Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income

Transcription

1 European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development December Baseline assumptions on key macroeconomic variable, Population growth (EU-28) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% EU % 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% EU-N13-0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% Real GDP growth (EU-28) -4.4% 2.1% 1.7% -0.5% 0.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% EU % 2.1% 1.6% -0.5% -0.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% EU-N13-3.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.6% 1.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% World -1.9% 4.3% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% Inflation (Consumer Price Index) (EU-28) 0.8% 2.0% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% EU % 1.9% 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% EU-N13 3.1% 2.9% 3.8% 3.8% 1.4% 0.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% Exchange rate (USD/EUR) Crude oil price (USD per barrel Brent) Sources: DG Agriculture and Rural Development estimates based on the European Commission macroeconomic forecasts and IHS Global Insight. Total cereals balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks of which intervention Stock-to-use ratio 19% 13% 13% 10% 12% 18% 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%

2 Total wheat balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks of which intervention Coarse grains balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks of which intervention Common wheat balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks of which intervention Yield of which EU of which EU-N EU price in EUR/t World price in EUR/t World price in USD/t

3 Durum wheat balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks Yield of which EU of which EU-N Barley balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks of which intervention Yield of which EU of which EU-N EU price in EUR/t Maize balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks of which intervention Yield of which EU of which EU-N EU price in EUR/t World price in EUR/t World price in USD/t

4 Other cereals* balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and industrial of which feed of which bioenergy Imports Exports Yield Beginning stocks Ending stocks * Rye, Oats and other cereals Rice balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes milled equivalent) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks Yield EU price in EUR/t (paddy rice) World price in EUR/t World price in USD/t Total oilseed** (grains and beans) market balance in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Rapeseed Sunseed Soyabeans Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which crushing Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks EU price in EUR/t (rapeseed) World price in EUR/t World price in USD/t

5 Oilseed yields Rapeseed of which EU of which EU-N Sunflower seed of which EU of which EU-N Soybeans of which EU of which EU-N Total oilseed meal** market balance in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks EU price in EUR/t (soybean meal) World price in EUR/t World price in USD/t Total oilseed oil** market balance in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks EU price in EUR/t (rapeseed oil) World price in EUR/t World price in USD/t Total vegetable oil** market balance in the EU, (million tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N of which food and other use of which bioenergy Imports Exports Beginning stocks Ending stocks ** Tables include rapeseed, soybeans, sunflower and groundnuts; in Table vegetable oil palm oil, cottonneseed oil, palmkernel oil and coconut oil are added

6 Area under arable crops in the EU, (million ha) Cereals of which EU of which EU-N Common wheat Durum wheat Barley Maize Rye Other cereals Rice Oilseeds of which EU of which EU-N Rapeseed Sunseed Soyabeans Sugar beet Potatoes Protein crops other arable crops Fodder (green maize, temp. grassland etc.) Utilised arable area set-aside and fallow land Share of fallow land 8.4% 8.8% 7.8% 7.3% 6.8% 6.78% 6.93% 7.04% 7.07% 7.10% 7.09% 7.09% 7.10% 7.11% 7.12% 7.12% Total arable area Permanent grassland Share of permanent grassland in UAA 32.7% 33.2% 33.0% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% 32.9% Orchards and others Total utilised agricultural area

7 Biofuels balance sheet for the EU, (million tonnes oil equivalent) Production Ethanol based on wheat based on other cereals based on sugar beet nd gen Biodiesel based on vegetable oils based on waste oils other 2nd gen Consumption Ethanol for fuel non fuel use of ethanol Biodiesel Net trade Ethanol imports Ethanol exports Biodiesel imports Biodiesel exports Petrol consumption Diesel consumption Biofuels energy share (% RED counting) Energy share: 1st-generation Energy share: based on waste oils Energy share: other 2nd-generation Energy share: Ethanol in Petrol Energy share: Biodiesel in Diesel Ethanol producer price in EUR/hl Biodiesel producer price in EUR/hl

8 Total sugar balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes white sugar equivalent) Sugar beet production (million tonnes) of which EU of which EU-N of which for ethanol of which processed for sugar Sugar production* Sugar quota of which EU of which EU-N Consumption Imports Exports Beginning stocks** Ending stocks** EU price in EUR/t World price in EUR/t World price in USD/t EU support price in EUR/t * Sugar production is adjusted for carry forward quantities and does not include ethanol feedstock quantities. ** Stocks include carry forward quantities. Total isoglucose balance sheet in the EU, (million tonnes) Isoglucose production of which EU of which EU-N Isoglucose quota Isoglucose consumption share in Sweetener use (%) Imports Exports

9 Milk supply and utilisation in the EU, Dairy cows (million heads) of which EU of which EU-N Milk yield (kg/cow) of which EU of which EU-N Dairy cow milk production (million t) of which EU of which EU-N Total cow milk production (million t) of which EU of which EU-N Delivered to dairies (million t) of which EU of which EU-N On-farm use and direct sales (million t) of which EU of which EU-N Delivery ratio (%) of which EU of which EU-N Fat content of milk (%) Non-fat solid content of milk (%) EU Milk producer price in EUR/t (real fat conte Fresh Dairy Product supply projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Cheese market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N per capita consumption (kg) of which EU of which EU-N Imports Exports EU market price in EUR/t (Cheddar) World market price in EUR/t World market price in USD/t

10 Butter market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N per capita consumption (kg) of which EU of which EU-N Imports Exports Ending Stocks of which private of which intervention EU market price in EUR/t World market price in EUR/t World market price in USD/t EU intervention price in EUR/t SMP market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N Imports Exports Ending Stocks of which private of which intervention EU market price in EUR/t World market price in EUR/t World market price in USD/t WMP market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N Imports Exports EU market price in EUR/t World market price in EUR/t World market price in USD/t

11 Whey market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes) Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption Imports Exports EU market price in EUR/t World market price in EUR/t World market price in USD/t

12 Beef and veal meat market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes c.w.e.) Total number of cows (million heads) of which dairy cows of which sukler cows Gross Indigenous Production of which EU of which EU-N Imports of live animals Exports of live animals Net Production Consumption of which EU of which EU-N per capita consumption (kg r.w.e.)* of which EU of which EU-N Imports (meat) Exports (meat) Net trade (meat) EU market price in EUR/t World 'Atlantic' market price in EUR/t (Brazil) World 'Atlantic' market price in USD/t Sheep and goat meat market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes c.w.e.) Gross Indigenous Production of which EU of which EU-N Imports of live animals Exports of live animals Net Production Consumption of which EU of which EU-N per capita consumption (kg r.w.e.)* of which EU of which EU-N Imports (meat) Exports (meat) Net trade (meat) EU market price in EUR/t World market price in EUR/t World market price in USD/t

13 Pig meat market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes c.w.e.) Gross Indigenous Production of which EU of which EU-N Imports of live animals Exports of live animals Net Production Consumption of which EU of which EU-N per capita consumption (kg r.w.e.)* of which EU of which EU-N Imports (meat) Exports (meat) Net trade (meat) EU market price in EUR/t World 'Atlantic' market price in EUR/t (Brazil) World 'Atlantic' market price in USD/t World 'Pacific' market price in EUR/t (US) World 'Pacific' market price in USD/t Poultry meat market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes c.w.e.) Gross Indigenous Production of which EU of which EU-N Consumption of which EU of which EU-N per capita consumption (kg r.w.e.)* of which EU of which EU-N Imports (meat) Exports (meat) Net trade (meat) EU market price in EUR/t World market price in EUR/t World market price in USD/t

14 Aggregate meat market projections for the EU, (thousand tonnes c.w.e.) Gross Indigenous Production of which EU of which EU-N Imports of live animals Exports of live animals Net Production Consumption of which EU of which EU-N per capita consumption (kg r.w.e.)* of which EU of which EU-N of which Beef and Veal meat of which Sheep and Goat meat of which Pig meat of which Poultry meat Imports (meat) Exports (meat) Net trade (meat) * r.w.e. = retail weight equivalent; Coefficients to transform carcass weight into retail weight are 0.7 for beef and veal, 0.78 for pigmeat and 0.88 for both poultry meat and sheep and goat meat DISCLAIMER: While all efforts are made to reach sound market and income prospects, uncertainties remain. This publication does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission. European Union, Reproduction authorized provided the source is acknowledged