Operational Overview. Operational Forum, 24 th March 2010

Transcription

1 Operational Overview Operational Forum, 24 th March 21

2 Weather

3 Weather February 21 The cold weather continued throughout February with all but one day being colder than the 17-year seasonal normal CWV. National CWV and 17 Year SNCWV /2/1 2/2/1 3/2/1 4/2/1 5/2/1 6/2/1 7/2/1 8/2/1 9/2/1 1/2/1 11/2/1 12/2/1 13/2/1 14/2/1 15/2/1 16/2/1 17/2/1 18/2/1 19/2/1 2/2/1 21/2/1 22/2/1 23/2/1 24/2/1 25/2/1 26/2/1 27/2/1 28/2/1 cwv National CWV 17 Year Seasonal Normal CWV

4 Composite Weather Variables From 1-February-21 to 14-March-21 cwv 1/2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 13/3/1 Actual CWV Actual CWV 9 Normal CWV Cold CWV Warm CWV

5 Mean Composite Weather Variable Met Office Winter - December to February The Met Office define winter as December to February. On a temperature basis 29/1 was the coldest winter since 1978/9. Using composite weather data, 29/1 was the coldest since 1985/6. Mean National Composite Weather for December to February degrees CWV Year This year Last year Other years

6 Demands

7 Gas Demand Breakdown From 1-February-21 to 12-March Reductions in NDM Demand coinciding with slightly warmer weather. mcm 1/2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 NDM* DM (excl. interconnectors)* Storage Injection Interconnectors Export SND Cold demand Warm demand /2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 13/3/1 cwv Actual CWV Actual CWV 9 Normal CWV Cold CWV Warm CWV

8 NTS Industrials and Moffat Exports February 21 Moffat exports continued to exceed forecasts in February. NTS Industrial loads recovered to forecasted levels. 25 Moffat exports 7 NTS Industrial mcm/d 15 1 mcm/d Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Model Actual Seasonal normal 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb Model Actual Seasonal normal

9 Power Generation February 21 Over the month, gas generated 45%, coal 35% and nuclear 17% of electricity demand. The remaining 3% spread between pumped storage, hydro, wind and the French interconnector. 12 Power generation gas demand mcm/d /MWh 2 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb -1 High Seasonal normal Low Spark spread - Dark spread Actual Generation data compiled from half hourly data from

10 Supplies

11 Gas Supply Breakdown From 1-February-21 to 12-March mcm/d IUK switching Flow direction throughout February / early March. 5 1/2/21 6/2/21 11/2/21 16/2/21 21/2/21 26/2/21 3/3/21 8/3/21 SRS Usage coinciding with the start of Norwegian Supply losses. UKCS Norway(est) LNG Imports BBL IUK LRS MRS SRS

12 Storage Stocks - UK From 1-October-29 to 14-March SRS Stocks 1 MRS Stocks GWh Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Stock Level 29 / 1 Stock Level 28 / 9 Stock Level 27 / 8 Stock Level 26 / 7 GWh Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Stock Level 29 / 1 Stock Level 28 / 9 Stock Level 27 / 8 Stock Level 26 / LRS Stocks 9, 8, 7, 6, Total EU Weekly Storage Levels Oct to Sep 28_9 and 29_1 GWh GWh 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Stock Level 29 / 1 Stock Level 28 / 9 Stock Level 27 / 8 Stock Level 26 / 7 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 28_9 29_1 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

13 Transporter Actions & Neutrality

14 Market Liquidity From 1 February 21 to 15 March Twh 1/2/1 3/2/1 5/2/1 7/2/1 9/2/1 11/2/1 13/2/1 15/2/1 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 23/2/1 25/2/1 27/2/1 1/3/1 3/3/1 5/3/1 7/3/1 9/3/1 11/3/1 13/3/1 15/3/1 Total Gas Traded Total Daily Physical

15 System Prices From 1 February 21 to 15 March p/therm 1/2/21 3/2/21 5/2/21 7/2/21 9/2/21 11/2/21 13/2/21 15/2/21 17/2/21 19/2/21 21/2/21 23/2/21 25/2/21 27/2/21 1/3/21 3/3/21 5/3/21 7/3/21 9/3/21 11/3/21 13/3/21 15/3/21 Genuine SMP Buy price of 47 p/therm on the 1/3/21 SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell

16 Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM Buys and Sells by Day From 1-February-21 to 15-March-21 16,, 14,, 12,, 6. 1,, 8,, 4. 6,, National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells February 29 to February 21 16,,. 14,,. 12,,. 1,,. 8,,. 6,,. kwh GWh 4,, 2. 2,,. -2,, ,, -6,, ,, -1,, ,, -14,, -8. 4,,. 2,,.. -2,,. -4,,. -6,,. -8,,. -1,,. -12,,. -14,,. kwh -16,, -16,,. -1,. 1/2/1 Feb-9 3/2/1 5/2/1 Mar-9 7/2/1 9/2/1 Apr-9 11/2/1 13/2/1 May-9 15/2/1 Jun-9 17/2/1 19/2/1 21/2/1 Jul-9 23/2/1 Aug-9 25/2/1 27/2/1 Sep-9 1/3/1 3/3/1 Oct-9 5/3/1 7/3/1 Nov-9 9/3/1 11/3/1 Dec-9 13/3/1 Jan-1 15/3/1 Feb-1 Buy Sell Last Year Buy Last Year Sell Buy Sell

17 Days of Default SMP Prices From 1-February-21 to 28-February-21 SMP Buy 82.1% Percentage of Days of Default SMP SMP Sell 82.1% Both 64.3% 9. Days Of Default SMP From January 29 to January Both

18 Transporter Actions on OCM Mechanism Revenues / Costs From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 Quantity (TWh) Average Price (p/kwh) Average Price (p/therm) Cost ( m) System Buy System Sell Net Position Sell System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell

19 Imbalance Gas Revenues / Costs From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 System Quantity (TWh) Average Price (p/kwh) Average Price (p/therm) Cost m System Buy System Sell Net Position.88 Buy m System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell

20 Scheduling Revenues From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 Cost m Input -.45 Output -.35 Total m Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec-9 Jan-1 Input Output

21 Balancing Costs From 1-October-29 to 31-January-21 OCM Imbalance Charge Scheduling Charge m Balancing Cost 1.96 (.4p/KWh or.125p/therm of Throughput) OCM Imbalance Sched

22 Capacity Neutrality Revenues From DSEC & DAI From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 25,. ASEP St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other TOTAL Revenue 194, , , , , , , , ,. 15,. 1,. 5,.. St Fergus Teesside Barow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other

23 Capacity Neutrality Prompt Buy Backs From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 ASEP Cost No.of days Volume (kwh) St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton TOTAL

24 Capacity Neutrality Revenues From Overruns From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 Month April 29 May 29 June 29 July 29 August 29 September 29 October 29 November 29 December 29 January 21 Total Revenue - 31, , , , , , , , , ,723.43

25 Capacity Neutrality Capacity Management Agreement (including RMTTSEC) From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 Month April 29 May 29 June 29 July 29 August 29 September 29 October 29 November 29 December 29 January 21 Total Cost 11, , ,81.17

26 Capacity Neutrality Net Cost/Revenue From 1 April 29 to 31 January 21 DSEC/DAI Revenue - 612,416.1 Buy back costs +. Capacity Management Agreement + 33,81.17 Overrun Revenue - 813, Net Revenue - 1,393,58.28