2019 Grain Update December 4, 2018

Transcription

1 2019 Grain Update December 4, 2018

2 Orange Juice (Jan '19) Live Cattle (Dec '18) S&P 500 E-Mini (Dec '18) Dow Indu 30 E-Mini (Dec '18) Cotton #2 (Dec '18) U.S. Dollar Index (Dec '18) Wheat (Dec '18) Nasdaq 100 E-Mini (Dec '18) Oats (Dec '18) Natural Gas (Jan '19) 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%

3 Bitcoin CME Futures (Dec '18) Lumber (Jan '19) High Grade Copper (Dec '18) Soybean Oil (Dec '18) Ethanol Futures (Dec '18) Crude Oil WTI (Jan '19) Lean Hogs (Dec '18) Soybeans (Jan '19) Gold (Dec '18) Spring Wheat (Dec '18) Canadian Dollar (Dec '18) Corn (Dec '18) Soybean Meal (Dec '18) Canola (Jan '19) Hard Red Wheat (Dec '18) Feeder Cattle (Jan '19) % % % % % % -5.00% 0.00%

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9 CANOLA

10 Canola s Issues Canada's 2018 harvest season did not go well Stats Canada production estimate at 20.8 MMT vs MMT in Sept and 21.3 MMT last year Price drop due to good US crop and soybean tariff issues Acres likely see increase in 2019

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16 Canola Mar 19

17 Canola Nov 19

18 WHEAT

19 Wheat s Issues US Exports disappointing but improving, Black Sea dominating World production issues in all major exporting countries: Argentina getting rain during harvest, Australia dry, EU dry, Canada winter came early with good production poor quality 2019 winter wheat acres expected to increase 10 to 15%, but cold wet fall and delayed harvest likely results in 10% acreage decrease Where are spring wheat acres headed

20 Wheat Category 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 EST Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Per Acre (Bu.) Supply Beginning Stocks ,181 1, Production 2,499 2,218 2,207 1,999 2,252 2,135 2,026 2,062 2,309 1,740 1,884 2,060 Imports Total Supply 2,932 2,993 3,279 2,974 3,118 3,026 2,768 2,927 3,402 3,078 3,123 3,139 Use Food Seed Feed and Residual Exports 1, ,289 1,051 1,012 1, , ,025 1,050 Total Use 2,275 2,018 2,417 2,231 2,400 2,436 2,015 1,951 2,222 1,979 2,174 2,213 Ending Stocks Total Ending Stock ,181 1, Stocks/Use Ratio Average Price

21 Wheat Acres /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 Planted Acres Harvested Acres

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25 3,000 2,500 2,000 2,499 2,275 2,218 2,207 2,018 2,417 1,999 2,231 2,252 2,400 2,436 2,135 2,026 2,015 2,062 1,951 2,309 2,222 1,979 1,884 2,174 Production Total Use Total Ending Stocks Linear ( Production) 2,060 2,213 1,740 1,500 1,181 1,099 1, /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

26 1,415 1,315 1,289 1,215 1,176 1,115 1, , ,051 1,051 1, ,025 1, Food 615 Seed Feed and Residual 515 Exports /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

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30 National Wheat Price Date

31 World Wheat Production of Major Exporting Countries 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 Million Bu 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Year

32 Major Exporting Countries Ending Stocks/Price 3, , , ,000 5 BB 1,500 4 Price 3 1, Year

33 Major Exporting Countries Days of Supply/Wheat Days of Supply Avg Year Price Date

34 WW Conditions Nov 2017 Nov 2018 Change Kansas 51% 46% -5% Oklahoma 30% 56% 26% Texas 36% 48% 12% Colorado 66% 54% -12% Montana 33% 80% 47% US 56% 55% -1%

35 Wheat s Issues

36 Mpls Mar 19

37 Mpls Sept 19

38 CORN

39 Corn s Issues 2018 interesting year, acres decline slightly, tough planting season, fast warm up in most regions but some remain too wet, end result, another potential large production year But harvest has been a fun one: as of Nov 25-6% left to harvest in US, or 5.3 million acres or 950 MB Likely acres will get harvested but yield likely will see decline Look for USDA to lower production in Dec report, demand should remain steady

40 Corn EST Category 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Per Acre (Bu.) Supply Beginning Stocks 1,624 1,673 1,708 1, ,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,736 Production 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,626 14,930 Imports Total Supply 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,816 16,716 Use Feed and Residual 5,182 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,315 5,040 5,280 5,114 5,470 5,298 5,500 5,575 Food, Seed, Ind. 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,397 1,369 1,401 1,424 1,453 1,453 1,480 1,490 Ethanol 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,650 5,700 Exports 1,849 1,980 1,834 1, ,920 1,867 1,901 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,425 Total Use 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,793 15,080 15,190 Ending Stocks Total Ending Stock 1,673 1,708 1, ,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,736 1,526 Stocks/Use Ratio Average Price

41 Planted Acres Harvested Acres /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

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45 14,000 12,000 Production Total Use Total Ending Stocks 13,066 13,092 12,092 12,056 13,055 12,447 12,360 12,528 11,083 10,755 13,829 13,454 14,216 13,748 13,664 13,602 15,148 14,649 14,793 15,080 14,930 15,190 14,604 14,626 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1,673 1,708 1, ,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,736 1, /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

46 6,000 5,000 5,182 5,125 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,795 4,557 4,641 5,124 5,040 5,280 5,200 5,224 5,114 5,432 5,470 5,605 5,650 5,700 5,575 5,500 5,298 4,315 4,000 3,000 3,709 Feed and Residual Food, Seed, Ind. Ethanol Exports 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,425 2,000 1,980 1,849 1,920 1,834 1,867 1,901 1,543 1,316 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,397 1,369 1,401 1,424 1,453 1,453 1,480 1,490 1, /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

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51 National Corn Price Price Date

52 US Corn S/U Days Supply Date

53 World Corn S/U Days Supply Date

54 Corn Mar 19

55 Corn Dec 19

56 SOYBEAN

57 Soybean s Issues 2018 saw increase in acreage and what appeared to a record setting production year but soybean s world was flipped upside down in early spring with the announcement of tariffs on China SA production ended with Brazil at record while Argentina dropped 30% To add insult, winter showed up in Oct in US As of Nov 25, 6% of soybeans still in field, or 5.3 million acres, or 275 MB, an these acres might not get harvested Million dollar question what happens in 2019

58 Soybeans Category 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 EST Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Per Acre (Bu.) Supply Beginning Stocks Production 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,411 4,600 4,090 Imports Total Supply 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,734 5,063 5,070 Use Crush 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,080 2,075 Exports 1,279 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,317 1,638 1,842 1,942 2,166 2,129 1,900 2,075 Seed and Feed Residual Total Use 3,047 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,296 4,107 4,277 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio Average Price

59 100.0 Planted Acres 90.0 Harvested Acres /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

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64 4,600 4,500 4,000 3,927 3,926 3,944 3,862 4,296 4,214 4,411 4,296 4,107 4,090 4,277 3,500 3,000 3,047 2,967 3,359 3,361 3,329 3,280 3,155 3,094 3,111 3,042 3,478 3,358 2,500 2,000 Production Total Use Ending Stocks 1,500 1, /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

65 2,475 2,166 2,129 2,055 2,080 2,075 1,975 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,638 1,942 1,873 1,886 1,901 1,842 1,900 1,499 1,501 1,475 1,279 1,365 1,317 Crush Exports Seed and Feed 975 Residual /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20

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72 Soybean Issues

73 US Soybean Price Price Date

74 US Soybean S/U Days Date

75 World Prod'n Ending Stocks World Soybean Production/Ending Stocks 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Million Bu 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Year

76 World Soybean S/U Days Date

77 Soybean Mar 19

78 Soybean Nov 19

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83 Any Questions? Martinson Ag Risk Management 1555 S 43 rd St, Suite 105A Fargo, ND Randy Martinson randy@martinsonag.com Cell: Office Phone: