Major Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates and Projections

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1 INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE 1629 K Street NW, Suite 702, Washington, DC USA Telephone (202) Fax (202) secretariat@icac.org COTTON THIS MONTH April 1, 2016 Major Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates and Projections India 2015/16: production 5.9 million tons (-105,000 tons from last month) 2015/16: exports 1.2 million tons (+85,000 tons from last month) 2016/17: imports 228,000 tons (-39,000 tons from last month) 2016/17: exports 1 million tons (-58,000 tons from last month) World Cotton Supply and Demand 2014/15 Million Tons Change/Month Million Tons Change/Month Million Tons Change/Month BEGINNING STOCKS PRODUCTION SUPPLY CONSUMPTION EXPORTS ENDING STOCKS ICAC Price Projections Season-average Cotlook A Index (U.S. cents per pound). 2015/ /17 Projection Previous Month Projection This Month Range Midpoint Range Midpoint 2015/16* /17** *The price projection for 2015/16 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-china in 2013/14 (estimate), in 2014/15 (estimate) and in 2015/16 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2014/15 (estimate) and 2015/16 (projection). The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 66 cts/lb to 76 cts/lb. **The price projection for 2016/17 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-china in 2014/15 (estimate), and in 2016/17 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2015/16 (projection) and 2016/17 (projection); and on the price projection of 2015/16. The price projection is the mid-point of the 95% confidence interval: 58 cts/lb to 89 cts/lb.

2 INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE 1629 K Street NW, Suite 702, Washington, DC USA Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) secretariat@icac.org Internet: COTTON THIS MONTH From the Secretariat of the ICAC April 1, 2016 Cotton Production to Recover in 2016/17 While Consumption Remains Stable Cotton planting in the Northern Hemisphere countries commences this month. In 2016/17, world cotton area may expand by 1% to 31.3 million hectares, though well-below the record of 36.2 million hectares reached in 2011/12. From December 2015 through February 2016, international cotton prices as measured the Cotlook A Index averaged 69 cents/lb, which is the same level as a year ago. However, prices for competing crops during the same period have fallen, making cotton more competitive this year compared to last. World cotton production in 2016/17 is projected to increase by 4% to just under 23 million tons as the world average yield is anticipated to improve by 4% to 732 kg/ha. In 2016/17, India s area is forecast up 4% to 12.4 million hectares due to improved domestic cotton prices in 2015/16 from continued government support and strong demand. Assuming yield is similar to the 4-year average of 522 kg/ha, production could reach 6.5 million tons in 2016/17. On March 18, the Chinese government announced it was lowering the target price for Xinjiang, China s largest cotton-producing province, to yuan/ton from yuan/ton in 2015 and yuan/ton in As a result, area is likely to contract by 10% to 3.1 million hectares and production to decrease by 10% to 4.6 million tons. Cotton area in the United States is projected to increase by 2% to 3.3 million hectares and production by 9% to 3.1 million tons. In 2015/16, cotton production plummeted in Pakistan due to adverse weather, pest outbreaks and lower quality inputs resulting in the lowest average yield on record since 1998/99. In 2016/17, cotton area in Pakistan may expand by 3% to nearly 3 million hectares, and production is expected to jump 35% to 2.1 million tons as yields recover. After declining by 2% in 2015/16, world cotton consumption is anticipated to remain stable at 23.9 million tons. Consumption in China, the world s largest consumer of cotton, is projected to decrease by 5% to 6.8 million tons. Higher wages and domestic cotton prices, particularly in comparison with polyester prices, have made cotton spinning less attractive with yarn imports from lower cost countries like Vietnam filling in the gap. In 2016/17, Vietnam s cotton consumption is forecast to rise 16% to 1.3 million tons, making it the fifth largest consumer. Consumption in Bangladesh, the sixth largest, could increase by 10% to 1.2 million tons. After several seasons of growth, cotton mill use in India and Pakistan contracted in 2015/16 due to weaker demand. However, India s consumption is projected to rise 4% to 5.5 million tons in 2016/17 while in Pakistan it may increase by 1% to 2.2 million tons. After declining by 3% in 2015/16, world cotton trade is expected to recover 1% to 7.5 million tons in 2016/17 as consumption grows in import dependent countries and production rebounds in major exporting countries. Vietnam and Bangladesh are likely to be the two largest importers of cotton in 2016/17 with import volumes expected to rise by 25% to 1.4 million tons and by 5% to 1.1 million tons, respectively. China, once the world s largest importer of cotton could see imports fall 13% to 936,000 tons as the government continues to restrict import quotas. Exports from the world s largest exporter, the United States, are projected to increase by 1% to 2.2 million tons. However, exports from India, the second largest, are forecast to decline by 13% to 1 million tons as expanding mill use makes less cotton available for export. In 2015/16, world ending stocks are expected to shrink 8% to 20.3 million tons. The growth in cotton production while cotton consumption remains stable means that the reduction in world ending stocks in 2016/17 will likely be smaller and is projected to fall by 5% to 19.4 million tons. Assuming that sales from the Reserve are successful, China s ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 7% to 12 million tons by the end of 2015/16 and by 10% to 10.9 million tons by the end of 2016/17. Published at the start of each month by the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee, 1629 K Street NW, Suite 702, Washington, DC Copyright ICAC Telephone: ; Fax: ; secretariat@icac.org. No reproduction is permitted in whole or part without the express consent of the Secretariat.

3 ICAC SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION OF COTTON April 1, 2016 Seasons begin on August / / / / / /17 Est. Est. Proj. Proj. Million Metric Tons BEGINNING STOCKS WORLD TOTAL CHINA USA PRODUCTION WORLD TOTAL INDIA CHINA USA PAKISTAN BRAZIL UZBEKISTAN OTHERS CONSUMPTION WORLD TOTAL CHINA INDIA PAKISTAN EUROPE & TURKEY VIETNAM BANGLADESH USA BRAZIL OTHERS EXPORTS WORLD TOTAL USA INDIA CFA ZONE BRAZIL UZBEKISTAN AUSTRALIA IMPORTS WORLD TOTAL CHINA VIETNAM BANGLADESH INDONESIA TURKEY TRADE IMBALANCE 1/ STOCKS ADJUSTMENT 2/ ENDING STOCKS WORLD TOTAL CHINA USA ENDING STOCKS/MILL USE (%) WORLD-LESS-CHINA 3/ CHINA 4/ COTLOOK A INDEX 5/ / The inclusion of linters and waste, changes in weight during transit, differences in reporting periods and measurement error account for differences between world imports and exports. 2/ Difference between calculated stocks and actual; amounts for forward seasons are anticipated. 3/ World-less-China's ending stocks divided by World-less-China's mill use, multiplied by / China's ending stocks divided by China's mill use, multiplied by / U.S. cents per pound.

4 2014/15 SUPPLY AND USE OF COTTON BY COUNTRY April 1, 2016 CANADA CUBA DOM. REP MEXICO 181 1, USA 3, , , N. America 3, , ,189 2,485 1, EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA HONDURAS C. America ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRAZIL 976 1,589 1,551 1, , CHILE COLOMBIA ECUADOR PARAGUAY PERU URUGUAY VENEZUELA S. America 1,533 1,218 1,867 1, , , ALGERIA EGYPT MOROCCO SUDAN TUNISIA N. Africa BENIN BURKINA FASO CAMEROON CENT. AFR. REP CHAD COTE D'IVOIRE GUINEA MADAGASCAR 3 3 MALI NIGER SENEGAL TOGO F. Africa 2, , ANGOLA ETHIOPIA GHANA KENYA MALAWI MOZAMBIQUE NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA 15 1, TANZANIA UGANDA CONGO, DR ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE S. Africa 1, KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN 1, C. Asia 2, , ,

5 2014/15 SUPPLY & USE OF COTTON BY COUNTRY (cont'd) April 1, 2016 AUSTRIA AZERBAIJAN BELARUS BELGIUM BULGARIA CZECH REP DENMARK 0 0 ESTONIA FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE 271 1, HUNGARY IRELAND ITALY LATVIA LITHUANIA 0 0 MOLDOVA NETHERLANDS NORWAY POLAND PORTUGAL ROMANIA RUSSIA SLOVAK REP. SPAIN 74 1, SWEDEN 0 0 SWITZERLAND UKRAINE UNITED KINGDOM FORMER YUGOSLAVIA Europe Including EU , CHINA 4,310 1,503 6,480 12,088 1,804 7, , TAIWAN HONG KONG Sub total 4,310 1,503 6,480 12,164 1,989 7, , AUSTRALIA 197 2, INDONESIA JAPAN KOREA, D.R KOREA, REP MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM E. Asia 239 2, ,433 2, AFGHANISTAN BANGLADESH INDIA 12, ,460 1, , , MYANMAR PAKISTAN 2, , , SRI LANKA S. Asia 16, ,007 2,885 1,442 9,036 1,029 3, IRAN IRAQ ISRAEL 7 2, SYRIA TURKEY 468 1, , Sub total 696 1, , , , WORLD TOTAL 34, ,113 20,421 7,600 24,338 7,701 22, */ Ending stocks divided by consumption plus exports. Subtotals and total include countries not shown. **/ Ending stocks divided by consumption.

6 2015/16 SUPPLY AND USE OF COTTON BY COUNTRY April 1, 2016 CANADA CUBA DOM. REP MEXICO 130 1, USA 3, , , N. America 3, ,008 1, ,199 2,187 1, EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA HONDURAS C. America ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRAZIL 952 1,571 1,496 1, , CHILE COLOMBIA ECUADOR PARAGUAY PERU URUGUAY VENEZUELA S. America 1,485 1,203 1,787 1, , , ALGERIA EGYPT MOROCCO SUDAN TUNISIA N. Africa BENIN BURKINA FASO CAMEROON CENT. AFR. REP CHAD COTE D'IVOIRE GUINEA MADAGASCAR 3 3 MALI NIGER SENEGAL TOGO F. Africa 2, , ANGOLA ETHIOPIA GHANA KENYA MALAWI MOZAMBIQUE NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA 8 1, TANZANIA UGANDA CONGO, DR ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE S. Africa 1, KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN 1, C. Asia 2, ,

7 2015/16 SUPPLY & USE OF COTTON BY COUNTRY (cont'd) April 1, 2016 AUSTRIA AZERBAIJAN BELARUS BELGIUM BULGARIA CZECH REP DENMARK 0 0 ESTONIA FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE HUNGARY IRELAND ITALY LATVIA LITHUANIA 0 0 MOLDOVA NETHERLANDS NORWAY POLAND PORTUGAL ROMANIA RUSSIA SLOVAK REP. SPAIN SWEDEN 0 0 SWITZERLAND UKRAINE UNITED KINGDOM FORMER YUGOSLAVIA Europe Including EU CHINA 3,470 1,489 5,166 12,888 1,078 7, , TAIWAN HONG KONG Sub total 3,470 1,489 5,166 12,963 1,260 7, , AUSTRALIA 270 2, INDONESIA JAPAN KOREA, D.R KOREA, REP MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM ,100 1, E. Asia 309 1, ,591 2, AFGHANISTAN BANGLADESH ,079 1, INDIA 11, ,879 2, ,262 1,196 1, MYANMAR PAKISTAN 2, , , SRI LANKA S. Asia 15, ,613 3,269 1,852 8,725 1,270 2, IRAN IRAQ ISRAEL 9 1, SYRIA TURKEY 431 1, , Sub total 633 1, , , WORLD TOTAL 31, ,029 22,095 7,402 23,796 7,402 20, */ Ending stocks divided by consumption plus exports. Subtotals and total include countries not shown. **/ Ending stocks divided by consumption.

8 2016/17 SUPPLY AND USE OF COTTON BY COUNTRY April 1, 2016 CANADA CUBA DOM. REP MEXICO 133 1, USA 3, , , N. America 3, ,281 1, ,211 2,218 1, EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA HONDURAS C. America ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRAZIL 938 1,543 1,447 1, , CHILE COLOMBIA ECUADOR PARAGUAY PERU URUGUAY VENEZUELA S. America 1,469 1,183 1,739 1, , , ALGERIA EGYPT MOROCCO SUDAN TUNISIA N. Africa BENIN BURKINA FASO CAMEROON CENT. AFR. REP CHAD COTE D'IVOIRE GUINEA MADAGASCAR 3 3 MALI NIGER SENEGAL TOGO F. Africa 2, , , ANGOLA ETHIOPIA GHANA KENYA MALAWI MOZAMBIQUE NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA 8 1, TANZANIA UGANDA CONGO, DR ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE S. Africa 1, KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN TURKMENISTAN UZBEKISTAN 1, C. Asia 2, ,

9 2016/17 SUPPLY & USE OF COTTON BY COUNTRY (cont'd) April 1, 2016 AUSTRIA AZERBAIJAN BELARUS BELGIUM BULGARIA CZECH REP DENMARK 0 0 ESTONIA FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE HUNGARY IRELAND ITALY LATVIA LITHUANIA 0 0 MOLDOVA NETHERLANDS NORWAY POLAND PORTUGAL ROMANIA RUSSIA SLOVAK REP. SPAIN SWEDEN 0 0 SWITZERLAND UKRAINE UNITED KINGDOM FORMER YUGOSLAVIA Europe Including EU CHINA 3,123 1,489 4,649 12, , , TAIWAN HONG KONG Sub total 3,123 1,489 4,649 12,095 1,109 6, , AUSTRALIA 284 2, INDONESIA JAPAN KOREA, D.R KOREA, REP MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE THAILAND VIETNAM ,374 1, E. Asia 321 2, ,867 2, AFGHANISTAN BANGLADESH ,131 1, INDIA 12, ,455 1, ,472 1,042 1, MYANMAR PAKISTAN 2, , , SRI LANKA S. Asia 15, ,710 2,739 1,642 9,063 1,098 2, IRAN IRAQ ISRAEL 7 1, SYRIA TURKEY 422 1, , Sub total 557 1, , WORLD TOTAL 31, ,954 20,328 7,488 23,891 7,488 19, */ Ending stocks divided by consumption plus exports. Subtotals and total include countries not shown. **/ Ending stocks divided by consumption.

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