Outlook for Crop Farm Income, Cash Rent, and Farmland Prices. Gary Schnitkey University of Illinois
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1 Outlook for Crop Farm Income, Cash Rent, and Farmland Prices Gary Schnitkey University of Illinois
2 Net Income on Illinois Grain Farms, , 2017P
3
4 U.S. Corn Yield, U.S. USDA release 2017 forecast on August 10 USDA forecast = bu. per acre Trend yield = bu. per acre
5 Illinois State Yields, Corn USDA release 2017 forecast on August 10 USDA forecast = 188 bu. per acre Trend yield = 178 bu. per acre
6 U.S. Soybean Yields USDA release 2017 forecast on August 10 USDA forecast = 49.4 bu. per acre Trend yield = 46.9 bu. per acre
7
8 Market Year Average Prices and Forecasts Period P 17P 18P Corn ($/bu.) Soybeans ($/bu.) Wheat ($/bu.) Projection for 2016 and 2017 are WASDE projections, 2018 are looking at future markets Fall 2017 bids (east-central Illinois, Sept 8): $3.30 corn $9.45 soybeans
9 ARC-CO Payments, Corn, McLean County Input Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) - County County MYA Benchmark ARC ARC Price Loss Coverage (PLC) Year Yield Price 1 Yield 2 Price 3 Guarantee 4 Payment 5 Payment $/a cre $/a cre * Five-Year Average National loan rate equals: 1.95 Reference price equals: 3.70
10 Table 1. Projected 2016 ARC-CO Payments per Base Acre After Sequestion by Crop, Illinois. 1,2,3,4 Soy- Soy- Soy- Corn Beans Wheat Corn Beans Wheat Corn Beans Wheat 2016 ARC-CO Payments (received this fall, still estimates) Corn Payments From $0 to $60 per base acre, more of the highs in southern Illinois Soybean Payments Mostly $0 per base acre Wheat Payments From $0 to mid $0 per base acre Adams Hardin NA 0 NA Morgan Alexander Henderson 25 2 NA Moultrie 39 0 NA Bond NA NA NA Henry Ogle Boone Iroquois Peoria 8 1 NA Brown 15 0 NA Jackson 56 NA NA Perry 49 0 NA Bureau 66 0 NA Jasper Piatt Calhoun NA NA 18 Jefferson 49 0 NA Pike Carroll Jersey Pope NA Cass Jo Daviess Pulaski Champaign Johnson 50 NA NA Putnam Christian Kane Randolph Clark NA NA 34 Kankakee Richland Clay Kendall 26 NA NA Rock Island 31 0 NA Clinton Knox St. Clair Coles NA 0 NA Lake Saline Cook 0 NA NA LaSalle 45 0 NA Sangamon 5 0 NA Crawford NA 0 32 Lawrence NA NA 32 Schuyler Cumberland Lee Scott 0 0 NA DeKalb Livingston Shelby De Witt NA Logan 8 0 NA Stark Douglas McDonough Stephenson DuPage NA NA NA McHenry Tazewell Edgar 51 0 NA McLean Union 51 2 NA Edwards Macon Vermilion 0 0 NA Effingham Macoupin 0 0 NA Wabash Fayette 50 0 NA Madison Warren 5 0 NA Ford 0 0 NA Marion Washington Franklin Marshall 45 0 NA Wayne NA 0 NA Fulton 11 0 NA Mason NA NA NA White Gallatin Massac Whiteside 43 0 NA Greene Menard 48 0 NA Will NA 0 NA Grundy 0 0 NA Mercer 31 0 NA Williamson 57 0 NA Hamilton 56 0 NA Monroe Winnebago Hancock 0 0 NA Montgomery 9 0 NA Woodford
11 Non-land Costs, Corn and Soybeans
12 Costs and Changes, Corn, Central Illinois Year Change $/acre $/acre $/acre $/acre $/acre Non-land costs Fertilizer Seed Pesticides Mach. depreciation Mach. Repair Fuel Non-land interest Cash rent
13 Operator and Land Returns, and Cash Rents, Central Illinois, High-Productivity Farmland
14 Illinois Cash Rents, State
15 Cash Rent by County, 2019 Released by USDA, September 8, cash rents Average cash rents for each county
16
17 Average and Professionally Managed Farmland, Illinois Land Productivity Averages Professionally Managed Farmland 2 (Expected corn yield) P $/acre $/acre $/acre $/acre $/acre State average Excellent (190+ bushels) Good ( bushels) Average ( bushels) Fair (Less than 150 bushels)
18 2017 Illinois Farmland Values & Lease Trends Understanding Our Farmland Categories Using the Productivity Index from the University of Illinois (Bulletin 811). Excellent Productivity 147 to 133 Good Productivity 132 to 117 Average Productivity 116 to 100 Fair Productivity Less than 100 Recreational Tracts Transitional Tracts
19
20 2016 Excellent Quality Farmland Mid Range Land Value Comments Region 1 $10,500 Higher supply of land south of Illinois River led to more decrease there. Some new 1031 exchange money in the market supporting values. Region 2 $11,500 Farmers still the main land buyers. Tight supply. 9 sales still over $12,000/acre. Region 3 $11,000 Low volume with sellers resisting lower prices. Location has become much more important to high sales prices. Region 4 $10,750 Wider range of prices than Bare, square, high percentage tillable bringing a premium. Low volume. Region 5 $10,325 Prices down 5-8%. Same notes as Region 4 on volume and price for premium tracts. Especially strong in Champaign & Douglas Counties. Region 6 $10,525 Down 8-9%. Larger disparity between low priced tracts and high priced sales (Over $4,100/ac). Location important. Region 7 $12,200 This region sustained the high quality land values Region 8 -- Region 9 $10,250 Region $10,880 (average) better than any other region. Auction -March 17 Evidenced by 888 ac.
21 2016 Good Quality Farmland Mid Range Land Value Comments Region 1 $8,200 Prices down ~7%, most found in Will County area. Prices higher in the south and west side of this Region. Region 2 $8,000 Median sales price down 11%. Mostly farmer buyers but investors were picking up opportunities. Wide price range. Region 3 $8,250 Less liquidity than the highest quality farmland. Field shape & percent tillable really influenced price negatively. Region 4 $8,750 Higher volume than Prices declined early and leveled out later. Region 5 $7,950 Sought out by investors and farmers when excellent land seemed not available. Price down~11%. Volume -20%. Region 6 $9,425 Better quality good farms sold in 2016 vs Longer marketing timeframe to move most tracts. Region 7 $8,755 Several option or easement payments being 1031 ed into farmland purchases by local landowners. Region 8 $10,700 The best soils in this region. This average actually rose likely as compared to Region 9 $8,800 Very similar price to Region 10 $8,000 Similar price average to 2015-or a little higher. Wide range in price per acre.
22 AgLetter Chicago FED, August 2017
23 AgLetter Chicago FED, August 2017
24 Land Prices, Illinois
25
26 AgLetter Chicago FED, August 2017
27 Land Prices When will cash rents break if we continue to have below $4.00 corn? Very low interest rates Stable to decreasing land prices unless cash rents decline
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P E N N S Y L V A N I A H O U S I N G F I N A N C E A G E N C Y PAGE 1 ADAMS 20% 75,100 9,640 11,020 12,400 13,760 14,880 15,980 17,080 18,180 19,260 20% 457 241 258 310 358 399 440 481 30% 6/01/2015 14,500
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