280 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook. World Cotton

Transcription

1 WORLD COTTON

2 280 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook World Cotton The 2004/05 crop can be characterized simply as record breaking. A record 35.8 mha of cotton were harvested, producing a record crop of 25.2 mmt of cotton. In such an instance one might expect a complete collapse in prices; however, record consumption of 22.8 mmt in 2004/05 has kept the year s anticipated A-index price at $1,146 per mt. Chinese cotton production, while a record, was not at unprecedented levels in 2004/05. However, the next closest production year in 1984/85 took more than 20% additional area to get there. That exceptional 2004/05 crop of 6.3 mmt is still well short of the anticipated 2004/05 consumption of 8.0 mmt. Chinese consumption of fibers has moved sharply higher in the last several years with the phasing out of textile quotas under WTO agreements. Quota eliminations have benefited Chinese textile producers. Consumption, while slowing in the long run, is expected to grow significantly, reaching 10.3 mmt by 2014/15. The Chinese have significantly reduced cotton stocks over the last decade, leaving much of the increase in consumption to be met by imports. Net imports were 1.9 mmt in 2004/05; they reach 3.4 mmt in 2014/15. The increase in demand by China will be met in part by increased area in Brazil. Estimated at 1.1 mha in 2004/05, area is expected to expand to 1.7 mha by 2014/15. s in Brazil are also above the world average, at 1,190 kg per ha, and are expected to expand to 1,231 kg per ha by 2014/15. The additional area, coupled with impressive yields, results in production that reaches 2.1 mmt by the end of the forecast period, and net exports of 1.1 mmt, more than two and a half times the volume in 2004/05. Canada, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, among others, are expected to see declining mill use under pressure from textile production in China. As a group, these five countries fall from 1.2 mmt of consumption in 2004/05 to 0.9 mmt of consumption by 2014/15. India and Pakistan are expected to expand mill use, both for domestic consumption as well as for textile good exports, with utilization reaching 3.9 mmt and 2.6 mmt, respectively, by 2014/15. These two south Asian countries are in a better competitive situation and may also specialize in the production of semi-manufactured products to feed China s final assembly sector. U.S. cotton producers also had a record year in 2004/05, producing 5.0 mmt with an average yield of 947 kg per ha, also a record. Area is anticipated to decline modestly throughout the forecast period, falling to 4.8 mha by 2014/15. Cotton mill use in the U.S., estimated at 1.3 mmt in 2004/05, has been falling for several years. With the elimination of textile quotas and the importation of large quantities of foreign-produced apparel and home furnishings products, domestic producers are expected to experience additional competitive pressures, with U.S. mill use falling to 912 tmt by the end of the projection period. With the loss of domestic consumers for their production, U.S. cotton farmers increasingly rely on world markets to sell their cotton. Therefore, exports are expected to become the dominant force in U.S. cotton demand, with net exports reaching 3.3 mmt by 2014/15.

3 World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook / 281 Cotton Trade Net Exporters Argentina Australia Brazil Other Africa Other CIS Other Middle East United States Uzbekistan Total Net Exports * ,039 1,092 1,126 1,268 1,314 1,333 1,339 1,359 1,378 1,395 1,411 1,428 1, ,748 2,953 2,915 2,964 3,046 3,125 3,152 3,172 3,215 3,263 3, ,866 6,400 6,620 6,846 7,024 7,196 7,320 7,430 7,551 7,693 7,858 Net Importers Canada China European Union India Indonesia Japan Mexico Other Asia Other Europe Other Latin America Pakistan Russia South Africa South Korea Taiwan Turkey Residual Total Net Imports ,881 2,190 2,374 2,622 2,819 2,988 3,089 3,164 3,246 3,319 3, ,097 1,053 1,069 1,083 1,100 1,123 1,146 1,167 1,186 1,209 1, ,866 6,400 6,620 6,846 7,024 7,196 7,320 7,430 7,551 7,693 7,858 Prices Cotlook A Index ** CIF Northern Europe U.S. Farm Price (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) 1,146 1,190 1,207 1,212 1,236 1,288 1,323 1,334 1,348 1,378 1, ,002 1,007 1,020 1,060 1,098 1,122 1,139 1,165 1,203 * Total net exports are the sum of all positive net exports and negative net imports. ** The "A" index is the average of the five lowest CIF Northern European quotes of the following descriptions (Middling 1-3/32"): Memphis; Calif./Ariz.; Mexican; Central American; Paraguayan; Turkish Izmir/Antalya; Central Asian; Pakistani 1503; Indian H-4; Chinese 329; African 'Franc Zone'; Tanzanian; Greek; and Australian. Source: Cotlook, Ltd., Liverpool, England.

4 282 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook World Cotton Supply and Utilization Stocks-to-Use Ratio 35,770 33,929 34,564 35,095 35,394 35,590 35,901 36,154 36,314 36,426 36, ,176 22,815 23,500 24,072 24,479 24,794 25,185 25,537 25,836 26,105 26,369 22,779 23,130 23,531 23,929 24,375 24,829 25,221 25,521 25,820 26,131 26,431 10,262 10,059 10,142 10,398 10,614 10,692 10,768 10,897 11,025 11,112 11, (Percent) U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization 5,286 5,071 4,942 5,028 5,035 4,976 4,908 4,875 4,874 4,854 4, ,009 5,005 4,090 4,020 4,122 4,162 4,144 4,120 4,123 4,154 4,169 4, ,672 1,526 1,408 1,395 1,383 1,324 1,259 1,214 1,191 1,161 5,769 5,762 5,546 5,530 5,557 5,528 5,444 5,382 5,368 5,360 5,319 1,349 1,283 1,224 1,171 1,128 1,078 1, ,672 1,526 1,408 1,395 1,383 1,324 1,259 1,214 1,191 1,161 1,113 3,021 2,809 2,632 2,566 2,511 2,402 2,292 2,210 2,154 2,097 2,025 2,748 2,953 2,915 2,964 3,046 3,125 3,152 3,172 3,215 3,263 3,294

5 World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook / 283 Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization ,675 1,730 1,742 1,755 1,768 1,780 1,793 1,806 1,819 1,832 1, ,088 1,135 1,167 1,196 1,225 1,254 1,284 1,312 1, Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization 1,070 1,184 1,323 1,413 1,453 1,484 1,530 1,587 1,639 1,689 1,745 1,190 1,185 1,190 1,195 1,200 1,205 1,210 1,215 1,220 1,225 1,231 1,274 1,403 1,575 1,688 1,744 1,788 1,851 1,928 2,000 2,070 2,148 1,004 1,049 1,117 1,217 1,305 1,372 1,422 1,474 1,533 1,594 1,654 2,277 2,452 2,692 2,905 3,050 3,160 3,273 3,402 3,534 3,664 3, ,015 1,049 1,117 1,217 1,305 1,372 1,422 1,474 1,533 1,594 1,654 1,717 1,941 2,009 2,112 2,206 2,282 2,345 2,412 2,488 2,566 2,646 2, ,039 1,

6 284 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization 5,700 5,309 5,494 5,568 5,643 5,693 5,750 5,763 5,750 5,737 5,722 1,108 1,135 1,144 1,152 1,161 1,170 1,179 1,188 1,197 1,206 1,215 6,314 6,025 6,283 6,416 6,552 6,660 6,778 6,845 6,881 6,918 6,952 1,708 1,887 1,808 1,849 1,972 2,096 2,164 2,213 2,273 2,318 2,341 8,022 7,913 8,091 8,265 8,524 8,757 8,942 9,058 9,154 9,235 9,293 8,016 8,294 8,616 8,915 9,247 9,581 9,818 9,949 10,083 10,213 10,330 1,887 1,808 1,849 1,972 2,096 2,164 2,213 2,273 2,318 2,341 2,345 9,903 10,102 10,465 10,886 11,343 11,745 12,031 12,222 12,401 12,554 12,676-1,881-2,190-2,374-2,622-2,819-2,988-3,089-3,164-3,246-3,319-3,382 European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization ,077 1,070 1,076 1,083 1,089 1,095 1,102 1,108 1,115 1,122 1, ,

7 World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook / 285 Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization 9,000 8,741 8,872 9,007 9,092 9,158 9,255 9,351 9,417 9,454 9, ,310 3,164 3,247 3,332 3,400 3,462 3,537 3,613 3,678 3,733 3, ,047 1,009 1,036 1,067 1,089 1,103 1,125 1,151 1,173 1,191 4,194 4,211 4,255 4,368 4,467 4,551 4,640 4,738 4,828 4,906 4,974 3,161 3,228 3,298 3,363 3,422 3,490 3,568 3,658 3,747 3,835 3,920 1,047 1,009 1,036 1,067 1,089 1,103 1,125 1,151 1,173 1,191 1,206 4,208 4,237 4,334 4,430 4,510 4,593 4,693 4,809 4,921 5,026 5, Indonesian Cotton Supply and Utilization Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization

8 286 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization ,140 1,180 1,189 1,198 1,207 1,216 1,225 1,234 1,243 1,253 1, Other African Cotton Supply and Utilization 5,457 5,195 5,268 5,316 5,349 5,388 5,442 5,478 5,498 5,522 5, ,938 1,883 1,912 1,931 1,945 1,961 1,983 1,998 2,007 2,018 2, ,000 1,015 1,024 1,030 1,038 1,045 1,050 1,054 2,587 2,795 2,883 2,930 2,960 2,985 3,012 3,035 3,052 3,068 3, ,000 1,015 1,024 1,030 1,038 1,045 1,050 1,054 1,058 1,451 1,518 1,559 1,588 1,612 1,616 1,625 1,631 1,632 1,631 1,630 1,126 1,268 1,314 1,333 1,339 1,359 1,378 1,395 1,411 1,428 1, Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization ,151 1,171 1,191 1,207 1,226 1,251 1,276 1,297 1,318 1,342 1, ,457 1,484 1,506 1,524 1,544 1,569 1,595 1,617 1,640 1,665 1,692-1,097-1,053-1,069-1,083-1,100-1,123-1,146-1,167-1,186-1,209-1,

9 World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook / 287 Other European Cotton Supply and Utilization Other CIS Cotton Supply and Utilization 1, Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization

10 288 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization , ,005 1,012 1,018 1,025 1,032 1,039 1,046 1,054 1, Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization 3,201 3,029 3,145 3,186 3,216 3,244 3,284 3,319 3,343 3,362 3, ,504 1,848 1,934 1,975 2,010 2,044 2,086 2,125 2,158 2,188 2, ,946 2,655 2,669 2,708 2,746 2,783 2,826 2,868 2,905 2,939 2,970 2,225 2,262 2,285 2,315 2,351 2,393 2,438 2,485 2,531 2,586 2, ,032 2,997 3,018 3,051 3,091 3,133 3,181 3,233 3,282 3,339 3, Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization

11 World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook / 289 South African Cotton Supply and Utilization South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization

12 290 / World Cotton: FAPRI 2005 Agricultural Outlook Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization ,294 1,283 1,292 1,301 1,309 1,318 1,327 1,336 1,345 1,354 1, , ,231 1,203 1,253 1,272 1,287 1,301 1,318 1,334 1,348 1,360 1,371 1,349 1,391 1,433 1,475 1,516 1,558 1,598 1,636 1,672 1,710 1, ,689 1,740 1,787 1,831 1,875 1,919 1,962 2,002 2,041 2,081 2, Uzbek Cotton Supply and Utilization 1,415 1,356 1,355 1,353 1,349 1,348 1,348 1,347 1,345 1,342 1, , ,002 1,006 1,010 1,013 1, ,284 1,240 1,221 1,213 1,212 1,216 1,223 1,232 1,240 1,248 1,