Rice Outlook Slide Show U.S. and World August 10, 2017

Transcription

1 Rice Outlook Slide Show U.S. and World August 10, 2017 Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service University of Arkansas System

2 World Rice USDA Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10,

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5 World Rice Area Harvested 1988/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr Million of Hectares 2017/18 world rice acreage at million hectares slightly below last month s 161.9, the highest on record Source: USDA 6

6 World Rice Yield (Rough) 1988/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb Apr Metric Tons World rice yield at 4.4 metric tons per hectare, below 2016/17 period s 4.5, but consistent with previous 6 periods Source: USDA 7

7 World Rice Rough Production 1988/ / Million of Metric Tons 450 World rice rough production at million metric tons is 1.8 million metric tons below 2016/17 and the 2 nd highest on record / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr 8 Source: USDA

8 World Rice Milled Production 1988/ / Million of Metric Tons World rice milled production is the 2 nd highest on record at million metric tons / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr 9 Source: USDA

9 World Rice Trade Year Exports Calendar 1988/ / Million of Metric Tons World trade at 43.9 million metric tons is the 3 nd highest on record, which in-part reflects global uncertainties / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 17 Apr Source: USDA 10

10 World Rice Total Use 1988/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec Feb 17 Apr Million of Metric Tons World rice total use at million metric tons is the 2 nd highest on record only exceeded by the previous marketing periods million tons Source: USDA 11

11 World Rice Production Country or Region 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Burma Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam No change August 10, 2017

12 World Rice Supply and Use 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons, milled Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks August 10, 2017

13 U.S. Long-Grain Rice USDA Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10,

14 The long grain rice season-average farm price range is $ $12.50 per cwt or $ $5.63 per bus 18

15 U.S. Long Grain Rice Planted Acres 1972/ /18 916,800 1,063,500 1,384,500 1,460,300 1,536,000 1,473,000 1,559,000 1,942,000 1,955,000 2,215,000 2,501,000 2,199,000 2,113,000 1,957,000 1,822,000 1,714,000 2,257,000 2,031,000 2,129,000 2,113,000 2,408,000 2,102,000 2,410,000 2,335,000 1,983,000 2,327,000 2,589,000 2,731,000 2,206,000 2,713,000 2,537,000 2,332,000 2,587,000 2,751,000 2,200,000 2,063,000 2,365,000 2,290,000 2,841,000 1,794,000 1,994,000 1,781,000 2,211,000 1,879,000 2,442,000 1,909,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , long grain rice planted acres estimated at 1,909,000 acres 22% below year average 2,044,400 acres 10 year average 2,150,600 acres 15 year average 2,229,267 acres Source: USDA 20

16 U.S. Long Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/ /18 60 Million hundredweight /18 long grain rice beginning stocks at 31.3 million cwt. Previous 5 year average was 22 million cwt. Previous 10 year average was 24 million cwt May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 22

17 U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/ / Million hundredweight /18 long grain rice production is estimated at million cwt 20.5% below 2016/17 5 year average 148 million cwt 10 year average 149 million cwt May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 23

18 250 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/ / Million hundredweight /18 long grain rice total supply is estimated at million cwt. 12-percent below 2016/17 5 year average 190 million cwt. 10 year average 191 million cwt May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 25

19 U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/ / Million hundredweight /18 long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 90 million cwt, 9 th largest on record 5 year average 95 million cwt. 10 year average 94.5 million cwt May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 26

20 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/ / Million hundredweight /18 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 77 million cwt, 1 million cwt. below last year 5 year average year average May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 27

21 U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/ / Million hundredweight /18 long grain rice total use is estimated at 167 million cwt. 11 million cwt below 2016/17 5 year average million cwt. 10 year average 167 million cwt May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 28

22 U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/ /18 60 Million hundredweight /18 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 17.7 million cwt percent below 2016/17, 2 nd lowest in the previous 13 marketing periods 5 year average 23 million cwt. 10 year average 24 million cwt May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 29

23 U.S. Medium & Short-Grain Rice USDA Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10,

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25 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Beginning Stocks 1982/ / Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 33

26 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Production 1982/ /18 80 Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 34

27 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/ / Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 36

28 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/ / Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 37

29 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/ / Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 38

30 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Total Use 1982/ /18 80 Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 39

31 U.S. Medium & Short Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/ / Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 Source: USDA 40

32 U.S. All Rice Supply and Demand Estimates Slide Show August 10,

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34 U.S. All Rice Planted Acres 1950/ /18 1,653,200 2,031,400 2,041,000 2,204,200 2,605,000 1,846,400 1,602,500 1,370,200 1,439,000 1,607,300 1,614,000 1,618,000 1,788,700 1,785,000 1,796,800 1,803,800 1,980,300 1,982,200 2,366,600 2,140,600 1,825,800 1,826,000 1,824,000 2,181,300 2,550,000 2,833,000 2,489,000 2,261,000 2,993,000 2,890,000 3,380,000 3,827,000 3,295,000 2,190,000 2,830,000 2,512,000 2,381,000 2,356,000 2,933,000 2,731,000 2,897,000 2,884,000 3,176,000 2,920,000 3,353,000 3,121,000 2,824,000 3,125,000 3,285,000 3,531,000 3,060,000 3,334,000 3,240,000 3,022,000 3,347,000 3,384,000 2,838,000 2,761,000 2,995,000 3,135,000 3,636,000 2,689,000 2,700,000 2,490,000 2,954,000 2,625,000 3,150,000 2,560, ,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500, Million acres 43

35 U.S. All Rice Yield 1950/ / ,371 2,309 2,413 2,447 2,517 3,061 3,152 3,204 3,164 3,382 3,423 3,411 3,726 3,968 4,098 4,255 4,322 4,537 4,425 4,318 4,617 4,718 4,700 4,275 4,440 4,558 4,663 4,412 4,484 4,599 4,413 4,819 4,710 4,598 4,9545,413 5,651 5,555 5,514 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,120 5,897 5,663 5,866 6,281 6,496 6,578 6,670 6,988 6,636 6,898 7,219 6,846 7,085 6,725 7,0677, ,694 7,576 7,472 7,237 7,513 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Pounds per acre 44

36 U.S. All Rice Beginning Stocks 1970/ / May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, Million hundredweight 45

37 U.S. All Rice Production 1970/ / May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, Million hundredweight 46

38 U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/ / May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, Million hundredweight 47

39 U.S. All Rice Total Supply 1970/ / May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, Million hundredweight 48

40 U.S. All Rice Total Domestic and Residual Use 1970/ / Million hundredweight May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, 17 49

41 U.S. All Rice Total Exports 1970/ / May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, Million hundredweight 50

42 U.S. All Rice Total Use 1970/ / May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, Million hundredweight 51

43 U.S. All Rice Ending Stocks 1970/ / May, 17 June, 17 July, 17 Aug, 17 Sept, 17 Oct, 17 Nov, 17 Dec, 17 Jan, 17 Feb, 17 Mar, 17 Apr, Million hundredweight 52

44 United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service August Crop Production Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch August 10, :00 P.M.

45 Contents Field Crops Fruit and Nuts Specialty Crops Corn Peaches Dry Beans Soybeans Apples Tobacco Cotton Pears Sugarbeets Wheat Grapes Sugarcane Oats Cranberries Hops Barley Summer Potatoes Sorghum Alfalfa & Other Hay Rice Peanuts USDA-NASS

46 Survey Overview Ag Yield Objective Yield Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Winter Wheat Sample Size 21,654 4,544 Collection Period July 29 Aug 4 July 25 Aug 1 USDA-NASS

47 August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Corn Planted Mil Ac 90.9 NC -3.3 Harvested Mil Ac 83.5 NC -3.7 Yield Bu/Ac NA -2.9 Production Bil Bu 14.2 NA -6.6 USDA-NASS

48 Billion Bushels 16.0 Corn for Grain Production United States USDA-NASS

49 Bushels per Acre Corn for Grain Yield United States Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS

50 USDA-NASS

51 Lbs/Ear Corn Objective Yield Region Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight Aug ,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 Ears Per Acre 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears USDA-NASS

52 August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Soybeans Planted Mil Ac 89.5 NC +7.3 Harvested Mil Ac 88.7 NC +7.2 Yield Bu/Ac 49.4 NA -5.2 Production Bil Bu 4.38 NA +1.7 USDA-NASS

53 Billion Bushels 5.00 Soybean Production United States USDA-NASS

54 Bushels per Acre 55.0 Soybean Yield United States Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS

55 USDA-NASS

56 August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season All Cotton Planted Mil Ac 12.1 NC Harvested Mil Ac 11.1 NA Yield Lb/Ac 892 NA +2.9 Production Mil Bls 20.5 NA USDA-NASS

57 Million Acres 18.0 All Cotton Acres United States Planted Harvested USDA-NASS

58 Million Bales 30.0 All Cotton Production United States USDA-NASS

59 Pounds peracre 950 All Cotton Yield United States Yield Linear (Yield) USDA-NASS

60 USDA-NASS

61 August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Winter Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 25.8 NC Yield Bu/Ac Production Bil Bu Other Spring Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 10.5 NC -7.1 Yield Bu/Ac Production Mil Bu Durum Wheat Harvested Mil Ac 1.86 NC Yield Bu/Ac Production Mil Bu All Wheat Production Bil Bu USDA-NASS

62 USDA-NASS

63 Grams/Head Wheat Objective Yield Region Heads Per Square Foot vs. Implied Head Weight 2004 Jul 17 Jun 17 Aug Heads Per Square Foot Implied Head Weight = Published Yield / (Heads*1.6006) USDA-NASS

64 USDA-NASS

65 August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Oats Mil Bu Barley Mil Bu Sorghum Mil Bu 369 NA Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 56.2 NA -3.6 Other Hay Mil Tons 76.4 NA -0.1 Rice Mil Cwt 186 NA Peanuts Bil Lbs 7.43 NA USDA-NASS

66 August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season All Tobacco Mil Lbs 695 NA Dry Beans Mil Cwt 34.2 NA Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.3 NA -1.5 Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.8 NA -0.9 Summer Potatoes Mil Cwt 20.2 NA +3.3 USDA-NASS

67 August 2017 Crop Production Crop Unit August 2017 % Change From Previous Estimate % Change From Previous Season Peaches Thou Tons 735 NA -7.6 Apples Bil Lbs 10.4 NA -7.4 Pears Thou Tons 707 NA -4.3 Grapes Mil Tons 7.51 NA -2.1 Hops Mil Lbs 97.6 NA Cranberries Mil Bbls 9.05 NA -6.0 USDA-NASS

68 Upcoming Reports Release Date August 25 August 30 August 31 September 1 September 12 Report Title Cattle on Feed Rice Stocks Agricultural Prices Citrus Fruits CAIR: Cotton CAIR: Fats & Oils CAIR: Grain Crushings Cotton Ginnings Crop Production USDA-NASS

69 USDA-NASS

70 United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At For Questions

71 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of August 10, 2017 Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service

72 Links to the latest WASDE related publications Office of the Chief Economist World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

73 World Wheat Production Country or Region 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Turkey Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India August 10, 2017

74 Central Volga Southern N. Caucasus August 10, 2017

75 Russia Central Volga 200% Ukraine 175% 150% Southern 100% 125% 150% N. Caucasus An active weather pattern brought beneficial spring rain to Russia s winter wheat areas. Winter Wheat August 10, 2017

76 Russia Central Volga Ukraine Southern Conversely, dry weather during July across southwestern Russia favored winter wheat drydown and harvesting. N. Caucasus Winter Wheat August 10, 2017

77 Urals Russia Volga Siberia Kazakhstan August 10, 2017

78 WMO CPC Volga 150% Urals 100% 80% Russia 100% 70% 100% Siberia 150% 100% Kazakhstan The 60 day rainfall map indicates most spring wheat areas received near to above normal rainfall since early June, ensuring favorable moisture supplies as crops progressed through reproduction. Spring Wheat August 10, 2017

79 Urals Russia Siberia Volga Kazakhstan The latest VHI depicts good to excellent conditions for Flowering (north) to Filling (south/east) spring wheat. Spring Wheat August 10, 2017

80 Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online Estimated production is increased from 72.0 to 77.5 mmt based on harvest reports from the winter wheat zone and higher estimated yield in the spring wheat zone Yield (T/Ha) Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

81 Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) Kazakhstan Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online Forecast wheat production is increased from 13.0 to 14.0 mmt based on NDVI based yield forecasts. Estimated area is down 7% from last year and yield is virtually unchanged Yield (T/Ha) Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

82 Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) Ukraine Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online Estimated production is increased from 24.0 to 26.5 mmt based on official harvest data Yield (T/Ha) Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

83 Canadian Prairies - Durum production Durum wheat crop calendar for most of Canada PLANT HEAD HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Agricultural Weather Assessments Durum production (% of *total) <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% * Average * SOURCE: Stats Canada World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

84 Canadian Prairies - Spring Wheat production Spring wheat crop calendar for most of Canada PLANT HEAD HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Agricultural Weather Assessments Spring Wheat production (% of *total) <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% * Average * SOURCE: Stats Canada World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

85 Canadian Prairies - Canola production Canola crop calendar for most of Canada PLANT FLOWER HARVEST JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Agricultural Weather Assessments Canola production (% of *total) <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-5% >5% * Average * SOURCE: Stats Canada World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

86 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

87 Wheat and Rapeseed fields in Southern Manitoba August 10, 2017

88 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board August 10, 2017

89 Flooded soybean field outside Ottawa, Ontario Based on conversations with farmers and industry experts in Canada, crops are 2 4 weeks behind schedule. August 10, 2017

90 World Wheat Supply and Use 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Million Tons Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Beginning stocks Production Total Supply , Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks August 10, 2017

91 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand 2016/ /18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July /17 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 976 1, Production 2,310 1, Imports Total supply 3,403 3, Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1,164 1, Exports 1, Total use 2,219 2, Ending stocks 1, Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / No change August 10, 2017

92 World Rice Production Country or Region 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Burma Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam No change August 10, 2017

93 World Rice Supply and Use 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons, milled Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks August 10, 2017

94 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice 2016/ /18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July /17 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) 7,237 7, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per cwt Average market price / No change August 10, 2017

95 World Corn Production Country or Region 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July /18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons World 1, , United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union Serbia FSU Ukraine Russia South Africa China India No change August 10, 2017

96 August 10, 2017

97 Better rainfall during reproduction than last year. August 10, 2017

98 Corn area has shown a downward trend in recent years, particularly in the Northeast, as policy changes in government support have forced farmers to switch to alternative profitable crops such as soybeans, peanuts, rice, potatoes, and silage August 10, 2017

99 August 10, 2017

100 China Corn Area and Yield Area (Million hectares) Area Yield Yield trend Yield (MT per hectare) August 10, 2017

101 August 10, 2017

102 12.0 Despite drier than normal weather overall, two occurrences of timely rain in July coincident with tassel and silk boosted corn yield prospects. 30y Avg Planting Tassel/Silk August 10, 2017

103 Major Corn Areas The current VHI shows mostly good to excellent conditions for Ukraine corn as it approaches grain fill. Corn GIS Crop data courtesy of SAGE/Univ Wisc. August 10, 2017

104 Ukraine Corn: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production Source: USDA PSD Online Area (MHa) and Production (MMT) Area (MHa) and Yield (T/Ha) Forecast production is unchanged at 28.5 mmt. Harvested area Output Yield August 10, 2017

105 World Corn Supply and Use 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Million Tons Beginning stocks Production 1, , Total Supply 1, , Feed use Total use 1, , Trade Ending Stocks August 10, 2017

106 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand 2016/ /18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July /17 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 1,737 2, Production 15,148 14, Imports Total supply 16,940 16, Feed and residual 5,425 5, Food, seed, and industrial 6,920 7, Ethanol 5,450 5, Domestic use 12,345 12, Exports 2,225 1, Total use 14,570 14, Ending stocks 2,370 2,273 Percent Stocks to use ratio Average market price 3.30/3.40 Dollars per bushel 2.90/ No change August 10, 2017

107 World Soybean Production Country or Region -- No change 2016/17 estimate 2017/18 forecast Change from July 12 Million Tons Change from 2016/17 World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Canada India China August 10, 2017

108 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2016/ /17 change 2017/ /18 change Change from estimate from July 12 forecast from July /17 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 4, , Imports Total supply 4, , Crush 1, , Seed and residual Domestic use 2, , Exports 2, , Total use 4, , Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Average market price Dollars per bushel 8.45/ No change August 10, 2017

109 World Cotton Production 2016/ /18 Change from Change from Country or Region estimate forecast July /17 Million Bales World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone No change August 10, 2017

110 August 10, 2017

111 VHI also indicates good growing conditions. August 10, 2017

112 China Cotton Area and Yield Area (Million hectares) Area Yield Yield trend Yield (MT per hectare) August 10, 2017

113 World Cotton Supply and Use 2016/ /18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July /17 Million Bales Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Consumption Trade Ending Stocks Addendum: China Ending Stocks No change August 10, 2017

114 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand 2016/ /18 Change from Change from estimate forecast July /17 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Million bales Beginning stocks Imports Production Total supply Mill use Exports Total use Unaccounted Ending stocks Percent Stocks/use 15.4 Average market price No change Cents per pound 55.0/ August 10, 2017

115 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand 2016/ /17 change 2017/ /18 change Change from estimate from July 12 forecast from July /17 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks 2, , Production 8, , Beets 4, , Cane 3, , Imports 3, , TRQ 1, , Re-export Mexico 1, , High-tier Total Supply 14, , Exports Domestic deliveries 12, , Total use 12, , Ending stocks 1, , Percent Stocks/use ratio No change August 10, 2017

116 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand 2016/ /17 change 2017/ /18 change Change from estimate from July 12 forecast from July /17 Thousand MT Beginning stocks 1, Production 5, , Imports Total Supply 7, , Domestic use 4, , Exports 1, , Total Use 6, , Ending stocks No change August 10, 2017

117 U.S. Meat Production and Prices 2017 forecast 2017 change from July forecast 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Production Billion pounds Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Steers Dollars/cwt Hogs Broilers Cents/lb Turkey No change August 10, 2017

118 -- No change U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds 2017 forecast 2017 change from July forecast 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Exports Beef 2, , Pork 5, , Broilers 6, , Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 16, , Imports Beef 2, , August 10, 2017

119 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand 2017 forecast 2017 change from July forecast 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Billion pounds Production Fat Basis Imports Commercial use Exports Skim-solid Basis Imports Commercial use Exports August 10, 2017

120 U.S. Dairy Product Prices Product prices 2017 forecast 2017 change from July forecast Dollars/pound 2018 change from July 12 Change from 2017 Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Dollars/cwt Class III Class IV All milk No change August 10, 2017

121 U.S. Production Summary 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July /18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 2, , Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 15, , Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 4, , Soybean oil (Million lbs) 21, , Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 44, , ,714 Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8, , Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat -- No change August 10, 2017

122 Domestic Demand Summary 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July /18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) 1, , Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 12, , Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 2, , Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19, , Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 33, , ,150 Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12, , Milk (Billion lbs, fat basis) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey No Total change meat August 10, 2017

123 U.S. Export Summary Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July /18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 1, Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) 2, , Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) 2, , Soybean oil (Million lbs) 2, , Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11, , Cotton (Million bales) Meat (Million lbs) Beef 2, , Pork 5, , Broilers 6, , Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 16, , No change August 10, 2017

124 Price Summary 2016/17 estimate 2016/17 change from July /18 forecast 2017/18 change from July 12 Change from 2016/17 Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt) No change August 10, 2017