World Oil Outlook A Perspective from OPEC

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1 World Oil Outlook A Perspective from OPEC Dr. Fuad Siala OPEC Secretariat Transport, Energy & Fuels Working Together for a Sustainable Future Brussels, Belgium May 8-1, 27

2 Energy demand by fuel type Gas mtoe Oil Coal Hydro/nuclear/renewables Fossil fuels will continue to provide >9% of commercial energy needs Oil continues to have the greatest share

3 World oil demand in the reference case, OECD DCs of which in Asia Transition economies World Oil demand grows by 1.4 annually, and by Developing countries consumption doubles, accounts for 86% of global increase 23 per capita oil use: DCs 3.2 b/cap; OECD 15.2 b/cap; World 5.2 b/cap

4 Transportation remains the key sector Transportation Industry Household/Commercial Energy Sector Marine Bunkers

5 World oil supply in the reference case, Non-OPEC crude nonconventional/biofuels processing gains OPEC NGLs/non-conv crude World Non-OPEC crude supply plateaus at 48 then falls Non-conventional oil and biofuels increase by 8 by 23 Strong rise in OPEC NGLs Little room for additional OPEC crude oil until after 21 By 23, OPEC crude supply increases by 18

6 OPEC crude oil production: Response to strong demand growth OPEC OPEC cumulative change (since 22)

7 OPEC crude production capacity is increasing

8 Major uncertainties concerning required OPEC crude volumes 45 4 High case Reference case Low case

9 This translates into uncertainties over OPEC investment needs $(26) billion High case Reference case Low case

10 Average automotive diesel price and tax in Europe* 1.2 Euro/liter Price excl. tax Tax Weighted by road transport consumption for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and UK. Weights for 25 and 26 are estimated.

11 Biofuels supply evolution in two scenarios Reference case Higher scenario

12 Distillation capacity additions* USA/ Canada Latin America * Existing projects only, excl. capacity creep Africa Europe FSU Middle East Asia/ Pacific

13 Cumulative distillation capacity additions vs. incremental refinery runs range of cumulative incremental refinery crude runs cumulative distillation capacity additions Downside risks on projected incremental crude runs are increasing

14 Global demand by product Ethane LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Gasoil/ Resid Fuel* Other ** * Includes refinery fuel oil. Diesel ** Includes bitumen, lubricants, waxes, still gas, coke, sulphur, direct use of crude oil t

15 Additional desulphurization capacity requirements 22 vs VGO/Resid Gasoline Distillates USA/ Canada Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East Asia/ Pacific

16 Refinery investments maintenance/capacity replacement additions required over existing projects additions through existing projects billion US$(25) USA/ Canada Latin America Africa Europe FSU Middle East Asia/ Pacific

17 Concluding remarks Oil will continue to be the leading source in the global energy mix OPEC continues to offer adequate levels of spare capacity and invest in the downstream Security of demand and security of supply Investments in idle capacity waste precious financial resources OPEC s attitude and actions are influenced by the search for the right balance Balance needs to be pursued on all fronts

18 Thank you

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