Projections of global emissions of air pollutants

Transcription

1 M. Amann, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Projections of global emissions of air pollutants TFHT Workshop on Emission Inventories and Projections Beijing, October 18-2, 26

2 Current legislation projections of EU-25 emissions (CAFE and NEC analyses, EU-25, relative to the levels) 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5 CAFE baseline National energy projections

3 Per-capita NO x emissions, North America, kg NOx/capita 5 FSU Europe, East Asia South Asia Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP

4 Approach for emission projections Using global version of the GAINS/RAINS model Emission projections based on National projections of activity data Local emission factors Implementation of emission control measures Sources of activity data projections: Europe: RAINS/GAINS Europe national projections Asia: RAINS Asia national projections Russia: National data North America: National studies Other continents: IPCC SRES B2 scenario

5 Presentation of results Driving forces Resulting emission projections Main uncertainties Three groups of countries: OECD (Europe, North America, Japan, Australia) Asia Rest of world (Russia, Latin America, Africa) Graphs use same scale for all regions

6 Driving forces for emissions: Population (Governmental and UN projections) OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)

7 Driving forces for emissions: Population, GDP (PPP) (Governmental projections) OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)

8 Driving forces: Population, GDP (PPP) and energy demand OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)

9 Resulting projection of CO 2 emissions [Mt CO 2 ] OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)

10 Global CO 2 emissions resulting from the collected national activity projections Mt CO OECD Asia Rest of world

11 Emission standards for gasoline vehicles Current legislation (as of early 25) 21 Source: IIASA, Cofala et al., 25

12 Current legislation projection of NO x emissions [Mt NO x ] OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)

13 Global NO x emissions by world region [Mt NO x ] 9 8 Latin America+ Africa Other northern hemisphere South Asia East Asia 3 2 FSU Europe North America

14 Per-capita NO x emissions, Latin America+ Africa North America kg NOx/capita 5 FSU Europe 25 East Asia South Asia Other NH Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP

15 Per-capita NO x emissions, North America kg NOx/capita FSU 23 Europe East Asia South Asia Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP

16 Current legislation projection of SO 2 emissions [Mt SO 2 ] OECD Asia Rest of world Population (mio) GDP in PPP, 1 bn $/yr Energy use (1 PJ)

17 Global SO 2 emissions by world region [Mt SO 2 ] Latin America+ Africa 1 Other northern hemisphere 8 South Asia 6 East Asia 4 FSU Europe 2 North America

18 Per-capita SO 2 emissions, North America, kg SO2/capita 5 FSU, 199 Europe, East Asia South Asia Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP

19 Projections of per-capita SO 2 emissions, Latin America+ Africa North America 75 kg SO2/capita 5 FSU Europe 25 East Asia South Asia Other NH Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP

20 Per-capita SO 2 emissions, North America 1 kg SO2/capita South Asia FSU East Asia Europe Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP 23

21 Projections of CH 4 and BC emissions [Mt] CH Black carbon OECD 9 Russia Asia Africa and Latin America OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Africa and Latin America

22 Key uncertainties in emission projections Enforcement of existing legislation Economic projections Further tightening of air quality legislation

23 Potential for further emission controls from existing end-of-pipe technologies [Mt] NO x SO 2 Black carbon OECD Asia Former Soviet Union Africa and Latin America Maximum technically feasible reduction

24 Key uncertainties in emission projections Enforcement of existing legislation Economic projections Further tightening of air quality legislation Future policies on CO 2 mitigation

25 Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO 2 mitigation GAINS estimates for EU-25, 22 12% Air pollutant emissions relative to a case 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 9 CAFE BL 2 National NEC projections 6% 75% 8% 85% 9% 95% 1% 15% CO 2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions SO2 NOx PM25

26 Summary For current expectations on economic development and legislation Per-capita emissions of NO x, SO 2, PM: In OECD declining In developing countries ~ stabilizing, at a low level! Total emissions up to 23: In OECD declining In developing countries: increasing Globally: NO x stabilizing SO 2, PM declining But CO 2, CH 4 increasing

27 Conclusions Despite (because?) of high pollution concentration levels (e.g., in urban areas), developing countries are not likely to repeat high per-capita levels of air pollutant emissions that have occurred in OECD countries. But no trend reversal for GHG emissions in sight Key uncertainties: Enforcement of legislation Further measures Future climate policies