Resilience and society: energy infrastructure, 26th April, Northumbria University.

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Sharlene Cain
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1 Electricity sector resilience Sara Walker

2 What s the big deal? 1. GROWTH in world energy consumption 2. Climate Change Global: UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and the most recent COP17 Europe: UK: Climate Change Act 2008, 30% of UK electricity it from renewable energy sources by Security of OPEC supply Trans European energy networks UK growth in imports

3 What s the big deal? 3. Securityof Oil net exporters (2009) supply Saudi Arabia Russian Federation Islamic Republic of Iran Nigeria United Arab Emirates Iraq Angola Norway Venezuela Kuwait Others

4 What s the big deal? 3. Securityof supply Gas net exporters (2010) Russian Federation Norway Qatar Canada Algeria Indonesia Netherlands Malaysia Turkmenistan Nigeria Others

5 What s the big deal? 3. Securityof supply Coal net exporters (2010) Australia Indonesia Russian Federation Colombia South Africa United States Kazakhstan Canada Vietnam Mongolia Others

6 What s the big deal? 3. Securityof supply Source: DECC (2011) UK Energy in Brief. London: DECC.

7 What s the big deal? 4. Ageing infrastructure Closing of at least 22GW (about a quarter of generating capacity) by billion infrastructure investment by National Grid through Electricity Alliance,

8 What s the big deal? 4. Ageing infrastructure UKinstalledelectricitygeneration electricity capacity (MW) d plant capacity UK installe Renewables other than hydro and wind Wind Pumped storage Natural flow Gas turbines and oil engines Nuclear stations Combined cycle gas turbine stations Conventional steam stations Year

9 What s the big deal? 4. Ageing infrastructure Capital expenditure (actual and allowance) for all GB distribution network operators. Capital expe enditure ( m equivalent) ) Year allowance expenditure

10 What s the big deal? 4. Ageing infrastructure Capital expenditure (actual) for all GB Transmission System Owners Capital expend diture ( m) Year NGET SPT SHETL

11 Where are we now regarding security? 1. Capacity margins General target 20% Fell to 16.5% in 2003/04 16% in 2009 Predicted to fall as low as 5% in 2020 under BAU

12 Where are we now regarding security? 2. Network performance N 1 and Security and Quality of Supply Standards Customer Interruptions (CIs) and Customer Minutes Lost (CMLs)

13 Where are we now regarding security? 2. Network performance: Percentage of CI at a given network voltage level, one Distribution Network Operator.

14 Where are we now regarding security? 2. Network performance: Percentage of CML at a given network voltage level, one Distribution Network Operator.

15 Where are we now regarding security? 3. Diversity Herfindahl Hirschmann index (mean=3029 for UK ) HHI I = i= 1 2 p i Shanon Weiner index (mean=1.40 for UK ) SW = p ( ) i Ln p i I i= 1

16 Where are we now regarding security? 4. Terrorism Threat of terrorist attack on critical infrastructure 1.5% of world terrorist incidents from 1998 to 2007 had targeted energy infrastructure UK priority risks are international terrorism, cyber attack, major accident or natural hazard, and an international ti military crisis ii

17 What can resilience bring to the table? 1. A new definition of a healthy system. Following the occurrence of a secured event on the onshore transmission system, measures shall be taken to re secure the system to the above operational criteria as soon as reasonably practicable. (National Grid, 2011) The system s ability to reduce efficiently i both ththe magnitude and duration of deviation from target system performance levels. (Vugrin et al, 2011) The perception is the need to maintain the status quo. The system performance measures become the goal.

18 What can resilience bring to the table? Resilience as a concept accepts that a system may, following short term shock or long term stress, move to a new equilibrium. Ecology type view ofresilience resilience. Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks Walker et al, 2004

19 What can resilience bring to the table?

20 What can resilience bring to the table? 2. Flexibility of scale Capacity margins, N 1 performance, customer interruptions, customer minutes lost, diversity measures and terrorism risks focus primarily on the hardware of a system and security of SUPPLY. Resilience based around a socio technical scenario approach can encompass a richer scale, including the landscape within which the system sits, linkages to other systems, the system personnel, system users, system processes, as well as system hardware and software.

21 What can resilience bring to the table? 2. Flexibility of scale Source:DECC

22 What can resilience bring to the table? 3. Resilience of what and for whom? Power relations Electricity consumption per capita, 2009 Cultural values Equity 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20, ,000 Per capita electricity consumption (kwh) Benin Sudan Kenya Ghana Sri Lanka Morocco Iraq Mexico Brazil China Venezuela Chile Libya South Africa UK Russia Israel Germany Saudi Arabia France Japan Bahrain New Zealand Australia USA Sweden Qatar Canada Kuwait Iceland Country

23 In summary Previous measures of security have been supply side focussed Capacity margins, N 1 system performance, customer interruptions, customer minutes lost, and Shannon Weiner type indices allfocus onsupply and the wires sections of the electricity sector Resilience as a concept allows us to rethink the definition of a working electricity sector, to consider the context within which the system sits, and to better understand the context of power, culture and equity which frames the scope of human action

24 Sara Walker ac uk Tel 44 (0) twitter.com/sarawalker22 com/pub/sara walker/19/286/b23

Primary energy. 8 Consumption 9 Consumption by fuel. 67 th edition

Primary energy. 8 Consumption 9 Consumption by fuel. 67 th edition Primary energy 8 Consumption 9 Consumption by fuel 67 th edition Primary energy Consumption* Growth rate per annum Million tonnes oil equivalent 27 28 29 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 217 26-16 Share 217