PNS Soybean Workgroup
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1 PNS Soybean Workgroup 12 April 2016 Nico Hawkins General Manager
2 Supply & Demand (National vs. International) Soybean: Supply and dem and (RSA vs International) SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Marketing year Final: Projection: Mar - Feb 2015/16 (c) Projection: 2016/17 (c) 2014/15 (d) 2015/16 (d) '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b) (b) Exports Closing stocks 90.0 (a) 59.1 (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Excluding producer withdrawals, seed and end users (c) Source: SAGIS 29 Mar '16 & NAMC: S&DEC - 1 Apr '16 (d) Source: USDA - 7 Apr '16
3 Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries RSA Production vs Deliveries Soybean 2015/ /15 Ton Ton CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries Difference * CEC Third Forecast 2016/17 Ton
4 Production & Producer deliveries CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Ton SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est, Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries Yield SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj. 0.00
5 Imports & Exports Summarised info Soybean Marketing year Import Export Ton 2013/ / *2015/ Source: SAGIS
6 Imports & Exports Soybeans: Imports for RSA 2015/16 season Month Brazil Ethiopia Malawi Paraguay Zambia Month Total Progressive Total Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb TOTAL 2015/ Source: SAGIS Ton
7 Imports & Exports Soybeans: Exports for RSA 2015/16 season Month Botwana Mozambique Month Total Progressive Total Ton Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb TOTAL 2015/ Source: SAGIS
8 Imports & Exports per marketing year Ton SOYBEANS: Imports & Exports Imports Exports Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj.
9 Imports & Exports per marketing year S&DEC: Soybeans Imported 2015/ S&DEC: Soybeans Imported 2015/ Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
10 Imports & Exports SARS Imports to RSA 2015/16 season Imports Tariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Botswana Brazil Canada China Ethiopia Hong Kong India Japan Malawi Netherlands Paraguay Swaziland Taiwan, Prov of China Tanzania Thailand Uganda United Kingdom Zambia Total Source: SARS
11 Imports & Exports SARS Exports from RSA 2015/16 season Exports Tariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Angola Botswana Congo, Dem Rep Of Ghana Kenya Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Nigeria Namibia Saint Helena Swaziland Togo Zambia Zimbabwe Total Source: SARS
12 Processed & Consumption Processed Soybeans Processed 2015/16 * 2014/15 ** Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake Source: SAGIS
13 Processed & Consumption S&DEC: Processed Soybeans: Processed 2015/ Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
14 Processed & Consumption S&DEC: Crushed Soybeans: Crushed 2015/ Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
15 Processed & Consumption S&DEC: Animal Feed S&DEC: Soybeans Animal Feed 2015/ Final March Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
16 Consumption Ton SOYBEANS: Processed Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake) Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj.
17 Opening & Ending Stocks Ton SOYBEANS: Stock Opening stock Ending Stock Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Proj.
18 Opening & Ending Stocks SOYBEANS: 2015/16 Season - Mar 2015 to Feb CEC (Crop Estimate) Prod deliveries Imports Processed* Exports
19 Price Movements Soybeans: Local prices (SAFEX) SAFEX: Latest prices vs previous prices: Soybeans Future prices for: 2016/04/ /03/ /04/07 Price % Month Price % Year Price R/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton May Jul Source: SAFEX
20 Price movements Indicative import parity prices Soybeans: Im port Parity Price Argentinia 2016/04/05 Soybeans Up River $/t FOB value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.01 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: R/t Exhange R/$ Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delievered: Durban - Randfontein (2015/04/07) Source: IGC - Grain Market Report
21 Price movements International prices (CBOT) CBOT: Latest Soybean prices vs previous prices Contract: 2016/04/ /03/ /04/07 Price % Month Price % Year Price $/Ton on Month $/Ton on Year $/Ton May ' July ' Source: CBOT
22 Price Movements SARS FOB prices SOYBEAN OILCAKE Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB R' / / /14 All years Mar '15 - Jan ' Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEAN OILCAKE Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) FOB R' / / /14 All years Mar '15 - Jan ' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
23 Price Movements SARS FOB prices SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB R' / / /14 All years Mar '15 - Jan ' Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) FOB R' / / /14 All years Mar '15 - Jan ' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
24 Price Movements SARS FOB prices SOYBEANS OIL OTHER Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB R' / / /14 All years Mar '15 - Jan ' Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEANS OIL OTHER Exports Total value of exports Quantity (Ton) FOB R' / / /14 All years Mar '15 - Jan ' Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
25 Price Movements Products: Year on year price changes February Price % Year Price % Year Price % Year R on Year R on Year R on Year Brick Margarine 500g Peanut Butter 400g Sunflow er Oil 750ml Source: SA Statistics
26 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Rand Price Movements Products: prices Sunflower oil 750ml Margarine Brick 500g Peanut butter 400g PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS
27 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 % Price Movements Products: Index Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr Margarine Brick 500 gr OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX
28 Soybean: Co-workers Soybeans: Firms registered with SAGIS Traders % Storers % Harbour silo owners % Processors % Total firms: 109 Composition of co-workers - On 28 February Storers 37 Harboursilo Ow ners 16 Traders 76 Processors 499 Total: 628
29 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations Thank you
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Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 2,038 2,922 4,089 4,349 6,256 7,124 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 9,107
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