World Geographic Shares

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2 World Geographic Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia/ Oceania 18% 13% 7% 22% 33% 6%

3 World Population Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia/ Oceania 6% 8% 12% 13% 61%.5%

4 World GDP Shares North America South America Europe Africa Asia Australia/ Oceania 38% 4% 28% 2% 27% 1%

5 Relative Growth Rates Real GDP Growth China Japan United States European Union Latin America

6 Relative Unemployment Rates China N/A Japan United States European Union N/A Latin America N/A

7 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Index

8 U.S. Unemployment Rate Percent

9 U.S. Total Debt Outstanding Percent of GDP Projections

10 Is the World Threatened by U.S. Percent of GDP -35 Budget Deficits? Projections

11 U.S. Energy Consumption Gasoline, Fuel Oil, and Other Energy Goods Percent of GDP Gasoline and Oil Fuel Oil and Coal

12 Index 1977= World Crude Oil Price

13 World Energy Consumption Quadrillion Btu 7 6 Projections

14 Percent of World Total 12 Oil Reserves Selected Countries and Region Percent of World Total 75 1 Former U.S.S.R (L) Middle East (R) 7 8 Venezuela (L) United States (L) Russia (L) China (L)

15 U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices US$/Gallon Real (24 dollars) Projections Nominal

16 Index 2=1 12 Dow Jones Industrial Average /11 event

17 Index 23= Rising Middle East Markets Since Fall of Baghdad Iraq War Qatar Kuwait Saudi Arabia Egypt Israel Jordan Oman U.A.E Bahrain 1 Lebanon 5 JAN 23 JAN 24

18 EU Real GDP Growth Percent

19 EU Unemployment Rate Percent

20 EU Additional Age-Related in Public Spending Percent of GDP Total additional agerelated spending Of which pensions Of which health Of which long-term care Of which education Of which child benefits

21 EU Estimated Change in Deficits and Debt Austria France Germany Greece Netherlands Portugal Spain Memo: United States Deficit (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP)

22 Is Japan Recovering? Percent Change in GDP, Year Ago

23 Relative Growth Rate Comparisons Percent Change in GDP, Year Ago 25 2 Japan 15 Germany 1 5 United States

24 Is Deflation a Problem in Japan? Percent Change in CPI, Year Ago

25 Japan Unemployment Rate Percent

26 Percent Japan vs. United States Unemployment Rate United States Japan

27 Japan Land Prices Index 2= Six Largest Cities Land prices fall for 13 straight years Nationwide

28 US$ Billions 2 China vs. Japan Exports to the United States 15 1 Japan s Exports to the United States 5 China s Exports to the United States

29 2 1 China More Than Two Decades Percent Change in RGDP, Year Ago of Growth 21 Member of WTO Cultural Revolution 199 Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges established

30 China Avoids Asian Financial Crisis Percent Change in RGDP, Year Ago China Korea Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Thailand

31 China s Financial System Ample Room for Growth World Total Percent of Total Accounted for by: China Japan United States European Union Population 6.1 billion GDP $31.1 trillion Bank Assets $36.9 trillion Equity Market Capitalization $27.8 trillion Bonds Outstanding $31.6 trillion

32 China - Unemployment Rate Increases Percent

33 6 China Surge in Foreign Direct US$ Billions Investment US$ Billions Annual FDI (L) Cumulative FDI (R)

34 US$ Billions 4 3 China Rise in World Trade Exports to the World Imports from the World Trade Balance

35 US$ Billions China Rise in Exports to the United States Exports to the United States Imports from the United States Trade Balance

36 China Trade with European Union US$ Billions Exports to European Union Imports from European Union Trade Balance

37 US$ Billions China Trade with Developing Europe Countries Exports to Developing Europe Imports from Developing Europe Trade Balance

38 15 Is India s Economic Growth Percent Change in GDP Sustainable? 1 Real Nominal

39 Top 1 Leading Economies in 25 Country China United States India Japan Brazil Russia United Kingdom Germany France Italy Current GDP (US$ Trillion)

40 Share of GDP Rises in BRICs Percent of Combined BRICs and G6 GDP 1 8 G6 (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US) BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China)

41 5 China Passes Japan, Germany and Nominal GDP, US$ Trillions United States 4 China 3 2 United States India 1 Japan Germany

42 Percent 1 Highest Growth for India RGDP Growth 8 6 China India 4 2 Brazil Russia

43 Burden on Working Age Population Percent of Working Age (15-64) 1 Forecast Dependency Ratio 9 Japan United States

44 Dependents - Developed Countries Percent of Working Age (15-64) 8 6 Forecast Dependency Ratio Aged -14 Aged

45 Dependents - Developing Countries Percent of Working Age (15-64) 8 6 Forecast Dependency Ratio Aged -14 Aged

46 Percent of Working Age (15-64) 85 8 Dependency Burden Forecast Dependency Ratio Developing Countries Developed Countries

47 US$ Trillions Global Futures Market Notional Amounts Interest Rate (L) US$ Billions Equity Index (R) Currency (R)

48 US$ Trillions 25 2 Global Options Market Notional Amounts Interest Rate (L) US$ Billions Currency (R) Equity Index (L)

49 Global Credit Derivatives Market US$ Trillions

50 Millions 2. Immigration to the United States

51 Immigration to the United States Percent Change, Year Ago

52 Global Macro Themes From the Perspective of an Investor

53 Return to Above-Trend Growth Annual % Change 5 World Economic Output* Forecast avg H1 23 H2 24/25 * Real GDP (at PPP exchange rates)

54 Uneven Global Growth Contributionns to Global Growth Percent of World GDP Growth Accounted for by Selected Regions* Percent 9 75 US & China EU & Japan * at market exchange rates

55 Strategic Outlook: Lower Asset Returns in the Long-Run Financial Returns in 198s and 199s Were Abnormally High Percent US Equities US Gov't Bonds

56 Near -Term Tactical Outlook Slight Underweight Bonds Slight Overweight Equities - Non-US - Emerging Markets Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields to Rise