Energy Efficiency: An engine for growth and development. Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division, IEA 8 June 2015

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1 Energy Efficiency: An engine for growth and development Philippe Benoit Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division, IEA 8 June 2015

2 EE: an important role?

3 Energy efficiency can help drive economic prosperity 4% GDP in Efficient World Scenario versus New Policies Scenario, % 2% 1% Japan & Korea OECD Europe United States China India Cumulative investments in energy efficiency of $12 trillion are more than offset by fuel savings & trigger economic growth of a cumulative $18 trillion OECD/IEA 2012

4 EE: Big, invisible and ignored

5 IEA fuel market reports

6 EE: Inputs - Investments

7 Frequency Global Energy Efficiency Market Estimated to be between USD billion/yr 250 Monte Carlo: Distribution of energy efficiency market estimation >600 USD Billion Signals point to further growth

8 USD billion EE vs other supply (2011) Estimated range of USD 147 to 300 billion 0 Sources: BNEF, IEA IEA EEMR 2013 Upstream oil and gas * Coal, oil and gas electricity generation *** Renewable electricity generation ** Energy efficiency (2012) R s

9 EE s untapped A potential Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the WEO 2012 New Policies Scenario 100% 80% 60% Unrealised energy efficiency potential Realised energy efficiency potential 40% 20% Industry Transport Power generation Buildings

10 EE: Outputs

11 Facing up to the Fuels Competition EE keeps producing : 1999 Energy Efficiency

12 Mtoe EE: Big part of energy landscape TFC fuels (IEA-11) incl. EE savings Output - Energy efficiency: the first fuel Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency improvements Savings Oil Gas Total Final Consumption Coal Electricity Other *IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States

13 Mtoe Energy efficiency: the first fuel Supplied (1336 Mtoe) more in 2011 to meet energy service demand than oil (1200 Mtoe), electricity (552 Mtoe), natural gas (509 Mtoe) in IEA-11* Total final consumption of fuels and energy savings from energy efficiency in 11 IEA countries in TFC 0 Oil Gas Coal Electricity Other Efficiency savings *IEA-11: Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States

14 Mtoe EE: an invisible power-house Energy efficiency savings in IEA-11 countries rival TFC of major energy consuming countries and regions (e.g., EE improvements over the last 4 decades saved more energy in 2011 than TFC in EU) TFC Energy efficiency savings of 11 IEA member countries Asia (excluding China) China EU United States

15 EE: Looking beyond savings to raising standards of living

16 EE: Looking beyond savings to raising standards of living

17 EU looks to EE to reduce primary energy consumption

18 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS GDP (right axis)

19 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS GDP (right axis)

20 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS GDP (right axis)

21 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS BAU-Low EE GDP (right axis)

22 Mtoe USD Billions 2005 PPP Decoupling GDP from Energy TPES 6DS BAU-Low EE 4DS 2DS High Productivity GDP (right axis)

23 Energy efficiency for many emerging economies: from doing more with less to to doing even more with more

24 Energy efficiency for many emerging economies: from doing more with less to doing even more with more

25 Billion pkm Billion tkm Transport: a shift in geography Incremental transport demand estimated to come from non- OECD: source for demand translates into EE market opportunity Passenger Freight OECD Non-OECD World Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA

26 Shifting mobility demand growth Personal passenger light vehicles: Drivers of demand Developed economies Structural effect Developing regions Income effect Sources: elaboration of national and international databases, building on the information referenced in UNECE, 2012

27 Shifting mobility demand growth Passenger vehicle growth to 2050 (6DS) Source: IEA Mobility Model Large projected increase in non-oecd countries

28 km/lge Transport: Broad use of vehicle fuel economy standards Vehicle fuel economy standards (VFE) affect 70% of global new vehicle fleet (50 million vehicles in 2011) Standards could achieve between USD 40 and 190 billion in fuel savings by 2020 pending ambition and effectiveness Enacted fuel economy standards for personal vehicles Source: Global fuel economy initiative European Union Japan India China Korea United States Mexico Canada

29 EE: multiple benefits for emerging economies and others

30 Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE

31 Energy efficiency is... a domestic fuel ( the home-grown fuel ) Microsoft.com

32 Impact of EE improvements since 1990 Total EE savings = 196 Mtoe Other Savings, Other 97 TFC for USA (2012) Electricity, 321 Electricity, 321 Oil, 719 Oil, 719 Natural gas, 296 Natural gas, 296 Total TFC = 1,432 Mtoe Total TFC (EE adjusted)= 1,629 Mtoe

33 Other 97 TFC for USA (2012) Electricity, 321 Oil, 719 Natural gas, 296 Total TFC = 1,432 Mtoe

34 Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE

35 Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions Gt CO Nuclear 7% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% Renewables 30% End-use fuel switching 9% CCS 14% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

36 Portfolio of actions to reduce energy sector emissions EE provides largest contribution to abatement Gt CO Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

37 Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE

38 Dirty air prompts free public transport in Paris Public transportation in the capital will be "gratuit" from Friday morning to Sunday night, as officials battle against a spike in "dangerously" poor air quality. Velib' rental bikes and the car-sharing Autolib' scheme are also on the house. Shifting to more efficient transport to fight air pollution March 11, 2014 Credit: Patrick Kovarik AFP

39 Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE

40 EE Important for developing countries Energy access Economic development Poverty alleviation Combatting local pollution Climate change resilience Helping countries to expand access, effectively enabling them to supply power to more people through the existing energy infrastructure. Supporting economic growth through various aggregate benefits, for example by improving industrial productivity and reducing fuel import bills. Increasing the affordability of energy services for poorer families by reducing the per-unit cost of lighting, heating, refrigeration and other services. Reducing the need for energy generation and lower associated emissions through energy efficiency measures on both supply side and demand side. Reducing the need for energy infrastructure, energy efficiency reduces the amount of energy assets exposed to extreme weather events. Multiple benefits are of particular importance for emerging economies and developing countries

41 Designing analytic tools: motivation counts

42 What about where reducing energy consumption is less important than raising standards of living?

43 GJ/occupied dwelling Australia Austria Canada Czech Republic Developing country context may require adjustment to metrics Finland France Germany GJ/m² Greece Italy Japan Australia Korea Austria Netherlands Canada New Zealand Czech Spain Finland Sweden France Switzerland Germany United Kingdom Italy United States Ireland Korea Netherl New Slovak Spain Sweden Switzer United United 0.07 Residential lighting intensity Residential energy intensity of water 0.03 heating

44 Energy intensity to Energy productivity

45 Some conclusions Energy Efficiency is a strong and sound tool to promote growth and development

46 Some conclusions but Energy Efficiency: is under-appreciated is under-utilized requires more analysis, understanding and support to produce its multiple benefits. This E4 training week is part of the effort

47 Thank You

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