Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade

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1 Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade June 27, 18 Dr. Edward Yardeni Debbie Johnson Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents World Exports 1-2 World Exports & Production 3-4 World Exports & Real Exports & Imports 5 World Exports & Industrial Production 6 World Exports & International Reserves 7 World Exports & Commodity Prices 8 World Exports: G7 vs ROW 9 G7 Exports 1 G6 Exports 11 Asian Exports 12 Latin American Exports 13 Eastern European Exports 14 Exports & Imports 15 Exports June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

3 World Exports Figure 1. WORLD EXPORTS: VALUE (trillions dollars, sa, 12-month sum, ratio scale) Feb Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Figure 2. WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME) (=, sa, ratio scale) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. 3 Page 1 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

4 World Exports 22 Figure 3. WORLD EXPORTS VALUE & VOLUME Volume of World Exports (CPB) (5=, sa) Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, nsa, annualized) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and International Monetary Fund. 4 3 Figure 4. WORLD EXPORTS (yearly percent change) 4 3 Feb Value of World Exports (IMF) (17.9) Volume of World Exports (CPB) (4.3) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and International Monetary Fund. -4 Page 2 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

5 World Exports & Production Figure 5. WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION Mar Volume of World Exports (CPB) (1=, sa) OECD Total 34 Countries* Production (1=) * Includes OECD Total: All 34 member countries of OECD: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Haver Analytics. Figure 6. WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) Volume of World Exports (CPB) (=4.3) OECD Total 34 Countries* Production (Mar=3.3) * Includes OECD Total: All 34 member countries of OECD: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Haver Analytics. Page 3 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

6 13 1 Figure 7. WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION (ratio scale, sa) World Exports & Production World Production & Exports Production (5=) Export Volume (1=, sa) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. Figure 8. WORLD EXPORTS & PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) World Production & Exports Production (=3.9) Export Volume (=4.3) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. -3 Page 4 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

7 13 Figure 9. World Exports & Real Exports & Imports ISM MANUFACTURING & WORLD TRADE ISM Manufacturing: New Exports Orders + Imports (sa) (19.7) -1 8 US Real Merchandise Exports + Imports (yearly percent change) (5.9) Source: Institute of Supply Management and Census Bureau Figure 1. ISM MANUFACTURING & WORLD TRADE ISM Manufacturing: New Exports Orders + Imports (sa) (19.7) -1 8 World Exports Volume (yearly percent change) (4.3) Source: Institute of Supply Management and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. -3 Page 5 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

8 World Exports & Industrial Production Figure 11. WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME & REAL EXPORTS & IMPORTS (=, sa, ratio scale) World Exports: Volume (=, sa) US Industrial Production (12=, sa) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 12. WORLD EXPORTS (VOLUME) & US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) World Exports (Volume) (=4.3) US Industrial Production (=3.5) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Bureau of Economic Analysis Page 6 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

9 Figure 13. World Exports & International Reserves WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME (yearly percent change) Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. -3 Figure 14. WORLD EXPORTS & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change) Value of World Exports* (12.4) Non-Gold International Reserves (6.5) * Yearly percent change in 12-month average. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Page 7 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

10 World Exports & Commodity Prices 65 Figure 15. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) Feb 6/ * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. 65 Figure 16. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Volume of World Exports (5=, sa) 6/ * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. Page 8 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

11 World Exports: G7 vs ROW 16 Figure 17. WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD (trillion dollars, annualized) Rest of World (nsa) Feb G7 (sa) Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics Figure 18. WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD (percent of total world exports using 12-month averages) Rest of World Feb G7 35 Feb Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. 25 Page 9 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

12 G7 Exports Figure 19. G7 EXPORTS (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Figure. EXPORTS: G6 vs US (billion dollars, saar) G US Page 1 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

13 G6 Exports 18 1 Figure 23. EXPORTS: G6 (billion dollars, saar) Germany UK France Canada Italy Japan Page 11 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

14 Asian Exports Figure 24. EXPORTS: ASIAN EMs (billion dollars, saar) China Singapore India South Korea Indonesia Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Page 12 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

15 9 8 Figure 25. EXPORTS: LATIN AMERICAN EMs (billion dollars, saar) Latin American Exports Argentina Colombia Brazil Mexico Venezuela 8 Chile Oct Page 13 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

16 Eastern European Exports Figure 26. EXPORTS: EASTERN EUROPEAN EMs (billion dollars, saar) Czech Republic Romania Mar Hungary Russia Poland Ukraine Page 14 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

17 Figure 27. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE* (yearly percent change using dollar values) Exports & Imports 5 5 Imports (26.) Exports (12.6) * Excluding Hong Kong. Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. 4 3 Figure 28. US MERCHANDISE TRADE: EXPORTS & IMPORTS (yearly percent change) Total Exports Imports Source: Census Bureau. -4 Page 15 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

18 Exports 5 4 Figure 29. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions of US dollars, saar) Brazil (=23.9) Mexico (=448.2) Figure 3. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions US dollars, saar) India (=344.3) Indonesia (=.4) Malaysia (=269.4) Thailand (=262.3) Page 16 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

19 Exports 75 7 Figure 31. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions US dollars, saar) Singapore (=43.2) South Korea (=635.4) Taiwan (=312.3) Figure 32. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Germany (=17.3) US (=1722.7) Page 17 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

20 Figure 33. GERMANY: MANUFACTURING ORDERS vs. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1=) Source: Deutsche Bundesbank and Haver Analytics. Exports Manufacturing Orders Manufacturing Production Figure 34. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billion dollars, saar) 8 Canada (=457.7) France (=611.8) Italy (=563.7) Japan (=743.6) UK (=453.9) Page 18 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

21 33 29 Figure 35. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE* (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Exports Total Exports (2527.7) Imports (2283.1) * Excluding Hong Kong. Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. 5 4 Figure 36. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions of US dollars, saar) Brazil (=23.9) Mexico (=448.2) Page 19 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

22 38 34 Figure 37. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions US dollars, saar) Exports India (=344.3) Indonesia (=.4) Malaysia (=269.4) Thailand (=262.3) Figure 38. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (billions US dollars, saar) Singapore (=43.2) South Korea (=635.4) Taiwan (=312.3) Page / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

23 15 Figure 39. CHINA EXPORTS TO EMERGING MARKETS* (billion dollars, 12-month sum) Exports * Excludes US, EU, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Page 21 / June 27, 18 / Global Economic Briefing: Merchandise Trade www.

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