Global Monthly March 2019

Transcription

1 Global Monthly March 19 Percent of world bonds outstanding Jan-1 Jun-1 Nov-1 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-1 Jul-1 Dec-1 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Mar-19

2 March 19 Percent, year-on-year Q1 1Q 1Q3 1Q GDP Industrial production 1Q1 1Q 1Q3 1Q 1Q1 1Q 1Q3 1Q World Advanced economies EMDEs Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year 3. Oil price change (RHS) Inflation Percent, year-on-year Index, 5+=expansion Goods trade Container shipping New export orders (RHS) Jan-1 Jun-1 Nov-1 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-1 Jul-1 Nov-1 Feb

3 March 19 Percent Spread (RHS) United States Germany Basis points Index, =January 3, 17 Basis points Stock index Bond spreads (RHS) Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Mar US$, billions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3

4 March 19 US$/bbl, nominal Index, =January 1, 19 Crude oil average 7 Base metals index (RHS) 1 Agriculture index (RHS) Feb-19 Mar-19 Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year 3 Real wages 3.5 Nominal wages (RHS) Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb Percent, year-on-year Index, 5+=expansion Industrial production Manufacturing PMI (RHS) 5 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-1 Sep-1 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-1 Oct-1 Mar-19

5 March 19 Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year 1 Lending 1 Investment (RHS) Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Feb-19 Index, 5+=expansion, 3-month moving average Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-17 Commodity exporters Commodity importers May-17 Sep-17 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Feb-19 Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year GDP Industrial production (RHS) Q1 1Q 1Q3 1Q 1Q1 1Q 1Q3 1Q -5 - Turkey Excluding Turkey and China 5

6 March 19 U.S. dollars per worker, thousands 1 Formal firms Informal firms Percent 5 3 Manager with higher education Single-employee firm Log productivity differential year 1 years empl. empl. Cap. city Firm age Firm size Firm location Other 1 year years Manager experience

7 March 19 Log productivity differential Maximum informal competition Average informal competition Log productivity differential Highest GDP per capita Lowest GDP per capita Log productivity differential 1.. Highest quartile Lowest quartile.... Control of corruption Ease of Doing Business Business Freedom 7

8 March 19 (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) Recent releases: February, 1 - March 7, 19 Upcoming releases: March, 19 - April 7, 19 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Brazil //19 GDP Q 1.1 % 1.3 % Japan 3//19 IP FEB.3 % France //19 GDP Q.9% 1.3% South Korea 3//19 IP FEB.1 % India //19 GDP Q. % 7.% Italy 3/9/19 CPI MAR 1. % Indonesia //19 CPI FEB. %. % Indonesia /1/19 CPI MAR. % United States //19 GDP Q 3.1 % 3. % Brazil //19 IP FEB -. % Turkey 3//19 CPI FEB 19.7%.% Turkey /3/19 CPI MAR 19.7% South Korea 3//19 GDP Q1 3.1%.% Germany /5/19 IP FEB -3.3 % Australia 3/5/19 GDP Q.3 %. % Mexico /9/19 CPI MAR 3.9% Italy 3/5/19 GDP Q. %.% France //19 IP FEB 1.7 % South Africa 3/5/19 GDP Q 1.1% 1.3% Italy //19 IP MAR -. % Euro Area 3/7/19 GDP Q 1.1 % 1.% United Kingdom //19 IP FEB -.9 % Japan 3/7/19 GDP Q.3%.% United States //19 CPI MAR 1.5 % Turkey 3/11/19 GDP Q -3.% 1.% France /11/19 CPI MAR 1.3 % China 3/13/19 IP JAN 5.3 % 5.% Germany /11/19 CPI MAR 1.% Mexico 3/13/19 IP JAN -.9 % -.5 % India /1/19 IP FEB 1.7 % United States 3/15/19 CPI FEB 1.5% 1.5% China /15/19 GDP Q1. % South Africa 3//19 CPI FEB.1 % 3.9% Canada /17/19 CPI MAR 1.5 % United Kingdom 3//19 CPI FEB 1.9 % 1. % Euro Area /17/19 CPI MAR 1.% Japan 3/1/19 CPI FEB. %. % South Africa /17/19 CPI MAR.1 % Canada 3//19 CPI FEB 1.5 % 1. % United Kingdom /17/19 CPI MAR 1.9 % France 3//19 GDP Q 1.% 1.% Australia /3/19 CPI Q1 1. %

9 March 19 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

10 March 19 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective ECB repo US$ LIBOR 3-months EURIBOR 3-months US -yr Treasury yield German Bund, yr Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets Asia Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East Africa Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) Advanced Economies ($ Index) United States (S&P 5) Europe (S&P Euro 35) Japan (Nikkei 5) Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) EM Asia EM Europe EM Europe & Middle East EM Latin America & Caribbean Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area Japan Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil China Egypt India Russia South Africa Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index)