GHG Emissions and Oil Consumptions from Transportation Sectors in US and China - Current Status and Future Trend

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1 GHG Emissions and Oil Consumptions from Transportation Sectors in US and China - Current Status and Future Trend Transportation Consultant Sustainable Multi-Modal Transportation for Chinese Cities International Seminar October 20-21, 2003 Shanghai, China

2 Outline GHG Emissions from US Transportation Sector Current Transportation Status in China Comparing/Projecting US and China Oil Use and GHG Emission Trends The Role of Motorcycles Conclusions 1

3 In 2000, US is world No. 1 Carbon Emitters, and China is No. 2 U.S. Carbon Emissions by End- Use Sector in one third of carbon emissions is from transportation sector Global Carbon Emissions U.S. Carbon Emissions Rest of World Germany India United States 25% China 11% Japan Russia Transportation 33% Commercial 17% Residential 20% Industry 30%

4 U.S. Transportation Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Mode 62% from automobiles Freight Trucks (16%) Air (9%) Cars and Light Trucks (62%) Buses (1%) Rail (2%) Water (5%) Pipeline (4%) Off-Highway (2%)

5 Carbon Emissions from U.S. Automobiles vs. Nations of the World United States China Russia Japan India Germany United Kingdom Canada Italy France South Korea Ukraine Mexico South Africa Australia Brazil Poland Iran Spain Saudi Arabia The 302 MMTc emitted annually by U.S. automobiles exceeds the total emissions of every other nation except China, Russia and Japan Million Metric Tons of Carbon (MMTc)

6 Contribution from SUVs raised to 25% in 2000 in US - New Fleet Carbon Burden Shares by Major Vehicle Class, % 90% Pickup Trucks 80% 70% 60% Large Cars Vans SUVs 50% Midsize Cars 40% 30% 20% Small Cars 10% 0%

7 Extrapolating based on EIA International Energy Outlook 2003, China would catch up US in overall CO2 emission in 2035 (assuming 3.4% annual growth rate). By then, US + China would contribute 40% of world CO2 Emissions. However, projection for China is highly controversial. 14,000 12,000 10,000 China US US+China World 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Share of world China 12% 13% 14% 15% 17% 18% 19% 20% US 25% 24% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 20%

8 Projections vary greatly, E.g., early EIA projections show that China would catch up US in 2020 (source: LBNL) 2,500 Carbon Emissions from Fossil Energy Use in China and the USA Baselines from Selected Studies and Revised Baseline 2,000 Issues and Options (WB/Jt Study Group, 1994) China Countr (USDOE/SSTC/Tsin Primary Fossil Energy Use (EJ) 1,500 1, USA Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2000) International Energy Outlook (EIA, 2000, 2001) Actual Revised Baseline Projection (LBNL, 2001) En Devel Stra (ER Nation Response S (E-W Ctr/ANL/Tsin endpoint for China Energy and Carbon Scenarios Project

9 China On-road Vehicle Population (million) in while car population is still under 5 millions, rural vehicles and motorcycles dominate. - US definition of Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs) = Cars + Light-Duty Trucks (LDTs). Thus China currently has about 10 million LDVs population, about 5% of US level Vehicle Population in Million Unites Based on US definition Trucks Buses Cars HDVs (w /o mini bus & truck) LDVs (car + mini truck & bus) Rural Vehicles Motorcycles

10 Passenger car population exploded in the past two years, may reaching 8 millions by end of this year. New car sales this year (2003) are projected to be about millions, similar to annual new light-duty vehicle sales in the State of California (2 million), and about 10% of total US light-duty vehicle sale (17 million) 8.0 Passenger Car Population 7.0 Million units

11 If current trend continues, annual new LDV sales in China would reach today s US level (about 17 million units) by China Annaul Light-Duty Vehicle Sales 20.0 Current US Level Million Prior to WTO (9%) Rapid Growth Decade (25%) Cooling off periods (10% & 5%)

12 light-duty vehicle population would reach 100 millions by 2015 and 200 millions (current US level) in China Ligh-Duty Vehicle Population Current US Level 150 Millions

13 Motorcycle population has also been growing rapidly, adding about 5.8 million units per year in the past 5 years Motorcycles Million Units

14 Motorcycle population is likely to reach 100 million by If all motorcycles are replaced by cars, China s light-duty vehicle population would reach 200 million units by 2014 Million Units China Vehicle Population LDVs MCs LDVs + MCs Current US Level

15 1) China On-Road Transportation Oil Consumption in 2000 is about MMT, 10-12% of US level 2) Personal Transport Vehicles Contribute about 31% of total (LDVs 22% + motorcycles 9%) 3) Heavy-duty Vehicles contribute 51% of total Oil Consumptions Share in Transportation, % 51% 42% Oil Consumption Share 40% 30% 20% 10% 21% Based on US definition 22% 10% 18% 9% 0% Trucks Buses Cars HDVs (w /o mini bus & truck) LDVs (car + mini truck & bus) Rural Vehicles Motorcycles

16 Assuming current trend continues, China on-road transportation oil use would reach current US level (~ 600 MMT) by 2025, and reach beyond 800 MMT annually by If all motorcycles are replaced cars, China would catch-up US in on-road transportation oil consumption by 2030 US vs. China Transportation Oil COnsumption Oil Consumption (Million Metric Tons) 1,200 1, Oil MMT US Oil MMT China BAU trend Oil MMT China 6% Current US Level Replace MCs with Cars

17 Based on current trends, annual CO2 emissions would reach 2,000 MMT (current US level) by 2025 US vs. China Transportation CO2 Emissions CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, CO2 MMT US CO2 MMT China BAU trend CO2 MMT China 6% Current US Level Replace MCs with Cars

18 Role of Motorcycles Motorcycles contribute significantly to oil consumption and GHG emissions, currently about 9% of road transportation Motorcycle population is adding about 5.8 million unites per year, and will likely to reach 100 million units by 2010 If all motorcycles are banned and replaced by personal cars, China s total vehicle population will increase significantly The impact on oil dependence and traffic congestion would be significant To promote zero-pollution and low-noise fuel cell scooters in large cities is a smart alternative and suite unique characteristics of many large Chinese cities

19 Commercial Hybrid Vehicles Show Great Gains in Fuel Economy over Theirs Conventional Vehicle Counterparts 80 Fuel Economy MPG "Vertical Leap" Effect MY2000 CVs Priuses & Corolla Civics and Insights Escapes Silverados 20 y = 46030x R 2 = Curb Weight (lb)

20 Hybrid Vehicle Efficiencies vs. Conventional Vehicle Efficiencies 40% SI ICE Thermal Efficiency Limit - 38% 35% 35% Vehicle (TTW) Efficiency 30% 25% 20% Prior to 04 Prius Efficiency Limit - 30% 21% 19% 23% 28% 26% 23% Honda MHVs 33% 29% 25% Prius (& Escape) FHVs 17% CVs 15% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Fraction of Electric Power

21 Options to curb GHG emissions from transportation sector land-use planning to minimize dependence on personal motor vehicles Promote public transportation, such as BRT and subways Promote and encourage the development and marketing high energy-efficient, small, safe and clean personal cars Promote hybrid-electric vehicles Avoid mistakes of SUVs in US Improve efficiencies of rural vehicles and trucks/buses R&D on fuel cell powertrains Promote fuel cell scooters

22 China s Choice: SUVs vs. Eco-Small Hybrid Cars & FC Scootors General Motors Hummer SUV Toyota Prius Hybrid Electric Car ZES III (Zero Emission Scooter 3 rd generation) - European Model