Sunflower & Soybean Forum
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- Elfrieda Banks
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1 Sunflower & Soybean Forum 1 February 2018 Nico Hawkins General Manager
2 Sunflower
3 Sunflower: Supply & Demand National vs. International Marketing season SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Marketing year Final: 2016/17 (c ) '000t Projection: Final: 2016/17 (d) 2017/18 (d) Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b1) (b) Exports Closing stocks (a) (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users ( (b) t - (b1) t) (c) Source: SAGIS 25 Jan '18 & NAMC: S&DEC - 11 Jan '18 (d) Source: USDA - 22 Jan '18 Mar - Feb Projection: 2017/18 (c ) '000t Sept - Aug
4 Sunflower: Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer deliveries Sunflower 2016/ /16 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries Difference * Final estimate ** SAGIS Progr: Mar - Dec ' /18 Ton
5 Sunflower: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Ton SUNFLOWERSEED : CEC Crop Est., Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Yield SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC Source: CEC /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Proj. 18/19 Proj.
6 Sunflower: CEC Estimate SUMMER CROPS PRELIMINARY AREA PLANTED ESTIMATE: 2018 SOMERGEWASSE VOORLOPIGE OPPERVLAKTESKATTING: 2018 CROP/GEWAS Area planted/ Opp beplant Intentions 1)/ Voorneme 1) Area planted/ Opp beplant Final estimate/ Finale skatting Change/ Verandering/ 2018 vs Ha Ha Ha Tons % (A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (C) Commercial/Kommersieël White maize/witmielies ,8 Yellow maize/geelmielies ,0 Total Maize/Totale Mielies ,2 Sunflower seed/sonneblomsaad ,9 Soybeans/Sojabone ,1 Groundnuts/Grondbone ,4 Sorghum ,0 Dry beans/droëbone ,4 TOTAL/TOTAAL ,1 1) Soos middel Oktober 2017/ As mid October 2017 Note: Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2017/18 = 2018 Nota: Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2017/18 = 2018
7 Sunflower: Imports & Exports 2017/18 Progressive Summarised info Marketing year 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Dec' / /16 Import Export *Progr: Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS Sunflower Ton
8 Sunflower: Imports & Exports per marketing year Ton SUNFLOWERSEED: Imports & Exports Imports Exports Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Proj.
9 Sunflower: Imports for RSA (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Des 17) Month Argentina China Egypt Malawi United Kingdom Month Total Progr. Total Ton 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS SARS: t Sunflower seeds Whether or not broken
10 Sunflower: RSA Exports (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Dec 17) Month Botswana Namibia Swaziland Ton Month Total Progr. Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS SARS: 606 t Sunflower seeds Whether or not broken
11 Sunflower: Processed Sunflower Processed 2017/18 * 2016/17 ** Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake * 2017/18: Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS ** 2016/17: Mar - Dec '16
12 Sunflower: Consumption Ton SUNFLOWERSEED : Crushed Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Proj.
13 Sunflower: 2017/18 Marketing Year SUNFLOWER: 2017/18 Season - Mar to Dec' S&DEC Deliveries 550 S&DEC Imports S&DEC Processed 220 S&DEC Exports CEC (Crop Est) Prod deliveries Imports Processed Exports 168
14 Sunflower: Opening & Ending Stocks Ton SUNFLOWERSEED: Stocks Opening stock Ending Stock Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Proj.
15 Sunflower: Price Movements SAFEX Local prices Sunflower - SAFEX Latest prices vs previous prices Future prices for: 2018/01/ /12/ /01/23 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton March ' May ' Source: SAFEX
16 Sunflower: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices 2018/01/23 French Sunflower Bordaux $/t FOB value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.17 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: Exhange R/$ (2018/01/23) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff 0.00 Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2017/01/24) Current SAFEX spot price (2018/01/23) R/t
17 Sunflower Oil: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Sunflower Oil - Crude ( ) Sunflower Oil - Crude Other ( ) Sunflower Oil - Cooking ( ) Sunflower Oil - Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) FOB Total value of imports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Sunflower Oil - Crude ( ) Sunflower Oil - Crude Other ( ) Sunflower Oil - Cooking ( ) Sunflower Oil - Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) FOB Total value of exports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS
18 Sunflower Oilcake: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Oilcake - Sunflower seeds ( ) Imports Total value of imports Quantity (T on) FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Oilcake - Sunflower seeds ( ) Exports Total value of exports Quantity (T on) FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS
19 Sunflower: SARS FOB Prices Imports per country Sunflower seeds whether or nor broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Imports T ariff Line Sunflower seeds - whether or not broken Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Argentina Australia Bolivia Bulgaria Chile China Egypt France Hungary India Israel Malawi Poland Thailand Turkey Ukraine United States Unknown Zambia Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Nov '17 Souce: SARS
20 Sunflower : SARS FOB Prices Exports per country Sunflower seeds whether or not broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Angola Austria Botswana Canada Chile Congo Dem Rep Of France Ghana Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Uganda United States Uruguay Zambia Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Nov '17 Source: SARS
21 Soybeans
22 Soybeans: Supply & Demand (National vs. International Marketing season SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Marketing year Sept - Aug Final: Projection: 2016/17 (d) 2017/18 (d) Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b) (b1) Exports Closing stocks 84.8 (a) (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users ( (b) t - (b1) t) (c) Source: SAGIS 25 Jan '18 & NAMC: S&DEC - 11 Jan '18 (d) Source: USDA - 22 Jan '18 Mar - Feb Final: Projection: 2016/17 (c ) '000t 2017/18 (c ) '000t
23 Soybeans: Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries Soybean 2016/ /16 CEC Production * Less Retentions Total available SAGIS Deliveries ** Difference * Final estimate ** SAGIS Progr: Mar - Dec ' /18 Ton
24 Soybeans: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Ton SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est., Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC Source: CEC Yield /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Proj. 18/19 Proj. 0.00
25 Sunflower: CEC Estimate SUMMER CROPS PRELIMINARY AREA PLANTED ESTIMATE: 2018 SOMERGEWASSE VOORLOPIGE OPPERVLAKTESKATTING: 2018 CROP/GEWAS Area planted/ Opp beplant Intentions 1)/ Voorneme 1) Area planted/ Opp beplant Final estimate/ Finale skatting Change/ Verandering/ 2018 vs Ha Ha Ha Tons % (A) (B) (C) (D) (A) (C) Commercial/Kommersieël White maize/witmielies ,8 Yellow maize/geelmielies ,0 Total Maize/Totale Mielies ,2 Sunflower seed/sonneblomsaad ,9 Soybeans/Sojabone ,1 Groundnuts/Grondbone ,4 Sorghum ,0 Dry beans/droëbone ,4 TOTAL/TOTAAL ,1 1) Soos middel Oktober 2017/ As mid October 2017 Note: Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2017/18 = 2018 Nota: Skatting is vir kalenderjaar, bv. produksie-seisoen 2017/18 = 2018
26 Soybeans: Imports & Exports 2017/18 Progressive Summarised Info Marketing year 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Dec' / /16 Import Export *Progr: Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS Soybean Ton
27 Soybeans Imports & Exports per marketing year Ton SOYBEANS: Imports & Exports Imports Exports 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec Source: S&DEC 17/18 Proj.
28 Soybeans: Imports for RSA (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Dec 17) Month Ethiopia Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Month Total Progressive Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS Ton SARS: t Soybean Whether or nor broken
29 Soybeans: RSA Exports (2017/18: 1 Mar 31 Dec 17) Month Botswana Mozambique Month Total Ton Progressive Total 2017/03/ /04/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /11/ /12/ TOTAL 2017/ /18 - Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS SARS: t Soybean Whether or nor broken
30 Soybeans: Processed Soybeans Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake * 2017/18: Mar - Dec '17 Source: SAGIS ** 2016/17: Mar - Dec ' /18 * 2016/17 **
31 Soybeans: Consumption Ton SOYBEANS: Processed Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake) Source: S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec 17/18 Proj.
32 Soybeans: Opening & Ending Stocks Ton SOYBEANS: Stock Opening stock Ending Stock 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. Mar-Dec Source: S&DEC 17/18 Proj.
33 Soybeans: Price Movements SAFEX Local prices Soybean - SAFEX Latest prices vs previous prices Future prices for: 2018/01/ /12/ /01/23 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton March ' May ' Source: SAFEX
34 Soybeans: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices 2018/01/23 Argentine Soybeans Up River $/t FOB value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.11 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: Exhange R/$ (2018/01/23) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2017/01/24) Current SAFEX spot price (2018/01/23) R/t
35 Soybeans: Price Movements CBOT International prices Soybean - CBOT Latest prices vs previous prices Contract: 2018/01/ /12/ /01/23 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton March ' May ' Source: CBOT
36 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Oilcake : Soybeans Oilcake: Soybeans ( ) Imports Quantity (T on) Total value of imports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Oilcake: Soybeans ( ) Exports Quantity (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS
37 Source: SARS Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Soybeans Crude Oil & Other Soybean Oil - Crude ( ) Soybean Oil - Other ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Food ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) Total value of imports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Soybean Oil - Crude ( ) Soybean Oil - Other ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Food ( ) Soybean Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on
38 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Palm Oil Crude & Other Palm Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Oil - Other ( ) Palm Oil - Other Food ( ) Palm Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) Total value of imports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Palm Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Oil - Other ( ) Palm Oil - Other Food ( ) Palm Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on
39 Palm oil: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Palm Kernel Oil: Crude & Other Palm Kernel Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Crude Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Imports (T on) FOB Total value of imports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Palm Kernel Oil - Crude ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Crude Other ( ) Palm Kernel Oil - Other Other ( ) Quantity Exports (T on) FOB Total value of exports R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on
40 Cottonseed: SARS FOB Prices Imports & Exports Oilcake: Cottonseed Oilcake: Cottonseed ( ) Imports Total value of imports Quantity (T on) FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Oilcake: Cottonseed ( ) Exports Quantity (T on) Total value of exports FOB R' /18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ / Value per ton R/T on Source: SARS
41 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Imports per country Soybeans whether or not broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Imports T ariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/ton China Djibouti Ethiopia France Malawi Nigeria South Africa Taiwan, Prov of China Thailand United States Zambia Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Nov '17 Source: SARS
42 Soybeans: SARS FOB Prices Exports per country Soybeans whether or not broken (2017/18 : 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Exports Tariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/ton Angola Botswana Canada Lesotho Mauritius Moroco Mozambique Namibia Swaziland Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Total /18: Mar - Nov '17 Source: SARS
43 All oil cake: Price Movements (2017/18 : 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Imports Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS All oil cake: Cotton seed Groundnut oil Linseed Rape or colza seeds (All) Soybean Sunflower ALL OIL CAKE Quantity (T on) FOB R'000 FOB R/T on 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ /
44 All oil: Price Movements (2017/18 : 1 Mar 30 Nov 17) Imports Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS All oil: Soybean oil (All) Groundnut oil (All) Palm oil (All) Sunflower oil (All) Palm kernel oil (All) Vegetable oil (All) ALL OIL Quantity (T on) FOB R'000 FOB R/T on 2017/18 Progr. Mar - Nov 2016/ /
45 Oilseeds Products
46 Oilseeds: Products Manufactured (1 Dec Nov 17) Manufactured Nov '17 Tons Progressive: Dec '16 - Nov '17 (12 months) Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives 0 0 Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake 0 0 Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ T extured Vegetable Protein Soybean Fullfat Peanut Butter and Paste Total
47 Oilseeds: Crushing percentage Progr. Dec '16 to Nov '17 Crushing % Oil Oilcake Rest % % % Soybeans Sunflowerseed
48 Oilseeds: Products Imported (1 Dec Nov 17) Imported Nov '17 Tons Progressive: Dec '16 - Nov '17 Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ T extured Vegetable Protein 0 0 Soybean Fullfat 0 0 Peanut Butter and Paste Total
49 Oilseeds: Products Exported (1 Dec Nov 17) Exported Nov '17 Tons Progressive: Dec '16 - Nov '17 Tons Palm Oil and Derivatives Soybean Oil Sunflower Oil Cottonseed Oil 0 0 Coconut Oil/ Groundnut Oil/ Canola Oil/ Corn (Maize) Oil/ Blends or mixes of Oils which includes one of the above Oils/ Biodiesel Cottonseed Oilcake 0 0 Sunflower Oilcake Coconut Oilcake 0 0 Palmnut Oilcake 0 0 Soybean Oilcake/ Canola Oilcake Soybean Flours and Meals/ T extured Vegetable Protein 0 0 Soybean Fullfat Peanut Butter and Paste Total
50 Price Movements Products: Year on year price changes December % Year % Year Price Price Price on Year on Year R R R Brick Margarine 500g Peanut Butter 400g Sunflower Oil 750ml Source: SA Statistics
51 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Price Movements Products: prices: (Dec 08 Dec 17) Rand Sunflower oil 750ml Margarine Brick 500g Peanut butter 400g PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS
52 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Price Movements Products: Index (Jan 08 Dec 17) % 300 OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX Index: Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr Margarine Brick 500 gr 0
53 Oilseeds Admin
54 Sunflower & Soybean: Inspection Mass over declared Mass under declared Total mass incorrectly declared Total utilized audited Mass incorrectly declared as % of total utilized Net effect of (under) / over declared Ton % Ton a b c d c : d a - b Canola Groundnuts (397) Soybeans (2 051) Sunflower
55 Sunflower & Soybean: Co-workers Sunflower: Firms registered with SAGIS Soybeans: Firms registered with SAGIS Traders % Harbour silo owners 7 6.4% Storers % Processors % Traders % Storers % Total firms: 110 Harbour silo owners % Processors % Total firms: 108
56 Sunflower & Soybean: Member basis Member basis of subscription -1 March 2017 to 28 February T he Oil & Protein Seeds Dev. T rust 15.5% The Maize T rust 66.1% Sorghum T rust 4.7% Winter Cereal T rust 13.7%
57 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase Chairperson Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson The Oil and Protein Seeds Dev. Trust & Oilseeds Industry is represented by: Mr Gerhard Scholtemeijer Mr De Wet Boshoff Ms Marie vd Merwe (Alternate)
58 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible to fulfil SAGIS commitments: Oilseeds Forum Advisory Committee Oil and Protein Seeds Development Trust Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff Thank you for being part of SAGIS 20 year history, the present and ensuring its future.
59 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations
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