Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific

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1 Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific Aiming Zhou Senior Energy Specialist Asian Development Bank Nov, 2013

2 Coverage of the Outlook Time Frame: Geographic Coverage: Developing Asia o Central and West Asia o East Asia o Pacific o South Asia o Southeast Asia Developed Group: (Australia; Japan; and New Zealand) Main Content: 1. Energy supply and demand outlook 2. Electricity outlook 3. CO2 emissions outlook 4. Energy investment outlook 5. Policy implications

3 ADB s Developing Member Countries (DMCs) 3

4 Key Findings

5 constant 2000 $ billion 1. Fast Economic Growth ( ) Projection: Annual GDP Growth 4.1% in the region 40, ,000 20,000 10,000 0 Asia and the Pacific Central and West Asia East Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast Asia Developed Group

6 million persons Population in Asia and the Pacific will increase by 706 million persons, at an average rate of 0.7% per annum. 6,000 4, ,000 0 Asia and the Pacific Central and West Asia East Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast Asia Developed 6 Group

7 Mtoe 2. Primary Energy Growth at 2.1%/yr ( ) Fossil fuels still supply the majority 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear NRE

8 toe/ constant 2000 $ million 3. Energy Intensity Improvement Over Time 2,000 1,500 1, DMCs Central and West Asia East Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast Asia Developed Group Asia and the Pacific Total

9 Mtoe 4. Increasing Energy Demand Projection: Final energy demand increase at 2.1% /yr 2010: 3,238.5 Mtoe ; 2035: 5,400.9 Mtoe; 6,000 4,000 2, Industry Transport Other Non-Energy *Other including residential, commercial, agriculture and fishery

10 GW 5. Generation Capacity: Doubled btw 2010 &2035 Installed Generating Capacity 2010: 1,869 GW 2035: 3,828 GW 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Central and West Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Pacific

11 Electricity: Doubled btw 2010 &2035 (3.4%/yr) 2010: 7,010 TWh; 2035: 16,169 TWh; 12,000 10,000 TWh 9, ,000 6,000 4,000 2, Central and West Asia 4, ,762 1, East Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast Asia 1,439 1,243 Developed Group

12 GW 2,500 Electricity by sub-region 2,000 1,500 1, Central and West Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Pacific Central and West Asia East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Pacific Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro NRE

13 GMS Power Trade and Net Imports, 2010 (GWh)

14 TWh 6. Fossil Fuels Still Dominates Electricity Mix 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro NRE

15 Increased Fuel Inputs to Power Generation

16 Mt CO2 25, CO 2 Emission ( ) Average growth rate = 2.0% 2010: 13,404.0 million tons 2020: 16,184.8 million tons 2035: 22,112.6 million tons 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Central and West Asia East Asia Pacific South Asia Southeast Asia Developed Group

17 8. Projected Investment in Energy Sector by 2035 Cumulative investments by 2035 : $11.7 trillion More investment in developing members Developed Southeast Asia South Asia Pacific East Asia Central and West Asia $ 38.4 billion $ billion $ 1,709.2 billion $ 1,343.6 billion $ 2,416.1 billion Oil Natural Gas Coal Electricity/Heat $ 5,771.4 billion 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 $ billion (constant, 2006 prices)

18 8,000 7, Energy Saving and CO2 Mitigation Potential Mtoe 9,000 By 2035, BAU vs Alternative Primary energy savings: 1,295.2 Mtoe CO2 emissions reduction: Mt Developed Group Southeast Asia South Asia Pacific East Asia Central and West Asia Primary Energy Savings BAU: 8,358.3 Mtoe Potential Savings 1,295.2 Mtoe 6,000 5,000 Alternative Case: 7,063.1 Mtoe 4,

19 Cumulative Investment ($, trillion, constant 2006 prices) 25.0 $ 19.9 trillion Industry $ 11.7 trillion Demand side additional investment: $7.3 trillion Commercial Residential Transport 10.0 Distribution 5.0 Supply side investment: $12.6 trillion Energy Transportation 0.0 BAU ALT Transformation Extraction/Pro duction Investment requirements for BAU and Alternative Cases 19

20 Policy Implications 1. Energy Security: continue reply upon imported fossil fuel, such as oil and gas 2. Demand for coal will grow by 50% for economic and technical needs but at slower pace due to EE and RE development in PRC 3. Demand side energy-efficiency is very important 4. Rehabilitate and/or phase out aging, unreliable, and low efficiency power plants 5. Regional cooperation is needed 6. Large amounts of investments is required

21 -statistics-asia-and-pacific

22 Thanks

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