Special Review Draft report on future emissions reduction targets for Australia. Shayleen Thomson, Acting CEO 29 April 2015

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1 Special Review Draft report on future emissions reduction targets for Australia Shayleen Thomson, Acting CEO 29 April 2015

2 Special Review Minister for Environment requested a Special Review, with three tasks: Draft report on future emissions targets To inform government decisions due mid-year Draft report on whether Australia should have an emissions trading scheme by end November Final report recommending action Australia should take to implement outcomes from the Paris Summit by end June

3 Target recommendations 2020 TARGET Australia should go beyond a 5% reduction below 2000 levels. The Authority s previous recommendation remains appropriate: 19% by POST-2020 TARGETS 30% below 2000 levels by % below 2000 levels by

4 Key considerations for setting targets 4

5 2025 target: 30 per cent below % Mt CO2-e Historical emissions - 30% -40% 200 5% at 2020 then recommended goals -60% Source: Historical greenhouse gas emissions: (DoE, 2015). 5

6 Budget usage (37 years) 10,100 Mt CO 2 -e Source: Draft report Figure 8 6

7 Budget usage (8 years) 4,465 Mt CO 2 -e Source: Draft report Figure 8 7

8 Budget usage (8 years) 4,465 Mt CO 2 -e (5 years) 2,235 Mt CO 2 -e Source: Draft report Figure 8 8

9 Budget usage Post-2025 (25 years) 3,411 Mt CO 2 -e (8 years) 4,465 Mt CO 2 -e (5 years) 2,235 Mt CO 2 -e Source: Draft report Figure 8 9

10 Post-2020 targets announced to date Country Target China Peak CO 2 emissions around 2030 United States 26 to 28% below 2005 by 2025 European Union At least 40% below 1990 by 2030 Germany 55% below 1990 by 2030 Norway At least 40% below 1990 by 2030 Switzerland 50% below 1990 by 2030 United Kingdom 50% below 1990 over Mexico 25% below baseline by 2030 Gabon 25% below baseline by 2025 Russia 25% below 1990 by

11 Countries have met their targets Source: Draft report Figure 1 11

12 United States climate action 2025 target of per cent below 2005 levels Approximately doubles rate of reductions compared to the 2020 target President s Climate Plan Clean Air Act to limit emissions from new and existing coal fired power stations Vehicle standards Tax credits for renewable energy and electric vehicles State action Emissions trading schemes in 10 states Renewable energy mandates in most states 12

13 China s climate action CO 2 emissions peak around 2030 Goal to increase the share of non-fossil fuel energy to 20 per cent by 2030 Relevant policies include: Renewable energy mandates Major expansion of renewable power generation Planned national ETS scheme (7 regional pilots) Mandatory closure of inefficient coal plants Caps on total energy consumption and on coal 13

14 India s climate action Post-2020 pledge expected by September National Action Plan on Climate Change Target for renewable energy capacity: Total: 175 GW by 2022 Solar: 100 GW Wind: 60 GW Small-scale hydro: 5 GW Energy efficiency target, supported by a baseline and credit trading scheme. 14

15 Capacity to reduce emissions Source: Draft report Figure 2 15

16 Comparing responsibility Emissions per person (t/ person) Switzerland Norway UK EU Germany US Australia Emissions intensity (t/ $m GDP PPP) Norway Switzerland UK Germany EU US Australia 2005 level 2025 target projection Source: Draft report Figure 3 16

17 Comparing responsibility and effort Emissions per person (t/ person) % - 38% - 48% - 26% - 34% - 48% - 27% Switzerland Norway UK EU Germany US Australia Emissions intensity (t/ $m GDP PPP) % - 59% - 60% - 50% -45% -50% -66% 0 Norway Switzerland UK Germany EU US Australia 2005 level 2025 target projection Source: Draft report Figure 3 17

18 Comparing reductions over time 20 Norway EU US UK Germany Australia Switzerland % change in total emissions by 2025 from 1990 base % % -30% -31% -35% % -48% Reduction Required reduction Source: Draft report Figure 6 18

19 Emissions trajectories to 2 degrees goal 120 Per cent of 1990 levels degree range US - historical EU - historical Australia - historical Australia - 5% target US - to 2025 target EU - to 2030 target Australia - CCA Recommendations Source: Draft report Figure 7 19

20 Australia s 2025 target against different reference years 650 Historical emissions and trajectory to recommended target 600 Emissions (MtCO 2 -e) CCA 2025 target level 31% 30% 36% 32% 30% 350 below below below below below Source: Draft report Figure 4 20

21 Next steps The report is on the Authority s website: submissions are welcome. submissions@climatechangeauthority.gov.au The Authority may make a further statement after consultation with stakeholders. The second draft report on emissions trading schemes and other policies: November Final report recommending Australian actions after the Paris conference: June

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