Operational Forum Meeting. Wednesday 12th December 2012, 10:30AM Radisson Grafton Hotel, 130 Tottenham Court Road, London.
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1 Operational Forum Meeting Wednesday 12th December 212, 1:3AM Radisson Grafton Hotel, 13 Tottenham Court Road, London.
2 System Management Principles Statement
3 System Management Principles Statement Compliance report for October and November 212 Summary of balancing actions and breaches for October and November 212 Performance compared to last year 3
4 Summary Report Total Number of Buy Actions Total Number of Sell Actions Total Oct Nov Number of Material Breaches Number of Non-Material Breaches Oct 212 Nov 212 4
5 211 / 212 Comparison Oct 211 Oct 212 Nov 211 Nov 212 Number of Balancing Actions (Calendar year to date) Number of Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) Number of Non-Material Breaches (Calendar year to date) 5
6 Operational Overview
7 Weather
8 National Composite Weather October to November 212 Vs Historical Range National Composite Weather October to November 212 compared to 1929 to Oct 4- Oct 7- Oct 1- Oct 13- Oct 16- Oct 19- Oct 22- Oct 25- Oct 28- Oct 31- Oct 3- Nov 6- Nov 9- Nov 12- Nov 15- Nov 18- Nov 21- Nov 24- Nov 27- Nov 3- Nov Historical range 212 Seasonal Normal 8
9 Mean Composite Weather Variables October 212 Vs Previous Yrs. 13 Mean National Composite Weather for October degrees CWV /13 211/12 Other years
10 1/1/212 2/1/212 3/1/212 4/1/212 5/1/212 6/1/212 7/1/212 8/1/212 9/1/212 1/1/212 11/1/212 12/1/212 13/1/212 14/1/212 15/1/212 16/1/212 17/1/212 18/1/212 19/1/212 2/1/212 21/1/ National CWV and EP2 SNCW Composite Weather Variables October /1/212 23/1/212 24/1/212 25/1/212 26/1/212 27/1/212 28/1/212 29/1/212 3/1/212 31/1/212 1
11 Mean Composite Weather Variables November 212 Vs Previous Yrs. 1 Mean National Composite Weather for November degrees CWV 212/13 211/12 Other years
12 1/11/212 2/11/212 3/11/212 4/11/212 5/11/212 6/11/212 7/11/212 8/11/212 9/11/212 1/11/212 11/11/212 12/11/212 13/11/212 14/11/212 15/11/212 16/11/212 17/11/212 18/11/212 19/11/212 2/11/212 21/11/212 22/11/212 23/11/212 24/11/212 25/11/212 26/11/212 27/11/212 28/11/212 29/11/212 3/11/ National CWV and EP2 SNCW Composite Weather Variables November
13 212/13 211/12 Other years 1993/ / /66 198/ / / / / / /68 21/ / / / / / /92 212/ / /77 28/9 2/1 1996/ / / /83 23/4 1983/ /8 1969/7 1968/ /9 1986/ / 1963/64 199/91 197/71 22/3 24/5 1997/98 27/8 1984/85 25/6 1994/95 29/1 1978/ /96 21/2 26/7 211/ degrees CWV Mean National Composite Weather for Oct. to Nov. Mean Composite Weather Variables October-November 212 Vs Previous Yrs. 13
14 14 Composite Weather Variables October-November 212 National CWV and EP2 SNCW /1/212 2/1/212 3/1/212 4/1/212 5/1/212 6/1/212 7/1/212 8/1/212 9/1/212 1/1/212 11/1/212 12/1/212 13/1/212 14/1/212 15/1/212 16/1/212 17/1/212 18/1/212 19/1/212 2/1/212 21/1/212 22/1/212 23/1/212 24/1/212 25/1/212 26/1/212 27/1/212 28/1/212 29/1/212 3/1/212 31/1/212 1/11/212 2/11/212 3/11/212 4/11/212 5/11/212 6/11/212 7/11/212 8/11/212 9/11/212 1/11/212 11/11/212 12/11/212 13/11/212 14/11/212 15/11/212 16/11/212 17/11/212 18/11/212 19/11/212 2/11/212 21/11/212 22/11/212 23/11/212 24/11/212 25/11/212 26/11/212 27/11/212 28/11/212 29/11/212 3/11/212
15 Demands
16 Gas Demand Breakdown October-November 212 Vs 211 Gas Demand Breakdown 1st October 212 to 3th November 212 vs mcm Oct-12 8-Oct Oct Oct Oct-12 5-Nov Nov Nov Nov-12 NDM DM (Excl Interconnectors) Total Interconnector Export Storage Injection SND Cold Demand Warm Demand 211 Demand 16
17 LDZ Demand 211/12 Vs 212/13 Gas Demand Breakdown [LDZ 211/12 vs 212/13] 1st October 212 to 3th November mcm Oct-12 8-Oct Oct Oct Oct-12 5-Nov Nov Nov Nov-12 Gas Day LDZ Demand 212/13 LDZ Demand 211/12 17
18 Power Generation 1st October 212 to 3 th November 212 Gas Consumption for Power Generation mcm/d /1/212 8/1/212 15/1/212 22/1/212 29/1/212 5/11/212 12/11/212 19/11/212 26/11/212 Actual for Power Generation Low Base Case High 211 Actual Power Generation 18
19 Supplies
20 Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st June 212 to 3 th September Gas Supply Breakdown 1st October 212 to 3th November mcm/d Oct-12 8-Oct Oct Oct Oct-12 5-Nov Nov Nov Nov-12 Gas Day UKCS Norw ay (est) LNG Imports BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS Supplies SRS Supplies MIPI [D+1 System Entry Volume 211] 2
21 Storage Stocks - UK From 1 st October 212 to 3 th November 212 vs Previous Years 45. LRS Stocks 12. MRS Stocks TWh TWh Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep LRS 21/211 LRS 211/212 LRS 212/213 MRS 21/211 MRS 211/212 MRS 212/213.7 SRS Stocks.6.5 TWh Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep MRS 21/211 SRS 211/212 SRS 212/213 21
22 Storage Stocks - EU From 1 st October 212 to 3 th November 212 vs Previous Years 8, Total EU Weekly Storage Levels 7, 6, 5, mcm 4, 3, 2, 1, Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Date 21/ / /213 Aug Sep Stocklevel Status at 6:CET on Wednesday Hub Area Stock Level (mcm) % Full Baumgarten % Germany % Iberian % NBP % France % PSV % TTF (Eurohub) % ZEE 496 7% Total Hubs % 22
23 Transporter Actions and Neutrality
24 System Prices 1 st October 212 to 3 th November System Prices 1st October 212 to 3th November Oct-12 4-Oct-12 7-Oct-12 1-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-12 3-Nov-12 6-Nov-12 9-Nov Nov Nov Nov-12 p/therm 21-Nov Nov Nov-12 3-Nov-12 SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell SAP 211
25 Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM Buys and Sells by Month From December 211 to November 212 GWh National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells December 211 to November 212 GWh 3,65 3,6 3,55 3,5 3,45 3,4 National Grid Balancing Dec 211 to Nov ,35 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 3,3 Buy Sell Buy Sell 25
26 Days of Default SMP Prices From December 211 to November 212 SMP Buy SMP SELL Both Oct-12 74% 74% 55% Nov-12 8% 97% 77% SMPB Calculation Summary December 211 to November 212 %age SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal] SMPS Calculation Summary December 211 to November 212 %age SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal] 26
27 Transporter Actions on the OCM Mechanism Revenues / Costs From 1 st December 211 to 3 th November 212 Quantity Average Price Cost TWh p/kwh Therms m System Buy System Sell Net Position Transporter Actions on OCM December 211 to November m Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Month System Cost - Buy System Cost - Sell 27
28 Shipper Imbalance Revenues / Costs From 1 st November 211 to 31 st October 212 Quantity Average Price Average price Cost (TWH) P/KWh P/Therm m System Buy Shipper Over Delivery/Cost to Neutrality System Sell Shipper Under Delivery/Revenue to Neutrality Net Position Shipper Imbalances - Revenue Costs November 211 to October 212 m ``` - 4. Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 System Cost - Buy Month System Cost - Sell 28
29 Scheduling Revenues From 1 st November 211 to 31 st October 212 Cost m Input Output Total Scheduling Revenues November 211 to October m Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Month Input Output 29
30 Balancing Costs From 1 st November 211 to 31 st October 212 m Transporter Actions on OCM 2.35 Imbalance Charge Scheduling Charge - 4. Balancing Cost Balancing Costs November 211 to October Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 m Month OCM Imbalance Sched 3
31 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI From 1 st April 212 to 31 st October 212 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI April 212 to October , St Fergus 61,97 Teesside 11,795 Barrow 145 Theddlethorpe 9,31 Easington 117,575 Bacton 12,89 Other Net Revenue 212,533 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, St Fergus Teesside Barrow Theddlethorpe Easington Bacton Other 31
32 Capacity Neutrality Prompt Buy Backs From 1 st April 212 to 31 st October 212 ASEP Cost No. of Days Energy (kwh) St.Fergus. Teesside. Barrow. Theddlethorpe. Easington. Bacton. TOTAL. 32
33 Capacity Neutrality Capacity Management Agreement (Including RMTTSEC) From 1 st April 212 to 31 st October 212 Month Cost Apr-12. May-12. Jun-12. Jul-12. Aug-12. Sep-12. Oct-12. Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 TOTAL *. * Includes Total Capacity Constraint Management Costs implemented through MOD 349 [Introduction of a Force Majeure Capacity Management Arrangement]. 33
34 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from Locational Sells and PRI Charges From 1 st April 212 to 31 st October 212 Month Revenue Apr-12. May-12. Jun-12. Jul-12. Aug-12. Sep-12. Oct-12. Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 TOTAL. 34
35 Capacity Neutrality Revenues from Entry Cap Overruns and Non-Obligated Sales From 1 st April 212 to 31 st October 212 Month Entry Cap Overruns Non-Obligated Sales Apr-12-98, May-12-68,751 Jun-12-3 Jul-12-1,523 Aug-12-3,27 Sep-12-33,32 Oct-12-27,884-55,974 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 TOTAL - 241,625-55,986 35
36 Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue From 1 st April 212 to 31 st October 212 Month Revenue WDDSEC/DAI Revenue Buy Back Costs Capacity management Agreement Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue Non-Obligated Sales Revenue Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges Net Revenue - 212, ,625-55,986-51,144 36
37 Operational Overview November 13 th 212
38 Gas Supply Breakdown 1 st June 212 to 3 th September Gas Supply Breakdown 1st October 212 to 3th November mcm/d Oct-12 8-Oct Oct Oct Oct-12 5-Nov Nov Nov Nov-12 Gas Day UKCS Norw ay (est) LNG Imports BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS Supplies SRS Supplies MIPI [D+1 System Entry Volume 211] 38
39 Norwegian Flows 39
40 Norwegian Flows Norwegian Flow 12-13th November 4 6:7 7:17 8:27 9:42 1:52 12:2 13:23 14:33 15:43 16:53 18:3 19:18 2:28 21:38 22:49 23:59 1:14 2:24 3:34 4:44 5:54 7:9 8:2 9:3 1:4 11:5 16:25 17:36 18:46 19:56 21:6 22:16 23:31 :41 1:52 Timestamp France Belgium Germany UK Flow Volume (mcm/h)
41 Supply & Demand Profiles 13th November - Supply/Demand Profiles Supply (DFN) / Demand mcm 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: DFN Demand
42 Linepack th November - Linepack Linepack (mcm) 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: Actions and Shipper Nomination Imbalance (mcm) Action Taken Actual LP PCLP National Target LinePack
43 Hourly Nomination Imbalance 4 Hourly Nomination Imbalance : 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: : 1: 2: 3: 4: Imbalance (mcm)
44 Flows th November - Flows 44 Flow (mcm) 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: EASINGTON LANGELED GRAIN NTS 2 MILFORD HAVEN - SOUTH HOOK HOLFORD HOLE HOUSE FARM ALDBROUGH TOTAL SUPPLY
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