/17 1/2/18 3/2/18 5/2/18 7/2/18 9/2/18 11/2/18

4 $.3 $.3 $.29 $.29 $.29 $.29 $.29 $.28 $.28 $.28 $.28 Cost per bushel to ship grain from St. Louis to Gulf $.28 $.28 $.29 $.3 $.3 $.3 $.28 $.28 $.28 $.28 Source: St. Louis Merchants Exchange Rail Fuel Surcharges (cents/car/mile) Current Average $.4 $.35 $.3 $.25 $.2 $.15 $.1 $.5 $. $.5 $.1 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Source: USDA

5 12, Baltic Dry Index 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, ,2. Barge Movements Through Lock & Dam 27 1, tons Corn Wheat Soybean 1, /26 4/26 7/26 1/26 1/26 4/26 7/26 1/26 1/26 4/26 7/26 1/26 1/26 4/26 7/26 1/26 1/26 4/26 7/26 1/26 1/26 4/26 7/26 1/26

6 Number of barges Grain Barges for Export in New Orleans Region Downbound Grain Barges Locks 27, 1, and 52 Grain Barges Unloaded in New Orleans 2 Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and GIPSA Number of Barges Upbound Empty Barges Locks 27 Lock 1 Locks 52 Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers -

7 Corn Basis Illinois River Corn Basis 2 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 9/1 11/1 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 Average (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) River System Corn Basis 9/7 1/7 11/7 12/7 1/7 2/7 3/7 4/7 5/7 6/7 7/7 8/7 Average

8 2 Eastern Corn Belt Corn Basis 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 9/7 11/7 1/7 3/7 5/7 7/7 Average Omaha Corn Basis - (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 9/6 11/6 1/6 3/6 5/6 7/6 Average

9 Western Corn Belt Corn Basis (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 9/7 11/7 1/7 3/7 5/7 7/7 Average Gulf Corn Basis 9/6 11/6 1/6 3/6 5/6 7/6 Average SOURCE: USDA, CBOT.

10 Soybean Basis Illinois River Soybean Basis 4 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) 9/1 11/1 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 Average Gulf Soybean Basis /6 11/6 1/6 3/6 5/6 7/ Average

11 Eastern Corn Belt Bean Basis 2 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 9/7 11/7 1/7 3/7 5/7 7/7 Average River System Bean Basis 4 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) 9/7 11/7 1/7 3/7 5/7 7/7 Average

12 Western Corn Belt Bean Basis (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (1) 9/7 11/7 1/7 3/7 5/7 7/7 Average North Central Iowa Soybean Basis (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) 9/6 11/6 1/6 3/6 5/6 7/6 Average SOURCE: USDA, CBOT.

13 Wheat Basis Louisiana Gulf Soft Red Wheat Basis 6/7 8/7 1/7 12/7 2/7 4/7 Average Toledo Soft Red Winter Wheat Basis /7 8/7 1/7 12/7 2/7 4/7 Average

14 Hard Red Wheat Belt Basis 4 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) 6/1 8/1 1/1 12/1 2/1 4/1 Average Minneapolis Spring Wheat Basis 4 2 (2) (4) 6/7 8/7 1/7 12/7 2/7 4/7 Average

15 Salina Wheat Basis (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) 6/1 8/1 1/1 12/1 2/1 4/1 Average Texas Gulf Hard Red Wheat Basis (2) (4) 6/7 8/7 1/7 12/7 2/7 4/7 Average

16 West Coast HRW Basis /7 8/7 1/7 12/7 2/7 4/7 Average PNW White Wheat Basis (2) 6/7 8/7 1/7 12/7 2/7 4/7 Average

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