2017 SC Producers Whole Farm Revenue Protection Expected Price Justification

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1 2017 SC Producers Whole Farm Revenue Protection Expected Price Justification RMA Projected Expected As of Average Futures Price Close As of RMA Projected Prices 4 Feb % Differ 4 Feb Crop Contract Type Yr Avg Projected Highest Month 2017 Corn NC CZ Projected Jan 5.18 Aug % 4.16 Corn SC (1) CU Projected Cotton CTZ Projected Jan 0.84 Apr % 0.78 Grain Sorghum (2) CZ*.97 Projected Peanuts Runners (3) Projected Peanuts Virginia (4) Projected Soybeans (5) SF Projected Jan Jul % Tobacco Projected Wheat WN Projected Jan 6.87 Jan % 4.59 (1) South Carolina producers typically use the December Corn Futures contract for pricing grain. Therefore, SC producers will utilize the CZ contract for projected revenue for (2) Expected price for Grain Sorghum is calculated as CZ *.97 (3) Current Runner Peanut contracts $475/ton in SC. (4) Current Virginia Peanut contracts $500/ton in SC (5) SC producers typically use the November Soybean Futures contract for pricing grain. Therefore, SC producers will utilize the SX contract for projected revenue for Crop insurance projected prices offer producers a unique ability to lock in higher future prices in between the time the projected price and harvest price are set. The crop insurance price is determined by using a day moving average of the daily close of the underlying futures contract. The theory is that producers should be willing to hedge or forward price whenever the futures price is greater than the projected price, because if futures continue to rally, the harvest price will also and the guaranteed revenue will increase. If futures price decline, the producer has locked in a higher price than CI guarantees. Given this fact, producers should utilize expected prices for WFRP that capture the historic volatility of commodity prices in corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. Since WFRP looks at the producers revenue for the five year period of , producers can apply similar volatility to their expected 2017 prices. The attached file summarizes the price activity for each crop during the lookback period. The data file contains the daily trading activity for each contract from 1986 through The attached files show the monthly average close for each crop during the calendar year. The Expected Commodity Price is calculated as follows: Expected Price = RMA projected price * ( Highest Month / Jan ) For Dec Corn this is the actual numbers: Expected Price = $3.92 * ( $5.50 [The month of August has the highest average monthly price from ] / $5.18 [Average of January closes for ]) = $3.92 * 1.06 = $4.16 SCOTT A. MICKEY FARM BUSINESS CONSULTANT PO Box 237 Sumter, SC smickey@clemson.edu 4 Feb 17

2 US Corn Supply and Use WASDE Ending Ending Stocks Low Average High 2010 CZ % 1,708 14,182 13,055 1,128 9% CZ % 1,128 13,516 12, % CZ % ,904 11, % CZ % ,686 13,454 1,232 9% CZ % 1,232 15,479 13,748 1,731 13% CZ % 1,731 15,415 13,630 1,785 13% CZ % 1,738 17,013 14,610 2,403 16% CZ % 2,355 16,474 14,585 1, % ,414 12,884 11,374 1,461 13% ,335 14,599 13,158 1,441 11% ,180 14,200 12,888 1,312 10%

3 US Soybean Supply and Use WASDE Ending Stocks Low Average High 2010 SX % 151 3,495 3, % SX % 215 3,325 3, % SX % 169 3,252 3, % SX % 141 3,570 3, % SX % 92 4,052 3, % SX % 191 4,140 3, % SX % 197 4,588 4, % SX % 420 4,445 4, % ,321 3, % ,775 3, % ,668 3, %

4 US Cotton Supply and Use WASDE Ending Ending Stocks Low Average High 2010 CTZ % % CTZ % % CTZ % % CTZ % % CTZ % % CTZ % % CTZ % % CTZ % % % % %

5 US Wheat Supply and Use WASDE Ending Stocks Low Average High Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2010 WN % 976 3,279 2, % WN % 862 2,974 2, % WN % 743 3,118 2, % WN % 718 3,026 2, % WN % 590 2,765 2, % WN % 752 2,927 1, % WN % 976 3,410 2,267 1,143 50% WN % 1,186 3,397 2,224 1, % Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul ,958 2, % ,071 2, % ,962 2, %

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