Groundnut Forum. 15 February Nico Hawkins General Manager

Transcription

1 Groundnut Forum 15 February 2018 Nico Hawkins General Manager

2 Groundnuts: Supply & Demand (National vs. International Marketing season) SAGIS Grain SA International (USDA) Marketing year Mar - Feb Sep - Aug Final Final 2016/17 Projection 2017/18 Estimate 2016/17 Projection 2017/18 '000t '000t Mil ton Mil ton Opening stocks Production Imports Total use 64.4 (b) 64.9 (b) Exports Closing stocks 8.3 (a) 35.5 (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (SAGIS: Progr t) (Grain SA: Proj Sources: SAGIS: 25 Jan '18, USDA: 31 Jan '18, Grain SA: 21 Dec '17

3 Groundnuts: Production & Producer deliveries Crop estimates vs. producer deliveries 2017/ / /16 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries ** Difference * CEC Final Estimate ** SAGIS Progr. Mar - Dec '17

4 Groundnuts: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Ton GROUNDNUTS: CEC Est, Ha, Yield vs SAGIS Deliveries Crop Estimate SAGIS Prod. Del. CEC Ha CEC Yield Source: Grain SA Source: CEC Yield /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Est. 18/19 Est. 0.00

5 Groundnuts: CEC Estimate SUMMER CROPS PRELIMINARY AREA PLANTED ESTIMATE: 2018 SOMERGEWASSE VOORLOPIGE OPPERVLAKTESKATTING: 2018 CROP/GEWAS Area planted/ Opp beplant Intentions 1)/ Voorneme 1) Area planted/ Opp beplant Final estimate/ Finale skatting Change/ Verandering/ 2018 vs Ha Ha Ha Tons % (A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (C) Commercial/Kommersieël White maize/witmielies ,8 Yellow maize/geelmielies ,0 Total Maize/Totale Mielies ,2 Sunflower seed/sonneblomsaad ,9 Soybeans/Sojabone ,1 Groundnuts/Grondbone ,4 Sorghum ,0 Dry beans/droëbone ,4 TOTAL/TOTAAL ,1 1) Soos middel Oktober 2017/ As mid October 2017 Note: Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2017/18 = 2018 Nota: Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2017/18 = 2018

6 Groundnuts: Imports & Exports 2017/18 Progressive summarised info 2017/18 Progr. 2016/ /16 Groundnuts Mar - Dec '17 Ton Imports Exports Source: SAGIS

7 Groundnuts: Imports for RSA 2017/18 season (Progr. Mar Dec 17) Cote d Ivoire % China % Groundnuts: RSA Imports Mar - Dec '17 India % Mozambique % USA % Other % Argentina % Total Imports: ton

8 Groundnuts: Exports for RSA 2017/18 season (Progr. Mar Dec 17) Swaziland % Groundnuts: RSA Exports Switzerland % Mar - Dec '17 Belgium % Netherlands % Mosambique % Japan % Total Exports: ton

9 Groundnuts: Consumption Groundnuts 2017/18 * 2016/17 ** Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Direct Edible Market Peanut Butter Crushed oil & cake Pods * 2017/18: Mar '17 - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS ** 2016/17: Mar '16 - Dec '16

10 Groundnuts: Consumption Ton GROUNDNUTS: PROCESSED Edible market Peanut butter Crushed Grain SA /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Est.

11 Price movements

12 Groundnuts: USA Groundnut prices (Progr. Dec 2000 Feb 18) 3000 USA Groundnut prices -US Runners 40/50 cif Rotterdam (shelled) /02/01 Source: Oilworld 2001/02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/01

13 Groundnuts: Indicative Import Parity Prices Argentine USA 2018/02/06 Raw Runners Raw Runners 40/50 40/50 Feb 2018 Feb 2018 $/t $/t International FOB value Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of FOB) Cost, Insurance and Freight R/$ Exchange rate on: 2018/02/ Converted to: R/t R/t Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing Discharging cost - Durban Import tariff Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban

14 Groundnuts: Indicative Export Parity Prices Argentine Raw 2018/02/08 Runner 40/50 Feb 2018 FOB Gulf value ($/t) Difference in quality and locality of SA: Groundnuts: Less 3.5% of fob value 96.5% SA fob price ($/t) R/$ Exchange rate on: 2018/02/ FOB Gulf value (R/t) Marketing costs: Financing (Prime rate 10.50% - 30 days)(r/t) Loading costs: (R/t) Durban Harbour (mainly spout method) Export realisation (R/t): Randfontein

15 Groundnuts: Imports SARS: FOB Prices (Shelled) (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Shelled / /17 Mar - Feb 2017/18 Progr. Mar-Nov Imports Ton Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS FOB value (R'000) FOB R/Ton SAGIS Imports until Dec t

16 Groundnuts: SARS Imports per country FOB Prices (Shelled) (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Country Ton FOB value FOB R'000 Rand/ton Argentina Brazil Burkina Faso China Gambia India Italy Malawi Mozambique Nicaragua South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania United States Unknown Zambia Zimbabwe TOTAL Progr. Mar - Nov '17 Source: SARS

17 Groundnuts: Exports SARS: FOB Prices (Shelled) (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Shelled / /17 Mar - Feb 2017/18 Progr. Mar-Nov Exports Ton Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS FOB value (R'000) FOB R/Ton SAGIS Exports until Dec t

18 Groundnuts: SARS Exports per country FOB Prices (Shelled) (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Country Ton FOB value FOB R'000 Rand/ton Angola Belgium Botswana India Japan Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Netherlands New Zealand Pakistan Swaziland United Kingdom United States Zambia Zimbabwe Total Progr. Mar - Nov '17 Source: SARS

19 Groundnuts: SARS Imports of Peanut Butter (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Peanut butter / /17 Mar - Feb Mar - Feb 2017/18 Progr. Mar-Nov Imports Ton Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS FOB Value (R'000) FOB R/Ton

20 Groundnuts: SARS Imports of Groundnuts Roasted (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Groundnuts Roasted Imports Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS Quantity (Ton) FOB Value (R'000) FOB R/Ton 2015/ / /18 Progr. Mar - Feb Mar - Feb Mar-Nov

21 Groundnuts: SARS Imports of Groundnuts Other (2017/18: Progr. 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Groundnuts Other Imports Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS Quantity (Ton) FOB Value (R'000) FOB R/Ton 2015/ / /18 Progr. Mar - Feb Mar - Feb Mar-Nov

22 Groundnuts: Price movements Products: year on year price changes December % Year % Year Price Price Price on Year on Year R R R Brick Margarine 500g Peanut Butter 400g Sunflower Oil 750ml Source: SA Statistics

23 Groundnuts: Products Manufactured Manufactured Dec '17 Tons Progressive: Jan - Dec '17 (12 months) Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives 0 0 Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake 0 0 Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ Textured Vegetable Protein Soybean Fullfat Peanut Butter and Paste Total

24 Groundnuts: Products Imported Imported Dec '17 Tons Progressive: Jan - Dec '17 (12 months) Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ Textured Vegetable Protein 0 0 Soybean Fullfat 0 0 Peanut Butter and Paste Total

25 Groundnuts: Products Imported Exported Dec '17 Tons Progressive: Jan - Dec '17 (12 months) Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake 0 0 Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ Textured Vegetable Protein 0 0 Soybean Fullfat Peanut Butter and Paste Total

26 Groundnuts: Price movements Various products Index (Jan 08 Dec 17) % 300 OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX Index: Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr Margarine Brick 500 gr Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17

27 General

28 Groundnut: Co-workers Groundnuts: Firms registered Traders % Storers % Harbour grain handlers % Processors % Total firms: 81

29 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase Chairperson Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson The Oil and Protein Seeds Dev. Trust & Oilseeds Industry is represented by: Mr Gerhard Scholtemeijer Mr De Wet Boshoff Ms Marie vd Merwe (Alternate)

30 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil all commitments: Groundnut Forum Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff Thank you for being part of SAGIS 20 year history, the present and ensuring its future.

31 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations