Atmospheric Emissions of Carbon Dioxide

Transcription

1 Atmospheric Emissions of Carbon Dioxide From Fossil Fuels some thoughts on the magnitude and distribution of emissions and the uncertainty of emissions estimates Pasadena, California March 1, 21 by Gregg Marland by Gregg Marland Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA

2 SLIDES AND IDEAS CONTRIBUTED BY Bob Andres ORNL, USA T.J. Blasing ORNL, USA Tom Boden ORNL, USA Antoinette Brenkert PNNL, USA Pep Canadell CSIRO, Australia Jay Gregg Univ. Maryland, USA Khrystyna Hamal Lviv Univ., Ukraine Matthias Jonas - IIASA, Austria Corinne Le Quéré Univ. of East Anglia, UK Jos Olivier RIVM, Netherlands Glen Peters CICERO, Norway

3 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget PgC CO flux (PgC y -1 2 ) Sink Sou urce fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO 2 land ocean (5 models) 2.3 (4 models) Time (y) Global Carbon Project 29; Le Quéré et al. 29, Nature Geoscience

4 Fossil Fuel Emissions and Cement Production [1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne = 1x1 15 g] ns (PgC y -1 ) CO 2 emission Growth rate: 1.% per year Growth rate: 3.4% per year 28: Emissions: 8.7 PgC Growth rate: 2.% 199 levels: +41% Growth rate: 3.4% Le Quéré et al. 29, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 29

5 Components of FF Emissions s (PgC y -1 ) CO 2 em missions Oil Gas Cement Coal 4% 36% Le Quéré et al. 29, Nature Geoscience

6 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total) ear ns per ye,) Emission ons x 1, Carbon E (to Russian Fed. China USA India Japan Time Global Carbon Project 29; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 29

7 Cumulative Fraction of Total FF Emissions 28 Number of Country Cumulative Countries Fraction 1 China USA India Russia.53 5 Japan Germany Canada UK South Korea Iran Poland.8 5 (25) Belarus (25) Moldova Gregg Marland, CDIAC countries 5% Global Emissions 1 countries 2/3 Global Emissions Top 5 + EU 8% Global Emissions

8 Regional Shift in Emissions Share nual Emis ssions Percen ntage of Global An 62% 38% FCCC 57% 43% Kyoto Protocol Adopted 49.7% 5.3% Kyoto Protocol Enter into Force 47% Current

9 Per Capita CO 2 Emissions Per Ca apita Em missions (t tc person -1 y -1 ) Developed countries continue to lead with the highest emission per capita Le Quéré et al. 29, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 29

10 Sources of CO 2 from FF by sector - 26 USA China Germany Sweden Total (Mt C) Utilities (%) Other energy (%) Transport (%) Industry and construction (%) Other (%) (residential) (5) (4) (15) (2) CO 2 /cap (t C/cap) CO 2 /GDP (t C/$ PPP) (from IEA, 28)

11 Sources of US anthropogenic CO 2 emissions i - 26 Fossil fuel combustion Tg C Non-energy use of fossil fuels 37.6 Iron and steel manufacture 13.4 Cement production 12.5 Gas flaring/venting/leakage 7.8 Other industrial processes 22.9 Total From US EPA, 28

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14 Fraction of fossil fuel use - 2 Non-fuel uses = 5.8% Bunker fuels = 3.2%

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16 USA Japan EU27 (ex. Malta) Russian Federation China CO2 per year (billion tons)

17 year (tons s) CO O2 per per capita per Net emissions embodied in trade Tree vegetation sink Domestic fossil and process emissions Net CO2 responsibility -5 Figure 1: Domestic fossil and cement emissions averaged 23-25, tree

18 7.25 Per Capita Emissions (Tonne C/person/yr) (Tg C/mo) Emissions Winter Gas Summer Gas Winter Petrol. Summer Petrol. Winter Coal Summer Coal

19 2.25 Per Capita Emissions (Tonne C/person/yr) Emissions (Tg C/mo) Winter Gas Summer Gas Winte er Petrol. Summ mer Petrol. Winter Coal Summer Coal

20 Total Oil Gas Coal Canada Fossil-Fuel Carbon Emissions 2 (Tg C/mo)

21 a.) North America Total Oil Coal Gas b.) U.S Total Oil Coal Gas ssions (Tg C/month) ssions (Tg C/month) Emis Emis lts c.) Canada 18 2 Total Oil G d.) Mexico 18 2 Total Oil G esul C/month) Gas Coal C/month) Gas Coal e Re Emissions (Tg Emissions (Tg mple Sam

22 Seasonal Cycle of North America C Emissions from Natural Gas, by Latitude N 55 N 5 N 45 N 4 N 35 N 3 N 2-25 N in Estimated C Emissions vs. Flat Distrib bution (%) 5 Difference -5-1 North South J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N 22

23 North America Emissions from Petroleum tion of Annual Emissions Proport Monthly distribution follows number of days per month: but... Month 23

24 Seasonal Cycle of North America C Emissions from Petroleum, by Longitude W 12 W 11 W 1 W 9 W 8 W 7 W 6 W in Estimated C Emissions vs. Flat Distrib bution (%) 1 Difference -1-2 West J M M J S N 24 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N East

25 in Estimated C Em missions (%) Difference i 1 5 Natural Gas N N Petroleum Coal N N N N N N Total N S

26 in Estimated C Em missions (%) Difference i 1 5 Natural Gas W W Petroleum Coal W W W W W W Total E W

27 7W 8W 6W 9W 11W 75N 7N 12W 65N 6N 55N 13W Max Difference in Mean Total Monthly Emissions (t C/km 2 ) N 45N 4N 35N 3N 25N 2N 16 6W 15W 14 4W Sample Results 1W

28 Insight into uncertainty of CO 2 emissions i estimates 1 compare estimates by independent methods 2 compare estimates by different analysts 3 compare estimates t by the same analyst over time

29 Input Data: Emissions Inventories 18 US Emissions from Fossil Fuel (Gas, Petroleum, Coal) Consumption CDIAC BP EIA Blasing State by State Blasing US Monthly Emissions (kt C/year)

30 Input Data: Emissions Inventories 4 Canada Annual Emissionsfrom Coal BP StatCAN CDIAC Coal C Emissions (kt C/year)

31 CO 2 emissions in millions of metric tons of carbon COUNTRY USA CDIAC 135 IEA 132 USEPA 1316 CDIAC 151 IEA 1497 USEPA 1478 CDIAC 158 IEA 1545 USEPA 1534 CANADA CDIAC 112 IEA 117 Canada 117 CDIAC 119 IEA 136 Canada 133 CDIAC 139 IEA 145 Canada 144 MEXICO CDIAC 99 IEA 8 Mexico 81 CDIAC 96 IEA 96 Mexico 96 CDIAC 1 IEA 1 Mexico NA SOCCR Report, 27

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38 Initial emissions estimates 345 The most recent emission estimates Emissions (T Tg) CO 2 emissions without LULUCF estimates. Data from: European Community National Inventory Reports.

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40 Revisions of Global Total Emissions

41 CO2 from China, revisions fractional change from initial estimate

42 Revisions of Global Total without China