UEIL Annual Congress of the European Lubricants Industry Vienna, October 2010
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1 UEIL Annual Congress of the European Lubricants Industry Vienna, October 2010 The State of the Lubricants Industry in 2010: End of the Crisis or Beginning of a New Decade? - Old Challenges / New Frontiers - Speaker: Apu Gosalia Head of Global Strategic Marketing Co-Author: Simone Binder Specialist Global Strategic Marketing
2 Agenda Markets Mergers Movements
3 Development Global Lubricants Market (without marine oils) Demand in mn t: Variance in %:
4 Regional Breakdown Global Lubricants Market Global Lubricants Demand 2009: 32.8 mn t Western Europe 11.3% Latin America 8.4% Middle East 5.7% Africa 5.6% Asia-Pacific 39.4% Central/Eastern Europe 11.1% North America 18.5%
5 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Global Ranking Top 20 Lubricants Markets (demand 2009 in KT) India Brazil Germany Korea UK Iran Mexico France Canada Indonesia Thailand Taiwan Italy Australia Spain Turkey Japan Russia USA China
6 Regional Development & Forecast Global Lubricants Market 35.8 mn t 36.0 mn t* 32.8 mn t 26.2% 22.5% 22.4% 27.5% 35.3% 26.9% Europe Americas Asia-Pacific & ROW 38.5% 50.7% 50.0% * *estimate
7 Agenda Markets Mergers Movements
8 Development & Structure Global Lubricants Industry (number of manufacturers) "Majors" 1,500 1, "Independents" 590 mid-90s
9 Global M&A Activity (number of deals) All Sectors Lubricants Sector I-III I-III 2010
10 Global M&A Activity Lubricants Sector (number of deals 2005) FUCHS PETROLUB acquired OVOLINE LUBRICANTS TOTAL bought African lubricants business of EXXON MOBIL KKR Investment bought FL SELENIA I-III 2010 ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS bought METAL MATES
11 Global M&A Activity Lubricants Sector (number of deals 2006) AXEL CHRISTIERNSSON acquired SHELL s Christol Grease JASON acquired Lippert-Unipol from FUCHS PETROLUB I-III 2010 SHELL acquired 75% of BEIJING TONGYI in China CHEMTURA acquired HATCO & ANDEROL from Kaufman
12 Global M&A Activity Lubricants Sector (number of deals 2007) FUCHS PETROLUB acquired IGUCIMA s forging lube business FUCHS PETROLUB acquired TRIBOTECNICA s greases I-III 2010 CONDAT purchased HENKEL s wire drawing lube business PETRONAS acquired FL SELENIA from KKR Investment
13 Global M&A Activity Lubricants Sector (number of deals 2008) MILLER INDUSTRIAL FLUIDS acquired CRESCENT OIL HOUGHTON acquired D.A. STUART I-III 2010 FUCHS PETROLUB acquired MS FLUID TECHNOLOGIES TOTAL Lubricants North America acquired LUBRICANTS USA
14 Global M&A Activity Lubricants Sector (number of deals 2009) PRISTA OIL bought 92% of BOGDANY PETROL FUCHS PETROLUB acquired DYLON INDUSTRIES I-III 2010 SHELL sold Greek downstream business to MOTOR OIL TOTAL Lubricants Canada acquired ULTRAMAR s lube business
15 Global M&A Activity Lubricants Sector (number of deals 2010) QUAKER CHEMICAL acquired former D.A. STUART s US aluminium hot rolling business from HOUGHTON I-III 2010 FUCHS acquired SHELL s global food-grade lube business SHELL is in negotiations to sell majority stake of downstream business in 19 African countries to Vitol & Helios Investment
16 Agenda Markets Mergers Movements
17 Movements CIS Commonwealth of Independent States FSU Former Soviet Union
18 Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine Movements
19 CIS Commonwealth of Independent States Movements
20 Movements CIS believed to be one of the fastest-growing lubricant markets in the world Kazakhstan opened its first lube blending plant in 2010 lube quality improved in the past 5 years Turkmenistan plans to double Group II base oil capacity to 160 KT... with 16 base oil refineries CIS accounts for 10% of global base oil capacity volume
21 Country Clusters CIS Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Armenia, Georgia CIS BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China Russia G8 France, USA, UK, Russia, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada BRIC G8
22 Population Breakdown 2009 G8 22% CIS 7% BRIC 71%
23 GDP Breakdown 2009 CIS 4% BRIC 21% G8 75%
24 Mineral Oil Demand Breakdown 2009 CIS 7% BRIC 30% G8 63%
25 Development Population (Index 2000 = 100%) CIS BRIC G I-III 2010
26 Development GDP (Index 2000 = 100%) CIS BRIC G I-III 2010
27 Development Mineral Oil Demand (Index 2000 = 100%) CIS BRIC G I-III 2010
28 Mineral Oil Market vs. Lubricants Market Global Breakdown 2009 Global Mineral Oil Market Global Lubricants Market G8 63% 7% CIS 67% 67% G8 50% 9% CIS 30% 41% BRIC BRIC 33% 33%
29 Conclusion The State of the Lubricants Industry in 2010: End of the Crisis or Beginning of a New Decade? - Old Challenges / New Frontiers -
30 Sources AllBusiness Base Oil Report Börsen-Zeitung BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 Bureau van Dijk Cove Partners Dubai Business Pages Financial Times Germany Trade & Invest ICIS International Monetary Fund International Energy Agency Kline & Company Lubes n Greases Lube Report MergerMarket Ost-West-Contact PricewaterhouseCoopers UniCredit Research Zephyr
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