Groundnut Forum. 18 February Nico Hawkins General Manager
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1 Groundnut Forum 18 February 2016 Nico Hawkins General Manager
2 Supply & Demand (National vs. International) SAGIS Grain SA International (USDA) Marketing year Final Projection Estimate Projection Mar - Feb 2014/ / / /16 '000t '000t Mil ton Mil ton Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (RSA) 58.5 (b) 62.7 (b) Exports Closing stocks 25.1 (a) 17.3 (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. Sources: SAGIS: 26 Jan '16, USDA: 3 Feb '16, Grain SA: 27 Jan '16
3 Production & Producer deliveries Crop estimates vs. producer deliveries 2015/ / /14 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries ** Difference * CEC Final crop ** SAGIS Progr. Mar - Dec '15
4 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Progr. 15/16 Est. Production & Producer deliveries CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Ton GROUNDNUTS: CEC Est, Ha, Yield vs SAGIS Deliveries Crop Estimate SAGIS Prod. Del. CEC Ha CEC Yield Grain SA Yield
5 Imports & Exports Summarised info Marketing year Groundnuts Imports Exports Ton 2013/ / *2015/ *Progr. 2015/16: Mar - Dec '15 Source: SAGIS
6 Imports & Exports Imports for RSA 2015/16 season Groundnuts: Imports for RSA: 2015/16 Month Argentinia Botswana Malawi Mozambique Zambia Unknown Month Total Progr Total Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Source: SAGIS
7 Imports & Exports Exports for RSA 2015/16 season Groundnuts: RSA Exports: 2015/16 Month Japan New Zealand Botswana Mosambique Netherland Swaziland Zimbabwe Unknown Month Total Progr. Total Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Total Source: SAGIS
8 Imports & Exports per marketing season GROUNDNUTS: RSA IMPORTS & EXPORTS Exports Imports Grain SA /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Progr. 15/16 Est.
9 Groundnuts: Consumption Processed Groundnuts 2015/16 * 2014/15 ** Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Direct Edible Market Peanut Butter Crushed oil & cake Pods * 2015/16: 1 Mar '15-31 Dec '15 Source: SAGIS ** 2014/15: 1 Mar '14-31 Dec '14
10 Groundnuts: Consumption GROUNDNUTS: PROCESSED Edible market Peanut butter Crushed Grain SA /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Progr. 15/16 Est.
11 Opening & Ending Stocks GROUNDNUTS: OPENING & ENDING STOCK Opening Stock Ending stock Grain SA /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Progr. 15/16 Est.
12 2015/16 Marketing Year Supply & Demand GROUNDNUTS: 2015/16 MARKETING YEAR (Progressive: 1 Mar - 31 Dec '15) Grain SA CEC Estimate Deliveries Processed Imports Exports
13 1997/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/01 Price movements USA Groundnuts prices USA Groundnut prices -US Runners 40/50 cif Rotterdam (shelled)- Source: Oilworld
14 Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices Argentine USA 2016/02/09 Raw Runners Raw Runners 40/50 40/50 Mar 16 Mar 16 $/t $/t International FOB value Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of FOB) Cost, Insurance and Freight R/$ Exchange rate on: 2016/02/ Converted to: R/t R/t Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing Discharging cost - Durban Import tariff Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Source: International Grains Council: Grain Market Report
15 Price movements Indicative Export Parity Prices Argentine Raw 2016/02/11 Runner 40/50 Mar '16 FOB Gulf value ($/t) Difference in quality and locality of SA: Groundnuts: Less 3.5% of fob value 96.5% SA fob price ($/t) Exchange rate (1$=): (2016/02/09) FOB Gulf value (R/t) Marketing costs: Financing (Prime rate 10.25% - 30 days)(r/t) Loading costs: (R/t) Durban Harbour (mainly spout method) Export realisation (R/t): Durban Harbour * * Railage excluded Source: International Grains Council: Grain Market Report
16 SARS: FOB Prices Imports Imports Shelled Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value 2015/ / /14 All years Mar - Nov Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
17 SARS: FOB Prices Imports per country Imports: Tariff Line Groundnuts - Shelled - whether or not broken Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Argentina Brazil China Namibia Malawi South Africa Mozambique Zambia Source: SARS
18 SARS: FOB Prices Exports Exports Shelled Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value 2015/ / /14 All years Mar - Nov Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
19 SARS: FOB Prices Exports per country Exports: Tariff Line Groundnuts - Shelled - whe Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Mozambique Zimbabwe Japan Netherlands Belgium Zambia New Zealand China Swaziland Indonesia United Kingdom Norway Botswana Singapore Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Egypt Finland Philippines Seychelles Mauritius Namibia Ghana Malawi Saint Helena Germany Source: SARS
20 SARS Imports of various products Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB Value 2015/ / / Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS Peanut butter All years Mar - Nov
21 SARS Imports of various products Prepared Groundnuts Roasted Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB Value 2015/ / / Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS All years Mar - Nov
22 SARS Imports of various products Prepared Groundnuts Other Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB Value 2015/ / / Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS All years Mar - Nov
23 Price movements Products: year on year price changes Price % Year Price % Year Price % Year R on Year R on Year R on Year Brick Margarine 500g Peanut Butter 400g Sunflower Oil 750ml Source: SA Statistics January
24 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 Rand Groundnut: Price movements Products: prices Sunflower oil 750ml Margarine Brick 500g Peanut butter 400g PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS
25 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 % Groundnut: Price movements Products Index Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr Margarine Brick 500 gr OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX
26 Groundnut: Co-workers Groundnuts: Firms registered Traders 36 Storers 3 Harbour silo owners 6 Processors 37 Total firms: 82
27 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase Chairperson Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson Groundnuts Industry is represented by: Mr Gerhard Scholtemeijer Mr Jaco Minnaar Mr De Wet Boshoff (Alternate)
28 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil all commitments: Groundnut Forum Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff
29 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations Thank you
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