Macroeconomic Outlook. Presented by Dr. Bruce A. Scherr Chairman of the Board Chief Executive Officer Emeritus
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1 Macroeconomic Outlook Presented by Dr. Bruce A. Scherr Chairman of the Board Chief Executive Officer Emeritus Waterways Symposium Cincinnati, OH November 15-17, 2016
2 Topics Energy Macro Implications Inflation Interest Rates Exchange Rates Central Banks Global Growth US As The Centerpiece Emerged Economies Rest Of The World Risks 2 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
3 Energy Markets 3 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
4 1/1/1985 1/1/1986 1/1/1987 1/1/1988 1/1/1989 1/1/1990 1/1/1991 1/1/1992 1/1/1993 1/1/1994 1/1/1995 1/1/1996 1/1/1997 1/1/1998 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 Monthly ($/Barrel) 160 WTI Crude Oil Nearby Futures Prices Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
5 18% Major Poducers Percentage of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% US Russia Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia 5 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
6 1/1/1985 1/1/1986 1/1/1987 1/1/1988 1/1/1989 1/1/1990 1/1/1991 1/1/1992 1/1/1993 1/1/1994 1/1/1995 1/1/1996 1/1/1997 1/1/1998 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 Monthly ($/Gallon) 4.00 Gasoline (RBOB) Nearby Futures Prices Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
7 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Natural Gas Rigs 1,800 US Rotary Rig Counts 1,600 1,400 Oil Gas 1,200 1, Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
8 01/08/16 01/22/16 02/05/16 02/19/16 03/04/16 03/18/16 04/01/16 04/15/16 04/29/16 05/13/16 05/27/16 06/10/16 06/24/16 07/08/16 07/22/16 08/05/16 08/19/16 09/02/16 09/16/16 09/30/16 10/14/16 10/28/16 11/11/16 11/25/16 12/09/16 12/23/16 Thousand Barrels Per Day Thousand Barrels Per Day Gasoline Product Supplied 10,000 10,000 9,500 9,500 9,000 9,000 8,500 8,500 8,000 8,000 7,500 7,500 5-Year Range 2016 Record or Previous High 8 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
9 4-Jan 18-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 29-Feb 14-Mar 28-Mar 11-Apr 25-Apr 9-May 23-May 6-Jun 20-Jun 4-Jul 18-Jul 1-Aug 15-Aug 29-Aug 12-Sep 26-Sep 10-Oct 24-Oct 7-Nov 21-Nov 5-Dec 19-Dec Dollars per Gallon US Weekly Retail Gasoline Prices Source: DOE-EIA Year Average Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
10 Interest Rates 10 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
11 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 3 Month Libor London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) November 7, 2016 = Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
12 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percent U.S. Federal Funds Rate Source: FRB G.13 'Selected Interest Rates' Release 12 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
13 Interest Rate (Percent) 3.50 Yield Curve: 2016 Rates as of January 11, February 8, March 2, April 20, June 30, July 20, August 29 and November 7, Day T Bill 5-Yr. 10-Yr. 30-Yr. Maturity January 11 February 8 March 2 April 20 June 30 July 20 August 29 November 7 13 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
14 Exchange Rates 14 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
15 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q $ / Euro Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
16 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q $ / Sterling Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
17 U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators 17 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
18 18 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
19 19 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
20 20 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
21 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Percent U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Employment Situation 21 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
22 Annual %CH Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
23 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Percent Change 3.0 Retail Sales January September Vehicle Sales %CH Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
24 24 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
25 Risks 25 Informa Economics IEG Agribusiness Intelligence
26 Questions?
27 Informa Economics IEG 775 Ridge Lake Blvd Suite 400 Memphis, TN T E W info@informa.com
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